2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Markwebbos]

We shouldn't sell the house to get Grundy. If he wants to come, then of course it would be negligent not to explore options but to entice him to us, it would cost so much.
In my opinion, we are one KP defender, one mid with elite disposal, one competitive ruckman to support Sinclair and one zippy small forward away from being a top side. If we through the lot a Grundy, still won't cover the deficiencies around the rest of the park.

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*threw

RD I agree with all those, the KPD must be what you are referring to on the match thread when you say our KPD stocks are depleted. I also think we are short a KPF too given Buddy's age and inability to play out a full season.

Is Maibaum a viable option, or is he going to be delisted at the end of the year?

[MattW]

What aspect of the ruck are you referring to? Sinclair competes well around the ground, knows his way around goals. Yes, he gets beaten in the hit outs but is that really important? Grundy gets first tap constantly yet the pies are not exactly setting the world on fire. Ditto Gawn and the Dees. Last night Freo dominated the ruck contest yet only beat us by 1, in a game that we otherwise competed well. If the tap was so important, McLean v Sandi / Lobb / Darcy should've translated into a flogging. The tap is over rated and not worth selling the farm to attain by chasing Grundy. Preuss, R O'Brien maybe Archie Smith would be more sensible.

Fremantle's domination in the ruck last night (53-18 hit-outs) resulted in them more than doubling our clearance count (46-22). We only got within 1 because we were better than them at the scramble and were excellent in defence. Had we matched them in the clearances we would likely have won.

I didn't watch Collingwood yesterday, but when they beat us earlier in the year Grundy's dominance over Sinclair was a major reason for their win over us in a close game. As the game wore on Grundy continually beat Sinclair to the ball, particularly at throw-ins and just tapped it wherever he wanted. Grundy won hit-outs over Sinclair 64-20 and Collingwood won clearances 49-38.

It was the same against Melbourne (lost hit-outs 73-13 and clearances 44-37), Brisbane (lost hit-outs 64-37 and clearances 53-42), Geelong (lost hit-outs 42-34 and clearances 44-31) and Carlton (lost hit-outs 55-20 and clearances 45-32).

While there are a few exceptions (beaten by Richmond and Bulldogs despite winning hit-outs; beat North and Essendon despite losing hit-outs), generally, where the hit-outs counts have been closer or we have been on top, we have had a better chance of winning the clearances and the game.

We are third last in hit-outs. Among 39 people classified as ruckmen who have recorded stats this year, Sinclair is:
- 23rd in average hit-outs
- 30th in hit-outs to advantage per game
- 34th in hit-out win percentage and
- 37th in hit-outs to advantage percentage.

I can't get a team stat, but based on those I would reckon we are last in the league in hit-outs to advantage percentage differential, which would mean that our midfielders are having to get the ball off the opposition from ruck contests more than any other in the competition, which has got to have an impact on performance.

Unsurprisingly, Naismith's stats are a lot better. If you open it up to career stats for people classed as ruckmen, Naismith is:
- 14th in average hit-outs
- 11th in hit-outs to advantage per game
- 15th in hit-out win percentage
- 11th in hit-outs to advantage percentage.

It is worth noting finally, Preuss' strong stats at ruck contests this year. He has:
- the best hit-out win percentage of any ruckman who attends more than 3% of ruck contests a game
- the third best hit-outs to advantage percentage of any ruckman who attends more than 20% of ruck contests a game.

He is playing as a second ruck, so many of those contests are probably against other second rucks, but they are still impressive. He's obviously not as good around the ground as Grundy, but he would be better than what we have right now in the ruck although I would rather Naismith if he can stay fit.

[Blood Fever]

Fremantle's domination in the ruck last night (53-18 hit-outs) resulted in them more than doubling our clearance count (46-22). We only got within 1 because we were better than them at the scramble and were excellent in defence. Had we matched them in the clearances we would likely have won.

I didn't watch Collingwood yesterday, but when they beat us earlier in the year Grundy's dominance over Sinclair was a major reason for their win over us in a close game. As the game wore on Grundy continually beat Sinclair to the ball, particularly at throw-ins and just tapped it wherever he wanted. Grundy won hit-outs over Sinclair 64-20 and Collingwood won clearances 49-38.

