2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Ruck'n'Roll]

I'd hate to see the Swans continue the "big fish" recruiting idiocy, even for a Daniher - and I'd love to see a Daniher in red and white.

[Blood Fever]

Article on AFL website on St Kilda's interest in Brad Hill and Zak Jones and the potential difficulties the Saints face in making the deals happen. They appear to have a lot of cap space. Hope he stays.

[bloodspirit]

It seems nobody has yet posted a link to Cal Twomey's latest draft form guide: Cal Twomey's 2019 Phantom Form Guide: August update - AFL.com.au. It is worth comparing and contrasting with Chris Doerre's draft power rankings (which I think someone did already post a link to): AFL Draft Power Rankings General defenders enter top-five calculations.

There are some significant differences: Rowell at 1 v 3. Green at 2 v 5. Serong at 3 v 10. Young 4 v 7. Gould at 15 v 5. Schoenberg 29 v 12. And CD had Ryan Byrnes (Dragons), Jeremy Sharp (East Fremantle), Dyson Hilder (North Adelaide), and Jack Mahony (Dragons) rated inside his top 20 (respectively 13, 15, 17, 18) while they didn't make CT's top 30. And numerous other smaller variations.

And here is a 3rd list, from AFL Draft Central for another perspective: Draft Central Power Rankings: August 2019 - Aussie Rules Draft Central.

What to take away from all that, I don't know. Now, in the era of live draft pick trading, it is almost impossible to tell what our strategy will be. There's a lot more scope to aim for whichever players you really like irrespective of your picks. Used to be if you had, say, pick 4 and 22 and the player that you really liked fell in the middle you probably would miss out on them but now much better chance of trading pick's to grab that player. So it will really come down to a sophisticated and complex combination of our list managers' (and coaches') views of what the team needs, our analysis of all the draft prospects (as well as all the possible trades) to see who could do it for us and then the other clubs and what trades they are willing to do (and of course what the players want and where they're willing to be traded to).

Does mean there is more ability to transform one's list faster. Exciting times. But just about impossible to forecast.

It seems nearly pointless to venture suggestions about who we should chase because there's just too much information we lack. However, I will say that if we keep our first round pick I lean towards place a bid on Green. Even though GWS will likely match (a) it shows him we are interested if we want to try getting him again down the track; (b) it forces GWS to pay more; and (c) there's always a chance GWS might think they have enough depth in that position and don't match and we get a player who exactly fits our needs and who is relatively local (I'm not sure exactly where he's from but he's GWS Academy so I assume it is NSW somewhere).

In terms of our needs it seems that another inside mid and a KPD are possibly our two greatest needs. However, by the time the draft arrives we may have addressed these through trade. Also depends on whether anyone leaves (e.g. Jones, Papley). Given that we have Ling, Stoddart, McInerney, O'Riordan etc do we want to chase another attacking back like Ash or Young? Maybe not. It seems like one of the only positions that we really are pretty well stocked.

[longmile]

Jack Martin worth pursuing?

He seems to be one of the few guns at the Suns, except I know nothing about him bar that he played poorly last weekend.

Seems destined for a Vic club (sick of hearing and writing that) but you never know.

[Markwebbos]

Jack Martin worth pursuing?

He seems to be one of the few guns at the Suns, except I know nothing about him bar that he played poorly last weekend.

Seems destined for a Vic club (sick of hearing and writing that) but you never know.

I don't get the excitement about Jack Martin. And I'm pretty sure he's off to Victoria.

[barry]

Jack Martin worth pursuing?

He seems to be one of the few guns at the Suns, except I know nothing about him bar that he played poorly last weekend.

Seems destined for a Vic club (sick of hearing and writing that) but you never know.

I have a philosophical opposition to poaching from struggling "northern frontier" clubs, or which we were once one.
Leave that to the morally destitute big vic clubs.

[waswan]

Saints may have money but they dont have 3 players that would be attractive to other teams/players

[mcs]

I have a philosophical opposition to poaching from struggling "northern frontier" clubs, or which we were once one.
Leave that to the morally destitute big vic clubs.

Barry, this feels like about the 5th time in the year I've agreed with you - must be a glitch in the system or something! :P

But I completely concur on this.

