2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[bloodspirit]

Melbourne must take Jackson at 3 if they want him. Their other pick is 8.

Fremantle has pick 7 & 10, and with Sandilands retiring, desperately need a ruckman.

They will pick Jackson at 7 if he is there, and hope that Liam Henry is not bid on before their other pick at 22.

The best option for us is that they bid on Green, but i don't think this will happen.

GWS must have some plan for the reason they moved up the draft, from 12 & 18 to 6.

Still i can't make any sense of either GWS or Melbourne trading plans.

Why did Melbourne trade out next year pick for Norths first rounder?

It does not make sense unless they have a player in mind, but after the first two players, the draft is very even.

Who ever they are targeting may not be there.

I don't understand why you think it helps us if Melbourne bid on Green at 3. Please can you explain?

One speculative possibility that has just come to me with GWS (because I admit I am as baffled as you are why they did that deal with Port) is that they have a further deal (maybe just a handshake - like our handshake deal with West Coast last year) that they can trade back with Port if the bid for Green comes before pick 6 (perhaps giving Port something for their trouble). This doesn't seem so likely but would, at least, help make sense of things for me.

Swans' analysis does not concur with the view that "after the first two players the draft is very even". I don't think Melbourne have to have their eyes on a particular player, particularly that far out from the draft, rather they just want to get another good player in and they want to do it this year, not in another year's time.

[Captain]

This scenario is exactly the reason no northern clubs will ever be safe from the "go home" factor....with a national league there's always going to be nieces and nephews growing up elsewhere and spouses from down south and inevitable questions regarding career endings like 'what will life look like?' and 'where do I want to be family wise?' It's going to be a potential problem for years to come.

It's funny how Aussie soccer players in Europe or basketballers in the NBA never get homesick and come home.

Can you imagine Ben Simmons just quitting soon to come home because his long term place is not the USA?

[SeanM]

I think they would still get homesick, there is just not the equivalent opportunities or money back in Australia. But an AFL player can move back to Victoria to ten possible clubs and get paid the same.

It is just how it is. I would do the same in their situation. I have worked interstate at times and always felt happier when I got to go back to Sydney.

[Captain]

I think they would still get homesick, there is just not the equivalent opportunities or money back in Australia. But an AFL player can move back to Victoria to ten possible clubs and get paid the same.

It is just how it is. I would do the same in their situation. I have worked interstate at times and always felt happier when I got to go back to Sydney.

All fair points.

I just don't buy the homesick element. In the majority of cases it's purely money and being homesick is a convenient excuse.

[dazedjosh]

I think the NBA is actual an example of how the more recent draftees are approaching the AFL and the notion of homesickness and travel. More of the kids coming through seem to be coming in with an understanding that this is also a business and that moving interstate is a part of that business.

I'll be very interested to see what happens with the next CBA in regards to player trades and free agency. The few articles I've seen over the last 12 months about it have been that clubs are willing to let players go FA (restricted or unrestricted I'm not sure) after 6 years if clubs are in turn allowed to trade players to other clubs without their consent. A model that is fairly common in all American sports. Speculatively, I think a lot of the new kids understand that model conceptually due to their exposure to american sports and are prepared for it in a way that their predecessors perhaps aren't.

[MattW]

It's funny how Aussie soccer players in Europe or basketballers in the NBA never get homesick and come home.

Can you imagine Ben Simmons just quitting soon to come home because his long term place is not the USA?

Haha. Yes. Although, presumably the wide gap in acclaim and salary plays a role in those cases.

[stevoswan]

I don't particularly. Not saying I'd turn him away if he wanted to come and play for the Swans for minimum salary but there are probably more than a dozen players at other clubs that I'd prefer played for us (taking into account salary cap demands and the like).

A decent ruckman can make a team marginally better, but I think it's far more important to have strength in other areas of the ground to build a premiership contending team. I'd rather the club spend their limited salary cap dollars on star power in other positions.