It was the same against Melbourne (lost hit-outs 73-13 and clearances 44-37), Brisbane (lost hit-outs 64-37 and clearances 53-42), Geelong (lost hit-outs 42-34 and clearances 44-31) and Carlton (lost hit-outs 55-20 and clearances 45-32).

While there are a few exceptions (beaten by Richmond and Bulldogs despite winning hit-outs; beat North and Essendon despite losing hit-outs), generally, where the hit-outs counts have been closer or we have been on top, we have had a better chance of winning the clearances and the game.

We are third last in hit-outs. Among 39 people classified as ruckmen who have recorded stats this year, Sinclair is:
- 23rd in average hit-outs
- 30th in hit-outs to advantage per game
- 34th in hit-out win percentage and
- 37th in hit-outs to advantage percentage.

I can't get a team stat, but based on those I would reckon we are last in the league in hit-outs to advantage percentage differential, which would mean that our midfielders are having to get the ball off the opposition from ruck contests more than any other in the competition, which has got to have an impact on performance.

Unsurprisingly, Naismith's stats are a lot better. If you open it up to career stats for people classed as ruckmen, Naismith is:
- 14th in average hit-outs
- 11th in hit-outs to advantage per game
- 15th in hit-out win percentage
- 11th in hit-outs to advantage percentage.

It is worth noting finally, Preuss' strong stats at ruck contests this year. He has:
- the best hit-out win percentage of any ruckman who attends more than 3% of ruck contests a game
- the third best hit-outs to advantage percentage of any ruckman who attends more than 20% of ruck contests a game.

He is playing as a second ruck, so many of those contests are probably against other second rucks, but they are still impressive. He's obviously not as good around the ground as Grundy, but he would be better than what we have right now in the ruck although I would rather Naismith if he can stay fit.

Excellent post and statistical analysis MattW. Explains why we are hanging in the ring with Naismith.

[Ludwig]

BTW, Brodie Grundy is still contracted for 2020, and I would think that Collingwood simply won't let him go. He will be a RFA next year.

As for us, I can't see us being able to afford both Buddy and Brodie. Besides, it would cost us too much in players and draft picks. I'm not sure that we need a ruckman, but rather a fit ruckman.

[707]

..................After last nights result and looking through the remaining matches, and a lot of water to go under the bridge in this year of upsets but I'd say pick 5 is just about a lock.........

Well, what was I saying, Saints upset win and we have our hands on pick 4!

[Melbourne_Blood]

BTW, Brodie Grundy is still contracted for 2020, and I would think that Collingwood simply won't let him go. He will be a RFA next year.

As for us, I can't see us being able to afford both Buddy and Brodie. Besides, it would cost us too much in players and draft picks. I'm not sure that we need a ruckman, but rather a fit ruckman.

Chance it could get to pick 3 too, carlton have a pretty tough run home ( not as tough as ours ) but they are playing much better footy and I think they could win another 3 from here .


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[Cosmic Wizard]

Just in case you are interested.

Indicative draft order after round 18.

Draft Pick #
SYD 4 Sydney Swans
SYD 23 Sydney Swans
SYD 40 Sydney Swans
SYD 52 Sydney Swans
SYD 57 Sydney Swans
SYD 58 Sydney Swans
SYD 76 Sydney Swans

[barry]

Grundy is the difference between Collingwood finishing top 4 and missing the finals. They will never let him go.

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The giants had to risk playing two lumbering ruckmen against him to break even. That tactic won't last long.

[Blood Fever]

Grundy monstered GWS in the ruck but still got hammered. He had 30 possessions, a number of them clearances where he took the ball out of the ruck and kicked it forward.

[Markwebbos]

Yet Geelong allegedly lost to the Hawks (and others) because Stanley was “monstered” in the ruck. And its their biggest concern going into finals.

Well according to Tim Watson on SEN

The "number one concern" for Geelong that could cost them a final

[Ralph Dawg]

Fremantle's domination in the ruck last night (53-18 hit-outs) resulted in them more than doubling our clearance count (46-22). We only got within 1 because we were better than them at the scramble and were excellent in defence. Had we matched them in the clearances we would likely have won.

I didn't watch Collingwood yesterday, but when they beat us earlier in the year Grundy's dominance over Sinclair was a major reason for their win over us in a close game. As the game wore on Grundy continually beat Sinclair to the ball, particularly at throw-ins and just tapped it wherever he wanted. Grundy won hit-outs over Sinclair 64-20 and Collingwood won clearances 49-38.

