Finals

[Thunder Shaker]

Meanwhile, FoxFooty is coming out with these bizzarro projections: The Run Home: Every AFL?s club remaining fixture analysed after Round 14, predicted ladder, finals series | Fox Sports. Very rose coloured glasses in the case of the Swans. Despite rating our fixture the 5th most difficult and saying that teams in our position only have a 32.3% of making top 8, they are tipping us to only drop one more match for the season and finish 14-8 (along with five (5!) other teams) and finish 5th on percentage. Was it only last week they projected us optimistically finishing I think was it 8th? Yet, on the back of us scraping in over Essendon now we are up to 5th. Enjoy these forecasts with your magic mushrooms. If we beat the Dees let's see what they say next week.

GWS to win every game? Not with their injury list.

I also think out form is a bit overstated as well. We've won 6 out of 7 but the highest-ranked team we've played is Richmond. We have Adelaide, Geelong, GWS and Melbourne (all away) to come, and that's not likely to produce three wins. And our only loss to GWS? Again, not with their injury list. If we were to lose only one game, GWS is not the team most likely to beat us.

[Thunder Shaker]

I've rolled out the Monte Carlo simulation again, to produce projected results that IMO are a little more plausible than Fox Footy.

We end up eighth.

Rest of the season:

Adelaide          9-0
Brisbane Lions    0-9
Carlton Blues     2-7
Collingwood       4-5
Essendon          8-1
Fremantle         0-9
Geelong           5-4
Gold Coast Suns   2-7
GWS Giants        7-2
Hawthorn          1-8
Melbourne         7-2
North Melbourne   5-4
Port Adelaide     8-1
Richmond          6-3
St Kilda          1-8
Sydney Swans      7-2 (losses to Melbourne and Adelaide)
Western Bulldogs  4-5
West Coast Eagles 5-4

Ladder:

ADELAIDE CROWS 	  18  4
GWS GIANTS        17  5
PORT ADELAIDE     16  6
MELBOURNE         15  7
GEELONG           14  8
RICHMOND          14  8
ESSENDON          14  8
SYDNEY SWANS      13  9
West Coast Eagles 12 10
Western Bulldogs  11 11
Collingwood       9  13
North Melbourne   9  13
St Kilda Saints   8  14
Gold Coast Suns   7  15
Carlton Blues     7  15
Fremantle Dockers 6  16
Hawthorn          6  16
Brisbane Lions 	  2  20

[Untamed Snark]

I've rolled out the Monte Carlo simulation again, to produce projected results that IMO are a little more plausible than Fox Footy.

We end up eighth.

Rest of the season:

Adelaide          9-0
Brisbane Lions    0-9
Carlton Blues     2-7
Collingwood       4-5
Essendon          8-1
Fremantle         0-9
Geelong           5-4
Gold Coast Suns   2-7
GWS Giants        7-2
Hawthorn          1-8
Melbourne         7-2
North Melbourne   5-4
Port Adelaide     8-1
Richmond          6-3
St Kilda          1-8
Sydney Swans      7-2 (losses to Melbourne and Adelaide)
Western Bulldogs  4-5
West Coast Eagles 5-4

Ladder:

ADELAIDE CROWS 	  18  4
GWS GIANTS        17  5
PORT ADELAIDE     16  6
MELBOURNE         15  7
GEELONG           14  8
RICHMOND          14  8
ESSENDON          14  8
SYDNEY SWANS      13  9
West Coast Eagles 12 10
Western Bulldogs  11 11
Collingwood       9  13
North Melbourne   9  13
St Kilda Saints   8  14
Gold Coast Suns   7  15
Carlton Blues     7  15
Fremantle Dockers 6  16
Hawthorn          6  16
Brisbane Lions 	  2  20

With the start to the season, injuries and whatnot I'd be happy with 8th

[Go Swannies]

I've rolled out the Monte Carlo simulation again, to produce projected results that IMO are a little more plausible than Fox Footy.

We end up eighth.

Rest of the season:

Adelaide          9-0
Brisbane Lions    0-9
Carlton Blues     2-7
Collingwood       4-5
Essendon          8-1
Fremantle         0-9
Geelong           5-4
Gold Coast Suns   2-7
GWS Giants        7-2
Hawthorn          1-8
Melbourne         7-2
North Melbourne   5-4
Port Adelaide     8-1
Richmond          6-3
St Kilda          1-8
Sydney Swans      7-2 (losses to Melbourne and Adelaide)
Western Bulldogs  4-5
West Coast Eagles 5-4

Ladder:

ADELAIDE CROWS       18  4
GWS GIANTS        17  5
PORT ADELAIDE     16  6
MELBOURNE         15  7
GEELONG           14  8
RICHMOND          14  8
ESSENDON          14  8
SYDNEY SWANS      13  9
West Coast Eagles 12 10
Western Bulldogs  11 11
Collingwood       9  13
North Melbourne   9  13
St Kilda Saints   8  14
Gold Coast Suns   7  15
Carlton Blues     7  15
Fremantle Dockers 6  16
Hawthorn          6  16
Brisbane Lions       2  20

With their outs Melbourne on Friday might be 50:50.

