2019 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Markwebbos]

Wndering if we are into Kemp as a tall mid given we've just brought in Gray and Taylor with Gulden and Campbell also under 180. Intriguing draft this one

Sure is. Particularly as teams can trade picks

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I would love for us to draft Jackson even if it as 5. Bid on Green first, take Jackson once GWS match. He's a ruck so it will take a while for him to develop, but with his ability to impact around the ground, coupled with Blakey's ability to push into the midfield and McCartin's ability to play down back, we could use him up front at times as well and get a handful of games into him while his body develops. If he gets 5-10 games a year for the first 2 years that would be a good result considering young rucks rarely play regularly.

I'd also like us to package up our picks in the 30's and 40's to get a 3rd top 30 pick, or get some picks from the 2020 draft for points considering our academy kids Campbell and Gulden.

If we don't take Jackson then hopefully we look at Kemp or Robertson as inside mids.

With our 2nd rounder, I'd like for us to look at Sam DeKoning as a KPD to develop, his height and mobility makes him really interesting and we lack KPD depth. He'll take a couple of years to put on enough muscle to be a regular but he looks like a good pickup in the 20's. We've drafted enough pacey wingers and flankers recently. It's time to focus on the spine.

I'm not sure Jackson would be right for us as I don't think he's quite tall enough to be #1 ruck. I'll obviously change my tune if we call out his name on draft night.

[dazedjosh]

Yeah I've had a few discussions with people on Reddit who want Kemp or Robertson rather than Jackson and I can understand their point. Those guys look like guns. But, and I'm only going off the highlights videos, I'd still take Jackson with 5 if he's there for the following reasons.

Players of his size and skill are rare, extremely rare, maybe 1 a draft rare, when you have a chance to grab a guy like that, I think you have to take him. We've also got big bodied mids that we're developing/have developed in Hewett and Dawson.
His all around ability on the field suggests that he would be able to play 5-10 games of AFL footy in his first couple of years as his body fills out, accelerating his development and broadening his skill set, making him more than just a tap ruckman.
Even if he doesn't grow anymore, he is still listed as 198cm, and he has a massive leap. You can tell this kid played basketball because he can just flat out jump. To put this into perspective, Nic Nat is 201cm, he wins so much of the ruck contest because of his jumping ability. It should also be noted that a lot of people have one final growth spurt around the age of 19, so 198cm might not be his final height.
Even if he stays at 198cm, because he shapes up as an all field player, he is not just limited to the ruck and can drift forward and back. Meaning we can play 2 rucks in the future if we want, with Jackson and a big bruiser, where Jackson provides an extra tall option up front or down back.

[Ralph Dawg]

Yeah I've had a few discussions with people on Reddit who want Kemp or Robertson rather than Jackson and I can understand their point. Those guys look like guns. But, and I'm only going off the highlights videos, I'd still take Jackson with 5 if he's there for the following reasons.

Players of his size and skill are rare, extremely rare, maybe 1 a draft rare, when you have a chance to grab a guy like that, I think you have to take him. We've also got big bodied mids that we're developing/have developed in Hewett and Dawson.
His all around ability on the field suggests that he would be able to play 5-10 games of AFL footy in his first couple of years as his body fills out, accelerating his development and broadening his skill set, making him more than just a tap ruckman.
Even if he doesn't grow anymore, he is still listed as 198cm, and he has a massive leap. You can tell this kid played basketball because he can just flat out jump. To put this into perspective, Nic Nat is 201cm, he wins so much of the ruck contest because of his jumping ability. It should also be noted that a lot of people have one final growth spurt around the age of 19, so 198cm might not be his final height.
Even if he stays at 198cm, because he shapes up as an all field player, he is not just limited to the ruck and can drift forward and back. Meaning we can play 2 rucks in the future if we want, with Jackson and a big bruiser, where Jackson provides an extra tall option up front or down back.

I'm coming around to the idea of potentially taking Jackson. Our long term ruck options look thin, certainly not convinced that any of our existing stars will ever move into the top echelon of ruckmen in the competition.

Re height, Stef Martin, one of my favourites up here in Brisbane, is only 199cm. His mobility is his strength but still competes in the ruck with a good jump and body work. He would be in the top 5 rucks in the competition. Jackson would be a similar style and he may grow a few more cm's to crack the 200cm barrier.

[Scottee]

I'm coming around to the idea of potentially taking Jackson. Our long term ruck options look thin, certainly not convinced that any of our existing stars will ever move into the top echelon of ruckmen in the competition.

