2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[cruiser]

Didn’t we do that with Spider from Hawthorn?

Yes, but not having Spider play with us in 2006 was the difference between winning and losing the ‘06 Grand Final.

[Ludwig]

My strategy with Jones and Cameron:

• St Kilda has nothing to offer for Jones in picks this years. If he wants to go to the Saints, it would have to be a swap fro Blake Acres plus a bit, or their 2020 2nd and 3rd round picks. I would say Hunter Clark, but I can't see STK giving him up.
• I would offer Cameron a 2 year contract, promise him the starting ruck position at the start of next year and about 10 games to prove himself, if he's fit and in form. If it doesn't work out, we tell him that we will help him find another club next year. I can't see us getting through the season with Naismith, although I do think he's a good ruckman.

[Aprilbr]

SEN radio about to interview Harley after 8 am. It will be interesting to hear what he has to say given he denied all with the same people (Garry Lyon and Tim Watson) a couple of months back.

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[Ludwig]

Mathew Lloyd has lost his mind. He thinks the Swans have to come up with an elite player like Heeney or Blakey, plus pick 5 to get Joe Daniher.

Let's remember what's being offered. It's effectively getting Joe Daniher for 1 season, 2020, because after that he would come for nothing as a free agent. Essendon would save about 900k in salary and get Joe out of the club in a difficult year. The Swans would be the ones to pick up that tab. Plus the Swans would assume the risk of Joe's injury worries.

Under the circumstances, Joe Daniher is not worth more than a 2nd round draft pick, and that would be a gift. Essendon can wait a year, take the risk he could be worth nothing, and have him moping around the club another year in the hope that they get a mid 1st round compo pick, but is it really worth it? They should take pick 26 and be happy.

We would be doing Essendon a big favour taking him off their hands.

PS: If we don't get a waiver from the AFL that we can still take both Campbell and Gulden next year, even if we finish top 4, then I would dedicate next year to a development year and look to 2021 performance ahead of 2020 performance. And forget about Daniher. Let Papley and Jones go for the right price and take the good picks to the draft.

[Blood Fever]

Mathew Lloyd has lost his mind. He thinks the Swans have to come up with an elite player like Heeney or Blakey, plus pick 5 to get Joe Daniher.

Let's remember what's being offered. It's effectively getting Joe Daniher for 1 season, 2020, because after that he would come for nothing as a free agent. Essendon would save about 900k in salary and get Joe out of the club in a difficult year. The Swans would be the ones to pick up that tab. Plus the Swans would assume the risk of Joe's injury worries.

Under the circumstances, Joe Daniher is not worth more than a 2nd round draft pick, and that would be a gift. Essendon can wait a year, take the risk he could be worth nothing, and have him moping around the club another year in the hope that they get a mid 1st round compo pick, but is it really worth it? They should take pick 26 and be happy.

We would be doing Essendon a big favour taking him off their hands.

Logic doesn't cut it in the Melbourne footy fantasy world

[AB Swannie]

My strategy with Jones and Cameron:

• St Kilda has nothing to offer for Jones in picks this years. If he wants to go to the Saints, it would have to be a swap fro Blake Acres plus a bit, or their 2020 2nd and 3rd round picks. I would say Hunter Clark, but I can't see STK giving him up.
• I would offer Cameron a 2 year contract, promise him the starting ruck position at the start of next year and about 10 games to prove himself, if he's fit and in form. If it doesn't work out, we tell him that we will help him find another club next year. I can't see us getting through the season with Naismith, although I do think he's a good ruckman.

I like Cameron but he is a FWD/RUCK and that has largely been our problem with our ruck stocks lately. A lot of FWD/RUCKs rather than pure rucks - Sinclair, Cameron, Amartey, McLean with only Naismith a real option to be a pure ruck. Knoll being added has potential there but has not been a viable option.

Now that Daniher is coming, Cameron is at least 3rd in line and possibly further if you include Reid.

[Aprilbr]

Harley claims that he did not discuss a potential move with Daniher at their infamous meeting back in August. Also they haven't spoken since. The move evolved naturally according to Harley in just the past one to two weeks. Not sure I believe all of this!

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[Aprilbr]

While I greatly respect Ludwig's knowledge of the Swans and dedication to the cause, there is no way that Essendon will trade Daniher for a second round draft pick.