[bloodspirit]

I've rolled out the Monte Carlo simulation again, to produce projected results that IMO are a little more plausible than Fox Footy.

We end up eighth.

Rest of the season:

Adelaide          9-0
Brisbane Lions    0-9
Carlton Blues     2-7
Collingwood       4-5
Essendon          8-1
Fremantle         0-9
Geelong           5-4
Gold Coast Suns   2-7
GWS Giants        7-2
Hawthorn          1-8
Melbourne         7-2
North Melbourne   5-4
Port Adelaide     8-1
Richmond          6-3
St Kilda          1-8
Sydney Swans      7-2 (losses to Melbourne and Adelaide)
Western Bulldogs  4-5
West Coast Eagles 5-4

Ladder:

ADELAIDE CROWS 	  18  4
GWS GIANTS        17  5
PORT ADELAIDE     16  6
MELBOURNE         15  7
GEELONG           14  8
RICHMOND          14  8
ESSENDON          14  8
SYDNEY SWANS      13  9
West Coast Eagles 12 10
Western Bulldogs  11 11
Collingwood       9  13
North Melbourne   9  13
St Kilda Saints   8  14
Gold Coast Suns   7  15
Carlton Blues     7  15
Fremantle Dockers 6  16
Hawthorn          6  16
Brisbane Lions 	  2  20

Nice work Thunder Shaker. I agree your results are a little more plausible - but that's not saying much. There are still a lot of eyebrow raising parts to your results. Anyway, if we could lock those in now, I'd happily take it. I daresay the AFL would be happy too. Only sorry it means we wouldn't get a home final at all but that's not likely anyway. Best we'll get is if we play GWS at their home.

[Thunder Shaker]

With their outs Melbourne on Friday might be 50:50.

I agree. The simulation was giving Melbourne only a 55% chance or so, due entirely I think to their home ground advantage.

Nice work Thunder Shaker. I agree your results are a little more plausible - but that's not saying much. There are still a lot of eyebrow raising parts to your results. Anyway, if we could lock those in now, I'd happily take it. I daresay the AFL would be happy too. Only sorry it means we wouldn't get a home final at all but that's not likely anyway. Best we'll get is if we play GWS at their home.

Yes, there were a few interesting results. Fremantle going 0-9 is mostly due to their poor percentage. Essendon going 8-1 is entirely due to their fixture in which they only play one more current top-8 side for the rest of the season (Adelaide).

These are also the aggregates of 10,000 season simulations, and individual simulations can have quite different results (for example, we could end up as high as 3rd by going 9-0 or as low as 15th). The simulations still give non-zero chances for Hawthorn (16th) or North Melbourne (17th) to make the finals. We're running at about 55%.

As for home finals, that's not out of the question. If we end up going 8-1 we could finish sixth, and 9-0 gives us a shot at fourth. I consider these unlikely. I would take eighth after starting 0-6. That would be entirely fitting for such a crazy season.

[707]

8 point games, must beat the sides above you, 8 point games.

We could go 9-0 and end up top 4. Have nearly got our best 22 on the park once we demote Towers and no other team is flying (Crows 3-4 from last 7, Geelong week to week flaky, GWS long injury list) so 9-0 is not impossible!

Must beat everyone above us.

[Ratna]

I suspect if we are going to go 9-0 we must beat everyone below us as well.

While I am optimistic about finals, given we have just gotten over the line in the last few weeks 9-0 will be difficult.

It is amazing the difference it would make to our perceived form and the posts on this forum if the last 2 games had finished a few minutes earlier.

[S.S. Bleeder]

I suspect if we are going to go 9-0 we must beat everyone below us as well.

While I am optimistic about finals, given we have just gotten over the line in the last few weeks 9-0 will be difficult.

It is amazing the difference it would make to our perceived form and the posts on this forum if the last 2 games had finished a few minutes earlier.

It's a fickle game. Had the umpires not screwed us over in the Bulldogs and Collingwood games, and we'd had four players on the interchange against Scumthorn, we'd be equal second on the ladder.

[BRISWAN]

Sorry Bleeder

But if my Aunty was built different?..she'd be my uncle.

It is a fickle game though.

[707]

It is a fickle game, Hawks won 2012, 2013, 2014 Prelims by under a goal, could have easily just had one flag instead of the three peat.

But on the day you just have to outscore your opposition to win, then do it 12-13 more times in a row to win the 2017 flag. It can be done, starts or ends tomorrow night.

[barry]

A nice comfortable win, in melbourne, against another contender, would make finals seem more tangible.

[Markwebbos]

A nice comfortable win, in melbourne, against another contender, would make finals seem more tangible.

Is that a prediction or a prayer?

[dejavoodoo44]

Currently in 7th. To remain in the eight at the end of the weekend, a few things need to happen. Fremantle need to beat St Kilda. The Eagles and the Dogs can have any result except a draw. And Essendon don't get a massive percentage boost against the Lions. Without getting the calculator out, my estimate is that they would need to win by around 90, to sneak above us.

[barry]

Is that a prediction or a prayer?

I'm in.