2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Blood Fever]

It's interesting to see where we are now lined up with a ten year lag. I feel that we are mirroring the 10 year period from the 2005 premiership with the period starting in 2015. We just lost the premiership in both 2006 and 2016, which kicked off a decline in performance.

Perhaps like 10 years earlier, this will be the year we miss the finals, only to bounce back again the following year to kick off the strongest run of success since the club came to Sydney.

From the little we saw of Matt Ling in the 2nd half of the NEAFL game, I will make the bold statement that Ling will be an outright star. I said in another thread that I thought when Ling and Stoddart were regulars in the seniors, which I believe will be next year, then a new era of Swans' success will begin.

Everyone loves winning the Premiership in 2012, but I really enjoyed 2011. You could see the team was onto something good and could look forward to some happy times in the years to follow.

NOTE: I tried to put a table in this post, but only got code. I will try to figure out how to do it and post it later on.

Really started in 2010 with Kennedy, Mumford and McGlynn. Finished one kick away from a prelim.

[Ludwig]

Really started in 2010 with Kennedy, Mumford and McGlynn. Finished one kick away from a prelim.

Which would correspond with 2020 with a ten year lag.

[dimelb]

Here's Jake Niall's view of trading Buddy:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/why-buddy-franklin-is-almost-untradeable-20190417-p51f3r.html

[Ralph Dawg]

Here's Jake Niall's view of trading Buddy:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/...17-p51f3r.html

I agree 99% with Jake. However, up here in Brisvegas, the Lions had Beams proclaim his love for the team and how he was not going anywhere(team management saying exactly the same), all at the club's best and fairest. Then low and behold, he ended back at Collingwood. I know Buddy's situation is very different, but some strange stuff can happen during trading week.......

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Really started in 2010 with Kennedy, Mumford and McGlynn. Finished one kick away from a prelim.

If only we could find our next McGlynn, JPK and Mummy. Can't see that happening with Thurlow, Clarke and Menzel ????

[Ludwig]

If only we could find our next McGlynn, JPK and Mummy. Can't see that happening with Thurlow, Clarke and Menzel ??????

The corresponding year would be this one, not last year. Something different this time round is that in the previous period we went through a draft drought and picked so many duds. But now we have put 7 strong drafts together, which has resulted in having a large contingent of quality under 25 players to take us forward for some time to come.

We should do okay even without recruiting from other clubs. The main thing is not to lose any of our good young players, like Jones, who we've put 6 years into developing. The Swans usually don't lose players they want to keep, and we shouldn't have the salary cap pressure we've had coming out of the COLA loss years.

[liz]

I think Niall has got about 75% of the way there. It's good to see him acknowledge that we were pretty unlucky in 2016. Putting aside reservations about selecting certain players who had been injured, and the contributions of the men in white (or whatever colour they were wearing that day), I strongly believe that had Franklin not injured himself in the opening minutes, we would have won that game comfortably. But with him robbed of his explosiveness, our very young forward line (Papley, Hewett, Richards, Heeney) lost their way. Sure a couple of other players were below their best too, but I believe a rampaging JPK and fully functional Buddy would have steeled the rest of the group sufficiently.

What seems to be being missed (and Niall misses it too), is that Buddy isn't at the Swans because they chased him hard with a financial deal too hard to resist. First and foremost he's at the Swans because he wanted to live in Sydney. Clarkson has acknowledged that he knew life in the intense spotlight applied by the Melbourne media was getting to Franklin during his last couple of seasons at Hawthorn. Not only did a move north suit his marital circumstances, it gave him a chance to escape to a place where he could live an almost normal life for 6 days a week. Those speculating about him seeing out the end of his career in Melbourne are paying no regard to the fact he's an individual with lifestyle preferences that almost certainly don't fit their agenda.

I also think Niall's conclusion that he's on some inevitable football decline are premature to say the least. It was barely six months ago that he was named captain of the AA team. Now, after a short month at the start of the season, playing in a semi-functioning team and coming off an almost non-existent pre-season, he is being written off as a has-been. Even players in their mid-20s comment how hard it is to play when they don't have a solid pre-season campaign. I know we live in a goldfish bowl world, where the only thing that matters is what happened five minutes ago, and we crave instant answers and even more immediate gratification. But the real world ain't like that.

[Melbourne_Blood]

I think Niall has got about 75% of the way there. It's good to see him acknowledge that we were pretty unlucky in 2016. Putting aside reservations about selecting certain players who had been injured, and the contributions of the men in white (or whatever colour they were wearing that day), I strongly believe that had Franklin not injured himself in the opening minutes, we would have won that game comfortably. But with him robbed of his explosiveness, our very young forward line (Papley, Hewett, Richards, Heeney) lost their way. Sure a couple of other players were below their best too, but I believe a rampaging JPK and fully functional Buddy would have steeled the rest of the group sufficiently.

What seems to be being missed (and Niall misses it too), is that Buddy isn't at the Swans because they chased him hard with a financial deal too hard to resist. First and foremost he's at the Swans because he wanted to live in Sydney. Clarkson has acknowledged that he knew life in the intense spotlight applied by the Melbourne media was getting to Franklin during his last couple of seasons at Hawthorn. Not only did a move north suit his marital circumstances, it gave him a chance to escape to a place where he could live an almost normal life for 6 days a week. Those speculating about him seeing out the end of his career in Melbourne are paying no regard to the fact he's an individual with lifestyle preferences that almost certainly don't fit their agenda.

I also think Niall's conclusion that he's on some inevitable football decline are premature to say the least. It was barely six months ago that he was named captain of the AA team. Now, after a short month at the start of the season, playing in a semi-functioning team and coming off an almost non-existent pre-season, he is being written off as a has-been. Even players in their mid-20s comment how hard it is to play when they don't have a solid pre-season campaign. I know we live in a goldfish bowl world, where the only thing that matters is what happened five minutes ago, and we crave instant answers and even more immediate gratification. But the real world ain't like that.

