Finals

[Mug Punter]

Looking at my predictor league I still require us to win three out of five to be sure of finals footy, 12 wins may not be enough.

That makes Hawthorn on Friday must win and that makes me extremely nervous

[monopoly19]

bump

Top 4 surely is starting to enter some minds more now.
At the end of the round we could be out of the 4 only on percentage if Richmond lose, and only a game from third if they win - still with 5 rounds to go.
Win every game and there's a fair chance we'll end up second.

It definitely feels like top 4 is a possibility but then I look at the ladder and see that we're only one win off 11th and suddenly that feels like a (scary) possibility too.

[CureTheSane]

I think we'll beat the cats.

We are one of the few teams who perform well at their ground regularly.

- - - Updated - - -

we're only one win off 11th

shhhhhhhhhh.......

[YvonneH]

What a great season this has been. Nobody knows who will win from week to week. Whatever happens so proud of our club.

[barry]

What a great season this has been. Nobody knows who will win from week to week. Whatever happens so proud of our club.

If the swans had won, say, 3 of the first six games we'd be on top and everyone would be saying it's a one horse race.

[Markwebbos]

Hawthorn has been our nemesis. Particularly at the MCG. Huge game Friday night.

[Blood Fever]

Hawthorn has been our nemesis. Particularly at the MCG. Huge game Friday night.

We have won our last two against them at the MCG. Last year Buddy kicked 2 huge last quarter goals and the year before McVeigh and Parker got us home if my memory serves me correctly.

[Thunder Shaker]

We are one of the few teams who perform well at [Geelong's] ground regularly.

Relatively speaking, anyway. Kardinia Park is a fortress that is rarely breached.

Geelong at Kardinia Park, 2007-2017

Adelaide: 8 wins, 0 losses. (100%)
Brisbane Lions: 8 wins, 0 losses. (100%)
Fremantle: 6 wins, 2 losses. (75%)
Gold Coast: 4 wins, 0 losses. (100%)
GWS Giants: 2 wins, 0 losses. (100%)
Melbourne: 7 wins, 1 loss. (87.5%)
North Melbourne: 5 wins, 1 loss. (83.3%)
Port Adelaide: 7 wins, 1 loss. (87.5%)
Richmond: 4 wins, 0 losses (100%)
St Kilda: 2 wins, 0 losses (100%)
Sydney: 7 wins, 2 losses. (77.8%)
West Coast: 5 wins, 0 losses (100%)
Western Bulldogs: 7 wins, 0 losses (100%)

All teams: 72 wins, 7 losses (91.1%)

[Thunder Shaker]

If the swans had won, say, 3 of the first six games we'd be on top and everyone would be saying it's a one horse race.

We should have beaten Collingwood, Carlton and Hawthorn. Had we done that, we would be second (on percentage), not first, unless our percentage was boosted by a fair bit.

Adelaide are the team to beat right now, but they can be beaten. They have dropped bizarre games: they lost to North Melbourne (59 points) and Carlton (12 points). North Melbourne and Carlton? Really?

They also lost to Geelong at Kardinia Park by 22 points at a venue where they haven't won for 14 years, so this loss is understandable. They also lost at home to Melbourne by 41 points.

[Markwebbos]

We have won our last two against them at the MCG. Last year Buddy kicked 2 huge last quarter goals and the year before McVeigh and Parker got us home if my memory serves me correctly.

I'm sure your memory does serve you correctly. I have a huge scar from 2014.

[Thunder Shaker]

We have won our last two against them at the MCG. Last year Buddy kicked 2 huge last quarter goals and the year before McVeigh and Parker got us home if my memory serves me correctly.

Round 9, 2016: Sydney 10.9 (69) defeated Hawthorn 7.13 (55)
Round 8, 2015: Sydney 11.7 (73) defeated hawthorn 9.15 (69)

We won both games (and the 2012 Grand Final!) because we were accurate in front of goal and Hawthorn were not. In these three games, we won despite having fewer scoring shots.

[ugg]

We should have beaten Collingwood, Carlton and Hawthorn. Had we done that, we would be second (on percentage), not first, unless our percentage was boosted by a fair bit.

Adelaide are the team to beat right now, but they can be beaten. They have dropped bizarre games: they lost to North Melbourne (59 points) and Carlton (12 points). North Melbourne and Carlton? Really?

They also lost to Geelong at Kardinia Park by 22 points at a venue where they haven't won for 14 years, so this loss is understandable. They also lost at home to Melbourne by 41 points.

We had chances to beat Hawthorn and Collingwood but we were never really in the game against Carlton

[Blood Fever]

I'm sure your memory does serve you correctly. I have a huge scar from 2014.

You're not alone MW but we do have a number of young players who weren't part of that. Can count 10 off the top of my head- they're may be more depending on selection.

[CureTheSane]

Relatively speaking, anyway. Kardinia Park is a fortress that is rarely breached.

Geelong at Kardinia Park, 2007-2017

Adelaide: 8 wins, 0 losses. (100%)
Brisbane Lions: 8 wins, 0 losses. (100%)
Fremantle: 6 wins, 2 losses. (75%)
Gold Coast: 4 wins, 0 losses. (100%)
GWS Giants: 2 wins, 0 losses. (100%)
Melbourne: 7 wins, 1 loss. (87.5%)
North Melbourne: 5 wins, 1 loss. (83.3%)
Port Adelaide: 7 wins, 1 loss. (87.5%)
Richmond: 4 wins, 0 losses (100%)
St Kilda: 2 wins, 0 losses (100%)
Sydney: 7 wins, 2 losses. (77.8%)
West Coast: 5 wins, 0 losses (100%)
Western Bulldogs: 7 wins, 0 losses (100%)

All teams: 72 wins, 7 losses (91.1%)

So Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn haven't played at Kardinia for 10 years?

[goswannies]

So Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn haven't played at Kardinia for 10 years?

Actually, no they haven't. Of those teams, the Hawks were the last to play there in 2006 (Hawks won emphatically). Collingwood last played there in 1999 (narrow loss), Carlton in 1997 and Essendon in 1993 (both losses for the away teams).

That has been one for the criticisms of the Kardinia Park fortress myth. They generally play the weaker Melbourne teams or interstate teams (more travelling) ... both of whom pull smaller crowds which suits the then smaller capacity of Skilled Stadium. I've heard the argument that the stronger teams with larger supporter bases will draw larger crowds so the attendance revenue potential is greater in Melbourne.

Concersely, Geelong are more likely to lose playing the stronger teams. Without bothering to look I'd be interested to see how many Geelong "home" fixtures they have lost against Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon & Hawthorn over this period. But playing weaker sides at home helps make your record there look good.