Re height, Stef Martin, one of my favourites up here in Brisbane, is only 199cm. His mobility is his strength but still competes in the ruck with a good jump and body work. He would be in the top 5 rucks in the competition. Jackson would be a similar style and he may grow a few more cm's to crack the 200cm barrier.

Too much go home factor being from WA for mine.

[dazedjosh]

Yeah but we've got a pretty good track record of getting players into the system and helping them to adjust to a new city and new lifestyle. Anecdotally, it also seems like a lot of the new draftees over the last couple of years are more aware of the potential for a move interstate, and are preparing accordingly. I think that the amount of talk about being drafted in a national competition and the increasing professionalism of draftees these days makes it seem like the go home factor is becoming less of a big deal as players start to think of the AFL as a truly Australia wide comp and understand the implications of it. I think as a club, we have to back ourselves in to get any player happy in Sydney regardless of where they're from.

[barry]

Anecdotally, it also seems like a lot of the new draftees over the last couple of years are more aware of the potential for a move interstate, and are preparing accordingly. I think that the amount of talk about being drafted in a national competition and the increasing professionalism of draftees these days makes it seem like the go home factor is becoming less of a big deal as players start to think of the AFL as a truly Australia wide comp and understand the implications of it.

I'm not so sure. GC, and GWS, and until recently the Lions have been savaged by the go home factor.

The swans, so far, havent had to much of a problem of late, but that could be because
a) they are successful and a 'destination' club.
b) they specifically draft players who may not be impacted by homesickness (eg. country kids) at the expense of the best talent avaliable.

All good moves, but if all 4 northern clubs acted this way, we'd soon run out of country kids to draft.

[dazedjosh]

I can see where you're coming from but I personally think the tide has turned with regards to the go home factor for the northern clubs. I also tend to think that, as you mentioned, being a successful club with good culture is a massive factor and I think we'll see both of the Adelaide clubs and maybe Essendon looking at some more departures in the future as they seem to have some serious problems they need to address structurally.

But with regards to the northern clubs-
GWS just re-signed Cogs and Kelly over some big offers. Whitfield and Cameron are expected to re-sign as well. They also had another factor playing into the departures, their salary cap scenario and so they had to prioritise some players over others. Not something we have to worry about.
Gold Coast have extended King and Rankine already, with Luko expected to extend as well. I put this down to a culture thing that Dew has improved since he went to the Suns. Club culture isn't an issue at the Swans.
The Lions had the go home 5 but have moved on well from that, they've rebuilt their club culture and have extended all of their kids who love it up there at the moment as they are part of a young club on the rise, ie. they're becoming a destination club. Signing guys like Neale and Cameron just reinforces that idea.

[Markwebbos]

Apologies if I’ve posted this before.

Zak Jones on why he left Sydney

http://theland-downunder.com/2019/10/20/zak-jones-opens-up-on-why-he-wanted-to-join-st-kilda/

“I’m grateful for everything the Swans have done for me, but this felt right. I miss my family. I didn’t think much about it when I first arrived there, but when my girlfriend got up there and we started thinking about what life would be like if I finished my @career up there, would I then move back home? When we agreed that, yeah, I probably would move back, I think that’s what triggered it.”

The decision was reaffirmed on visits to Victoria where Jones spent time with his brothers’ families. Being the uncle his nephews didn’t recognise was a real fear.

“I’ve been missing out on a lot back at home,” he said. “My older brothers both have kids and I miss out on a lot of birthdays and those things. Coming home and seeing them not really knowing you was a reality check for me that maybe I do want to come home and spend more time in their lives.”

[Ralph Dawg]

We can't not sign players who we identify as being talented and suiting our playing list needs just because we fear the "go home" factor. Effectively it would leave us with only players from NSW to pick from!

The reality in modern football is that players will come and go for a variety of reason and it would be naive to expect to sign an 18yo and expect him to be at the club for his whole career.

What we should do as a northern club is identify players who potentially will settle in well and create an environment which will minimise home sickness. Encourage and facilitate regular contact with family, look after spouses who are relocating with the players and targeting players who are good mates or brothers (like the Lions - McCluggage / Berry, Berry and Lyons brothers, Neale / McCarthy) would all seem to be obvious things to do.

Some will (and have) still leave and as much as we as supporters find it disappointing, it's just something that is part of being a club in a non traditional footy area.

[stevoswan]

Yeah I've had a few discussions with people on Reddit who want Kemp or Robertson rather than Jackson and I can understand their point. Those guys look like guns. But, and I'm only going off the highlights videos, I'd still take Jackson with 5 if he's there for the following reasons.

