2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[stevoswan]

Apparently Uncle Terry is disappointed that Joe wants to move to the Swans.

An alternative take on the possible trade: https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/...09-p52z6b.html

That journo is dreaming with some of the potential 'deals' for Daniher.....he acknowledges his injury risk and then touts a package made up of pick 5, pick 25 plus a player, (using George Hewett, James Rowbottom or Tom McCartin as examples ), might get Daniher to us! WTF?!

Total delusion......

[Kumarangk]

There's an assumption on RWO that we are going to give up two top ten picks for Daniher.
I'm happy to stick my neck out and say we will not be doing that.

Trading is all about playing the game, with posturing on both sides. It's very hard to know what each side actually wants to do:

*Bombers say he's a contracted player we'll do everything we can to keep him, but may be keen to get more for him now than they would in a year's time (and if he stays injured they'll get nothing).
*Swans say we'll do whatever it takes to get him, but may (or may not) be keen to actually fail to get him this year and take their chances next.

I think the Fantasia decision, and the movements at the Saints at least mean things are inching forward. If we got pick 18 from Saints for Jones and chucked in something else you never know that might go close to getting it done for Daniher.

I also wonder what the arrival of Daniher means for Sam Reid?

Sam will have someone to keep him company on the injury bench ?

[Ludwig]

The only way I can see the saints pick swap working out for us is if the thinking is something like this : their pick 12 to us for Jones and our pick 25. Their pick 18 and their 2020 first round pick for Hill. It’s probably of similar if not better value for Freo , saints first rounder next year likely to be as good or probably fair bit better than pick 12. Freo get their two first rounders which is what they want albeit spilt over two drafts. We get adequate compensation for Jones ( well still probably dudded a little bit much better than pick 33 or whatever the talk is ). Hopefully the swans are pushing for something like this. If not Jones can look elsewhere, go to the draft , or re-sign .

I was going to propose almost identical trades, which earns you 100 qualifying points toward joining Team Ludwig. I agree with you on the Freo Hill trade.

Pick 12 - 25 nets out to a pick 35, which is too low. An alternative would be giving Jones + picks 44 and 62, which nets out to pick 22, which I still feel is a bit high, but fair enough.

That would leave us with picks 5, 9, 12 and 25. We could really clean up in this draft and losing Papley and Jones doesn't look that onerous.

As far as Daniher is concerned, I would make a counteroffer of pick 25 + Hayden McLean and Michael Knoll. In fact, I wouldn't even negotiate with Dodoro until Wednesday afternoon. Then we simply say that we like our position in the draft this year and feel it's best for the Swans to take our 3 1st round picks to the draft. Make our counteroffer our take it or leave it final offer. Let them walk away. See you next year. Frankly, if I were Essendon I would still do the deal, but Matthew Lloyd would make Dodoro dead as a Dodo.

Let's offer Essendon the same for Daniher that Richmond offered for Tom Lynch. Now what was that offer? Was it 2 first rounders and Dustin Martin? My memory fails me at the moment.

I would prefer to use pick 25 in a deal with Brisbane for Cutler and Taylor. I think they'll take it.

[Thunder Shaker]

A possible trade: Adelaide 4 and 40 to GWS. GWS 12, 18 and GWS's 2020 4th-round pick to Adelaide. However, I do not see such a trade happening. 12 and 18 is sufficient for matching bids on Green.

So GWS made a pick swap after all (Pick 12 and 18 to St Kilda for 6 and 59), just not the terribly one-sided pick swap idea that I was criticising (Adelaide's Pick 4 for their 12 18 and 2020 1st). It's still an unbalanced trade (2253 points versus 1909), but within the 20% Academy discount.

GWS picks: 6, 40, 59, 60, 80, 94
St Kilda: 12, 18, 76, 82

St Kilda's cupboard is getting quite bare if they want to secure both Hill and Jones. It looks to me like St Kilda may be offering Sydney a future pick for Jones, unless they're planning to give us pick 18. Two sets of trades for St Kilda seem likely:
(1) Pick 18 for Jones plus some later draft picks. 12 and 2020 1st round pick for Hill.
(2) 2020 2nd round pick for Jones. Some combination of 12, 18 and 2020 1st round pick for Hill. (If it involves their first two 2020 picks, I doubt this set of trades is allowed under AFL rules. St Kilda may need to acquire additional future picks to trade.)

[Thunder Shaker]

Additional notes: Both St Kilda and Essendon have made pick swaps and they're both looking to trade with Sydney. What are the ramifications of these pick swaps for future trades?

[Melbourne_Blood]

I was going to propose almost identical trades, which earns you 100 qualifying points toward joining Team Ludwig. I agree with you on the Freo Hill trade.

Pick 12 - 25 nets out to a pick 35, which is too low. An alternative would be giving Jones + picks 44 and 62, which nets out to pick 22, which I still feel is a bit high, but fair enough.

That would leave us with picks 5, 9, 12 and 25. We could really clean up in this draft and losing Papley and Jones doesn't look that onerous.

As far as Daniher is concerned, I would make a counteroffer of pick 25 + Hayden McLean and Michael Knoll. In fact, I wouldn't even negotiate with Dodoro until Wednesday afternoon. Then we simply say that we like our position in the draft this year and feel it's best for the Swans to take our 3 1st round picks to the draft. Make our counteroffer our take it or leave it final offer. Let them walk away. See you next year. Frankly, if I were Essendon I would still do the deal, but Matthew Lloyd would make Dodoro dead as a Dodo.

Let's offer Essendon the same for Daniher that Richmond offered for Tom Lynch. Now what was that offer? Was it 2 first rounders and Dustin Martin? My memory fails me at the moment.

