2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[erica]

That sounds like Lloyd. Turn on Daniher because he wants to leave Essendon.

[Markwebbos]

Buckenara is saying pick 9 is overs for Papley

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I'm in the majority and don't want us to pay overs (i.e. picks 5 & 9, or equivalent, let alone a player like Heeney or Blakey) to get Daniher this year.

However, some additional comments:

* EFC need Daniher more than we do, they don't have another KPF that I can think of

* We can't assume we would get Daniher "for free" next year. EFC would have the right to match our bid and, if his form and fitness is good enough to warrant us making the offer, they might actually do this, even though it hasn't happened before. So we still might need to trade for him (which i I believe has happened before i.e. trading for a free agent).

* JD's salary may leave EFC's books, but this doesn't mean we have to pay same to him. We will negotiate our own deal and, given his recent injury history, he may now be worth less

* JD's worth is further diminished because apparently Lloyd questions JD's commitment to getting the most out of himself as a player. It happened on trade radio in the context of discussing Brody Grundy before the Tom Harley interview and DB put the words in Lloyd's mouth, contrasting Grundy's commitment with Daniher's, but Lloyd didn't demur .

Swans may not want to go down the same path as Buddy and have to put together a mega-year deal to guarantee EFC can’t match.

[Ludwig]

If I heard correctly, Adrian Dodoro said Daniher should be ready to play late preseason, which sounds a lot like he's questionable for the start of next season and likely not to be in top shape in any case. EFC also has not offered him a contract, causing speculation that they are concerned about his fitness.

But.......nonetheless, they say he's worth at least pick 5 & 9. Now, you don't have to be a genius to be a footy journo, but the standard is incredibly low.

If he wants to move to Sydney for a lifestyle change, that's not going to change in 12 months. Why not let Essendon take all the risks. Let's play the game, but in the end, when we get to Wednesday deadline, we should make sure that we don't offer enough to get the deal done.

[KSAS]

I just missed hearing the Adrian Dodoro interview On SEN but heard Sam Maclure say he got the impression that Dodoro is frustrated with the Daniher talks. Hope that means we're playing hard ball as well.

[707]

I just missed hearing the Adrian Dodoro interview On SEN but heard Sam Maclure say he got the impression that Dodoro is frustrated with the Daniher talks. Hope that means we're playing hard ball as well.

Said Daniher and Fantasia will not be traded. Suits me fine.

[KSAS]

Said Daniher and Fantasia will not be traded. Suits me fine.

+1 Thanks.

[bloodspirit]

A couple more thoughts:

* if we were going to wait until next year, then wouldn't we have just told Daniher wait and hold off on committing to any further contract instead of exposing him to this circus now? I guess that's not how it went with Tim Kelly but I think it's still more likely

* Thus I conclude we've made some kind of a commitment to JD that we will get the deal done, albeit not a blank cheque. You'd think we'd have given some indication of how far we'd be prepared to go so that he knows we're genuine and doesn't feel let down if it doesn't work out. At the same time not sure if we'd reveal all and anyway the situation might evolve

* After talking to Tom Harley DB said his impression was that the deal would probably be done; he felt even more bullish about Papley

[waswan]

Papley news officially on the Swans website..... we are being softened

[Jimitron5000]

The media are certainly pushing the narrative that Daniher is worth a lot. Terms like irreplaceable, All-Australian, match-winner, best & fairest, coming into his peak years have been tossed about fairly liberally. His injury history and his contract status barely rate a mention.
Although I'd like to see him in red and white (would have been much easier if he did the right thing in his draft year) and am happy enough to give away our first pick for him, I would be loath for us to give away too much (as the media seems to think we will have to).

On to other things, how can we turn Darcy Cameron into Brayden Sier?