[Scottee]

Barry, this feels like about the 5th time in the year I've agreed with you - must be a glitch in the system or something! :P

But I completely concur on this.

+1

[bloodspirit]

Fox Footy have assessed these futures for our out of contract players after this season (I'm not posting link because of the issues that creates):


SYDNEY SWANS
Darcy Cameron — There’s almost no doubt Cameron would have played an AFL game in 2019 if not for injury. The Swans have been hard-hit by injuries in the ruck department, but he may be behind a few. OUT THE DOOR?
Durak Tucker — The medium defender was signed by the Swans as a rookie after coming off a season-ending injury in his Under 18 year. He hasn’t had a chance to showcase his talent in the NEAFL yet and should get another year. RE-ROOKIE
Hayden McLean — McLean was overlooked entirely in his draft year but joined the Swans via the new pre-season rookie rules. The tall has become the No.1 ruck at the club, due to injuries and has put in some decent showings since he made his AFL debut. RE-CONTRACT
Jack Maibaum — A ruptured ACL at training has meant the young key defender hasn’t played a senior game since being selected in 2016. Could be a candidate to be delisted and then rookied again. RE-CONTRACT
James Bell — The young Swan will make his AFL debut this week, following outstanding form in the NEAFL. He has averaged 20.8 disposals in the state league and deserves another deal. RE-ROOKIE
James Rose — It has been another season of Rose yo-yoing between AFL and NEAFL. With just five AFL matches this year, could his time be up? DELIST
Joel Amartey — The young ruck/forward has played every game at NEAFL level this season and continues to develop his craft. RE-ROOKIE
Kieren Jack — Jack has had a fine career at Sydney, but that appears likely to come to an end at the conclusion of the season, with the former captain playing just six senior matches. RETIRE
Michael Knoll — The mid-season rookie draft pick continues to grow in the NEAFL and could well push for AFL games in 2020. RE-CONTRACT
Nick Smith — Smith will miss the remainder of the season after continued hamstring setbacks, having been placed on the long-term injury list. The club is unlikely to make a call until later in the season, but the writing is on the wall for the small defender. RETIRE
Robbie Fox — The utility has played eight games of senior football this season, used in a variety of roles by John Longmire. His mature frame means he could be held for depth. RE-CONTRACT
Toby Pink — The tall was picked up by the club in the 2017 rookie draft but is yet to make his AFL debut. He has been moved around the ground in the NEAFL, but others may have jumped ahead. DELIST
Zak Jones — The Swans will be pushing as hard as they can to retain Jones, with the 24-year-old playing 16 matches and coming into his prime. He has averaged 22.7 disposals in 2019, but has rival clubs coming hard at him. OUT THE DOOR?

Broadly agree. Could Pink survive? We don't have an overabundance of KPPs. This might save Maibaum too. It looked like Maibaum was some risk of being cut last year - only recontracted for one season at the last minute after plays for Darcy Moore and Tom Langdon failed. And he's been injured all this year which hasn't helped his cause. But meanwhile Reg has retired. Melican isn't looking quite as promising as he did and Thurlow can't find a spot in the first 22 despite many injuries (last week especially). So that might help Maibaum. Likewise Tucker and Reynolds who could be 3rd tall KPDs have been largely out of action so we don't know yet what they have to offer.

[Mark26]

I have a philosophical opposition to poaching from struggling "northern frontier" clubs, or which we were once one.
Leave that to the morally destitute big vic clubs.

GWS don't mind taking a few of our boys. I even recall the Suns taking our beloved left footer Mal (not to mention Stuwey). I think we need to present a united front against the Vic-centric cohort on some things, but be willing to fill our list with best available recruits from the draft or from other teams. If we don't do that, we'll soon be left behind.

[rb4x]

Fox Footy have got at least one call wrong unless the rules have changed. We can not re-rookie both Bell and Amartey as we are only allowed one third year rookie. Likewise Pink has to be promoted, traded or de-listed as already three years a rookie.

Will Knoll and Hirst who were mid year pickups be counted as first or second year rookies next year if re-rookied? They have only done half a year.

