Longmire.

[Mug Punter]

part one of the plan -
Jones set to remain in Sydney
Jon Ralph
Daily Telegraph, Herald Sun, May 27

SYDNEY is confident it will ward off Melbourne?s interest in Zak Jones and reward his brilliant form this year.

It comes as Sydney football boss Tom Harley emerges as a serious contender to succeed departing chief executive Andrew Ireland late next year.

I'll be hoping for a signing pretty soon if this is the case, re-signing Zak will give us all something to be positive about in what is becoming a challenging year. Unlike Sammy (right now I'd lose him for a top 10 compo pick) I think we all agree that losing Zak would be a body blow

[Blood Fever]

Oh dear, we are 3-7 and the world is going to end. Nurse grab the diapers now!

Many won't share this view but I'm going to view the ladder for the last 16 games at the end of the year as an alternate indicator of our season, if we can go 10-6 over that period I'll be mildly satisfied with the season after our start

Commonsense approach. Followed us when we were South for years - made the finals twice in 31 years, brief appearances in mid 80s, then been in finals 17 years out of last 20,6 grand finals, 7 Prelims and 2 flags. This is paradise even if we miss out this year. Younger generation spoilt and need to cop a bit of pain to appreciate how good the club has been. Young list looks ok for the future. Patience needed- we've had no luck this year. Longer lay off after this season might do us world of good. Port Power seems to have benefitted and a lot of our senior players have been exceptional for a long time.

[RogueSwan]

Commonsense approach. Followed us when we were South for years - made the finals twice in 31 years, brief appearances in mid 80s, then been in finals 17 years out of last 20,6 grand finals, 7 Prelims and 2 flags. This is paradise even if we miss out this year. Younger generation spoilt and need to cop a bit of pain to appreciate how good the club has been. Young list looks ok for the future. Patience needed- we've had no luck this year. Longer lay off after this season might do us world of good. Port Power seems to have benefitted and a lot of our senior players have been exceptional for a long time.

Where is that "like" button?

[mattybloods]

I'll be hoping for a signing pretty soon if this is the case, re-signing Zak will give us all something to be positive about in what is becoming a challenging year. Unlike Sammy (right now I'd lose him for a top 10 compo pick) I think we all agree that losing Zak would be a body blow

I'm concerned about our lack of depth with tall forwards; who comes in if Reid gets injured or traded? In our reserves we primarily play Pink and Cameron (when not rucking) and top ups. If we lose Reid we need to recruit another Tall forward. Not a high priced one either, someone who can play a role in the same vein of X Richards last year. Sounds like Aliir going forward in the reserves wasn't a huge success but will be interesting to see whether he becomes a swing man

[Mug Punter]

I'm concerned about our lack of depth with tall forwards; who comes in if Reid gets injured or traded? In our reserves we primarily play Pink and Cameron (when not rucking) and top ups. If we lose Reid we need to recruit another Tall forward. Not a high priced one either, someone who can play a role in the same vein of X Richards last year. Sounds like Aliir going forward in the reserves wasn't a huge success but will be interesting to see whether he becomes a swing man

I would think we'd be hoping Cameron will develop into a decent option next year if Sam does go. Would we consider re-drafting Xav as cover if Sam leavers? I doubt it as I think he burnt his bridges at the Swans. Drafting 101 tells us that elite KPFs usually require a top 10 draft pick at the very least so this year will probably provide us with that opportunity, a relatively rare one for us. With Blakey hopefully also on his way next year that should shore us up nicely.

IF we were to get picks 7,8 and (say) 27 due to Sam leaving we could get a gun KPF and two very very good young mids in the draft. Use our third rounder for another KPD and just bring the kids through.

I'm feeling very confident about Zak now but I expect news before we play the Doggies as it's crunch time. Sounds like we'll get this one done and the offer to Sam will depend ion the final TPP level which I feel is pretty much finalised and known to clubs anyway

[annew]

Sydney have chosen who is more important to them. Sam Reid or Kurt Tippett. One is getting offloaded for the other.
The decision has been made at Sydney to do everything it can to move Kurt Tippett on at the end of this year, even though they are resigned to the fact they?ll need to pay some of his huge contract next season.

And even a huge turnaround in form is unlikely to change the Swans? minds.

Sydney needs to free up salary cap space if they?re any chance to keep hold of Sam Reid and Zak Jones, so they?re scrounging for dollars wherever they can find them, effectively moving the sofa cushions hoping to find loose change.

Whether they can find anyone interested in the soon-to-be 30-year-old is another thing altogether.

From Sporting News

[Hotpotato]

Thanks for invoking Rule 6.

Is Sporting News a reliable source?

[Mug Punter]

Sydney have chosen who is more important to them. Sam Reid or Kurt Tippett. One is getting offloaded for the other.
The decision has been made at Sydney to do everything it can to move Kurt Tippett on at the end of this year, even though they are resigned to the fact they?ll need to pay some of his huge contract next season.

And even a huge turnaround in form is unlikely to change the Swans? minds.

Sydney needs to free up salary cap space if they?re any chance to keep hold of Sam Reid and Zak Jones, so they?re scrounging for dollars wherever they can find them, effectively moving the sofa cushions hoping to find loose change.

Whether they can find anyone interested in the soon-to-be 30-year-old is another thing altogether.

From Sporting News

This just feels like it's true for mine.