Players of his size and skill are rare, extremely rare, maybe 1 a draft rare, when you have a chance to grab a guy like that, I think you have to take him. We've also got big bodied mids that we're developing/have developed in Hewett and Dawson.
His all around ability on the field suggests that he would be able to play 5-10 games of AFL footy in his first couple of years as his body fills out, accelerating his development and broadening his skill set, making him more than just a tap ruckman.
Even if he doesn't grow anymore, he is still listed as 198cm, and he has a massive leap. You can tell this kid played basketball because he can just flat out jump. To put this into perspective, Nic Nat is 201cm, he wins so much of the ruck contest because of his jumping ability. It should also be noted that a lot of people have one final growth spurt around the age of 19, so 198cm might not be his final height.
Even if he stays at 198cm, because he shapes up as an all field player, he is not just limited to the ruck and can drift forward and back. Meaning we can play 2 rucks in the future if we want, with Jackson and a big bruiser, where Jackson provides an extra tall option up front or down back.

Add to all that....he plays like a midfielder......err, like Brodie Grundy.....and we all want Grundy in our team. He would fill two needs for us.....a decent ruckman and a potential midfield bull.

Draft night will be very intriguing indeed.

[stevoswan]

Apologies if I’ve posted this before.

Zak Jones on why he left Sydney

Zak Jones opens up on why he wanted to join St Kilda

“I’m grateful for everything the Swans have done for me, but this felt right. I miss my family. I didn’t think much about it when I first arrived there, but when my girlfriend got up there and we started thinking about what life would be like if I finished my @career up there, would I then move back home? When we agreed that, yeah, I probably would move back, I think that’s what triggered it.”

The decision was reaffirmed on visits to Victoria where Jones spent time with his brothers’ families. Being the uncle his nephews didn’t recognise was a real fear.

“I’ve been missing out on a lot back at home,” he said. “My older brothers both have kids and I miss out on a lot of birthdays and those things. Coming home and seeing them not really knowing you was a reality check for me that maybe I do want to come home and spend more time in their lives.”

This scenario is exactly the reason no northern clubs will ever be safe from the "go home" factor....with a national league there's always going to be nieces and nephews growing up elsewhere and spouses from down south and inevitable questions regarding career endings like 'what will life look like?' and 'where do I want to be family wise?' It's going to be a potential problem for years to come.

[bloodspirit]

Thanks for that Mw.

And here's one about a player's perspective on a JD (failed trade move) type situation: Mitch Robinson gives players' perspective on Daniher trade attempt.

It's all so slow this time of year, and time is dragginggggggg....

Didn't anyone watch the webinar last night? Is it available. If so can someone post a link please?

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This scenario is exactly the reason no northern clubs will ever be safe from the "go home" factor....with a national league there's always going to be nieces and nephews growing up elsewhere and spouses from down south and inevitable questions regarding career endings like 'what will life look like?' and 'where do I want to be family wise?' It's going to be a potential problem for years to come.

The problem will be mitigated if a decent proportion of players start coming from NSW. That's a fair way off but given we have the biggest population, there is scope for growth, just as the game is growing in NSW (very significantly - it's so much more common and popular with kids these days).

[liz]

and we all want Grundy in our team.

I don't particularly. Not saying I'd turn him away if he wanted to come and play for the Swans for minimum salary but there are probably more than a dozen players at other clubs that I'd prefer played for us (taking into account salary cap demands and the like).

A decent ruckman can make a team marginally better, but I think it's far more important to have strength in other areas of the ground to build a premiership contending team. I'd rather the club spend their limited salary cap dollars on star power in other positions.

[Cosmic Wizard]

Melbourne’s list manager said they were considering Jackson at pick 3, on the Road to the Draft. I think it’s as a fwd-ruck which Preuss is not. They can’t play Preuss and Gawn.

Why Preuss went to Melbourne we’ll never know.

I could imagine GWS being interested in Jackson or Young ahead of Green.

Melbourne must take Jackson at 3 if they want him. Their other pick is 8.

Fremantle has pick 7 & 10, and with Sandilands retiring, desperately need a ruckman.

They will pick Jackson at 7 if he is there, and hope that Liam Henry is not bid on before their other pick at 22.

The best option for us is that they bid on Green, but i don't think this will happen.

GWS must have some plan for the reason they moved up the draft, from 12 & 18 to 6.

Still i can't make any sense of either GWS or Melbourne trading plans.

Why did Melbourne trade out next year pick for Norths first rounder?

It does not make sense unless they have a player in mind, but after the first two players, the draft is very even.

Who ever they are targeting may not be there.

[bloodspirit]

Interesting article looking at pick trading and why clubs are holding off trading until the night with a plausible hypothetical scenario explored: Get set for draft night drama: Why clubs are holding fire on pick swaps - AFL.com.au.