2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Ludwig]

State of Play - Part 6

Depth Players and Rookies

With Macca and Grundy signing on for another season it would seem that a bit of culling will be made to our depth players. We already have 3 players who have requested trades and are likely to depart.

Newman was probably the best of the depth players going into the season, but hasn't improved this year after a good senior start in 2017, and will be starting next season at 26 yo. There's not enough upside for him to stay on our list. It seems like he should have a better run with GC.

My delisting or trade out targets, in order of most likely are:

1. Dean Towers: 28 yo and probably has reached his peak. Fits the category of list clogger now, but may have value to another club. Trade for a late pick is possible.
2. Harry Marsh: Not quite good enough for the senior side. Will be 25 in January. Time to move on.
3. Dan Robinson: Played 9 games this year with minimal effect. Doesn't seem likely to develop his game enough to become a senior player, especially given the new talent coming up through the ranks.
4. James Rose: Just might hang in there if we don't need to free a spot for him. He had a good year in the NEAFL and is still only 22. There are parts of his game that are quite good. He marks and kicks well and is an evasive runner and generally an aggressive tackler. He's improved his defensive game, but still needs to become more consistent and reduce his error rate. I would give him another year, even if it means dropping him to the rookie list.
5. Jordan Foote: Many would have him at the top of the list for departures, but he would be the one I would keep. He had a tough year with injuries, although they weren't of a nature that would make you think he is injury prone. He showed some good form early in the season before his first injury and was good again upon his return. Has enough of the basics to think he has more improvement left in him. I'd like to see what he can do if he had an injury free year. I'd give him another year on the list.
6. Robbie Fox: He's on the rookie list and I don't see much reason not to give him a 3rd year. He was probably our best depth player most of the year and managed to play 10 games, but his form tailed off considerably late in the season. He's versatile enough to keep on the rookie for one more go around.

Rookies:

1. Toby Pink: Delist. Had an injury plagued year at the wrong time in his career. He was marginal last year anyway.
2. Angus Styles: Delist. He had a few strong games in the NEAFL and there were times when I thought he might go on. But he was very inconsistent and more poor performances than good ones.
3. James Bell: He's classy player with talent, but needs to substantially raise his work rate next year. He drops out of games a bit too often. He has potential and will be hoping for a big development year in 2019.
4. Jake Brown: A tireless worker and 2 way player. Showed improvement throughout the season. He has the right foundation to make steady improvement and give himself a shot at AFL in a couple of years.
5. Joel Amartey: The best of the rookies and a serious prospect for the future. He's a great size, marks the ball strongly, runs well, tackles, and does all the things you want from a 1st year player. He's a very versatile player and should have a big future. He received a 1 year contract extension. Ludwig's Future Star selection for the year (although there wasn't much competition after Stoddart was dropped from consideration because he played 2 senior games).

I would project 7 senior departures (includes Tippett) and 3 rookie delistings if we include AJ. Ronke elevated to the senior list. So 4 new rookie spots to fill and perhaps 6 senior spots.

It's not really a projection, but let's just call it an early sign, but I think we will get pick 4 from the Saints in a swap of first rounders and take Blakey with leftover points. Our 2nd round picks may be used in trade deals. We may take another player in the draft with a late pick. There's a fair chance of a straight swap of Rohan for Thurlow. We should still be left with a couple of vacancies on our senior list, which I hope to be filled with experienced players from other clubs.


More to come

[liz]

Depth Players and Rookies

With Macca and Grundy signing on for another season it would seem that a bit of culling will be made to our depth players. We already have 3 players who have requested trades and are likely to depart.

Newman was probably the best of the depth players going into the season, but hasn't improved this year after a good senior start in 2017, and will be starting next season at 26 yo. There's not enough upside for him to stay on our list. It seems like he should have a better run with GC.

