Finals

[SeanM]

I think it is hard to play that well every game.

Even the sides at the top like Adelaide, GWS and Geelong have off games where they are just scrapping through with a win.

We beat Saint Kilda but then we can't recreate the same level of intensity and energy against Hawthorn.

This is such an even season, so there is less easy games where we can just turn up and grind out a win against a weak side.

[MattW]

Every win this thread will get bumped, and every loss this thread will drop off.

Whats the best outcome here... Do we really want to limp into 8th, and face 4 away finals, of which we may win 2.

To win a flag from here, we need to win 8, lose 3, then win 4 on the road against the top teams.
Thats a 12-3 record from now on, in a team that only last week couldnt beat Hawthorn.
In fact I doubt any team has ever had that good a record when you consider it consists of about 9 interstate games.

If finals happen, it will be nice, but the focus should be on getting a team that is ready for a shot at 2018.

I would absolutely prefer we play finals. Go for glory. That's clearly what that players want. That's always been Sydney's approach and it has served the club well.

As someone else said recently, if we make the finals we won't be limping: we'll be on a storming run and pumped for it.

[MattW]

Finals are still unlikely from here, but until it's mathematically impossible we should not give up hope.

As the ladder stands right now, we are only two games outside the top 8 and our percentage is already better than six of the sides above us including three of the sides in the top eight. That will help our chances greatly.

Late-season runs make a good story, and I hope we make that run.

Our remaining fixture with a few notes:
* Richmond (MCG) - Richmond have been a bit of a bogey team in recent years. This will be a difficult game against the Ferals.
* Essendon (SCG) - Good winning chances.
* Melbourne (MCG) - Good winning chances.
* Gold Coast (SCG) - Sydney are one of only two sides that Gold Coast have never beaten.
* GWS Giants (SO) - The hardest game of the ones to come.
* St Kilda (SCG) - We had a good win against them last start. Should win again.
* Hawthorn (MCG) - Could be tricky.
* Geelong (KP) - Sydney are one of very few sides to have beaten Geelong at Kardinia Park multiple times in the past 6 years. I suspect we must win here to keep any late run going.
* Fremantle (SCG) - Good winning chances.
* Adelaide (AO) - We have traditionally struggled against Adelaide but we beat them last start.
* Carlton (SCG) - By this game, our fate will be clear. Even if we're done by this game, we should have good chances to make amends for our poor early form last start against them.

Hardest games: Richmond, GWS, Geelong, Adelaide. If we win all the other games (we may still drop one or two), we will need to win at least one of these to be in the finals.

But this is the 2017 season which has produced a lot of surprises. Let's just enjoy the rest of the season and not worry about whether we make the finals.

Thanks for that. Next Saturday is freaking huge.

[bloodspirit]

I think our best is good enough to beat just about anyone. I've said before about the only team I fear this season is a full-strength GWS. Even at half-strength they are formidable. I think we have shown we can beat the Cats, Crows, Eagles, Bulldogs etc. The challenge is to bring our best consistently. It is very unlikely we will be able to do it every week. Can we do it often enough to get to finals? Fingers crossed. If we do make finals, we won't just be making up the numbers either. Nobody will be happy to play us. But nor would I rate us a strong flag chance just because we make the 8.

[707]

Very good performance against the Dogs has had me looking at the program for the rest of the year, not just for us but for all position 5-8 hopefuls.

I think St.Kilda are gone and Essendon don't look good enough, Hawks are bottom 4.

Collingwood, Melbourne and us look the ones outside the current 8 to challenge for a finals berth. Dogs, Freo and WCE look vulnerable and Richmond are Richmond. On that basis there's about 28 games in the next 12 rounds that will decide our fate, given that we beat everyone from 5th down including Richmond next week, the classic 8 point games.

Melb-Coll is the first game of the 28 on Monday, next week WCE-Geel, Dogs-Melb and of course us-Richmond. Going to be an exciting ride to make history!

[Mug Punter]

Very good performance against the Dogs has had me looking at the program for the rest of the year, not just for us but for all position 5-8 hopefuls.

I think St.Kilda are gone and Essendon don't look good enough, Hawks are bottom 4.

Collingwood, Melbourne and us look the ones outside the current 8 to challenge for a finals berth. Dogs, Freo and WCE look vulnerable and Richmond are Richmond. On that basis there's about 28 games in the next 12 rounds that will decide our fate, given that we beat everyone from 5th down including Richmond next week, the classic 8 point games.

Melb-Coll is the first game of the 28 on Monday, next week WCE-Geel, Dogs-Melb and of course us-Richmond. Going to be an exciting ride to make history!

If only, if only we were 5-6 and not 4-7.....

[giant]

Every win this thread will get bumped, and every loss this thread will drop off.

Whats the best outcome here... Do we really want to limp into 8th, and face 4 away finals, of which we may win 2.

To win a flag from here, we need to win 8, lose 3, then win 4 on the road against the top teams.
Thats a 12-3 record from now on, in a team that only last week couldnt beat Hawthorn.
In fact I doubt any team has ever had that good a record when you consider it consists of about 9 interstate games.