Agree with the ‘ buddy on the decline’ being very premature , was going to post something similar in that regard. His kicking was way off last week but it wasn’t too shabby against the crows ! And whilst overall output is down( so far - 4 rounds in ...) , he’s shown enough in glimpses to suggest he’s still a formidable player. Keen to see how he goes against a Tigers side missing Rance, who always plays well against him ( yet bud still manages 2-3 most of the time ). Grimes is a good defender too but wouldn’t know too much about playing on buddy. Riewoldt always seems to either play well against us , or contribute some great things at crucial moments , so with those two out we are a sneaky chance this weekend. Plus at Etihad , better ground for us than the G .


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[S.S. Bleeder]

Yep excellent news

It would be even better if he had a few good games for us then said that he felt like he was walking on eggshells in his final year at Geelong.

[S.S. Bleeder]

It would be interesting to see how often we kick it to bud vs say Richmond kicks the ball to riewoldt inside the 50

Is it only slightly different ie negligible

We've always looked for the easy (as opposed to best) option when it comes to entering our fwd 50. It happened with Plugger, it happened with BBBBH and it's happening with Buddy. We need to start opening our eyes and looking at other forwards who are free.

[Blood Fever]

Here's Jake Niall's view of trading Buddy:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/...17-p51f3r.html

Credit where it's due. Excellent article.

[S.S. Bleeder]

Agree with the ‘ buddy on the decline’ being very premature , was going to post something similar in that regard. His kicking was way off last week but it wasn’t too shabby against the crows ! And whilst overall output is down( so far - 4 rounds in ...) , he’s shown enough in glimpses to suggest he’s still a formidable player. Keen to see how he goes against a Tigers side missing Rance, who always plays well against him ( yet bud still manages 2-3 most of the time ). Grimes is a good defender too but wouldn’t know too much about playing on buddy. Riewoldt always seems to either play well against us , or contribute some great things at crucial moments , so with those two out we are a sneaky chance this weekend. Plus at Etihad , better ground for us than the G .


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Buddy's kicking did appear a little off last weekend but I don't recall any shots a goal where he actually had sufficient space or time to wind up on his kick. They were all somewhat rushed. As far as I'm concerned his kicking is fine.

[Markwebbos]

Buddy's kicking did appear a little off last weekend but I don't recall any shots a goal where he actually had sufficient space or time to wind up on his kick. They were all somewhat rushed. As far as I'm concerned his kicking is fine.

Careful. They burn people at the stake on RAWO for that kind of heresy

[Aprilbr]

Credit where it's due. Excellent article.

Yes agreed. I thought that he was spot on in most of what he said.

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[Markwebbos]

I think Niall has got about 75% of the way there. It's good to see him acknowledge that we were pretty unlucky in 2016. Putting aside reservations about selecting certain players who had been injured, and the contributions of the men in white (or whatever colour they were wearing that day), I strongly believe that had Franklin not injured himself in the opening minutes, we would have won that game comfortably. But with him robbed of his explosiveness, our very young forward line (Papley, Hewett, Richards, Heeney) lost their way. Sure a couple of other players were below their best too, but I believe a rampaging JPK and fully functional Buddy would have steeled the rest of the group sufficiently.

What seems to be being missed (and Niall misses it too), is that Buddy isn't at the Swans because they chased him hard with a financial deal too hard to resist. First and foremost he's at the Swans because he wanted to live in Sydney. Clarkson has acknowledged that he knew life in the intense spotlight applied by the Melbourne media was getting to Franklin during his last couple of seasons at Hawthorn. Not only did a move north suit his marital circumstances, it gave him a chance to escape to a place where he could live an almost normal life for 6 days a week. Those speculating about him seeing out the end of his career in Melbourne are paying no regard to the fact he's an individual with lifestyle preferences that almost certainly don't fit their agenda.

I also think Niall's conclusion that he's on some inevitable football decline are premature to say the least. It was barely six months ago that he was named captain of the AA team. Now, after a short month at the start of the season, playing in a semi-functioning team and coming off an almost non-existent pre-season, he is being written off as a has-been. Even players in their mid-20s comment how hard it is to play when they don't have a solid pre-season campaign. I know we live in a goldfish bowl world, where the only thing that matters is what happened five minutes ago, and we crave instant answers and even more immediate gratification. But the real world ain't like that.

I think it's highly unlikely Buddy will be traded, although I think if it cost us $1m over 3 years to offload him and his salary (as Niall suggests), that's not ridiculous, that's only $333k per year. The HS article pointed out we offered $2m more over the life of the deal than GW$ did, so perhaps we could have got him for less. I know it's heresy, but its possible that, as a player, he may not be worth $1.4m next year and $1m the next.

We do have some pretty glaring holes in our list, either current or imminent, including at full-forward. Some tough decisions are going to have to be made in order to rectify the situation. I think the process started last year when the club drew a line under Rohan and Hanners. We've chosen to play an inexperienced team rather than persist with those two (even if we did try and trade in some cheaper experience).

Kennedy is 31 this year, 32 next, if you take him out of our midfield, we'd be even more stuffed than at present. Do we think his replacement is currently on the Swans list, in the draft, or playing at another club? If it's going to be Rowbottom, surely he has to get into the AFL pretty soon.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Careful. They burn people at the stake on RAWO for that kind of heresy

Agree it’s a big generalisation I feel that bud gets kicked to more then riewoldt or other forwards like Hawkins or Taylor etc

I suspect it isn’t much more - it may even be less

We can’t say either way without the data