Finals

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  • Thunder Shaker
    Aut vincere aut mori
    • Apr 2004
    • 4205

    #61
    Originally posted by Mug Punter
    If we win 3 of the next four I might start to feel a bit more optimistic.

    I predict we'll miss by one and will point to the Carlton and Hawthorn games as the bad losses
    3 of the next four: Richmond (A), Essendon (H), Melbourne (A), Gold Coast (H). If we're to be some kind of contender, we really have to win at least three. If we don't, we're just shaping the eight and not making it.

    As for the losses to rue, I would add Collingwood to that list. One point. Had we won by one point instead, we'd be 11th and only one game outside the eight.
    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

    Comment

    • Faunac8
      Senior Player
      • Mar 2014
      • 1548

      #62
      Carlton knocking over the Giants shows that this season is IMO the most open in memory . We hold our destiny in our hands simply need to keep winning and the finals are almost a new season. Anything is possible.

      Comment

      • aguy
        Senior Player
        • Mar 2014
        • 1324

        #63
        Originally posted by Faunac8
        Carlton knocking over the Giants shows that this season is IMO the most open in memory . We hold our destiny in our hands simply need to keep winning and the finals are almost a new season. Anything is possible.
        Carlton beating the giants was my second favourite game all season. And my favourite was swans beating dogs. Both happened in this round of footy. What a ripper of a round.

        Go Swans. It's a slim chance for finals but if any team can challenge I think it's the swans.

        Comment

        • Thunder Shaker
          Aut vincere aut mori
          • Apr 2004
          • 4205

          #64
          I just played around with the ladder predictor on the AFL website and it's quite possible we could be in the top 8 if we win our next three. Percentage is the key.
          "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

          Comment

          • dejavoodoo44
            Veterans List
            • Apr 2015
            • 8652

            #65
            Originally posted by aguy
            Carlton beating the giants was my second favourite game all season. And my favourite was swans beating dogs. Both happened in this round of footy. What a ripper of a round.

            Go Swans. It's a slim chance for finals but if any team can challenge I think it's the swans.
            Yes, I quite enjoyed the Giants getting done. Especially the fact that they lost by a point and Toby Greene managed to both, kick 0-5 and miss a few crucial passes. Certainly seemed to wipe the smirk off his face.

            Comment

            • barry
              Veterans List
              • Jan 2003
              • 8499

              #66
              Giants are no shoe in. There forward line is pretty disfunctional.

              Comment

              • Bloody Hell
                Senior Player
                • Oct 2006
                • 3085

                #67
                Originally posted by Thunder Shaker
                3 of the next four: Richmond (A), Essendon (H), Melbourne (A), Gold Coast (H). If we're to be some kind of contender, we really have to win at least three. If we don't, we're just shaping the eight and not making it.

                As for the losses to rue, I would add Collingwood to that list. One point. Had we won by one point instead, we'd be 11th and only one game outside the eight.
                If we can only have 3 more loses, there are three gimme losses in the draw ahead. Must beat the Tigers...and all four of those you mention.

                Adelaide at home
                GWS at home
                Geelong at home

                There are a lot of lose-able games in there.
                The eternal connundrum "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object" was finally solved when David Hasselhoff punched himself in the face.

                Comment

                • Mug Punter
                  On the Rookie List
                  • Nov 2009
                  • 3325

                  #68
                  I think 12 wins will definitely get in there. We beat the Tigers and then we are in a position to week after to jump ahead of Essendon if best them and they are sixth right now.

                  Closest comp I can remember for a long time

                  Comment

                  • Thunder Shaker
                    Aut vincere aut mori
                    • Apr 2004
                    • 4205

                    #69
                    Originally posted by Mug Punter
                    I think 12 wins will definitely get in there. We beat the Tigers and then we are in a position to week after to jump ahead of Essendon if best them and they are sixth right now.

                    Closest comp I can remember for a long time
                    Top to 17th - five games.

