Finals

**Auntie.Gerald** · 15 June 2017, 07:55 PM

Top 8 - can we do it ?

Yes

We are a better team then 9-13

One or two teams can fall out of the top 8

Ie Melbourne or bombers

I say yes

What do u say ?

**ScottH** · 17 June 2017, 07:49 PM

Rising slowly.

**Flying South** · 17 June 2017, 09:30 PM

I have never stopped believing. If we beat the bombers next week and the cats beat fremantle, the suns beat saints and north beat dogs. We are in the 8. Unlikely, but possible going on this year's results.

I am calling it now. We will win the flag this year. I have that much belief in our boys. They will create history.

**Billericay** · 17 June 2017, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by Flying South

I have never stopped believing. If we beat the bombers next week and the cats beat fremantle, the suns beat saints and north beat dogs. We are in the 8. Unlikely, but possible going on this year's results.

I am calling it now. We will win the flag this year. I have that much belief in our boys. They will create history.

Huge call. I hope you are right. We'd out fairytale any possible GF opponent, except perhaps Freo or Saints

**Auntie.Gerald** · 17 June 2017, 10:13 PM

I think
12 wins
13 wins a stretch

Fingers crossed but we have a long way to go

**Markwebbos** · 17 June 2017, 11:15 PM

Given how preposterously even? the comp is this year I think the Swans have done brilliantly to win 5 out of the last 6. It's arguable it would have been 6 out of 6 but for injury (Hawks-gate).

We are only one win off the 8. If we keep up this form we will make finals. But I'll feel much more confident once we are inside the right.

There's no standout team this year either, GWS aren't going to get all their players back, so everyone is vincible.

I'm not going to say we'll win the flag but I'm very optimistic we'll make finals and then anything really is possible

**Thunder Shaker** · 18 June 2017, 06:11 PM

Here is the ladder for the last 6 weeks only.

Code:

SYD  5-1 146.32 20
MELB 4-2 123.67 16
GWS  4-2 101.10 16
ADEL 3-3 122.77 12
PORT 3-3 117.05 12
ESS  3-3 115.04 12
COLL 3-3 110.08 12
NORTH3-3  99.31 12
GEEL 3-3  98.55 12
HAW  3-3  92.75 12
CARL 3-3  92.34 12
GOLD 3-3  87.19 12
STK  3-3  83.76 12
WCE  3-3  82.16 12
FRE  3-3  81.90 12
RICH 2-4 107.01  8
WB   2-4  92.13  8
BRIS 1-5  71.51  4

**Thunder Shaker** · 18 June 2017, 06:30 PM

I've written a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season. It's basically a ladder predictor with random results weighted on each team's form.

The simulation has the Swans making the finals about half the time. We are still a chance to make the top four.

It also suggests an answer to the number of wins needed to make the finals in 8th. 12 wins is average, but 11 wins is possible if other results are right.

Here are the Swans' results from 20 consecutive simulated seasons:

07. Sydney Swans 11 1 10 2059 1990 103.467 46
07. Sydney Swans 12 0 10 2109 1966 107.274 48
10. Sydney Swans 11 0 11 2049 1891 108.355 44
10. Sydney Swans 11 0 11 2069 1934 106.980 44
09. Sydney Swans 11 0 11 2013 1918 104.953 44
09. Sydney Swans 11 0 11 1980 1922 103.018 44
08. Sydney Swans 11 1 10 1953 1916 101.931 46
07. Sydney Swans 11 1 10 2089 1947 107.293 46
06. Sydney Swans 12 0 10 2004 1848 108.442 48
10. Sydney Swans 10 0 12 1956 1890 103.492 40
06. Sydney Swans 12 0 10 2036 1888 107.839 48
06. Sydney Swans 12 1 9 1994 1846 108.017 50
06. Sydney Swans 13 0 9 2110 1912 110.356 52
15. Sydney Swans 8 0 14 1914 1936 98.864 32
10. Sydney Swans 11 0 11 2030 1910 106.283 44
08. Sydney Swans 11 0 11 1994 1862 107.089 44
07. Sydney Swans 12 0 10 1999 1823 109.654 48
14. Sydney Swans 8 0 14 1983 1961 101.122 32
13. Sydney Swans 9 0 13 1967 1968 99.949 36
14. Sydney Swans 8 0 14 1966 1938 101.445 32

**barry** · 18 June 2017, 06:38 PM

We are only a game or of the 8. Another massive game against essendon (8th) this week.