[S.S. Bleeder]

Danniher worth a Top 5 pock coming off 2x 50+ goal seasons
He not worth anything coming off 2 yrs if not playing at 900k
600k max, 2nd round pick for a salary dump

Correct. Despite being a key position player I would have thought worth less than 50% of what Mitchell was worth. Therefore pick 25 and higher.

[S.S. Bleeder]

I have a philosophical opposition to poaching from struggling "northern frontier" clubs, or which we were once one.
Leave that to the morally destitute big vic clubs.

So we should penalise our club and allow a Victorian club to benefit in order to take moral stance? Why? Gold Coast lose him anyway. Did the Gold Coast have that same moral position when they took Malceski? The Gold Coast is in the same position as us.

[S.S. Bleeder]

Fox Footy have assessed these futures for our out of contract players after this season (I'm not posting link because of the issues that creates):


SYDNEY SWANS
Darcy Cameron — There’s almost no doubt Cameron would have played an AFL game in 2019 if not for injury. The Swans have been hard-hit by injuries in the ruck department, but he may be behind a few. OUT THE DOOR?
Durak Tucker — The medium defender was signed by the Swans as a rookie after coming off a season-ending injury in his Under 18 year. He hasn’t had a chance to showcase his talent in the NEAFL yet and should get another year. RE-ROOKIE
Hayden McLean — McLean was overlooked entirely in his draft year but joined the Swans via the new pre-season rookie rules. The tall has become the No.1 ruck at the club, due to injuries and has put in some decent showings since he made his AFL debut. RE-CONTRACT
Jack Maibaum — A ruptured ACL at training has meant the young key defender hasn’t played a senior game since being selected in 2016. Could be a candidate to be delisted and then rookied again. RE-CONTRACT
James Bell — The young Swan will make his AFL debut this week, following outstanding form in the NEAFL. He has averaged 20.8 disposals in the state league and deserves another deal. RE-ROOKIE
James Rose — It has been another season of Rose yo-yoing between AFL and NEAFL. With just five AFL matches this year, could his time be up? DELIST
Joel Amartey — The young ruck/forward has played every game at NEAFL level this season and continues to develop his craft. RE-ROOKIE
Kieren Jack — Jack has had a fine career at Sydney, but that appears likely to come to an end at the conclusion of the season, with the former captain playing just six senior matches. RETIRE
Michael Knoll — The mid-season rookie draft pick continues to grow in the NEAFL and could well push for AFL games in 2020. RE-CONTRACT
Nick Smith — Smith will miss the remainder of the season after continued hamstring setbacks, having been placed on the long-term injury list. The club is unlikely to make a call until later in the season, but the writing is on the wall for the small defender. RETIRE
Robbie Fox — The utility has played eight games of senior football this season, used in a variety of roles by John Longmire. His mature frame means he could be held for depth. RE-CONTRACT
Toby Pink — The tall was picked up by the club in the 2017 rookie draft but is yet to make his AFL debut. He has been moved around the ground in the NEAFL, but others may have jumped ahead. DELIST
Zak Jones — The Swans will be pushing as hard as they can to retain Jones, with the 24-year-old playing 16 matches and coming into his prime. He has averaged 22.7 disposals in 2019, but has rival clubs coming hard at him. OUT THE DOOR?

Broadly agree. Could Pink survive? We don't have an overabundance of KPPs. This might save Maibaum too. It looked like Maibaum was some risk of being cut last year - only recontracted for one season at the last minute after plays for Darcy Moore and Tom Langdon failed. And he's been injured all this year which hasn't helped his cause. But meanwhile Reg has retired. Melican isn't looking quite as promising as he did and Thurlow can't find a spot in the first 22 despite many injuries (last week especially). So that might help Maibaum. Likewise Tucker and Reynolds who could be 3rd tall KPDs have been largely out of action so we don't know yet what they have to offer.

Good assessment but I'd probably delist Fox and keep Pink. We recruited Fox as a mature aged player and he's still only a fringe player. He won't develop anymore so move him on. Pink on the other hand is very young was injured last year. He's also been thrown into a defensive role which isn't his best position. Another year in defence might see him make it.