2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Foreign Legion]

Pick 32 is only worth our while if St Kilda give something else as well, such as a future fourth-round pick.

That's speculative anyway. St Kilda don't even have pick 32 right now, that's held by the Dogs.

Yeah I know they don't have 32 but hope to get it from the Bulldogs.

I rate Daniher trade at 55% to happen 45% to fail

Papley I rate as 70/30% to go if Daniher goes through - 20%/80% if the above trade fails.

[707]

Pick 32 is only worth our while if St Kilda give something else as well, such as a future fourth-round pick.

That's speculative anyway. St Kilda don't even have pick 32 right now, that's held by the Dogs.

Saints already traded out their 2020 third and fourth and their second is part of the Hill deal.

[Thunder Shaker]

Yeah I know they don't have 32 but hope to get it from the Bulldogs.

I rate Daniher trade at 55% to happen 45% to fail

Papley I rate as 70/30% to go if Daniher goes through - 20%/80% if the above trade fails.

I'm broadly in agreement with those figures.

Carlton have got Betts back. They are under no great pressure to land Papley as well.

Essendon want to keep Daniher and are definitely negotiating like a club that doesn't want the trade to happen.

I think we'll take pick 5 to the draft and keep GWS honest by using it to bid on Green.

[liz]

Saints already traded out their 2020 third and fourth and their second is part of the Hill deal.

The Bulldogs should be the ones giving up a bit more. Bruce for 32 is a very good deal for them - too good IMO. The Saints probably don't care too much if they are just going to hand over whatever they get for Bruce to the Swans for Jones.

A pick in the late 20s is already pretty light on for Jones. On intrinsic value he's worth a fair bit more than that. Accepting less...

[Thunder Shaker]

Saints already traded out their 2020 third and fourth and their second is part of the Hill deal.

St Kilda 2020 picks:

IN: Round four pick (tied to Port Adelaide)
OUT: Round three pick to Port Adelaide

They appear to hold two 2020 fourth-round picks.

[Ludwig]

The threat of an out of contract player, like Jones, going to the PSD is next to nil. They would just get picked up by Gold Coast. Then GC would have another asset they could trade next year. They just match whatever the contract price is. It doesn't matter even if they go over the salary cap. What is the AFL going to do? Take away draft picks from them? They'll just apply to the AFL for more priority picks.

St. Kilda may be able to keep their 2020 1st round pick, but otherwise, it appears they may not have any other picks in the first 3 rounds in the next 2 drafts. And that's only if they lose Blake Acres and Josh Bruce. I can't see how they've improved the team enough to make it to the finals and they've mortgaged their future in the process.

Reports have the Saints offering pick 10 + 2020 2nd round pick + Blake Acres for Hill. This is way over the top for me. HPN has the Saints losing this trade by the equivalent of a pick 2. I think Essendon would take that for Daniher.

If Richmond has the salary cap space, I think they'd do well to offer pick 19 for Jones + 54. Another solid player in his prime is perfect for a premiership team wanting to stay on top while their stars are still in their prime.

I think Squizzy will go for a third rounder, but I don't know which one.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

No worries. I've already written 3 other books.

It'd help if they'd been written in something other than English, and in either verse or as plays - but I've just finished my Audies submissions so I guess I can knock off one to the Nobel committee for you while I'm in BS mode.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

I swear we could’ve got pick 125 for Cameron and there’d still be posters on here spouting about how well we did with the trade ????

Probably, I've seen posters defending the first Daniher deal, let alone this new one. It's an article of faith for some.

[longmile]

A win for me would be to keep Papley and Pick 5, trade Jones for a mid 20s pick (probably worth more tbh), leave Daniher and pick up Taylor for a late 30s pick

Very suprised we haven't made a play or been linked with a ruckman or a midfield bull. Still tomorrow to see out I guess...

[Auntie.Gerald]

With all the money in the kitty does anyone else find it strange that the Hawks don’t appear to be interested in Jones with their pick 30 ?

Or even stranger is north melb and Shaw not poking around with picks 26/27 they have ?

[Thunder Shaker]

More pro-Essendon bias on the AFL website:
Trade Wrap: Dons eye explosive Giants mid, Saint unlocks Hill deal
"Essendon ... is still attempting to block star forward Joe Daniher's move to Sydney ..."

[Ludwig]

I made a comparison of Papley's 2019 season vs. Taylor's 2018 season, as both players played 22 games in the respective years and were at the same age, Papley being 1 year older than Taylor. Here's the link:

Tom Papley and Lewis Taylor AFL Stats Comparison

I think they are pretty close statistically. If we get pick 9 for Papley and lose a 3rd rounder for Taylor, we should be ahead of the game.

Brodie Kemp, that big bodied midfielder who is quick and kicks goals is likely to slip down the draft a bit due to his ACL injury that will keep him out for the better part, if not all, of next year. He may well be available at pick 9 and could be worth that pick, given that we don't need him for 2020.

Picking up the likes of Flanders and Kemp with 2 top 10 picks makes the Daniher deal look like a sick dog.

Now that Melbourne have pick 8, the rumours are they are after a small forward and will take Cody Weightman. I don't know why they wouldn't offer pick 8 for Papley instead. In any case, the way the draft order stands now, the Giants will get Green with 6, Freo will probably take a West Coaster like Devon Robinson, which would probably see Kemp still available at pick 9.

In the end, the best thing the Swans could do is to have the whole list management team board a plane tonight for Brazil and not show up at trade talks tomorrow.

[Foreign Legion]

With all the money in the kitty does anyone else find it strange that the Hawks don’t appear to be interested in Jones with their pick 30 ?

Or even stranger is north melb and Shaw not poking around with picks 26/27 they have ?

Good point about North - you'd think they would inquire at least - maybe they have. Rhyce would know enough about him.

[MattW]

We've made very reasonable offers: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/spo...15-p530zs.html.

[Thunder Shaker]

In the end, the best thing the Swans could do is to have the whole list management team board a plane tonight for Brazil and not show up at trade talks tomorrow.

Or the AFL changes the trade rules so every time Essendon says "no" to a trade, all the Essendon traders have to drink a shot.