2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Nico]

Even in a normal year without the possibility of list size reductions, we don't have many obvious delistings this year. Thurlow was the most obvious one for me a few weeks back, but now he's in the side and playing well. Naismith is under contract, so he would have to retire to get off the list. We can all come up with a few names that we think should be delisted, but none are clearly obvious ones. Reynolds, being injured and out of contract becomes one possibility. I think we would probably like to give Rowles a chance to see what he can do in a regular competition, but that's not going to happen this year. I think Clarke will find it hard to get games in the future; he's not a bad player and he has his fans on RWO, but he has to be a high possibility for being cut. And we don't have any retirements. So it's not easy to create open spots on our list.

That sums up why I think we will have few additions to the club this year, and next as well. I think 3 players will come from the draft or via a traded out draft pick. A Daniher recruitment is an open question. So he could be the 4th. I don't think we are that keen to cut players like Ronke, Amartey, Stoddart, Wicks, Knoll, Maibaum or Mclean, but these would be the next group that cuts could come from if we have an imposed list reduction. The chances of replacing any of them with a better prospect toward the end of the draft is unlikely.

I have noted in several of my previous posts that these next 2 years have no obvious retirements, and I thought we would have a 2 year period of few newbies coming to the club. This would allow our large list of young prospects to make their way through the system and we can sort out which ones are keepers after having a proper look at them. So, a mandatory list size reduction would have a big impact on us, coming at a time when we have so many players in early development.

I think Ronke will go regardless. For mine he has gone to the back of the queue given his poor form. He might have some currency with a couple of Melbourne clubs.

[707]

Do you think the swans will only pick up 3 players in the draft?

Providing we don't change ladder position, and that's become more unlikely with Rampe out for the season, we'll have a pick around 4/5/6 which is probably too early for other clubs to bid on Campbell whose seen I think as a 10-15 pick.

So we'll take someone with our first, and there's lots of juicy types in that range mids, KPF, KPD, we have enough points already to match a Campbell bid in the 10-15 range, Gulden at 171cm will attract a bid you'd think in the later second round which we'll match by having the needed points deducted from our 2021 second round points pushing it back in next years order. That would be a great haul given where our list currently is.

All that could be thrown into disarray if Papley again wants to go home and we relent in which case it would be a very good first rounder added to our arsenal.

The scene would then look different, still take a player with our top pick, the Papley pick could be used to match Campbell, we'd then have a low/mid 20s pick to use before having to match Gulden with picks in the 50s. No damage to our 2021 picks.

My bet would be on the first scenario, top liner with our first, match Campbell and Gulden, three total, after that it depends on list size decisions.

Daniher, if he still wants to come would be as a FA or PSD if Dodo gets stupid again :-)

[AB Swannie]

Stolen and adapted from BigFooty:

Contract Expires - 2020
Joel Amartey (Cat A Rookie - 3rd Year)
James Bell
Kaiden Brand
Ryan Clarke
Zac Foot
Robbie Fox
George Hewett
Josh Kennedy
Michael Knoll (Cat A Rookie - 2nd Year)
Matthew Ling
Jake Maibaum (Cat A Rookie - 1st Year)
Hayden McLean (Cat A Rookie 2nd Year)
Lewis Melican
Harry Reynolds (Cat A Rookie - 2nd Year)
Ben Ronke
Brady Rowles (Cat A Rookie - 1st Year)
Ryley Stoddart
Jackson Thurlow
Sam Wicks (Cat B Rookie - 2nd Year)

As Liz rightly points out, we need to have a turnover of at least 3 from our category A list. Therefore, looking at the above players out of contract, the most likely to be under threat of delisting (based on current form and selection) would be Ryan Clarke, Ben Ronke, Riley Stoddart.

Clarke has use as a gritty, hardworking mid but doesn’t have the polish.

Agree with Ludwig that Stoddart still has potential but may just miss out due to a lack of obvious other outs and no retirements.

I would think that Ronke may attract a trade for some points that can be used to match Campbell/Gulden bids.

Amartey is also in massive trouble as he either needs to get upgraded or cut (or redrafted).

How many 3rd year rookies can you keep?

[MattW]

Buddy will definitely play again, it's just a matter of which year.

I would like him to get some games in this year before a big pre season, think that's important for him as he has barely played.