The only club I could possibly see being interested in this would be the Gold Coast. They need some experience, cap space won't be a problem with Gazza leaving, is it possible we could also send a latter round pick or upgrade their way as part of the deal to sweeten it? (Is the Oswald deal that Matt80 continually refers to, OMG Matt will be wetting himself if that deal comes off and he doesn't have a forum to talk in LOL)

We'll probably have to pay $600K of his $900K deal next year but that $300K could well be the difference between us getting Sammy on board for 2018 as from 2019 some cap space will open up.

You could argue that a deal where Tippo goes to the Suns on a two year deal ($900K for 2018 with us funding $600K and $300K for 2019 with some incentives) is win-win-win

* We get him off the books and keep Sammy
* Gold Coast gets a decent player and maybe a draft pick for very reasonable wages
* Tippo gets to extend his career a year and after tax probably earns quite a bit more.

Whether it fits within the Suns list strategy is a completely different story which is why I won't be holding my breath with this one. If we do trade him then it really does open up our ruck stocks next year though if you listen to Ludwig then they're an optional extra these days anyway

Reading between the lines we'll get the Jones deal done pretty quickly and Sam will give us as much time as we need to find a solution to his requirements but IF this is true it is clear that as things stand we are nowhere in the ball park for a deal with Sammy financially. And Tippett is probably the only solution.

[bodgie]

Not sure of the contract $ numbers but both Kurt and Reid can be traded out this year? I'd let them both go if we can spend that money on someone else promising with a reliable body. Allir has plenty of scope to develop and we may be up for an early draft pick.

[annew]

Are any news oulets relable?

[Ludwig]

The Sporting News story doesn't ring true to me for several reasons.

1. The Swans were well aware of Tippett's contract trigger clause long before negotiations for the new CBA even started. There was no way of knowing at the time that the salary cap increase would go up 20% instead or 10% which the clubs were given guidance for.
2. It's hard to believe that we misplanned the salary cap by 10% or over $1,000,000. This kind of stuff is worked out years in advance. We've been in a tight squeeze for sure, but I think that phase has now passed.
3. The matter of not signing Tom Mitchell is often used as an example to illustrate how tight our salary cap is. I don't doubt that the cap was tight and it would have been difficult to offer Tom a fair wage compared to offers from others, but I have said from the start that Tom was chosen to be the one sacrificed from our list in order to keep others at the club. This has been born out recently by Andrew Ireland.
4. Although many of the new contracts will likely have clauses for increases pursuant to the new CBA, a fair number, almost certainly including both Buddy and Tippett, which were done many years ago for big money, would not. So only a portion of some of the contracts are likely to be absorbed by the new salary cap. So we should have a fair bit of extra cash to work with, even if it's not as much as many other clubs.
5. Reid was reportedly on 500k. He may not be offered an increase or certainly not a big increase. His reasons for staying at the Swans has more to do for family reasons.
6. So it's only really Jones who may be looking for a sizable salary jump from his present contract. I think we can manage to work out this one contract.
7. We only have one year to work around, 2018, then Tippett can simply be delisted and his contract is gone. Certainly we can work Reid and Jones's contracts to take this into account.

We may went want to offload Tippett if we can. He really has been excess baggage for most of his time with us. But I can't see who would want him. He'll be 31 next year, so what would a rebuilding club like Gold Coast see in him? They have Lynch, Wright, Day and ruckman Jarrad Witt, who's playing well.

Regardless of what we would like to do with Tippett, he's under contract, so he doesn't have to go anywhere, regardless of any offers from other clubs.

As I have said in other posts, I think we should try to trade Sinclair. He still might have value. Freo might be interested in either Tippett or Sinclair, given they really don't have anyone after Sandilands. Richmond could use a backup ruckman and might be interested in Sinclair.

I think we will be stuck with Tippett and still be able to sign both Reid and Jones. Things should ease on the salary cap front after next year.

[rb4x]

I would not get too excited about the increase in salary cap over and above expectations. If next year rookies are included on the main list and the rookie list is abolished then I would expect them to be also accommodated under the new salary cap. Which club has a very long list of rookies, eight in all. Hint they wear red and white. That might be about a million gone already. For other clubs not so much. GWS for example has two at present. The VFL will find a way don't worry.

[Hotpotato]

Kurt has played some decent footy at times, but he like quite a few others have hit the wall in 2017.
Some like Hanners and Josh have now reversed that, maybe KT will shortly be back to his best .
The Swans have never been ones to leak stuff like The Sporting News (I've never heard of them) published.
Is it an online thing?

[barry]

Some interesting stats on footy classified about Sydney.

Basically, teams have employed the chip-it-around, keepings-off-style against us and won. This is shown up in losses against Hawthorn, Collingwood where their uncontested marks/possessions is way higher than Sydney's. This points to Longmire not being able to combat that mode of play. Too stubborn to.

The other was ranking Reid, Tippett and Sinclair against their peers on average stats. All were average to poor. This shows to me that Buddy is basically holding up the forward line, and its time to think about reducing our big man count by 1 at least.

[KTigers]

I just wish our guys would man up a bit closer more regularly when the likes of Collingwood & Hawthorn go into
"keepings off" mode against us. As good as their kicking is, their margin for error is way less when our guys are
standing two metres off instead of five or ten metres. Of course it's not easy to stay that close all the time, but
the added pressure of close checking can produce the one errant kick that's needed and it's a 50/50 contested
situation again. We haven't lost these games by much and could have been 5-and-5 quite easily. Overall we've played
better than 3-and-7 this season.