2018 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

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  • 707
    Veterans List
    • Aug 2009
    • 6204

    Here's a trading scenario to think about when Brisbane beat Carlton next week and go above Gold Coast on the ladder. That will mean GC hold pick 2. They will hold picks 2 & 3 after Tom Lynch exercises his FA status to go to Hawthorn/Collingwood/Richmond.

    What will Gold Coast do with picks 2 & 3? Draft a couple more talented kids who will play the go home card in two years?

    Or do they trade pick 3 to us for Jake Lloyd which gets them a senior player they are chasing and our first say pick 13/14 ish which will this year still draft a potentially great player?

    We could then draft a gun with pick 3 and use later picks to pay for Blakey when he is bid on. Just saying .....

    Comment

    • liz
      Veteran
      Site Admin
      • Jan 2003
      • 16770

      Originally posted by 707
      Here's a trading scenario to think about when Brisbane beat Carlton next week and go above Gold Coast on the ladder. That will mean GC hold pick 2. They will hold picks 2 & 3 after Tom Lynch exercises his FA status to go to Hawthorn/Collingwood/Richmond.

      What will Gold Coast do with picks 2 & 3? Draft a couple more talented kids who will play the go home card in two years?

      Or do they trade pick 3 to us for Jake Lloyd which gets them a senior player they are chasing and our first say pick 13/14 ish which will this year still draft a potentially great player?

      We could then draft a gun with pick 3 and use later picks to pay for Blakey when he is bid on. Just saying .....
      You'd like to think they've learned their lesson after giving up pick two last year for Weller, a handy player but hardly one to build a team around. At least they had the excuse then that he was contracted.

      They'd be mad to trade a similar pick to us this year for Lloyd. If they do land up with two top five picks (and lose Lynch), they could draft both the King twins, or one and a gun midfielder. Even getting a late first round pick wouldn't make it any more palatable for the Gold Coast.

      I think it's crazy to think they'd do that kind of deal. They'd be more likely to try and send him to the PSD (and hope Carlton weren't interested -which might be a risk, admittedly).

      I think a better bet might be to try and take one of their recent draftees off their hands who isn't getting a game. I'm not sure why someone like Will Brodie can't get a spot in their senior team, but if he's still on the outer by season end and is getting antsy, he'd be good to take off their hands. I don't like the idea of picking off the talent from struggling clubs (even if they're pinching one of ours) but if he's not settled at Gold Coast and they're not keen on him, he might be interested in a change of scene. And he's not as big a cost to them as passing up the chance at a King twin.

      Comment

      • Meg
        Go Swannies!
        Site Admin
        • Aug 2011
        • 4828

        Originally posted by Markwebbos
        I can't imagine there are many players who'd want to move to the Gold Coast, even for loads of money. Unless he's given up on playing finals or winning anything.
        Or he likes playing Bingo.

        Comment

        • Ludwig
          Veterans List
          • Apr 2007
          • 9359

          There was this article last week about Brodie and Jack Scrimshaw being frustrated about their lack of senior games (both are contracted till 2020): AFL trade news 2018: Carlton reportedly showing strong interest in Sun Jack Scrimshaw | Fox Sports

          If I were running GC, I'd be more interested in keeping these 2 players than chasing someone like Jake Lloyd.

          I agree with Liz, that Will Brodie would be a great trade in exchange for Lloyd if GC were really keen on him. It's hard to figure what GC are up to, they keep making one mistake after another.

          I mentioned somewhere else that GC also have WC's 1st rounder as well as their own and the likely next pick after if Lynch leaves. They may also be granted a priority pick and they have 2 second round picks as well. So there are lots of 'assets' that could be on the table if they want to pursue Jake Lloyd. Nic Newman is another that will be looking to move and we already know that Robbo would like out as well.

          It usually turns out that after all the chatter that players tend to re-sign with their clubs. Lloyd is a much appreciated player on a perennial finals team. How much attraction could there be in going into the wilderness of Gold Coast or Carlton?

          Apparently DeGoey re-signed with Collingwood for 2 years at $1.5 mil., hence foregoing $3.5 million guaranteed to go to NM, a club that looks to be on the rise. That must be a lot more than would be at stake in the Lloyd negotiations.

          Comment

          • Auntie.Gerald
            Veterans List
            • Oct 2009
            • 6478

            2018 for me is probably our time to peak unless we get a little bold with clearing the decks ala Hawks, north

            Port went for it spending and bringing in a big refresh of players

            We are potentially loosing a few more very experienced players and a fair few dollars

            Tippett - retired but his cap $ free 2019
            Macca - retire
            Jack - unsure about his zing to compete
            Hannes - young and might attract a pick
            Grundy - I think has another season
            Lloyd - not sure if we can match the dollars?

