2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[liz]

The name didn't ring a bell but, having read the article, I do now recall watching one NEAFL game with a reasonably impressive ring-in ruckman.

I get the rugby parallels with Pyke, but I remember him reminding me that day of Naismith when he first played a few games in the NEAFL side (the year before he was rookied). He was a lumbering, out of shape bloke who, nonetheless showed natural instincts and decent aggression. Naismith played a few more NEAFL games in his pre-draft season so we got to have a bit more of a look at him. I don't recall many specifics of Blair's game, other than he was having a genuine dip.

The fact he's already 23 puts his physicality into a bit of perspective. But if you can get decent ruckmen cheaply, and then get them in reasonable physical nick, it doesn't matter if you only get a few playing seasons out of them. Even if you get them young (and pay more for them) you'll still probably only get a few playing seasons out of them anyway.

[707]

Potential Rookies: Sydney has sought and received permission to audition three New South Wales-based footballers before the draft.

Canberra Demons teammates Mitch Maguire and Angus Baker, both 20, plus Jack Blair, a raw 205cm ruckman from UNSW-Eastern Suburbs Bulldogs, are the trio.

Permission to train: Crows, Swans trialling fresh faces - AFL.com.au

Some more background of Jack Blair- a Pyke in the making?
205cm, 112kg rugby convert nicknamed 'Beanstalk' in rookie mix - AFL.com.au

I assume with the intention of possibly rookie listing them.

Liz & Ludwig are correct, a bid on Blakey at 7 doesn't affect our group of three, a bid at 6 puts Freo pick between our third and fourth picks. I'm thinking with Rozee powering up the boards that the earliest we see a pick is 7, Walsh, Luko, Rankine, King, Rozee, Smith firming to be the first six called, can't see Port or GC bothering to piss us off, Port will be glad to get an SA gun, GC are worrying about their existence! Blakey could even slip beyond 7.

[AB Swannie]

The argument that I have heard (mainly explained by Twomey) in regards to clubs not bidding on FS and academy players is in regards to perceptions that the player that they actually pick is 2nd prize and not as highly sought after. Eg if GC bid on Blakey at 6 and then end up taking Smith at 7, they are saying to Smith that they don’t rate him as highly. They’d rather say that they got the 6th best player in the draft and the player that they always wanted.

[Mountain Man]

Jack Blair is 23, a Victorian, who came up to Sydney University to do Science and I/T Management. He ended up as the joint Club Captain of the Students rugby in 2017; an impressive stat in a professional rugby team. He played in the 2nd row (whereas Pyke played as the full back so would have had more field awareness), but 1st grade Sydney club rugby is excellent standard.

The decision to change codes might not be as high profile as Carmichael Hunt or Folau, but it would be up there.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Did he play 1st grade ?

[liz]

The argument that I have heard (mainly explained by Twomey) in regards to clubs not bidding on FS and academy players is in regards to perceptions that the player that they actually pick is 2nd prize and not as highly sought after. Eg if GC bid on Blakey at 6 and then end up taking Smith at 7, they are saying to Smith that they don’t rate him as highly. They’d rather say that they got the 6th best player in the draft and the player that they always wanted.

I think that's a bit of a contorted argument. Most players are just happy to get drafted, and don't sulk because other players were picked ahead of them, not even when their club signalled an interest in another player first.

The Swans bid on Bowes before taking Florent, and then on Cumming before drafting Hayward. I don't see any lack of enthusiasm for the Swans from either Florent or Cumming just because an academy player was bid on before them.

[AB Swannie]

I pretty much agree with you. Just putting out there an alternative point that I’ve heard from Cal Twomey on the Road To The Draft Podcast. The fact is that FS and academy players have slid recently. The other reason is that the clubs aren’t putting in the same due diligence with these kids and so they drop slightly down their own draft boards due to a lack of information.

FWIW, I think Blakey will go at 9.

[Scottee]

Potential Rookies: Sydney has sought and received permission to audition three New South Wales-based footballers before the draft.

Canberra Demons teammates Mitch Maguire and Angus Baker, both 20, plus Jack Blair, a raw 205cm ruckman from UNSW-Eastern Suburbs Bulldogs, are the trio.

