2017 trading, drafting, list management

[S.S. Bleeder]

Hasn't Derek Hine been their chief recruiter for some time?

He's been in charge of list management for a decade or more but not recruiting. If you recall, Buckley blamed the recruitment of Mayne (and maybe Wells) on the fact that that they had a stand in recruitment manager at the club last year?

[707]

AFL.com write up on our top 5 Academy prospects for next year

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-11-29/2018-academy-players-to-keep-an-eye-on

[stevoswan]

Interesting article here: Adelaide's 2018 list is one for the ages - AFL.com.au regarding the average age of each club's list, we are middlish but what I found more interesting was the 'summary' chart at the bottom of the article with the extreme right column titled "Players from other Clubs". The overall average was 10 on each club's list are from another club. Carlton had the most at 19! Others were Adelaide 10, Geelong 10, Hawthorn 11, Port Adelaide 13, Tigers 8. The Swans.....4, the club with the least number of players from other clubs. Gee, we're bloody good!

[jren]

What happened to an indigenous kid called Shayden Close who was highly rated as a junior ?

[liz]

What happened to an indigenous kid called Shayden Close who was highly rated as a junior ?

He played at U16 level last season (ie 2016), which means that the earliest he could be eligible to be drafted is 2018. He might be younger than that - ie he could have been playing in the U16 team as a 15 year old.

Maybe one those posters in the know about the academy prospects could update us on the next crop coming through, beyond Blakey. The "five to watch" list provided by the AFL website contained a majority of players who will be overage next year (ie they were eligible to be drafted in last week's draft).

[707]

He played at U16 level last season (ie 2016), which means that the earliest he could be eligible to be drafted is 2018. He might be younger than that - ie he could have been playing in the U16 team as a 15 year old.

Maybe one those posters in the know about the academy prospects could update us on the next crop coming through, beyond Blakey. The "five to watch" list provided by the AFL website contained a majority of players who will be overage next year (ie they were eligible to be drafted in last week's draft).

Means that next years crop, other than Blakey, is thin. Looks like Heeney and Mills really were outliers.

[rb4x]

The greatest stat is that Sydney have 303 games of finals experience. Next closest is Geelong with 209. We have easily the most finals experience now just need to win more of the big one. 2018 list looks pretty good at this stage. Do we know who might be in doubt for round 1 because of injury etc. I only know of Tippett with his surgery on both ankles yet the club say he should be good to go for round 1. Anyone else?

[liz]

Means that next years crop, other than Blakey, is thin. Looks like Heeney and Mills really were outliers.

Or it means that whoever wrote the AFL piece didn't dig very deep. I don't know which is the correct answer.

It's also worth bearing in mind, however, than players' prospects can change drastically in their final year of U18 footy (and for some players, when they are post minimum draft age). Coming into his final year at U18 level, Heeney was seen as draftable but most likely as a second round pick. By early in that final season, he'd elevated himself to a top 10 talent.

[barracuda]

Or it means that whoever wrote the AFL piece didn't dig very deep. I don't know which is the correct answer.


It's also worth bearing in mind, however, than players' prospects can change drastically in their final year of U18 footy (and for some players, when they are post minimum draft age). Coming into his final year at U18 level, Heeney was seen as draftable but most likely as a second round pick. By early in that final season, he'd elevated himself to a top 10 talent.

Hardman is basically an under 18 not an under 19. I think his birthday is right on the cutoff.

He is a bit of one trick pony, but that one trick which is crumbing at speed is awesome. This year he needs to find some other tricks. Also he is small and in his neafl and Sydney premier league games was too easily pushed aside. If he can attend to these things he has draft potential.

Overall he is still developing and is correctly considered a top academy prospect.

Wicks is similar in that his physical growth has been late. He only started growing last year and took everyone by surprise particularly in the neafl where he was argueably the best academy top up.

His late improvement meant the allies overlooked him (Queensland based selectors) which was clearly a mistake. That also meant the recruiters missed seeing him play under 18s. On that basis he will play allies this year to enable recruiters to see him. That is pretty standard for kids in his position.

Accordingly there are good reasons for these two being named and properly considered academy prospects.

Carroll I am not so sure. He was fully developed last year, and played allies. So recruiters got a look at him and made their decision. I can?t see any factors that indicate this could change.

[wolftone57]

I think that even though the trade ban made us angry at the time it may have done us a favour. Since 2014 the only two players traded into the club are Callum Sinclair, a swap for Jetts, and Michael Talia. Otherwise we have drafted youth. This has paid off already as we have blooded 19 recruits with only 5 players leaving the club in that time. The youth policy is paying off bit by bit. Think about it, 19 young players have played AFL footy in three years at the Swans. That must be some sort of record.

The coaching staff are already thinking beyond 2018, even beyond Buddy. Drafting tall forwards, looking at height, outside run and impact players, like Dawson.