            Towers?
            Newman?
            Robinson?
            Naismith?
            Rose?
            Fox?
            Marsh?
            Foote?

            The possibilities, strategy and dollars make for fascinating viewing and I?m intrigued

            Mills should move into the midfield
            More attacking backs would be awesome
            Another outside player?
            Last edited by Auntie.Gerald; 1 July 2018, 10:57 PM.
            "be tough, only when it gets tough"

            Comment

            • mcs
              Travelling Swannie!!
              • Jul 2007
              • 8166

              Originally posted by Auntie.Gerald
              2018 for me is probably our time to peak unless we get a little bold with clearing the decks ala Hawks, north

              Port went for it spending and bringing in a big refresh of players

              We are potentially loosing a few more very experienced players and a fair few dollars

              Tippett - retired but his cap $ free 2019
              Macca - retire
              Jack - unsure about his zing to compete
              Hannes - young and might attract a pick
              Grundy - I think has another season
              Lloyd - not sure if we can match the dollars?

              Towers?
              Newman?
              Robinson?
              Naismith?
              Rose?
              Fox?
              Marsh?
              Foote?

              The possibilities, strategy and dollars make for fascinating viewing and I?m intrigued

              Mills should move into the midfield
              More attacking backs would be awesome
              Another outside player?
              I don't think 2018 represents a 'peak' at all - even with those players (or at least some of them) moving on. Perhaps it represents the last chance to win the flag for a few of the older guys - notably Mcveigh, Grundy, Jack in particularly. But a peak for the squad as a broader whole - I'm not convinced.

              Look at the profile of the rump coming through together that will only get better and better in the coming few years. They always say it takes really to somewhere between 50 and 100 games for players to really know they fit at AFL level and to move to a level close to their absolute best - the following list is impressive imho - even taking into account there are always players that overachieve, some that underachieve, and some that simply prove to be duds.

              McCartin - 6 games, 18 years old
              Ronke - 9 games, 21 years old
              Aliir Aliir - 19 games, 23 years old
              Melican - 20 games, 21 years old
              Florent - 23 games, 19 years old
              Hayward - 31 games, 19 years old
              Papley - 52 games, 21 years old
              Mills - 55 games, 21 years old
              Hewett - 62 games, 22 years old
              Jones - 66 games, 23 years old
              Heeney - 72 games, 22 years old

              That is a damn solid rump that across them are in theory a long way from their peak - while I'd argue Aliir and McCartin are both in places where there is still a lot of work to be done (though we couldn't have ever hoped for what we have seen from McCartin so far), most of the rest of that list are all already accomplished AFL footballers - with the promise of a lot more to come. If we manage to hold onto all of them (or at least the critical ones), then in 3 or 4 years time there is going to be half a team reaching their peak together- and some of those guys will simply be very good, but arguably some will potentially be elite level players. It is a hell of a base to work off imho.

              Plus others as well in the relatively young category/relatively inexperienced category that if good enough/still here are part of the next 'peak' per say - these are more iffy of course.
              Cunningham - 95 games, 24 years old (has improved quite a bit this year imho)
              Lloyd - 106 games, 24 years old (I think he will go but is clearly quality if we can keep him)
              Newman - 23 games, 25 years old
              Marsh - 23 games, 24 years old
              Naismith - 28 games, 25 years old
              Fox - 7 games, 25 years old
              Robinson - 19 games, 23 years old
              Dawson - 1 game, 21 years old

              Plus there are those yet to debut that could well play a big role for us that are still developing, or seem to be chomping at the bit (O'Riordan and Cameron) for a chance.

              On top of that you have Parker (25 yo), Reid (26) who still are relatively young, and Hanners (if we can fit whatever is ailing him) and Rampe that can play senior figures through that period as well, and maybe Buddy towards the beginning of it.

              Perhaps 2018 will represent an immediate peak, and there may be some drop off in 2019/2020, but if we get it right, that could very well be temporary. Keep that recruitment radar on sight as we have recently, and we are going to have a very, very good looking and overall very young squad in a couple of years time. Think of it this way - we are a good chance to be a top 4 team in 2018, despite having on our entire list just 12 players with >100 games experience, and of those 12, one has missed a hell of a lot of the season (Reid) and 3 are arguably genuinally struggling for form/fitness (Jack/Hanners/Rohan). That tells me that while the remaining players are doing plenty of the grunt work, our success is in part because a lot of our younger, quite inexperienced players are shouldering the load. And that is surely a good sign for the future - as so many of those guys will only get better.

              Therefore I would argue any moves in 2018 shouldn't be about 'topping up' or throwing the baby out with the bathwater, but where possible adding to that rump coming through in one form or another. We need to be bold, but not stupid.

