2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Thunder Shaker]

From what I heard on SEN, it appears that the AFL is less likely to be handing out good quality picks for FA. So hopefully that means we aren't going to be impacted too much by additional picks being thrown in. The key one is Crouch. The fellow who was speaking (didn't catch his name) said that it is likely that the Crouch compensation pick will come after the Crows second pick which is at the moment pick 8 (which they received from a trade with GWS last year)

The FA compo picks don't work like that. Compo pick that are tied to the club's picks in each round of the draft would be after those picks no matter who holds them. For Adelaide, the FA picks would be after pick 1 (1st round), pick 20 (second round) and so on.

Picks after each round of the draft work a bit differently.

See here: Free Agency

[Ludwig]

And by the way, I did have a read through a few papers, to see if I could find the answer to your question of, are there a couple of types of tau proteins. Although I was finding nothing definitive, the answer is probably more or less. That is, when released from an axon, tau protein is more likely to attract a phosphoryl group and that may make the tau more likely to form tangles.

There are also subtle differences in both an individual's tau and how it interacts with their particular biochemistry: largely due to which genetic alleles are switched on and off, and consequently which enzymes and proteins are expressed. For instance, one person may express more of a protease, that may be able to cleave problem tau proteins and render them less harmful.

I hope that makes some sort of sense, but trying to explain in more detail, would largely be a long collection of gene names, and complicated genetics usually has me screaming at the computer, "What fresh hell is this!"

Thanks for digging into this. It's an interesting topic given the prevalence of concussion in sport.

I was thinking that it would be unusual for an important protein, like the tau, to develop folding or tangling problems in young healthy people without an agonist. So the question relating to footballers is whether concussion is such an agonist, and to what degree? And is there a contributing genetic predisposition?

If we return to the original query concerning Paddy McCartin, how can we make a determination if he is safe to continue his football career. If his physician says he's okay to play, can this be reasonably challenged based on other data available?

After your research, have you formed an opinion on recruiting Paddy?

I thought I should let you know that I've added you to my will. I'm going to leave you my Drosophila melanogaster collection. You'll love the ones with iridescent green eyes.

[Ralph Dawg]

Ludwig I am serving myself a generous portion of humble pie.

Give me a teal deal: Star Don wants Power switch, Port pursues key Swan

... It comes as the Power pursue contracted Sydney defender/ruckman Aliir Aliir to fill the void left by departed club champion Justin Westhoff...

The 26-year-old caught the Power's eye during their round 14 win over the Swans when he was thrown into the ruck in the second half and competed strongly...

While the Swans are chasing a ruckman, the Power are not expected to be willing to part with contracted pair Peter Ladhams and Sam Hayes who sit behind Scott Lycett in the club's ruck pecking order.

Port have picks 26, 31, 39, 51 and 53 if they won't trade a player but will need these to match for their NGA gun and also Fantasia.

Struggle to see Aliir deal going through.

[Melbourne_Blood]

No to trading AA. I bet the dissenting voices were nowhere to be found when he was in stellar form on the way to the 2016 GF. The guy is a serious talent. The key for him is to have a consistent pre-season, and to have a stable core around him for AA to flourish. He hasn't had that for a while.

Anyway, like others I will wait with baited breath to see how Dodoro tries to get all the deals done.

From what I heard on SEN, it appears that the AFL is less likely to be handing out good quality picks for FA. So hopefully that means we aren't going to be impacted too much by additional picks being thrown in. The key one is Crouch. The fellow who was speaking (didn't catch his name) said that it is likely that the Crouch compensation pick will come after the Crows second pick which is at the moment pick 8 (which they received from a trade with GWS last year)

For me it’s No to trading Allir unless a good deal presents. Apparently they’ve ruled out all of their ruckman so it seems unlikely a good deal will present. But if one did, as a pre agent’ (as webbos accurately puts it ), now is the time to entertain it. Ollie Wines would work


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[dejavoodoo44]

I thought I should let you know that I've added you to my will. I'm going to leave you my Drosophila melanogaster collection. You'll love the ones with iridescent green eyes.

Live or dead? (The fruit flies, not you).

[Markwebbos]

After your research, have you formed an opinion on recruiting Paddy? ... with iridescent green eyes.

Those eyes might be a warning sign

[Aprilbr]

For me it’s No to trading Allir unless a good deal presents. Apparently they’ve ruled out all of their ruckman so it seems unlikely a good deal will present. But if one did, as a pre agent’ (as webbos accurately puts it ), now is the time to entertain it. Ollie Wines would work


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While I would rather keep Aliir we also need to learn from history. In the past, we allowed players with significant go home risk like Membery, Jones and Mitchell to get into their final contract year and when we could not convince them to re-sign we lost them for nothing or unders. If Aliir is considered a significant flight risk then be ready to trade him given his extra currency (he is still in contract for another season) assuming a good deal comes. This is the new normal of trade period.

It seems we need extra points so a draft pick 20 to 30 might be very useful to us and avoid future points deficits. His market value is probably in that range. We are not in the window yet so let's recruit the best #3 available and the two Academy kids.

PS Like others I don't think Adelaide will receive an extra early draft pick for Crouch.

[Ludwig]

Live or dead? (The fruit flies, not you).

They're breeding like rabbits.