The Class of 2014

Defenders, in the Rookie draft, Newman & Melican, both of whom are regular Senior players now,

Inside Mid: Heens and Foote

Outside Mid: Hiscox

KPP: Davis

Medium Forward: Rose

Ruckman: McLaren

The only 3 out of 8 were failures but given McLaren was a project ruckman really two. The rest are still at the club with a chance of playing AFL footy and have played a combined total of 109 games already, mind you Heens has 60 of those.

The Class of2015

Defenders: Sam Murray (utility but played defence) O'Riordan

Inside Mids: Mills

Outside Mids: Leonardis

Forwards: Dawson & Papley

Ruck: Galloway

We downgraded Marsh to a rookie, he has since been reinstated on the Senior list. Leonardis was a fail and Galloway was the typical development ruck and as with McLaren he didn't come on. Not counting Marsh this years crop have played 87 games. I believe Dawson will play many more than his 1 game and believe this draft to be very successful. Outside run at this time was a problem as Leonardis and before him Hiscox did not develop as hoped. Murray left for more rewards at Collingwood.

The Class of 2016

Defenders: Maibaum

Inside Mids: Ronke (inside/outside & forward. Might be moved to the back line in 2018), Fox

Outside Mids: Edwards (played both in and out & forward), Florent

Forwards: Pink, Hayward

Ruck: Cameron

A total of 29 games has been played by this class. So far all indications are that this was a very good draft. Florent, Hayward and Fox all played senior footy and played reasonably well. Cameron was struck down with injury but looks very composed and should play senior footy. Ronke could very easily end up in the back pocket since Murray has left. He has all the traits to make a very good back pocket, he's tough, fast, great tackler, never gives up and is a good contested mark. Shaun Edwards was a sad loss as I think he was just starting to show his potential. Toby Pink was always going to be a project player but has already shown glimpses of what he can do. He is very mobile and super quick for a lad his size. He could end up a huge mid, in the back line or our next utility cum 'I've Been Everywhere Man'. Maibaum has impressed with his ability to shut all the top NEAFL forwards down, including a game on Jonathon Patton who kicked three in the first half but was totally shut down after half time. All in all the players from this draft look very good and announce a very real regeneration at the Swans.

The Class of 2017

Defender/Outside Mids: Ling, Stoddart, Styles

Defender Inside mids: Brown, Bell (although both lads can play outside too)

KPP: McCartin

Ruck: Amartey

This is an interesting crop of lads. The thing about this draft is speed, speed, speed. Disposal skills were seen as a negative in some of our current senior players. We have been addressing this for at least three drafts now. But the last two drafts have brought to the club players who all have a high level of disposal skill. Other than Jake Brown, who sometimes lets himself down with his disposal all these players are silky smooth at junior level. If Jake works with the skills coaches and practices on his own he will develop as well. The potential of this draft intake is huge. But what it announces is the Swans are looking to the next ten years not just next year.


The regeneration of the Swans list is almost complete. In the next year two of our longest serving players will probably retire. Keiren Jack and Jarrad McVeigh may well retire at the end of the season. Reg is getting close, probably two left, so is Smithy, probably two as well as Reg. This will announce the total regeneration of the list with only AJ, if he manages to recover his form, Parksie,Reid & Hannas as the only players from 2012 and they were all very young when they played in the GF.

This list, on paper, is extremely strong. The youth bring us to 8th on the table in terms of age. Next year that will be even lower. But what we are doing is getting good experience into our young players. I'll guarantee you that in 2018 we will blood more than one young player. I think most of the new crop will get a call up sooner or later in the season. Maibaum, O'Riordan, Dawson (adding to his one game), Cameron will all play at least one game. Ling and Stoddart are likely to play as well. I believe the coaches will continue to blood players. They will have the mindset that getting games into young players can only benefit the club in the long run and a player who has confidence at the level can be brought into the side if the need is there. Take The Hawks and Dermie playing in his first final and kicking heaps of goals.

Our game style has to change. The style of the game is moving on. We need to be innovative. I do agree that it is a simple game in it's most basic state but in today's AFL every side has to be inventive to keep pace. Take 2011 when Longmire, in the last half of the season, got slingshot going. It stunned the opposition. Again we have to come up with a style of game that stuns the opposition.

The drafting of all these quick, good disposers tells me the game plan is about to change big time. It needs to. While we have been making finals, we have made them on the pure ability of our list rather than the efficacy of the game plan. But taking the one step further to being top dog seems to be beyond our ability and way beyond the game plan. The very good coaches have us worked out. The other problem is Longmire doesn't seem to be able to get our players to change the momentum once the opponent get it. He seems to run out of ideas. I don't know if this is a problem of his rigidity or if it is the regimented type of player we have drafted in the past to fit into our crash, bash, defend at all costs, bang the ball in long, style.