If finals happen, it will be nice, but the focus should be on getting a team that is ready for a shot at 2018.

It's a strange old day when I'm agreeing with Barry, but he's spot on here. If the team were dinkum, they would have turned up in Q1 last week - time to take a long term view and find out whether the likes of Tippett, Rohan, Hewett and others are really going to take us to the next flag.

[Mug Punter]

Every win this thread will get bumped, and every loss this thread will drop off.

Whats the best outcome here... Do we really want to limp into 8th, and face 4 away finals, of which we may win 2.

To win a flag from here, we need to win 8, lose 3, then win 4 on the road against the top teams.
Thats a 12-3 record from now on, in a team that only last week couldnt beat Hawthorn.
In fact I doubt any team has ever had that good a record when you consider it consists of about 9 interstate games.

If finals happen, it will be nice, but the focus should be on getting a team that is ready for a shot at 2018.

Absolutely.

In many ways it would be good to just miss the finals and be able to have a full pre-season for a change.

Having said that 12 wins could well get a finals spot on % this season which requires us to go 8-3 the back half which is Top 4 form. Which despite the naysayers is what we are tracking at the last 5 rounds.

We will need to win at least one of GWS, Geelong or Adelaide away to get that result as well as next week against the Tigers..

[Thunder Shaker]

Great runs to make the finals:

North Melbourne 1975: 0-4 and 11th out of 12 after four rounds, then lost only four more games to make the finals in 3rd place, and went on to win their first premiership.
Essendon 1981: 1-5 and 10th out of 12 after six rounds, then won their next 15 in a row. Lost to Geelong in the last round and then lost the elimination final to Fitzroy.
Brisbane Bears 1995: 4-11 and 14th out of 16 after 15 rounds and down by 45 points to Hawthorn at 3/4 time in round 16, then came back in the final quarter to win, then won 5 of their last 6 games to finish 8th.
Richmond 2013: 3-10 and 16th out of 18 after 14 rounds, then won their last nine games to finish 8th with 12-10.

It can be done!

[barry]

How did we lose to hawthorn!
GC could keep us out of 8th.

[Mug Punter]

Great runs to make the finals:

North Melbourne 1975: 0-4 and 11th out of 12 after four rounds, then lost only four more games to make the finals in 3rd place, and went on to win their first premiership.
Essendon 1981: 1-5 and 10th out of 12 after six rounds, then won their next 15 in a row. Lost to Geelong in the last round and then lost the elimination final to Fitzroy.
Brisbane Bears 1995: 4-11 and 14th out of 16 after 15 rounds and down by 45 points to Hawthorn at 3/4 time in round 16, then came back in the final quarter to win, then won 5 of their last 6 games to finish 8th.
Richmond 2013: 3-10 and 16th out of 18 after 14 rounds, then won their last nine games to finish 8th with 12-10.

It can be done!

If we win 3 of the next four I might start to feel a bit more optimistic.

I predict we'll miss by one and will point to the Carlton and Hawthorn games as the bad losses

[707]

Might need to reassess Essendon after that win. Maybe Port are now vulnerable?!

Anyway, this is the season the AFL had always hoped for, anything can happen, including starting 0-6 and making the finals.

[bloodspirit]

We don't literally need to beat one of GWS, Crows or Geelong to make it but, if we don't, then what is the point of making the finals? I don't want to make the finals just to bow out in week 1.

Looking at the fixture one thing that puts our destiny a little bit more in our hands is that we play all the teams between us and 8th spot except for Collingwood before the end of the season. While the result I would most like to reverse would be the Hawthorn game it would actually be more valuable to get back the Collingwood game because that is an '8 point match' because they are one of the teams between us and 8th unlike Hawthorn and Carlton.

Another thought: right now, looking at the ladder, it looks like 8th is the only spot up for grabs. However if we do get to 12 wins our percentage will likely be the best of the teams on 12 wins so we might do better than 8th.

[Thunder Shaker]

Another thought: right now, looking at the ladder, it looks like 8th is the only spot up for grabs. However if we do get to 12 wins our percentage will likely be the best of the teams on 12 wins so we might do better than 8th.

I would say all spots below 4th are up for grabs. Difference between 5th and 13th: one game and percentage.

Rank these nine teams by percentage and add Sydney. (I'll ignore that some teams have played more games than others):

133.0 Port Adelaide
111.7 Melbourne
105.0 Sydney
102.9 Essendon
102.5 Western Bulldogs
102.3 Collingwood
101.4 West Coast Eagles
92.9 St Kilda
88.2 Gold Coast Suns
78.5 Fremantle

Port's percentage is so far ahead of everyone else that it's worth a game. They are vulnerable though as Essendon demonstrated. Incidentally, Essendon jumped six places on the ladder with their win.

Our percentage is already quite healthy and will improve further if we string a few wins together. With the teams in the middle being so close together, a good percentage is gold.

[CureTheSane]

It was very strange to me that people in the media were ripping on Sydney for our percentage a few weeks ago.
Sure it was low, but we were 1/3 the way through the season.
Traditionally we lose by only a few points.
And now here we are....