              Stupid recruitment could derail what could be a truly fearsome team in a couple of seasons time, even when the likes of McVeigh, Jack, Grundy, perhaps Smith/Hanners/Kennedy are enjoying their well earned retirements - we are already not too far away imho from having a Premiership quality list (there are of course areas for improvement), and the fact that is made up of so many players with so much improvement in them is a very good sign for the future.
              Last edited by mcs; 3 July 2018, 04:24 PM.
              "You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."

              Comment

              • CureTheSane
                Carpe Noctem
                • Jan 2003
                • 5032

                Is it just me, or do Papley and Jones look older than 21 and 23?
                The difference between insanity and genius is measured only in success.

                Comment

                • YvonneH
                  Senior Player
                  • Sep 2011
                  • 1141

                  There seems to be a push (from the media) for the Suns to take J. McVeigh up there, ala Luke Hodge to Brisbane, to add experience to a very young team.
                  Would Stewie Dew see that as a good idea?
                  Would McVeigh like to get more coaching experience outside of the Sydney bubble, ala Brett Kirk?
                  Would do we on RWO think?

                  Comment

                  • 707
                    Veterans List
                    • Aug 2009
                    • 6204

                    Suns need all the help they can get, I'm worried they could be facing an exodus like the infamous Brisbane "go home five" of four years ago. Lynch almost certainly gone, talk now of Stephen May going as well :-(

                    I'm not bothered whatever McVeigh decides, think he'll end up on our coaching panel eventually.

                    Comment

                    • Markwebbos
                      Veterans List
                      • Jul 2016
                      • 7186

                      Gary Buckenara is surprisingly complimentary about our list

                      Category: | Herald Sun

                      Buckenara says: What a marvellous side. The Swans have been so consistent for so long and again they are premiership contenders in season 2018. I think they’ll definitely finish top four and at this stage, I predict it will be a Richmond v Sydney Grand Final. It’s a real credit not only to coach John Longmire but also to the recruiting and development teams because they’ve been able to discover young players while staying near the top of the ladder. I actually think, despite what some others say when they look at it on paper, the Swans have good depth...

                      My only real concerns for the Swans are the ruck position and the forward line. Naismith is out for the season and while Sinclair has improved out of sight, if he gets injured then that spells trouble. Up forward, they still haven’t quite found that second tall to help Buddy and will be hoping Sam Reid can get a decent run at it in the second half of the season. Having said that, I’ve been really impressed by what young Tom McCartin has produced in his first few games. Sydney have uncovered a little gem in Ben Ronke, who has been a good source of speed, tackling pressure and goals alongside Will Hayward, who I really like, and Ollie Florent who can also go into the midfield.

                      Comment

                      • Aprilbr
                        Senior Player
                        • Oct 2016
                        • 1803

                        It’s hard to argue with his analysis. A fit Reid returning should help our structure a lot. Our lone ruckman certainly needs to stay fit!


                        Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

                        Comment

                        • Ludwig
                          Veterans List
                          • Apr 2007
                          • 9359

                          Maybe Blakey can be a Patrick Cripps type midfielder. That would be nice.

                          If I had the #1 draft pick this year I would take Izak Rankine over Lukosius unless my club needed a key forward.

                          Blakey is looking a 5-10 pick, which would be fair value.

                          Comment

                          • Cosmic Wizard
                            recruit me pretty please!
                            • Sep 2005
                            • 620

                            Originally posted by Ludwig
                            Maybe Blakey can be a Patrick Cripps type midfielder. That would be nice.

                            If I had the #1 draft pick this year I would take Izak Rankine over Lukosius unless my club needed a key forward.

                            Blakey is looking a 5-10 pick, which would be fair value.
                            Saw the SA vs Vic City, both side undefeated, and Rankine just ripped them apart.

                            Have never seen anything like it; have no idea why he is not the No 1; made Lukosius and everyone else look second rate.

                            Other players who were really good; black player by the name of Frederick who broke the lines from the half back flanks, good forward like Hayward in Chapman, like what

                            I saw in Gundy young brother Riley; fast, 196cm, good football nouse and kept the King boy to not much, and Lewis, just keep going and going

                            Happy with any of the SA boys, but Clark and English from WA were also really impressive.

                            Still, if we can get that No 1, straight to Rankine.!
                            doof-doof

                            Comment

                            • Industrial Fan
                              Goodesgoodesgoodesgoodes!
                              • Aug 2006
                              • 3318

                              Not sure if this is the right thread, but; is it too early to talk about who got the better of the Rioli / Veszpremi draft picks?
                              He ate more cheese, than time allowed

                              Comment

                              • liz
                                Veteran
                                Site Admin
                                • Jan 2003
                                • 16770

                                Originally posted by Industrial Fan
                                Not sure if this is the right thread, but; is it too early to talk about who got the better of the Rioli / Veszpremi draft picks?
                                Might need to wait another couple of years to make a call on that one...

                                Comment

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