I sort of meant the next Grundy......Jackson. I should have said "a Grundy".

[liz]

I sort of meant the next Grundy......Jackson. I should have said "a Grundy".

Who says he'll be the next Grundy? Why not the next Gardiner, Josh Fraser, Leuenberger, Mitch Clarke, Vickery, Kreuzer - all of whom were highly regarded as underaged ruckmen and drafted with top 10 draft picks. Some of them became serviceable senior rucks, many were been hampered by injury (as is typical for ruckmen).

On the other hand, players like Dean Cox, Sandilands, Jolly, Mumford, Stefan Martin were found in the rookie draft (or PSD in Martin's case).

I reckon small forwards and rucks are two types of player clubs need to think very hard about before using an early draft pick on because the chances of finding a decent one in the rookie draft are just as good as your chances of finding a decent on with an early draft pick. The same is somewhat true of defenders in general, including tall defenders, but far less the case for taller forwards and midfielders.

[Ludwig]

Apologies if I’ve posted this before.

Zak Jones on why he left Sydney

Zak Jones opens up on why he wanted to join St Kilda

“I’m grateful for everything the Swans have done for me, but this felt right. I miss my family. I didn’t think much about it when I first arrived there, but when my girlfriend got up there and we started thinking about what life would be like if I finished my @career up there, would I then move back home? When we agreed that, yeah, I probably would move back, I think that’s what triggered it.”

The decision was reaffirmed on visits to Victoria where Jones spent time with his brothers’ families. Being the uncle his nephews didn’t recognise was a real fear.

“I’ve been missing out on a lot back at home,” he said. “My older brothers both have kids and I miss out on a lot of birthdays and those things. Coming home and seeing them not really knowing you was a reality check for me that maybe I do want to come home and spend more time in their lives.”

Another

[stevoswan]

It's funny how Aussie soccer players in Europe or basketballers in the NBA never get homesick and come home.

Can you imagine Ben Simmons just quitting soon to come home because his long term place is not the USA?

I just don't buy the homesick element. In the majority of cases it's purely money and being homesick is a convenient excuse.

I agree entirely. I went to Ag College back in the day and boarded there for a year and even though I was a 'mature age' first year student at 21, I was going home each weekend for about the first month because I was missing home.....but I was also settling in at college at the same time and then suddenly, bingo......there was just too much going on at college to be bothered going home. It was suddenly a blast! I knew heaps of great new people and having just too much fun.....I didn't want to be anywhere else! I went home about another 4-5 times for the rest of the year.

I know attending an ag college in country Victoria and a being a professional footballer at the highest level are vastly different paths but the 'go home' factor, at least in the majority of cases, is a bit of a ruse if you ask me, whatever the vocation. I know everybody is different and some kids are more sensitive and emotionally vulnerable than others but I reckon most young blokes, once they settle into their new surroundings, doing what they love (and in their case, getting paid handsomely)......would/should be pretty bloody happy.

Of course, pressing personal family issues can be an understandable reason to want to return to ones home state as well as, in Paps case, permanent conjugal visits as opposed to just the occasional weekenders! I'm sorry, I'm rambling on.....on the back of a few whiskey's and scoobs.....but I will press on. I'm having fun.....but seriously and in all fairness and reality (do I seriously have a grip on that in my current state?), I reckon the 'go home' factor is largely driven by money, either by players who possess somewhat misguided aims in life, ie: putting greed over loyalty.....or by managers who get ahead of themselves....driven also by greed.

I suppose the bottom line is, it is easier to put up with being away from home ie: what is comfortable and safe.....if you're being paid around ten times more in one year than what most of us would pretty much instantly retire on! AFL players are very well paid but not on 'Simmons money'.....however it seems some want to be at least a bit closer to 'retirement money'. Probably not much we can do about that, besides the league legislating against it in some way......LOL, can't see that happening with these muppets that run our game.....

That's it, I'm done. I'm gonna reread this in the morning to see if it made sense.....time for a nightcap.