                    1993 was similar. If we ignore the bottom three sides (we were one of them - shh!) the top 12 sides (in a 15-side competition where all sides played 20 games) were separated by 3 1/2 games after 22 rounds.

                    Code:
                    ESSENDON        13 1  6  119.1  54
                    CARLTON         13 1  6  117.6  54
                    NORTH MELBOURNE 13 -  7  120.8  52
                    HAWTHORN        13 -  7  116.6  52
                    ADELAIDE        12 -  8  117.8  48
                    WEST COAST      12 -  8  115.8  48
                    
                    Geelong         12 -  8  111.6  48
                    Collingwood     11 -  9  101.3  44
                    Footscray       11 -  9   99.0  44
                    Melbourne       10 - 10  112.2  40
                    Fitzroy         10 - 10   99.5  40
                    St Kilda        10 - 10   94.2  40
                    The bottom 3 sides were Brisbane Bears, Richmond, Sydney (in alphabetical order).

                    Geelong were the side with the best form heading into the 1993 finals (they won their last 5 games by an average of 47.2 points including big floggings of the top two sides Hawthorn and North Melbourne) but they missed the final six by percentage. Had they beaten the Eagles by more in the final round at the WACA they would have made it. This was one of the reasons why the AFL introduced the first final 8 system the following year.
                    "Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi final

                    Comment

                    • 707
                      Veterans List
                      • Aug 2009
                      • 6204

                      #70
                      Next four are all 8 point games against contenders for berths in the eight. Absolutely must win them all to not only advance us to parity but put dents in their win columns.

                      It's in our hands, we just need to avoid bad luck like losing Lloyd at the start of the Hawks game etc.

                      Comment

                      • Mug Punter
                        On the Rookie List
                        • Nov 2009
                        • 3325

                        #71
                        Originally posted by 707
                        Next four are all 8 point games against contenders for berths in the eight. Absolutely must win them all to not only advance us to parity but put dents in their win columns.

                        It's in our hands, we just need to avoid bad luck like losing Lloyd at the start of the Hawks game etc.
                        Problem is of course we just have no margin for error which is why the Hawks defeat is so annoying.

                        They are all must win for the next few games so needless to say if we don't beat the Tigers we're pretty much done. I personally feel quite confident about this game

                        Comment

                        • bloodspirit
                          Clubman
                          • Apr 2015
                          • 4448

                          #72
                          Super post Thunder Shaker! What a season that must have been - before I was paying attention. You can see the tightness of that comp by looking at the percentage too. Only 5 points difference in percentage covering all the finalists.
                          All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

                          Comment

                          • bloodspirit
                            Clubman
                            • Apr 2015
                            • 4448

                            #73
                            According to Champion Data we are currently a 40% chance of playing finals: AFL Power Rankings, Round 12 2017: Fox Footy?s ranking of every club from best to worst | Fox Sports

                            Chance of making top 8: 40 per cent

                            Chance of making top 4: 5 per cent

                            Since Round 7, the Swans have had the best form in the AFL, scoring the most points and allowing the fewest. It?s surely no coincidence that around that time was when they started getting their players back from injury after a preseason in which they didn?t achieve their fitness goals. Despite being 14th on the AFL ladder, the Swans are rated by Champion Data as the most likely side currently outside the top eight to play finals.
                            All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)

                            Comment

                            • barry
                              Veterans List
                              • Jan 2003
                              • 8499

                              #74
                              Season defining game this week. I mean they all are, but if we lose we could be back down in bottom 4 and really the chances of final 8 would be around 10%.

                              Comment

                              • Swansongster
                                Senior Player
                                • Sep 2008
                                • 1264

                                #75
                                Originally posted by Mug Punter
                                Problem is of course we just have no margin for error which is why the Hawks defeat is so annoying.

                                They are all must win for the next few games so needless to say if we don't beat the Tigers we're pretty much done. I personally feel quite confident about this game
                                I'm still having nightmares about last year's game at the G against Tiges. Had that won but did a Richmond and found a way to lose from the last kick.

                                Comment

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