Permission to train: Crows, Swans trialling fresh faces - AFL.com.au

Some more background of Jack Blair- a Pyke in the making?
205cm, 112kg rugby convert nicknamed 'Beanstalk' in rookie mix - AFL.com.au

Don't know about the other two but Blair looks a very capable athlete and knows how to use his body one on one. Would be an excellent project player.

Sent from my SM-T805Y using Tapatalk

[Bloody Hell]

I think that's a bit of a contorted argument. Most players are just happy to get drafted, and don't sulk because other players were picked ahead of them, not even when their club signalled an interest in another player first.

The Swans bid on Bowes before taking Florent, and then on Cumming before drafting Hayward. I don't see any lack of enthusiasm for the Swans from either Florent or Cumming just because an academy player was bid on before them.

I think it's different for top 10 picks. There's alot more commentary around them, they get them on stage with their new jumpers, etc. For example, I could be wrong, but I don't think Port would make a bid with their early pick for the fact it'll push their pick 10 to 11.

[MattW]

Don't know about the other two but Blair looks a very capable athlete and knows how to use his body one on one. Would be an excellent project player.

Sent from my SM-T805Y using Tapatalk

Here's a piece in the Canberra Times about Maguire: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/topic/afl-draft-5u5.

[Ludwig]

I think it's different for top 10 picks. There's alot more commentary around them, they get them on stage with their new jumpers, etc. For example, I could be wrong, but I don't think Port would make a bid with their early pick for the fact it'll push their pick 10 to 11.

It doesn't matter since Blakey is the player pushing the pick out one place and he doesn't impact their placement for drafting 'pickable' players.

[liz]

It doesn't matter since Blakey is the player pushing the pick out one place and he doesn't impact their placement for drafting 'pickable' players.

I think Bloody Hell is suggesting that Port would prefer the prestige of whoever they pick up at no 10 (as it currently stands) lining up on stage along with the other top 10 picks. They therefore won't bid on Blakey with 5 as that would deny that opportunity to whoever they pick with their second pick.

I don't really agree with that thought process. It would rely on every other club with a pick from 6-9 (and then Port again at pick 10) choosing not to bid on Blakey. I think clubs will just bid if they would like to draft the player in question.

(And the Swans clearly didn't place much stock on Florent being part of the official top 10 when they chose to bid on Bowes, thus pushing Florent out to 11.)

[Auntie.Gerald]

2017 Rising Star: Mitchell Maguire - YouTube

2018 NEAFL MVP Contender: Mitch Maguire - YouTube

- - - Updated - - -

2018 Tribal Sport NEAFL Rising Star Nominee: Angus Baker - YouTube

[Bloody Hell]

2017 Rising Star: Mitchell Maguire - YouTube

2018 NEAFL MVP Contender: Mitch Maguire - YouTube

- - - Updated - - -

2018 Tribal Sport NEAFL Rising Star Nominee: Angus Baker - YouTube

You'd think the Swans will be on the lookout for a serious shutdown small defender this year through the rookie draft.

[rb4x]

I don't think the Swans bidding on Bowes at pick 10 ahead of Florent is really relevant to the situation this year with Blakey as the situation is quite different unless Gold Coast see the opportunity for a bit of tit for tat by bidding on Blakey at pick 6. If the Swans had not bid on Bowes then it would have given Gold Coast effectively a free pick at 11 which they could have used to bring in another highly rated player and they would have still have got Bowes by matching with later picks. Might have cost them only Scheer but they might well have taken even Hayward at 11.

North with Thomas expected to be around 12 and Collingwood with Quaynor expected to go around 14 are in a similar situation with the Swans as they have also declared their hands by trading down for points to match bids and all three teams will be on edge in the draft hoping for no vexatious bidding. GWS at 9 could really do a number on North and Collingwood by putting in successive bids on Thomas and Quaynor with nothing really to lose as if those teams did not match they would still end up with a player that arguably is worth pick 9. The problem is that there is no real cost in putting in a vexatious bid if you are certain there will be a matching bid with discount. One solution would be to put a cost on a team that makes a bid that is matched by perhaps dropping there next bid down one place in the order but that also has a problem if the bid is on a player that the team genuinely wants.