Nighty night.....

[SeanM]

I think things are changing a bit in the mentality of draftees. There is so much sacrifice and professional preparation over a number of years to get drafted and the potential money is much higher. So I think there is a greater willingness for Vic Metro kids to spend half their career interstate.

In the first few years there is no certainty that they are going to adjust to AFL football or have a career ending injury. So the focus is on trying to establish themselves in the first team and earn 200-400k for a few years. And then in their mid 20s make a call whether they want to move back to a Melbourne club.

And I think the day to day club environment plays a big factor. if they get along with their teammates and coaches then it makes it easier to stay.

[Cosmic Wizard]

I don't understand why you think it helps us if Melbourne bid on Green at 3. Please can you explain?

One speculative possibility that has just come to me with GWS (because I admit I am as baffled as you are why they did that deal with Port) is that they have a further deal (maybe just a handshake - like our handshake deal with West Coast last year) that they can trade back with Port if the bid for Green comes before pick 6 (perhaps giving Port something for their trouble). This doesn't seem so likely but would, at least, help make sense of things for me.

Swans' analysis does not concur with the view that "after the first two players the draft is very even". I don't think Melbourne have to have their eyes on a particular player, particularly that far out from the draft, rather they just want to get another good player in and they want to do it this year, not in another year's time.

GWS has four players with they want to pick up, but limited points.

They have picks 6, 40, 59, 60, 80 & 94. All these points add up to 2,484.

A bid on Green at 4 or 5 will only use 2034 or 1878.

A Melbourne bid how ever will use up 2234.

So our pick 44, 362, will force them in to deficit.

So we can just keep bidding on the other GWS players until they break.

The other players are very good.

Like Liam Delahunty forward 192cm 90kg ; Matthew McGrory elite endurance runner 186 cm 74kg; Nick Murray 193 cm 92kg defender.

There is some rich picking here, far better than some other picks.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

But an AFL player can move back to Victoria to ten possible clubs and get paid the same.

Strangely enough the players that get homesick for Melbourne, always seem to get homesick for a single club in Melbourne. Which makes the whole thing complete BS even without the increase in salary that a change of club always entails. And yes it works both ways, a player that proclaims his desire to escape Melbourne's intrusive media and play for the Swans looks just as ingenuous when the move is accompanied by a monster pay packet.

In the case of players moving back to Melbourne, it' not just the pay rise they will get from their new club, there's far more opportunities to profit in the Melbourne goldfish bowl. More 3rd party agreements, more sponsorship money, more media appearances, more free coffees, more being treated like a demi-god wherever you go, all of which must appeal to both the avaricious and the narcissistic hot-house brats that the elite under age sport industry seems to churn out.

I need a cup of tea and a lie down.

[chalbilto]

Strangely enough the players that get homesick for Melbourne, always seem to get homesick for a single club in Melbourne. Which makes the whole thing complete BS even without the increase in salary that a change of club always entails. And yes it works both ways, a player that proclaims his desire to escape Melbourne's intrusive media and play for the Swans looks just as ingenuous when the move is accompanied by a monster pay packet.

In the case of players moving back to Melbourne, it' not just the pay rise they will get from their new club, there's far more opportunities to profit in the Melbourne goldfish bowl. More 3rd party agreements, more sponsorship money, more media appearances, more free coffees, more being treated like a demi-god wherever you go, all of which must appeal to both the avaricious and the narcissistic hot-house brats that the elite under age sport industry seems to churn out.

I need a cup of tea and a lie down.

Don't forget the Bex.

[Markwebbos]

I think a lot of them want to play for a big Melbourne club in front of 90,000. And quite a few take a pay cut to do so.

I'm sure there are pull factors, but the push factor is pretty key too. So the "go home factor" is as much the "leave my current club factor". Brisbane was clearly not a happy place to be when everyone wanted out, ditto GCS until recently. Now Adelaide and possibly the Bombers have become toxic.