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[Aprilbr]

Harley must be doing the media rounds today. Now that he has done SEN, he is doing Trade Radio soon. Same message I expect.

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[Ludwig]

I like Cameron but he is a FWD/RUCK and that has largely been our problem with our ruck stocks lately. A lot of FWD/RUCKs rather than pure rucks - Sinclair, Cameron, Amartey, McLean with only Naismith a real option to be a pure ruck. Knoll being added has potential there but has not been a viable option.

Now that Daniher is coming, Cameron is at least 3rd in line and possibly further if you include Reid.

Cameron has been a ruckman who became a forward in the WAFL to broaden his game. I would say he's a ruckmen who can also be damaging as a forward. He's like Sinclair, but better as a ruckman.

While I greatly respect Ludwig's knowledge of the Swans and dedication to the cause, there is no way that Essendon will trade Daniher for a second round draft pick.

That's the point. He shouldn't come to the Swans this year. Daniher coming to the Swans this year for whatever is much worse than him coming to the Swans next year as a Free agent. We keep all our draft picks. Maybe Papley stays.

. . . . . . . . .

A couple of other thoughts:

1. Brodie Grundy is looking for a 7 year contract. I'd rather go after Grundy than Daniher.
2. I read that Andrew Gaff has a get out clause in his new contract that lets him become an unrestricted free agent this year. He could be on the move and something to think about. His preference would be to go to a Melbourne club, but worth a look.

[Aprilbr]

Harley just repeated his stance about Daniher on TR ie it was a recent evolution rather than something that started months ago. I doubt that many believe him.

His comments about Papley suggest to me that they are likely to do a deal there if it's favourable. Jones is definitely gone as he seemed resigned to that based on their "close family".

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[Mountain Man]

Personally, I can't wait for the "score" given to the Swans at the end of the Trade period - hopefully D-, as we failed to land Daniher or "get done" the Papley and Jones trades.

I would be delighted with this; but I would want some strategist/spin merchant to be working on an effective story to put out for the less involved Sydney public who might be concerned at the Swans supposed failure.

With GWS getting to a grand final, we need to ensure our place in the Sydney sun.

[Beerman]

We can't take a chance and finish top 4 next year or we might lose access to either Campbell or Gulden, as I interpret the rules as they stand. This is grossly unfair, as it's just happenstance that 2 top picks fall in a single draft. The rule should take into account that we never had more than 1 top 20 academy pick in a draft and will not have one this year. The rule should cover, at a minimum, what happened in the previous year. I think we should appeal the AFL for a rule modification.

That's another reason why we shouldn't get Daniher this year, as we don't want to improve our chances of a top 4 finish. No Daniher and losing Papley and Jones should be enough to keep us out of top 4 contention.

The AFL is encouraging tanking by this rule.

I don't think there's much danger of us finishing top 4. In fact, I think we won't make the finals but will finish somewhere in the 9-12 range. We're not a bad team but we were not close to finals level quality this year, and it's going to take time. I think it will be 2021 before we are seriously back in the hunt for top 4 again.

[KSAS]

Harley just repeated his stance about Daniher on TR ie it was a recent evolution rather than something that started months ago. I doubt that many believe him.

His comments about Papley suggest to me that they are likely to do a deal there if it's favourable. Jones is definitely gone as he seemed resigned to that based on their "close family".

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Trade Winds: Harley defends Joe catch-up, Saints win race for speedy Swan - AFL.com.au

[bloodspirit]

I'm in the majority and don't want us to pay overs (i.e. picks 5 & 9, or equivalent, let alone a player like Heeney or Blakey) to get Daniher this year.

However, some additional comments:

* EFC need Daniher more than we do, they don't have another KPF that I can think of

* We can't assume we would get Daniher "for free" next year. EFC would have the right to match our bid and, if his form and fitness is good enough to warrant us making the offer, they might actually do this, even though it hasn't happened before. So we still might need to trade for him (which i I believe has happened before i.e. trading for a free agent).

* JD's salary may leave EFC's books, but this doesn't mean we have to pay same to him. We will negotiate our own deal and, given his recent injury history, he may now be worth less

* JD's worth is further diminished because apparently Lloyd questions JD's commitment to getting the most out of himself as a player. It happened on trade radio in the context of discussing Brody Grundy before the Tom Harley interview and DB put the words in Lloyd's mouth, contrasting Grundy's commitment with Daniher's, but Lloyd didn't demur .