Agreed.

[MattW]

Stolen and adapted from BigFooty:

Contract Expires - 2020
Joel Amartey (Cat A Rookie - 3rd Year)
James Bell
Kaiden Brand
Ryan Clarke
Zac Foot
Robbie Fox
George Hewett
Josh Kennedy
Michael Knoll (Cat A Rookie - 2nd Year)
Matthew Ling
Jake Maibaum (Cat A Rookie - 1st Year)
Hayden McLean (Cat A Rookie 2nd Year)
Lewis Melican
Harry Reynolds (Cat A Rookie - 2nd Year)
Ben Ronke
Brady Rowles (Cat A Rookie - 1st Year)
Ryley Stoddart
Jackson Thurlow
Sam Wicks (Cat B Rookie - 2nd Year)

As Liz rightly points out, we need to have a turnover of at least 3 from our category A list. Therefore, looking at the above players out of contract, the most likely to be under threat of delisting (based on current form and selection) would be Ryan Clarke, Ben Ronke, Riley Stoddart.

Clarke has use as a gritty, hardworking mid but doesn’t have the polish.

Agree with Ludwig that Stoddart still has potential but may just miss out due to a lack of obvious other outs and no retirements.

I would think that Ronke may attract a trade for some points that can be used to match Campbell/Gulden bids.

Amartey is also in massive trouble as he either needs to get upgraded or cut (or redrafted).

How many 3rd year rookies can you keep?

Agree with that. I think Foot and Wicks have more potential upside than Ronke. I've been willing Stoddart to step up, but it's between him and Ling I think.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Carltons picks from heaven....... can we learn from the other extreme ie banking 5 years of amazing draft picks and still only 12th on the table ?

There seems to be a lot of confidence from our most long standing forum contributors that we are on the right track with our youth policy going to the draft

What a bounty of picks below.....incredible........yet 12th on the table currently after 5 years of glory at the draft...... picking the eyes out of the treasure chest !

Massive advantage being in melb also re trading and or keeping talent local ?

2016 - Pick 1,10, 23, 53
2016 - Pick 5, Pick 6, Pick 27, Pick 47, Pick 59, Pick 61, Pick 65.
2017 - Pick 3, Pick 10, Pick 30, Pick 70
2018 - Pick 1, Pick 19, Pick 66, Pick 70
2019 - Pick 17, Pick 20, Pick 47

5th year of incredible access to the draft
only 12th on the table 5 years later

will we not follow a similar path especially with Rampe, Bud and Kennedy etc moving on ?

what will prevent us from following a similar pattern ? I have heard many on hear say we cant attract who we have desired the last few years as trades?

Do we need to lobby the AFL asap or end up a GC and Brisvegas or Carlton ie lost in the wilderness until the AFL stepped in with Brissie and or GC Suns ?

[Ludwig]

I think Ronke will go regardless. For mine he has gone to the back of the queue given his poor form. He might have some currency with a couple of Melbourne clubs.

After his 7 goal, 3 Brownlow vote 3rd game in 2018, it was always going to be hard to meet expectations for Ben. He did fall out of form last year, but finished the season reasonably well, playing the last 8 of 9 games. It was unlucky to be out for the season with a back injury this year.

In the end, I think you're right on his future at the Swans, mainly because there's too much competition for his kind of role, so he's expendable. I still feel he's not far off being a player that a lot of clubs will like. Anyone with speed and an eye for goal is a hot property. Think of Dan Butler; lost his spot at Richmond, traded, and now looking to be an AA.

As Liz rightly points out, we need to have a turnover of at least 3 from our category A list. Therefore, looking at the above players out of contract, the most likely to be under threat of delisting (based on current form and selection) would be Ryan Clarke, Ben Ronke, Riley Stoddart.

Although technically correct, it's easy to manipulate the Cat A rookie list. Done so often, it's a farce. The AFL should abolish it, and they might do it this year.

We could cut 3 rookies and replace them with Stoddart, Thurlow and Ronke, for example. Although Gray is under contract, I believe it's still possible to delist and resign him as a rookie at the same contract terms. We rookie listed Tippett in the last year of his contract. I think there are many examplea of rookie listing main list players.

[Ludwig]

Carltons picks from heaven....... can we learn from the other extreme ie banking 5 years of amazing draft picks and still only 12th on the table ?

