Finals

[Ludwig]

17-6

Double chance. Win first up away. Week off. Home Final. Grand Final. Premiership.... Easy.

It must be an advantage that we get to play 23 games and the rest of the league only play 22. The extra 4 points should help us push into the top 4.

[AB Swannie]

I'm just glad to see the Swans playing well again. If they can keep that up (and keep most of their best players fit) I think they'll scrape in. It's a ridiculously even year.

Yep. I agree. I actually think that the biggest benefit from our form turnaround could be that Reid and Zak are more likely to re-sign knowing we are still in a premiership window.

[royboy42]

Just by making September , we will be in the best form of the season. There will be no limping into the finals this year.

[Thunder Shaker]

FWIW, the bookies rate us less than a 50/50 chance to make the finals ($2.25). However, I think 50/50 is just about right. If we can stay fit and keep close to the current side on the park, I'd back us to win 10 of the next 13 games and finish 13-9. Even a 12-10 finish with decent percentage might be good enough.

In the last five years (the five seasons of an 18-team competition), the average number of wins for the 8th-placed team was 12.6 with 9th averaging 11.6. The minimum number of wins to make the finals was 12 so 12 wins could be good enough, but in 2012 the 8th-placed side had 14 wins.

I think 13 wins may be required to make the finals this year. This year is shaping as being similar to the 2012 season, with the top sides being fairly even. This means the top sides are giving up wins to lower sides and this inflates the number of wins for sides in the middle of the ladder. In 2012, only seven wins separated the top side (17-5) from 13th (10-12). After round 9 this year, only four wins separates top from 17th.

The good news is most of our remaining games are winnable. We do not play a top four side again until round 17 (GWS) and the highest-ranked sides we play in that time are Richmond (7th) and Western Bulldogs (8th). By round 17, we could theoretically already have 11 wins (though about 9 wins would be about par). If we have 9 wins by round 17, we would need to win three or four of GWS (A), St Kilda (H), Hawthorn (A), Geelong (A), Fremantle (H), Adelaide (A) and Carlton (H) to make the finals. I think we could be going into round 23 with our finals prospects in our own hands - beat Carlton, we're in.

[mcs]

Its a very strange old season this year. It'll be tough for us to make it, but who knows with the way footy is this season, and the fact teams are beating each other unexpectedly almost every round.

I think we will need 13 wins to make finals - which looks a stretch, but a chance if we can get on a good run. Can't drop any silly ones from here on in however.

In the end though, as long as we continue to play good footy like we have over the past few weeks, I'll be happy. If we do fall into finals, whoever we meet in the first week won't be best pleased to see us!

[Industrial Fan]

12 wins will do it with the evenness at the bottom (Lions aside). 2012 had both gws and suns getting pumped every week with a few other total rubbish teams for good measure.

12 and good % is my tip.

We have no margin for error and the Carlton game is the one we should have banked imo.

[barry]

Still a long way to go. A key injury (buddy, reg, Kennedy) and we are toast.

Even if we limp into 8th, 4 finals all on the road (unless we get lucky and meet GWS) is to much. And don't compare to dogs. They may have finished 7th but got two home finals including grand final.

[CureTheSane]

Now here's the thing...glass half full/empty.

I'm the ultimate optimist.
For me the glass is always totally full - 50% water and 50% air

[Blue Sun]

If the Swans play their remaining games like the past 2 matches, I'd say they're a sneaky chance to make the 8. If I had to bet, I'd put my money on them finishing 9th or 10th.

[Plugger46]

This is the most unpredictable season I can ever remember, so you never know.

However, unlike the Bulldogs in 2016, who only once left Melbourne in the Finals, a 7th finish for us in 2017 would mean constant successful interstate travel to win the flag, ( except a semi final or preliminary final against the Giants). Very unlikely.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

'Dogs played the Eagles in WA and the Giants in Sydney so they travelled twice.

[CureTheSane]

Everyone seems to accept that the shaky Vic teams will no longer be shaky and hold their ladder positions.
I predict some big down times for some of them, with the bottom end of the ladder taking wins and lowing their spots.
Swans have to keep winning, but so do the other teams in the comp.

If we didn't play the first 6 rounds and have the comp a head start, I'd be of no doubt that we'd be in the top 8 at the end of the year.
We all just need to put those first 6 behinds up and look to the future.

[Ludwig]

We all just need to put those first 6 behinds up and look to the future.

Do you mean like this?

[Thunder Shaker]

Still a long way to go. A key injury (buddy, reg, Kennedy) and we are toast.

Even if we limp into 8th, 4 finals all on the road (unless we get lucky and meet GWS) is to much. And don't compare to dogs. They may have finished 7th but got two home finals including grand final.

If we get into the finals after a 0-6 start, we won't be limping.

[barry]

Finals. Lol

[CureTheSane]

https://www.google.com.au/search?q=faith+george+michael&oq=faith+george+michael&aqs=chrome..69i57.4311j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8