- - - Updated - - -

If we had beaten the dawks we'd be 8th tonight!

**Thunder Shaker** · 18 June 2017, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by barry

If we had beaten the dawks we'd be 8th tonight!

Or the Filth ... we lost to them by one point in round 3.

If we beat the Scum next week, we go ahead of them on the ladder.

With our superior percentage, the five teams above us on the ladder look ... tasty. Their spots on the ladder are there for the taking.

**barry** · 18 June 2017, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker

Or the Filth ... we lost to them by one point in round 3.

If we beat the Scum next week, we go ahead of them on the ladder.

I prefer the term "druggies", which should be echoed from the stands until the last drug user plays his last game.

Especially for king pin Jobe "escobar" Watson.

**Thunder Shaker** · 18 June 2017, 08:05 PM

It's fun running simulations ...

100,000 simulated seasons gives interesting results. Here are the teams ranked by the percentage chance the simulation gave for each team to make the finals. It gives a plausible final ladder.

Code:

ADELAIDE        	99.821%
GWS GIANTS      	98.872%
GEELONG         	94.794%
PORT ADELAIDE   	94.144%
RICHMOND        	90.300%
MELBOURNE       	89.014%
ESSENDON        	63.975%
SYDNEY SWANS     	50.426%
Western Bulldogs 	45.435%
West Coast Eagles 	31.957%
Collingwood     	13.696%
St Kilda        	12.328%
North Melbourne 	 4.789%
Gold Coast      	 4.421%
Fremantle       	 3.807%
Carlton         	 2.077%
Hawthorn        	 0.144%
Brisbane Lions  	 0.000%

According to the simulation, the only team with no real chance of making the finals is Brisbane. All other teams have some chance, even Hawthorn. Sydney ends up in eighth.

The simulation isn't perfect, of course, far from it. It gives little consideration to the Giants' lengthy injury list and has other flaws as well. Still, it is much better than running the ladder simulator manually on the AFL website.

**snajik** · 18 June 2017, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by Thunder Shaker

It's fun running simulations ...

100,000 simulated seasons gives interesting results. Here are the teams ranked by the percentage chance the simulation gave for each team to make the finals. It gives a plausible final ladder.

Code:

ADELAIDE        	99.821%
GWS GIANTS      	98.872%
GEELONG         	94.794%
PORT ADELAIDE   	94.144%
RICHMOND        	90.300%
MELBOURNE       	89.014%
ESSENDON        	63.975%
SYDNEY SWANS     	50.426%
Western Bulldogs 	45.435%
West Coast Eagles 	31.957%
Collingwood     	13.696%
St Kilda        	12.328%
North Melbourne 	 4.789%
Gold Coast      	 4.421%
Fremantle       	 3.807%
Carlton         	 2.077%
Hawthorn        	 0.144%
Brisbane Lions  	 0.000%

According to the simulation, the only team with no real chance of making the finals is Brisbane. All other teams have some chance, even Hawthorn. Sydney ends up in eighth.

The simulation isn't perfect, of course, far from it. It gives little consideration to the Giants' lengthy injury list and has other flaws as well. Still, it is much better than running the ladder simulator manually on the AFL website.

So Week 1 of the finals would see us taking on Richmond at the MCG. Recent history would suggest we could win that one.

**neilfws** · 18 June 2017, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by snajik

So Week 1 of the finals would see us taking on Richmond at the MCG. Recent history would suggest we could win that one.

Don't think this is a simulated ladder? Just the probability of making the 8.

**dejavoodoo44** · 18 June 2017, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by snajik

So Week 1 of the finals would see us taking on Richmond at the MCG. Recent history would suggest we could win that one.

And with that finals line up, if the Giants lose to Geelong, I'd assume that we would then play them at the SCG.

Finals

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