My delisting or trade out targets, in order of most likely are:

1. Dean Towers: 28 yo and probably has reached his peak. Fits the category of list clogger now, but may have value to another club. Trade for a late pick is possible.
2. Harry Marsh: Not quite good enough for the senior side. Will be 25 in January. Time to move on.
3. Dan Robinson: Played 9 games this year with minimal effect. Doesn't seem likely to develop his game enough to become a senior player, especially given the new talent coming up through the ranks.
4. James Rose: Just might hang in there if we don't need to free a spot for him. He had a good year in the NEAFL and is still only 22. There are parts of his game that are quite good. He marks and kicks well and is an evasive runner and generally an aggressive tackler. He's improved his defensive game, but still needs to become more consistent and reduce his error rate. I would give him another year, even if it means dropping him to the rookie list.
5. Jordan Foote: Many would have him at the top of the list for departures, but he would be the one I would keep. He had a tough year with injuries, although they weren't of a nature that would make you think he is injury prone. He showed some good form early in the season before his first injury and was good again upon his return. Has enough of the basics to think he has more improvement left in him. I'd like to see what he can do if he had an injury free year. I'd give him another year on the list.
6. Robbie Fox: He's on the rookie list and I don't see much reason not to give him a 3rd year. He was probably our best depth player most of the year and managed to play 10 games, but his form tailed off considerably late in the season. He's versatile enough to keep on the rookie for one more go around.

Rookies:

1. Toby Pink: Delist. Had an injury plagued year at the wrong time in his career. He was marginal last year anyway.
2. Angus Styles: Delist. He had a few strong games in the NEAFL and there were times when I thought he might go on. But he was very inconsistent and more poor performances than good ones.
3. James Bell: He's classy player with talent, but needs to substantially raise his work rate next year. He drops out of games a bit too often. He has potential and will be hoping for a big development year in 2019.
4. Jake Brown: A tireless worker and 2 way player. Showed improvement throughout the season. He has the right foundation to make steady improvement and give himself a shot at AFL in a couple of years.
5. Joel Amartey: The best of the rookies and a serious prospect for the future. He's a great size, marks the ball strongly, runs well, tackles, and does all the things you want from a 1st year player. He's a very versatile player and should have a big future. He received a 1 year contract extension. Ludwig's Future Star selection for the year (although there wasn't much competition after Stoddart was dropped from consideration because he played 2 senior games).

I would project 7 senior departures (includes Tippett) and 3 rookie delistings if we include AJ. Ronke elevated to the senior list. So 4 new rookie spots to fill and perhaps 6 senior spots.

It's not really a projection, but let's just call it an early sign, but I think we will get pick 4 from the Saints in a swap of first rounders and take Blakey with leftover points. Our 2nd round picks may be used in trade deals. We may take another player in the draft with a late pick. There's a fair chance of a straight swap of Rohan for Thurlow. We should still be left with a couple of vacancies on our senior list, which I hope to be filled with experienced players from other clubs.


More to come

Agree with most of those orders of likelihood, though there may not be much to chose amongst the senior fringe players in terms of value of keeping them (or guessed perception of their value by the club). I agree that it's hard to see Towers staying given his persistent non-selection in the second half of the year. It's been a strange fall from grace for him, given that at the end of 2017 and start of 2018 he seemed to have established himself in the senior team. Of the rest, I reckon it would be wise to retain a couple, assuming they are happy to stick around knowing they'll probably be playing NEAFL. I don't feel which are better value to keep. I reckon Rose has the biggest potential upside but I also reckon he's a long shot to achieve it.

I don't agree with your suggestion that Styles has been inconsistent. I reckon he's had a pretty steady season and seems like a hard worker. I'm just not sure he has the size or weapons to reach the next level.

Brown has pleasantly surprised me this year. I was a bit "blah" when he was rookied at the end of last season - given how much NEAFL experience he already had and the fact he was over-aged, even by a year, I wasn't sure there was much scope for improvement. But he's proved me wrong, and has significantly improved over the year, especially in his kicking (which was my main doubt about him). I'll be very surprised if both he and Bell aren't offered second rookie years.

[stevoswan]

@The Big Cat I saw your post and clicked on the fox footy link, read the article, came back here to comment but the page was chopped at the bottom (no reply box.....weird), so I refreshed and your post had gone......anyway, very interesting article. Any one of Gaff, Sheil or May would be good.

[S.S. Bleeder]

Barrett's at his usual 'stupid' best....this from his 'Sliding Doors' article.....

If......even half the talk about player unrest is right ...

Then.....it is very un-Swans like right now.

Effing tool....loves to stir the pot. Hasn't got a clue......

Putting our emotion and bias aside, how do we actually know he's wrong?