There seems to be a lot of confidence from our most long standing forum contributors that we are on the right track with our youth policy going to the draft

What a bounty of picks below.....incredible........yet 12th on the table currently after 5 years of glory at the draft...... picking the eyes out of the treasure chest !

Massive advantage being in melb also re trading and or keeping talent local ?

2016 - Pick 1,10, 23, 53
2016 - Pick 5, Pick 6, Pick 27, Pick 47, Pick 59, Pick 61, Pick 65.
2017 - Pick 3, Pick 10, Pick 30, Pick 70
2018 - Pick 1, Pick 19, Pick 66, Pick 70
2019 - Pick 17, Pick 20, Pick 47

5th year of incredible access to the draft
only 12th on the table 5 years later

will we not follow a similar path especially with Rampe, Bud and Kennedy etc moving on ?

what will prevent us from following a similar pattern ? I have heard many on hear say we cant attract who we have desired the last few years as trades?

Do we need to lobby the AFL asap or end up a GC and Brisvegas or Carlton ie lost in the wilderness until the AFL stepped in with Brissie and or GC Suns ?

It just shows it takes more than good players to make a good team. Maybe it's the constant turnover of the coaching staff that's the problem.

[Thunder Shaker]

Everyone should have a link to the BF Trading, Drafting, FA board where an Essendon supporter maintains the absolute best and easy to read chart of all draft picks. It's my bible when looking at who has what picks.

It seems to update every game which is excellent, the only picks that never move are Adelaide's original picks that are anchored firmly at the start of every round, we have their first pick in Round Four.

Here is a link to the BF chart of all draft picks: Lore's Nominal 2020 Draft Picks
The picks listed do not include the known points deficits. This would have roughly the following effects on the first picks:
* Fremantle: pick 6 to pick 9
* GWS: pick 29 to pick 42
* Port Adelaide: pick 24 to pick 28

[waswan]

The thing with new kids vs Ronke, Gray etc is that these kids apply pressure and make tackles.

Ronkes lack of goals doesnt bother me as much as his lack of contest and its not.like he makes up for that with ball in hand

[liz]

I thought Ronke played some good football at the start of this season. He was a bit further up the ground, and was probably leading "clean goal assists" after the early rounds. He was preferred at selection table over both Taylor and Gray before he got injured, and was more effective than either. Ignoring the inconvenient fact of contracts, I'd much prefer we kept him than Gray (or Taylor, though I think he'll make a solid contribution over the next few seasons, given the chance).

Going against Ronke is that he hasn't proved to be very durable, physically. Maybe that's just bad luck, but I'm sure it plays a part when clubs are making difficult list management decisions.

[mattybloods]

This is not a good year to have early draft picks. Normally I'd say keep your early picks but this year I'd be happy to trade down if we get something good in return. For example a ruckman like Ladhams with a swap of first round picks. I'm not against paying overs this year

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[707]

This is not a good year to have early draft picks. Normally I'd say keep your early picks but this year I'd be happy to trade down if we get something good in return. For example a ruckman like Ladhams with a swap of first round picks. I'm not against paying overs this year

It's as good a year this year as any to have early picks and for once there's a good mix of players, X factor mids, KPF, KPD, a number of whom are plying their trade impressively in the SANFL and WAFL.

Port don't have a first rounder in reference to the Ladhams "trade"

Still say we go with best available with our first, match Campbell and Gulden, a nice haul.

[caj23]

Much better having an early pick as those highly rated have been watched closely and have exposed form from last year

The risk is in the later picks as it’s such a big unknown

We’d be crazy to trade down our top 3 pick

We’re very lucky we have our 2 academy boys for our later picks

[Markwebbos]

Didn’t realise how much strife Richmond are in with an excess of talent!

The rookie list conundrum Richmond will face

Richmond have the maximum six Category A rookies in 2020 – Jake Aarts, Liam Baker, Mabior Chol, Derek Eggmolesse-Smith, Marlion Pickett and Sydney Stack – and all are currently regulars in coach Damien Hardwick’s best 22.

Three of those rookies – Aarts, Pickett, Eggmolesse-Smith – are out of contract. Under AFL rules, players who have been on the rookie list for two years or more can reject another rookie contract and become unrestricted free agents.