[Scottee]

The loss of Papley and Jones and (believe it or not Rose) effectively removes our 3 quickest layers from the senior list. None of the best 22 are as quick. Unless we import some seriously quick and explosive mids it will be up to the likes of inexperienced and unproven McInerney, Foot and Bell (who isn't that quick) to fill the void. Makes the intent to get Daniher even more strange given the massive imbalance that is already obvious. I have this horrible feeling of deja vu going back to the idiotic trading of Terry Daniher and his brother to Essendon for a cooked dud in return. My theory is that this was a deliberate attempt to undermine the club becuase it was totally obvious what was happening and that the trade was a disaster. Hate to be paranoid. But could this be happeing again. Seems that too many cards are falling into the wrong place at the same time.

[stevoswan]

While I greatly respect Ludwig's knowledge of the Swans and dedication to the cause, there is no way that Essendon will trade Daniher for a second round draft pick.

Which is the point.....we don't want to pay overs for him this year, we want him for free next year.

[Ralph Dawg]

The media are certainly pushing the narrative that Daniher is worth a lot. Terms like irreplaceable, All-Australian, match-winner, best & fairest, coming into his peak years have been tossed about fairly liberally. His injury history and his contract status barely rate a mention.
Although I'd like to see him in red and white (would have been much easier if he did the right thing in his draft year) and am happy enough to give away our first pick for him, I would be loath for us to give away too much (as the media seems to think we will have to).

On to other things, how can we turn Darcy Cameron into Brayden Sier?

I'll go one better and get you Brodie Grundy as well. I reckon he would love living in Sydney, away from psycho Collingwood and Adelaide supporters. He strikes me as the sort of guy who would love the inner west or eastern suburbs. So here goes:

5,9, Cameron, Reid - Pies need targets up front
We get Grundy (7 year contract) and Sier (or Rupert Wills)

More realistically, maybe a 2nd rounder and Cameron for Sure or straight swap Cameron for Wills.

I know it won't happen but can't blame me dreaming!

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Sure = Sier

[Auntie.Gerald]

If a club offers more then us next year we miss out altogether and that is a very real concern for us ie who else can bring to the swans like JD ?

When ur a 15th to 9th type team on the ladder like we could be next year it really doesn’t make much difference taking an injured player or two a year early and letting them rehab while paying them.......the key is we want this players fit and ready in the seasons that count which is more like 2021/2022 for us

Remembering that JDs contract and generally any other player has significant downside when games are not played ie we are protected via games not played

If JD signs a contract with us for 2020 and he doesn’t play a game we may only pay him 500-600k for the season but the upside is that we have him in our squad and that is a massive achievement.

My understanding is that most players can loose up to 30-40% of their contract if they don’t play

A fully fit JD could contribute to an extra few wins per season and that is the difference last season between coming 9th or 15th

What other player can we get to the swans that would have that effect on games ?

Dusty ?
Fyfe?
Dangerfield?

They ain’t coming

[Jeynez]

Which is the point.....we don't want to pay overs for him this year, we want him for free next year.

He won’t be free though. He will be a RFA. Essendon can still match and force a trade.

And I have to agree with Lloyd: given he is irreplaceable for the Bombers, they will play hard ball this trade period. And unless we offer Joe a Buddy style contract next year, the Bombers will likely match our offer. Which will be very complicated if we want to draft Gulden & Campbell.

[MattW]

The loss of Papley and Jones and (believe it or not Rose) effectively removes our 3 quickest layers from the senior list. None of the best 22 are as quick. Unless we import some seriously quick and explosive mids it will be up to the likes of inexperienced and unproven McInerney, Foot and Bell (who isn't that quick) to fill the void. Makes the intent to get Daniher even more strange given the massive imbalance that is already obvious. I have this horrible feeling of deja vu going back to the idiotic trading of Terry Daniher and his brother to Essendon for a cooked dud in return. My theory is that this was a deliberate attempt to undermine the club becuase it was totally obvious what was happening and that the trade was a disaster. Hate to be paranoid. But could this be happeing again. Seems that too many cards are falling into the wrong place at the same time.

Blakey, Florent, Ronke, Hayward and Cunningham are at least as quick as Papley and Jones, definitely quicker than Rose. Then there is Stoddart and Ling outside the 22.