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With all these rumors of players wanting transfers, having meeting with list managers,etc.etc is there anyone who isn't seeking a trade??

Longmire.

[liz]

@The Big Cat I saw your post and clicked on the fox footy link, read the article, came back here to comment but the page was chopped at the bottom (no reply box.....weird), so I refreshed and your post had gone......anyway, very interesting article. Any one of Gaff, Sheil or May would be good.

I had to delete the post because the link messed up the whole thread. There's something about the length of Fox Sports links that the site can't cope with. It should show up as a "soft delete" above - ie you should be able to see it was once there and the reason it no longer is.

I just tried to play around with a link to an article on that site to see if truncating it works, but it doesn't. And the whole Fox Sports site looks to be a bit messed up at the moment. Maybe people can post a link to the home page if they want to direct other posters to an article on the Fox site. If it's recent, it should show up on the home page.

[Legs Akimbo]

Putting our emotion and bias aside, how do we actually know he's wrong?

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.

My feeling is he is spot on. I think moving hannebery on is part is part of the solution.

[stevoswan]

Putting our emotion and bias aside, how do we actually know he's wrong?

I have little faith in journo's esp. Barrett and I have lots of faith in our club and it's culture.....bias, maybe.....romantic, definitely!

Seriously though, I think it's becoming clear the Swans are planning something big.

[Mel_C]

Does Damien Barrett even understand what the term "Sliding Door" means?? He doesn't seem to use it in the right context.

[Melbourne_Blood]

Does Damien Barrett even understand what the term "Sliding Door" means?? He doesn't seem to use it in the right context.

100%. Half of them are confusing , he’s a deadset nob


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[liz]

100%. Half of them are confusing , he’s a deadset nob


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Half? You're being very generous.

[liz]

My feeling is he is spot on. I think moving hannebery on is part is part of the solution.

Why should the move of Hannebery - whether instigated by him or the club - signal broader player unrest?

[dejavoodoo44]

Does Damien Barrett even understand what the term "Sliding Door" means?? He doesn't seem to use it in the right context.

Dunno, I haven't opened that particular door for months.

[Legs Akimbo]

Why should the move of Hannebery - whether instigated by him or the club - signal broader player unrest?

Organisational culture is a fickle thing and emotional contagion from just a few negative or destabilising individuals undermines group cohesive. It's all the worse when the person doing it is in a position of 'leadership'

I saw two things in a game (was it vs Hawthorn?) a while back which I commented on at the time. Both were a bit off. Hannebery could have kicked it to Alir who was wide open but didn't. Shortly afterwards I saw Alir remonstrating with him. This was on the field. Then when benched shortly afterwards, Hannebery had a full on argy bargy with McVeigh on the interchange bench. I've seen him give fellow players an onfield spray on several occasions this year.

What is cause and what is effect? How long ago did Hannebery check out? What did the other players know?

More generally, it seems we have been bereft of leadership this year. You can just sense it. The fact that the club is happy to offload him after he signed a long term contract just a few years ago suggests something has changed. I don't think it is salary cap pressure, although that may be part of it.

[aardvark]

I think Sinclair is out of contract. I was wondering what was happening with him.

It was suggested on SEN that with Nic Nat out for another year and Lycett seeking a game elsewhere that Sinkers might be a good fit for the Eagles. Pure speculation as far as I know.

[Ludwig]

I agree that it's hard to see Towers staying given his persistent non-selection in the second half of the year. It's been a strange fall from grace for him, given that at the end of 2017 and start of 2018 he seemed to have established himself in the senior team. Of the rest, I reckon it would be wise to retain a couple, assuming they are happy to stick around knowing they'll probably be playing NEAFL. I don't feel which are better value to keep. I reckon Rose has the biggest potential upside but I also reckon he's a long shot to achieve it.

We may not see many primary list delistings until after the trade period and we can calculate just how many spots are open. I feel Towers, Robinson and Marsh have had enough time to prove that they are only marginal players. Rose and Foote will probably also prove they're not good enough either, but not having had quite enough time to be sure. That said, I did see some progress this year from them that shows that they are still improving.

There will probably be a preference to playing younger players like Ling, Stoddart and Blakey ahead of these depth players, so they will likely have scant opportunities to prove themselves.