I would prefer to use pick 25 in a deal with Brisbane for Cutler and Taylor. I think they'll take it.

It may net out to pick 35 , but I don’t necessarily agree with the points value if we aren’t looking to match bids. I think it’s an offer the saints may consider , and it gets us another decent first round pick. I doubt they would consider your offer , though it’s obviously far better for us.


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[Ludwig]

It may net out to pick 35 , but I don’t necessarily agree with the points value if we aren’t looking to match bids. I think it’s an offer the saints may consider , and it gets us another decent first round pick. I doubt they would consider your offer , though it’s obviously far better for us.

I don't necessarily agree with the points value system either, but it's being used by clubs to calculate the value of trades. HPN values Jones at a pick 14. I've heard a few others say he is a late 1st rounder or perhaps around a pick 20.

There are some other options for Jones, including a swap for the Saints' pick 18, if they use pick 12 on the Hill trade. Also Richmond might be interested with their pick 19, Geelong wouldn't be hurt getting Jones for pick 17 and North Melbourne should be interested with their pick 27 plus a pick swap.

It will be interesting to see where it falls.

[troyjones2525]

Perhaps we will trade Jones & pick 25 to St. Kilda for pick 12 or perhaps more likely pick 18. Then we'll move 5 and 18 for Daniher and hopefully keep 9 (if we get it) for the draft!

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[MattW]

I agree we should be going after experienced mids, particularly given we are losing Jones and probably Papley too.

Bonar could be a pretty good value pick up, for something in the low 20s if he's actually a good player? I listen to the GWS recruiting manager on Road to the Draft podcast yesterday who said that they didn't actually need Caldwell when they drafted him, but he was too good to pass up, so I wonder if he'd be gettable. Caruso did say that they had a lot of depth in the midfield, which is an understatement.

I'm crossing my fingers that (1) we get decent picks for Jones and Papley (2) we play hardball and don't give up the farm for Daniher (3) We draft some quality experienced players that won't cost us too much cap wise.

*The view is that the Saints can't do all their deals without giving up players (although I don't know if there's anyone we'd want on their list).
*I wonder whether, with Fantasia going, the Bombers would entertain Papley for Daniher and this would be a better look that getting picks?
*Hope we take a punt on Bennell
*Ditto Taylor
*And someone like a Bonar
*And possibly a genuine ruckman (rather than a ruck/fwd) as "backup" to Naismith

One of the best recruits of the 2018 trade period was Roughhead to the Pies, which got done at the last minute. I hope there could be some moves like that from the Swans next week.

On the other hand, I'm sure there's a desire to develop the players on our list as quickly as possible. I can see Blakey and Rowbottom playing a lot more midfield minutes in 2020.

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I like your line of reasoning ABS

Yes, me too.

[bloodspirit]

The GWS deal only makes sense if they intend to trade further up the order, or they don't want Green, or they are unfathomably confident Green won't be bid on before pick 6. I'm all in favour of us drafting a big New South Welsh mid if we get the chance! Interesting move. What happens next?

[KSAS]

Ch 7 news & Fox Footy both reporting tonight, that it's looking more likely Carlton will be giving up Pick 9 for Papley but we'll also be giving pick 25 in return (not naming any sources). Ben Dixon who has a very high opinion of Papley, is still pushing his claim that he is definitely worth Pick 9 outright.

It's increasingly looking likely we're going to lose both Jones & Papley. The latter is going to make me feel very sad no matter what the deal involves. Still holding onto hope the Papley & Daniher deals don't get done (2 names intrinsic with our history).

[707]

Saints 2020 first won't be involved in ANY trade, they'll need that and more to get King back from Gold Coast next year.

On the GWS pick swap, they have wasted a lot of points getting up to pick six, they need to now get ahead of any potential bid on Green or they've burnt themselves. If I was Melbourne, I'd be getting sweaty palms thinking of the deal I could do for pick 3!

Our situation is potentially ugly, we need to be prepared to walk away from Daniher early in the week or we'll get caught in the backwash of rapid fire deals late in the period. Carlton may split pick 9 as time elapses then we've lost that much like Freo have lost Saints pick 6 by waiting and asking way overs.

[troyjones2525]

Could we trade pick 9 (if we get it) to Geelong for picks 14 and 17? Then trade Daniher in for 5 and 17 which seems fair to me and will leave us with picks 14 and 25 and whatever we get for Jones.

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[troyjones2525]

Watching the trade game replay on 7 plus and that snake Goddard gives me the @@@@s! Continually talking up how Essendon must demand pick 5 & 9 for Daniher because of his "potential" yet when asked what's Papley is worth in isolation states possibly a late first round but more likey a second rounder...

Can't stand TV personalities that can't leave behind their bias due to their past playing days!

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[MattW]

Nah I think the Saints have killed that trade now.

Freo wanted pick 6 so they can draft a high pick before anyone bids on Liam Henry from the NGA.

Agreed. St Kilda snubbing Freo by offloading their most attractive tradeable asset is pretty interesting. At this point how Freo look to have had their bluff called on an overly ambitious demand and look likely to end up won't end up worse off.

It shows the vulnerability of the club with the player who wants to leave.

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Watching the trade game replay on 7 plus and that snake Goddard gives me the @@@@s! Continually talking up how Essendon must demand pick 5 & 9 for Daniher because of his "potential" yet when asked what's Papley is worth in isolation states possibly a late first round but more likey a second rounder...

Can't stand TV personalities that can't leave behind their bias due to their past playing days!

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I don't know why you put yourself through it, man. The Age (daily podcast and online) is a fairly reasonable source.