It was the same against Melbourne (lost hit-outs 73-13 and clearances 44-37), Brisbane (lost hit-outs 64-37 and clearances 53-42), Geelong (lost hit-outs 42-34 and clearances 44-31) and Carlton (lost hit-outs 55-20 and clearances 45-32).

While there are a few exceptions (beaten by Richmond and Bulldogs despite winning hit-outs; beat North and Essendon despite losing hit-outs), generally, where the hit-outs counts have been closer or we have been on top, we have had a better chance of winning the clearances and the game.

We are third last in hit-outs. Among 39 people classified as ruckmen who have recorded stats this year, Sinclair is:
- 23rd in average hit-outs
- 30th in hit-outs to advantage per game
- 34th in hit-out win percentage and
- 37th in hit-outs to advantage percentage.

I can't get a team stat, but based on those I would reckon we are last in the league in hit-outs to advantage percentage differential, which would mean that our midfielders are having to get the ball off the opposition from ruck contests more than any other in the competition, which has got to have an impact on performance.

Unsurprisingly, Naismith's stats are a lot better. If you open it up to career stats for people classed as ruckmen, Naismith is:
- 14th in average hit-outs
- 11th in hit-outs to advantage per game
- 15th in hit-out win percentage
- 11th in hit-outs to advantage percentage.

It is worth noting finally, Preuss' strong stats at ruck contests this year. He has:
- the best hit-out win percentage of any ruckman who attends more than 3% of ruck contests a game
- the third best hit-outs to advantage percentage of any ruckman who attends more than 20% of ruck contests a game.

He is playing as a second ruck, so many of those contests are probably against other second rucks, but they are still impressive. He's obviously not as good around the ground as Grundy, but he would be better than what we have right now in the ruck although I would rather Naismith if he can stay fit.

Matt, they need to give you a job at the swans on their statistics / analytics team. Amazing analysis.
I see your point about Sinclair but we do need a ruckman who can offer just as much around the ground as in the ruck. It's for this reason that I don't see Naismith as the answer in the same way that Sinclair is not the answer either when you look at your analysis.
Brody will cost too much and I feel we will need to compromise other positions to obtain him. We have some holes that need plugging across the whole team. Really like what I have seen of Preuss, R O'Brien and Archie Smith. Big O from the Lions looks handy but with Stef Martin on the wrong side of 30, unlikely to be let go.

[MattW]

Matt, they need to give you a job at the swans on their statistics / analytics team. Amazing analysis.
I see your point about Sinclair but we do need a ruckman who can offer just as much around the ground as in the ruck. It's for this reason that I don't see Naismith as the answer in the same way that Sinclair is not the answer either when you look at your analysis.
Brody will cost too much and I feel we will need to compromise other positions to obtain him. We have some holes that need plugging across the whole team. Really like what I have seen of Preuss, R O'Brien and Archie Smith. Big O from the Lions looks handy but with Stef Martin on the wrong side of 30, unlikely to be let go.

Ha, thanks RD. I'd love that job.

I'm excited to hear Naismith will play NEAFL this weekend, and looking forward to seeing how he goes. Agree he didn't provide enough around the ground in 2017, in particular. Worth noting he's only played 28 games, though.

[Ludwig]

Incidentally came across something interesting from the 2012 rookie draft. There are only 8 remaining AFL players from that draft and we've got 4 of them: Sinclair, Lloyd, Rampe and Naismith. The 1st three are the only ones to have played 100 AFL games so far, although Zac Williams and Kyle Hartigan could join them by season's end.

[707]

Incidentally came across something interesting from the 2012 rookie draft. There are only 8 remaining AFL players from that draft and we've got 4 of them: Sinclair, Lloyd, Rampe and Naismith. The 1st three are the only ones to have played 100 AFL games so far, although Zac Williams and Kyle Hartigan could join them by season's end.

Shows the low % strike rate by the time you pick rookies, these are after all players picked from 75 to 120'ish

[Hotpotato]

Ha, thanks RD. I'd love that job.

I'm excited to hear Naismith will play NEAFL this weekend, and looking forward to seeing how he goes. Agree he didn't provide enough around the ground in 2017, in particular. Worth noting he's only played 28 games, though.

I hope you do get that job at the Swans, it would be much more exciting than your current job.

You are that Matt aren’t you, the head of statistics and finance at The Reserve Bank of Australia?