2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[KTigers]

I think the club has done a decent job during the trade period. Sure there was no exciting stuff. But it seems we are focusing on
guys who really want to be at the Swans (getting rid of Hanners, Rohan, Newman etc) and we've brought in a couple new guys
to fill in some holes. You don't need to have the flashiest list to win, we've proved that before. You just need a bunch of guys all
on the same page and you need to not get injured.

[longmile]

I'm happy to go to the draft looking at Blakey plus picks 38, 39 and 40, and delisting one more primary list player. although I wouldn't mind if both Marsh and Robinson were delisted and we picked up a DLA or had another pick in the draft.

Who would you delist? Personally I'd delist Rose or even Maibaum. Marsh and Robinson are good depth, both play a role satisfactorily when needed.

[R-1]

Here's my (co-authored) take for the ABC, based on our HPN work - Who won and lost the 2018 AFL Trade Period? - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

It's not a glamorous trade period, but Sydney project well out of it in terms of total future expected value (there are graphs!).

Clarke is a big piece of that. As a 21 year old with 40 games under his belt (even at a relatively low level of value to his team), history suggests he has a lot of footy ahead of him, probably more than Hannebery and Rohan combined (Thurlow barely figures and Newman might do a lot more at Carlton than he would have here).

We have also upgraded our position in the next two drafts by a lot (that Saints 2nd rounder is a nice acquisition), basically expanding the probability we get good value out of it, and because draft position is all abstract probabilities, this is the thing observers tend to underrate.

[Ludwig]

Who would you delist? Personally I'd delist Rose or even Maibaum. Marsh and Robinson are good depth, both play a role satisfactorily when needed.

I would definitely keep both Rose and Maibaum as they have the most potential. Rose had a great year in the reserves and Maibaum improved thoughout the year and could well get some senior games next year. I don't hold much hope for either Robinson or Marsh. I feel that if either is playing in our side, the team is not in good shape. As I said in the previous post, I wouldn't mind delisting both and using another pick in the draft, although it's likely to be quite late.

[Markwebbos]

Swans best 22 has a lack of 25-29 year old players and a stack of under 25s. So next year might be down but as that younger group matures... very exciting.

- - - Updated - - -

BTW two first rounders for Beams who is 29! I know who won that trade and it wasn’t Collingwood

[ISIBIDBI]

Not sure if anyone has seen Kinnear’s trade period summary but it was very interesting. Mentioned at the end that the Swans would look to move up the draft order with live pick trading if there is someone we rate really highly. Also said we were looking at taking 4 players in the draft including Blakey.

[caj23]

Any chance Weller could make his way to the Swans I think he could be a good fit??

Hope not, he's been a mediocre player for a long time at two mediocre teams

Surprisingly enough I read on the other board the Hawks are looking at him

[grarmy]

Any chance Weller could make his way to the Swans I think he could be a good fit??

Damn right! Paul Weller would be a very hip upgrade to Neil Diamond.

[barry]

Swans best 22 has a lack of 25-29 year old players and a stack of under 25s. So next year might be down but as that younger group matures... very exciting.

- - - Updated - - -

BTW two first rounders for Beams who is 29! I know who won that trade and it wasn’t Collingwood

Brisbane wanted to keep beams, and beams was happy to stay. They were in the box seat, so Collingwood had to pay overs.
But collingwood think they are in the premiership window, so sacrificing the draft to chase a flag is a worthy shot.
Similar Brisbane, they are building but wont be chasing a flag until Beams is well into his 30's. So if they offer was good, take it.

Win/Win.

GWS letting sheil go wasnt good. Apparently they had cap space to hold him. I would have held on if I were them. They are in the window.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Trade Wrap - Kinnear Beatson - sydneyswans.com.au

Sounds like kinnear is willing to trade up prior or live if they think they are close to securing a “certain” player in the draft

and also use next years draft picks if need be to swap with another club

Prior to that he felt happy having 3 late picks in the 30s this draft after using I assume the first so picks on Blakey

[Go Swannies]

Here's my (co-authored) take for the ABC, based on our HPN work - Who won and lost the 2018 AFL Trade Period? - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

It's not a glamorous trade period, but Sydney project well out of it in terms of total future expected value (there are graphs!).

Clarke is a big piece of that. As a 21 year old with 40 games under his belt (even at a relatively low level of value to his team), history suggests he has a lot of footy ahead of him, probably more than Hannebery and Rohan combined (Thurlow barely figures and Newman might do a lot more at Carlton than he would have here).

We have also upgraded our position in the next two drafts by a lot (that Saints 2nd rounder is a nice acquisition), basically expanding the probability we get good value out of it, and because draft position is all abstract probabilities, this is the thing observers tend to underrate.

Thanks R-1 it's nice to see facts rather than (unsettled) gut feeling.

[rickmat]

I agree 100%, Ludwig, Robinson and Marsh are not going to improve but Maibaum and Rose are showing growth in their skills. Maibaum was mainstay in defence with COR all season and I was impressed with Rose''s GF where he put in both ends

[CureTheSane]

I wonder if anyone has considered what will likely eventuate next year and that perhaps the club is considering this future right now when they are trading and drafting.
Next year potentially no
McVeigh
Jack
Smith
Grundy
...then add in another 3 or 4 players who haven't stepped up and it will be quite the transition year...

[CureTheSane]

Oh, and I support Ludwig, both in his rights to belittle ex Swans players and also in raising awareness of breastfeeding.

Here is my image of support....

[O'Reilly Boy]

I agree 100%, Ludwig, Robinson and Marsh are not going to improve but Maibaum and Rose are showing growth in their skills. Maibaum was mainstay in defence with COR all season and I was impressed with Rose''s GF where he put in both ends

I agree about Rose and Maibaum. The former has been cast as a small forward, but in the Reserves games I saw he struck me as a useful outside mid who is capable of winning his own ball and has a bit of pace. Fluid runner in congestion, and a useful kick from outside the arc. I realise that there is a bit of a queue in front of him to get into the midfield, but I wouldn't overlook him.

Maibaum has also struck me as a quite big presence across the back line, and as a player who won't die wondering. Throws his size around, and seems to feel the game very intensely. The sort of player I'd like to have my back.