[Melbourne_Blood]

While I would rather keep Aliir we also need to learn from history. In the past, we allowed players with significant go home risk like Membery, Jones and Mitchell to get into their final contract year and when we could not convince them to re-sign we lost them for nothing or unders. If Aliir is considered a significant flight risk then be ready to trade him given his extra currency (he is still in contract for another season) assuming a good deal comes. This is the new normal of trade period.

It seems we need extra points so a draft pick 20 to 30 might be very useful to us and avoid future points deficits. His market value is probably in that range. We are not in the window yet so let's recruit the best #3 available and the two Academy kids.

PS Like others I don't think Adelaide will receive an extra early draft pick for Crouch.

That’s exactly my point too. If other teams are coming for AA then we should get something of value while we can, rather than wait until he’s out of contract and get shafted again ( Mitchell , Jones .. ) Jones was worth a pick 22 at worst , we got 31.


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[Markwebbos]

That’s exactly my point too. If other teams are coming for AA then we should get something of value while we can, rather than wait until he’s out of contract and get shafted again ( Mitchell , Jones .. ) Jones was worth a pick 22 at worst , we got 31.


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I think the trade value of players is WAY under what they are actually worth, perhaps because the system currently favours VIC clubs.

Zak Jones, pick 15 now 25 years old, just played 100 games, so in his prime. If you factor in the hit and miss nature of drafting [I'm sure someone out there could provide the probability of a pick 15 making it] then surely he's worth pick 15 or better?

[MattW]

I actually tend to agree to an extent, but given we're now 4 full seasons down the track, you would have to say we've probably mismanaged him then if all he's done since is be tried forward a few times and been used as a makeshift ruck when we've got desperate.

Those games in 2016 between Rd 16 to the SF were really good - but they were games 3-12 of his career. He'd done a reasonable apprenticeship in the reserves prior and was playing with confidence, which we've only seen in the briefest of glimpses since.

In 2017-18 we were at least still playing finals so you could argue that we couldn't afford to persevere or experiment in trying to nurture him into form, but the last two years would have been the perfect opportunity to give him a proper extended run at being a key defender. He has to hold down one role and be a second ruck option, but I think in Longmire's eyes he is behind other players in every other area.

Agree with every word of this.

When Aliir got injured in the 2016 preliminary final it felt material to our premiership prospects the following week - he seemed that influential.

I don't think he's gotten to that level again. So, as with Rohan, there's a question as to the extent that's on the club or the player. And as with Rohan, I can't help but feel we've eroded his confidence a bit by not conveying trust in him. It's a bit sad.

But looking at it bluntly, the question is what prospect is there of him playing an influential role now, based on the last year or two. I think he could, but the last line of Steve's post is telling. Longmire seems to have given up on him playing an important role in defence and I suspect we have ambitions to move beyond needing him in a makeshift ruck role.

So we get back to forthcoming trade and draft period. Let's say we want to use pick 3, draft Campbell and Gulden between picks 6-25, and somehow recruit a competent ruck. Those things aren't going to happen unless we give something up. There are very few players on the list with any value that we'd be happy to give up. If Port are prepared to pay overs for Aliir (e.g a pick in the late 20s), I think we'll take it. The reports they've offered a contract and absence of any public push back from us, suggests there's something to it, I reckon.

[KTigers]

I suppose Aliir could tell Port he signed a contract to play for the Swans in 2021 and will be honoring it.
That'd be novel.

[Thunder Shaker]

So we get back to forthcoming trade and draft period. Let's say we want to use pick 3, draft Campbell and Gulden between picks 6-25, and somehow recruit a competent ruck. Those things aren't going to happen unless we give something up. There are very few players on the list with any value that we'd be happy to give up. If Port are prepared to pay overs for Aliir (e.g a pick in the late 20s), I think we'll take it. The reports they've offered a contract and absence of any public push back from us, suggests there's something to it, I reckon.

Port would be unwilling to give up their picks (26, 31, 39, 51, 53, 89) because they have two prospects (one Academy, one F/S) they want to draft.

Their first prospect is Lachlan Jones (NGA) and he's ranked #9 on the October Draft Central Power Rankings. By comparison, the same rankings has Campbell at #7 and Gulden at #29 (out of 30).

Their other prospect is Taj Schofield (F/S). He's not ranked in the top 30, but could conceivably end up being drafted late in the second round or early third round (perhaps by Port with pick 39).

If Jones is drafted at #10 and Schofield at #30, Port would have enough points but not by much. They would not be willing to part with their first three picks.

If Port are not willing to give up a ruckman for Aliir, I expect Port to be trading future picks. Their future second-round pick may not be enough, but their future first-round pick may be overs. However, as Aliir is a contracted player, the first demand should be Port's future first-round pick, and proceed from there.

[jono2707]

I suppose Aliir could tell Port he signed a contract to play for the Swans in 2021 and will be honoring it.
That'd be novel.

That's a crazy suggestion....

Also Aliir is one of our most marketable players, probably third behind Buddy and Heeney. That's gonna count for something too.

[Markwebbos]

According to SEN, Saints are offloading 2 players to Crows in order to give them the cap space to pay Crouch enough to trigger pick 2 as RFA compo.

The two Saints who could be off to Adelaide as part of Crouch negotiations

I wonder if that will happen? Damien Barratt is adamant they won’t get pick 2