Finals

[Hotpotato]

Taking It one week at a time.....

Is it safe to predict Giants will account for the Dogs at Etihad (44 pts, same as Swans) and Crows will defeat Essendon at Etihad (4 pts below Swans) and the Swans will take care of freo... to continue the Swans climb up the ladder...

Or are the results still unpredictable?

[DaveyCaper]

Taking It one week at a time.....

Is it safe to predict Giants will account for the Dogs at Etihad (44 pts, same as Swans) and Crows will defeat Essendon at Etihad (4 pts below Swans) and the Swans will take care of freo... to continue the Swans climb up the ladder...

Or are the results still unpredictable?

I don't think anything can be taken for granted in this season!

[ugg]

Taking It one week at a time.....

Is it safe to predict Giants will account for the Dogs at Etihad (44 pts, same as Swans) and Crows will defeat Essendon at Etihad (4 pts below Swans) and the Swans will take care of freo... to continue the Swans climb up the ladder...

Or are the results still unpredictable?

Not sure how the Giants and Crows winning would result in the Swans climbing up the ladder.

[Hotpotato]

Oops, u are correct, I meant them climbing above us .

[Billericay]

I know it's getting ahead of ourselves, but Crows v Swans next week is massive. If the Swans win, then there's every chance we'll be back there again 3 weeks later in finals. A lot on the line for both teams.

[graemed]

I have been listening to a number of fans talking finals and where they would prefer to finish and who are our likely opponents. The discussion is quite premature of course and whilst the games to come are far from certain wins let's hypothesise.

1) Sydney win all 3 remaining games and we fish top 4 ahead of Geelong and Port.

In this scenario we would have one of 3 opponents at either Adelaide Oval (most likely, in this scenario), MCG or either Sydney Showground (most likely), SCG (least likely) or Olympic Stadium (unlikely).

2) Swans win 2/3. Likely finish 5th or 6th. Home final v either Essendon, St Kilda, Port, Geelong, Melbourne, West Coast, Western Bulldogs.

3) Swans win 1/3. Likely finish 7/8 away final against same as above.

4) Swans lose all remaining games. Finish 9th.

Taking the most positive options i.e. Case 1 or 2 which would we prefer?

If we finish top 4 no matter who we play we have the away final but...should we win we get a home prelim.

Surely this far exceeds any advantage we may enjoy with home elimination final.

[KTigers]

Premature? Maybe, but this thread did start on May 23. Really the big question is, when to start booking flights, hotels for Sept 30 in Melbourne?

[Thunder Shaker]

Who plays finals? Who wins the spoon? (afl.com.au)

[neilfws]

Or are the results still unpredictable?

The results are certainly predictable. Which is not the same as getting them right

The last 2 charts in this excellent article summarise our chances of making the 8 and likely ladder positions:

Footy Forensics Statistics Elo rankings update ahead of AFL finals

Win everything, we could go fourth. Disasters could still see us go ninth, but highly unlikely.

[Mel_C]

Bummer .....
was walking past a TAB with my fish n chips and the sods were playing the final 10 mins of the 2016 GF ...
was seduced into watching it even though I was there !!!

Can't believe you did that!! You were brave. I still struggle to watch anything from that game. When Boyd retired this week and they showed footage from the GF I had to turn away.

[Go Swannies]

Who plays finals? Who wins the spoon? (afl.com.au)

Wow, just did that and realised how big the R22 Crows game is. Win that and we should get the double chance. Lose and I show us as needing to beat the Dees, GWS and Adelaide to have the chance to play the Tigers in the GF.

[mcs]

Wow, just did that and realised how big the R22 Crows game is. Win that and we should get the double chance. Lose and I show us as needing to beat the Dees, GWS and Adelaide to have the chance to play the Tigers in the GF.

The Adelaide game is huge in terms of Top 4 potential - but there is no one in the top 8, wherever we finish, that we should truly fear and not see as beatable (GWS at the top of their game is still the standout team, with Adelaide not far behind). Our form over the last 3/4 months of the competition has been excellent (wees and poos games aside).

On form, I think the Premiers is likely to come from GWS, Adelaide, Richmond or Us, irrespective of final finishing position.

Port can't beat the best teams, I'm far from convinced by Geelong (I think they can only win the flag if the draw falls perfectly for them), Essendon/Wet Toast/Melbourne/Stainers may provide some nuisance value in week 1 or 2, but I think its a bit earlier in the development cycle for Melbourne/Essendon, I can't see West Coast winning enough big finals away from home, and the Saints are so hit and miss its not funny.

Oh and hopefully there is no plans for a repeat of the maggot inspired premiership heroics of the fairypuppies - I'm hoping GWS rip 'em a new one on Friday night, and they end up missing the 8.

Its a crazy old season though, so who knows what might happen from here. We just need to keep winning.

[Go Swannies]

The Adelaide game is huge in terms of Top 4 potential - but there is no one in the top 8, wherever we finish, that we should truly fear and not see as beatable (GWS at the top of their game is still the standout team, with Adelaide not far behind). Our form over the last 3/4 months of the competition has been excellent (wees and poos games aside).

On form, I think the Premiers is likely to come from GWS, Adelaide, Richmond or Us, irrespective of final finishing position.

Port can't beat the best teams, I'm far from convinced by Geelong (I think they can only win the flag if the draw falls perfectly for them), Essendon/Wet Toast/Melbourne/Stainers may provide some nuisance value in week 1 or 2, but I think its a bit earlier in the development cycle for Melbourne/Essendon, I can't see West Coast winning enough big finals away from home, and the Saints are so hit and miss its not funny.

Oh and hopefully there is no plans for a repeat of the maggot inspired premiership heroics of the fairypuppies - I'm hoping GWS rip 'em a new one on Friday night, and they end up missing the 8.

Its a crazy old season though, so who knows what might happen from here. We just need to keep winning.

Amen on the Doggies.

Joy in this household when the Hawks went out of contention and it'll be magnified when the Dogs go. Please.

[penga]

In fact the calmness of every Swans player who had a role in those last two minutes was astounding. A lot of lessons learnt after failing in that situation in the past I think.

Towers kicking out on the full off his left must have been before that

[Mel_C]

Towers kicking out on the full off his left must have been before that

Yes it was earlier in the quarter and I remember yelling "Get him off!" at the tv. I'm not normally like that.