Finals

[Mr Magoo]

Our good percentage means we could theoretically drop three of the last five games and still make the finals with 12 wins. The sides most likely to finish ninth are West Coast, Essendon, Bulldogs and St Kilda, and we're ahead of all them of them on percentage.

The order of the final eight will have several teams separated only by percentage, similar to last year. One extra win could see sides jump four places - it could be that close.

16 key games (involving top 11 sides playing each other):
R.19: Port Adelaide vs St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, vs Essendon.
R.20: Geelong vs Sydney, GWS Giants vs Melbourne, St Kilda vs West Coast, Adelaide vs Port Adelaide.
R.21: Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants, Geelong vs Richmond, Essendon vs Adelaide, Melbourne vs St Kilda.
R.22: Adelaide vs Sydney, Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide, GWS Giants vs West Coast.
R.23: West Coast vs Adelaide, Richmond vs St Kilda, Geelong vs GWS Giants.

Doesnt GWS have an ordinary run home - Melbourne, Dogs, WC, Adelaide

[Thunder Shaker]

Doesnt GWS have an ordinary run home - Melbourne, Dogs, WC, Adelaide

Yes, they do - and there's a fair chance they can drop out of the top four.

The AFL website have got an article with a similar analysis to mine and have included Hawthorn.

Eight-pointers: Clutch games in the final five rounds

For what it's worth, there's also an eight-point game in the final round that may decide the wooden spoon: Brisbane vs North Melbourne.

[KTigers]

I think at some stage GWS are going to wake up from their slumber, and remember who they are, just like we did.

Doesnt GWS have an ordinary run home - Melbourne, Dogs, WC, Adelaide

[MattW]

Doesnt GWS have an ordinary run home - Melbourne, Dogs, WC, Adelaide

Yeah, without Greene (their best player?) for the next two. Trouble. Particularly if Cameron remains injured.

[Billericay]

I think at some stage GWS are going to wake up from their slumber, and remember who they are, just like we did.

Maybe.

I think the drop-off in form of Mummy has a lot to do with their poor results. A couple of years back (2015) they were flying and then Mummy got injured and they barely won another game. I think he might be past it.

[MattW]

Cheers Kangas. Feel a little better.

[Mel_C]

I felt dirty cheering for North Melbourne!

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[liz]

I felt dirty cheering for North Melbourne!

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Me too, but it didn't stop me. I'd actually tipped North to win too, so had a double reason to barrack for them but fully expected them to let me down.

[Markwebbos]

Every little helps

[707]

Eight point games a plenty and the even nature of the comp means we can benefit from a few of these results. I had trouble barracking for Norf but did so with gusto!

We could do with Bombers beating the Dogs to keep them at bay but probably too much to hope for Saints to beat Port in Adelaide.

At least five 8 point games next week including us at Geelong then another four 8 pointers the following week when we play the resurgent Freo at the SCG. Wild ride a coming folks.

[stevoswan]

We could do with Bombers beating the Dogs to keep them at bay but probably too much to hope for Saints to beat Port in Adelaide.

The Saints had Port beaten with two minutes to go after five goals in a row then Port somehow kicked the last two to snatch it. Sheese! Top 4 looking almost out of reach now......unless, Go Suns!!!

[barry]

I think top 4 is out for us now, so we should focus on being fully fit and finishing 5th or 6th.

[Wardy]

Well the dogs did it last year from outside the 4 - we can too (and I really don't want to go to that GF day wedding so cmon swans - just do it!!! )

[Markwebbos]

I think top 4 is out for us now, so we should focus on being fully fit and finishing 5th or 6th.

It's going to be ridiculously tight. And we are up against it to make the 8. If 13 wins is the magic number then we have to win 3 of the last 4. Lose to Geelong and we will have to go to Adelaide and win just to make it.

Top 4 is out of the question. And we seem to have some banged up players now too.

It could well end in tears.

[Boddo]

The finals is my biggest gripe when it comes to the consistency of the mrp. Everyone bar media sycophants & Geelong supporters can see that Dangerfield should get a week but won't because of the Brownlow but it's not the Brownlow I get concerned about when you get one rule for your average joe player n one for the stars it's that it can have a big effect on ladder positions thus effecting finals. If Dangerfield doesn't play we go in favourites and have a very good chance of winning. A win or loss from here on can make a huge difference. Geelong lose n they could easily end up playing port in Adelaide instead of Geelong. And a win gives us half a chance at a top 4 spot.