This style is not a good long term plan as teams just put loose players back and exploit the play at ground level then run off us. This has been talked about ad nauseum in the media. The other thing they talk about is our letting the defence absorb pressure for long periods. This is fraught with danger against good sides. Take the game against the Cats. We were caught out with a lack of height and lost the game before it even started. They exploited our lack of height and our midfield that just hasn't delivered in the way the media keep telling us it delivers. In fact I'd say clearances have been a problem for a couple of seasons now. Hopefully the coaches will address this in the new season. It is much easier to attack out of the centre than to constantly be defending and starting your attack in defence.

I hope our new coaching panel address the problems and deliver a far different game plan and tactical ploys for the new season. Our list is very strong all it needs is the right plan to make it elite. Enjoy your seasons holidays everyone and for the Pagans out there Happy solstice. see you at the Colosseum in September.

[Ludwig]

Good analysis Wolfie.

We can add 2012 and 2013 to the list of good drafts, adding regulars Lloyd, Rampe, Towers, Naismith, Jones, Hewett and probably Aliir in 2018 (plus Tippett in the PSD as well as depth players Marsh and Robinson). So we've been adding regular senior players at a rate of 3 or 4 a year, which is quite good. It shows in the difficulty in picking those final few spots in our best 22. If this year's draft group can produce another 3, the pressure for spots will really be on for some time to come.

There is every indication by the way we drafted that we are ready to make changes to the game plan. It will probably be more a matter of execution of a faster game plan than a change in the game plan itself. I think we've tried to move the ball faster the past couple of years, but didn't quite have the speed and skills to pull it off. As the proportion of quick skillful players increases, we should become more successful in this endeavour.

[Scottee]

I think that even though the trade ban made us angry at the time it may have done us a favour. Since 2014 the only two players traded into the club are Callum Sinclair, a swap for Jetts, and Michael Talia. Otherwise we have drafted youth. This has paid off already as we have blooded 19 recruits with only 5 players leaving the club in that time. The youth policy is paying off bit by bit. Think about it, 19 young players have played AFL footy in three years at the Swans. That must be some sort of record.

Really good post Wolfie,

I very much appreciate your well researched, passionate and knowledgeable posts.

Hmmmm, Toby as a midfielder, what an idea, might just work!

Thanks

Sent from my SM-T805Y using Tapatalk

[wolftone57]

Good analysis Wolfie.

We can add 2012 and 2013 to the list of good drafts, adding regulars Lloyd, Rampe, Towers, Naismith, Jones, Hewett and probably Aliir in 2018 (plus Tippett in the PSD as well as depth players Marsh and Robinson). So we've been adding regular senior players at a rate of 3 or 4 a year, which is quite good. It shows in the difficulty in picking those final few spots in our best 22. If this year's draft group can produce another 3, the pressure for spots will really be on for some time to come.

There is every indication by the way we drafted that we are ready to make changes to the game plan. It will probably be more a matter of execution of a faster game plan than a change in the game plan itself. I think we've tried to move the ball faster the past couple of years, but didn't quite have the speed and skills to pull it off. As the proportion of quick skillful players increases, we should become more successful in this endeavour.

Thank you Ludwig, I agree entirely. We are on the precipice. But one thing I think will change is. with so many players who can kick long streaming passes and or hit up targets in any spot on the ground, our direct kicking and leading. Instead of the long bomb that just comes back out we now have a large group of players who can hit targets at will. I think this will change the whole way our players approach the game and the way the coaches set up. There will be more confidence in the man down field to kick accurately.

- - - Updated - - -

Really good post Wolfie,

I very much appreciate your well researched, passionate and knowledgeable posts.

Hmmmm, Toby as a midfielder, what an idea, might just work!

Thanks

Sent from my SM-T805Y using Tapatalk

The Toby in the mids one was a bit out of left field but why not? He's played ruck and in the U18's he got a lot of clearances himself and ran off. So why not try him? Can't do any harm. If it doesn't work out try something else. In fact the reserves are going to need another big mid this year as I believe Dawson will start the season in the Seniors.

[longmile]

The greatest stat is that Sydney have 303 games of finals experience. Next closest is Geelong with 209. We have easily the most finals experience now just need to win more of the big one. 2018 list looks pretty good at this stage. Do we know who might be in doubt for round 1 because of injury etc. I only know of Tippett with his surgery on both ankles yet the club say he should be good to go for round 1. Anyone else?

You missed Hawthorn with 265!

[S.S. Bleeder]

He played at U16 level last season (ie 2016), which means that the earliest he could be eligible to be drafted is 2018. He might be younger than that - ie he could have been playing in the U16 team as a 15 year old.

Maybe one those posters in the know about the academy prospects could update us on the next crop coming through, beyond Blakey. The "five to watch" list provided by the AFL website contained a majority of players who will be overage next year (ie they were eligible to be drafted in last week's draft).

I was under the impression that he went back to league/Union.