2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Blood Fever]

I think, outside of Sam N, AA has the potential to be our best ruckman and to offer the most outside of winning hitouts. And I don't think he has a spot in the backline with the move of McCartin down back. But I think he's not quite tall enough to be the main man. Happy to be proved wrong.

When he is at the centre bounce, he wins the clearance more than some of our midfielders despite competing for the tap!

[giant]

I don't see the Vezpremi comparison at all. Vezpremi look like he struggled at the level pretty much straight away, whereas Stephens clearly has class (IMO), confidence and is improving game on game. With respect, I can't even conceive of a basis you'd make that comparison.

The comparison wasn't with Vezpremi the player, rather the selection (instead of Rioli) which arguably played a role in us losing a couple of flags. I can see Stephens' talents - I also see a bloke who constantly overruns or fumbles the ball, regularly gets caught with it with little match awareness, and despite being a gifted ball player frequently misses his targets or makes poor decisions. My point isn't to bag Stephens (though none of those aspects of his game endears him to me) - my point is that we often seem to want to pull off the miracle draft selection when a perfectly safe quality option, like Serong, is available.

[giant]

Is there enough room on the SCG for Ben Brown to take his run up?

The plus side is that when he was taking a shot you'd feel like you were a part of the action wherever you were sitting!

[AB Swannie]

The comparison wasn't with Vezpremi the player, rather the selection (instead of Rioli) which arguably played a role in us losing a couple of flags. I can see Stephens' talents - I also see a bloke who constantly overruns or fumbles the ball, regularly gets caught with it with little match awareness, and despite being a gifted ball player frequently misses his targets or makes poor decisions. My point isn't to bag Stephens (though none of those aspects of his game endears him to me) - my point is that we often seem to want to pull off the miracle draft selection when a perfectly safe quality option, like Serong, is available.

FWIW, Cal Twomey rated Serong at pick 8 and Stephens at pick 9. Chris Doerre (AKA Knightmare) had Stephens ranked higher than Serong in his power rankings (Stephens 8, Serong 11). Sam Flanders was the one seen as the one who slipped.

My point is that in hindsight it seems like Serong was a safe pick because he has come out and won the Rising Star but the people who had watched much more junior footy than you and me didn't have it the way you see it now.

Stephens is a jet. I'm happy to hitch my wagon to his stocks as I think he will play about 150-200 more games than Vezpremi. On another note, Rioli was never an option due to his draft tampering.

[bennyfabulous]

Everyone who thinks we need a gun ruckman to succeed should read that article......stuff it, I'll just quote the relevant section:

"Ruckmen in the modern game do not win you premierships. Ruckmen are the most overrated position in the game with the least influence on the outcome.

There is a litany of examples over the past decade of premiership-winning ruckmen being a small cog in the team’s overall success. Names like Ivan Soldo, Toby Nankervis, Scott Lycett, Nathan Vardy, Jordan Roughead and Ben McEvoy are all solid citizens but absolutely nothing more. They would all be in their premiership team’s bottom six.

There is no better example than Grundy himself in the 2019 preliminary final against GWS, which the Magpies lost. It was a game where Grundy dominated his position.

Grundy’s numbers in that game were extraordinary. He won 73 hit-outs and ten clearances. He had 25 disposals and the Magpies dominated the clearances 54 to 35.

If ruckmen were so influential, Collingwood should have won by ten goals. Alas, all the tap outs in the world couldn’t be converted into genuine match dominance."


We just need a strong midfield, which we are developing already and will strengthen at this years draft (along with, hopefully, a KPF through trading....just not Daniher or Brown! I'd rather Hogan, even with the risks involved).

A one off stats count, as an identifier of game influence is very misleading.
Grundy would have had similar numbers in massive wins as well and been best on ground.
Plugger would have kicked 10+ in losing games. Buddy has kicked bags in losing games. Do key forwards have no influence on matches and premierships?
Mitchell has had games of 40+ disposals in losses, i think one time he had 50 in a loss for Hawthorn. Do mids have no influence on games/premierships?

Stats are decieving.

Obviously one area of the ground doesn't win games/premierships. Generally the best TEAM does.
But i'm sure we can all agree we have had a decent midfield over the journey and it has always worked far better with a dominant/capable ruckman?

[Blood Fever]

The comparison wasn't with Vezpremi the player, rather the selection (instead of Rioli) which arguably played a role in us losing a couple of flags. I can see Stephens' talents - I also see a bloke who constantly overruns or fumbles the ball, regularly gets caught with it with little match awareness, and despite being a gifted ball player frequently misses his targets or makes poor decisions. My point isn't to bag Stephens (though none of those aspects of his game endears him to me) - my point is that we often seem to want to pull off the miracle draft selection when a perfectly safe quality option, like Serong, is available.

Disagree entirely. I see a potential gun with speed, an elite tank and lovely disposal. And match awareness.

[MattW]

Unfortunately we don't have a version of Woj from ESPN in Australia. So, until the player or club comments, sources are useless.

Haha - the thought of Tim Watson performing the same function as Woj.

[MattW]

With GWS, Geelong and us all looking for a ruckman, it's not going to be easy to get someone we're happy with. A lot hangs on what happens with Daniher, as he's one of the better stand in ruckman for a forward. So if he comes to us, Joe, Sinclair, Reid and Aliir can all do reasonable jobs pretending to be ruckmen. We might be able to get by. Maybe we can get Thilthorpe in the draft. There are some options around other than Preuss, who I don't see as a good long term solution. We still want someone quick in the middle.

Thilthorpe is 'only' 200cm. Unless there's a growth spurt he's not going to be a genuine ruckman either.

[MattW]

The comparison wasn't with Vezpremi the player, rather the selection (instead of Rioli) which arguably played a role in us losing a couple of flags. I can see Stephens' talents - I also see a bloke who constantly overruns or fumbles the ball, regularly gets caught with it with little match awareness, and despite being a gifted ball player frequently misses his targets or makes poor decisions. My point isn't to bag Stephens (though none of those aspects of his game endears him to me) - my point is that we often seem to want to pull off the miracle draft selection when a perfectly safe quality option, like Serong, is available.

I think you're way too harsh on a first year player. Best tank in the club and one of the fastest; runs hard to space; tackles well for a spindly lad; attacks with the ball.

Highlights from the most recent game
- running to get the handball receive 12.20 in first quarter
- enjoyed the pass 15.24 into the first quarter
- handball at 12.24 in the third quarter

https://afl.app.link/A9wzZOSE29

Kicked the classiest most enjoyable goal of the year: 14.51 of the fourth quarter:

https://afl.app.link/JhJAUqzF29

I think the rationale may have been that in light of Gulden and Campbell coming in 2020, let's seek a point of difference. @@@@ing nailed it in my view.

[Syd76]

I agree with you Matt. KB and SD are looking at things from a 2 to 3 year perspective. I was initially very disappointed that we didn't draft Serong given he was a Swans fan. However, given the production line that we have in our own backyard, knowing what we know about Campbell and Gulden, KB/SD picked a player who we know will be a class player, who is different to those that they are to draft this year.

Hence, Stephens, who I liken to Gaff (and will be hopefully be much better), will be a hybrid wing/mid that we haven't had for a while.

The interesting thing is who will we pick up with our Pick 3 (Pick 4 once the Dogs match for JUH). My pick is Grainger-Barass/Logan McDonald for the Swans if whichever is still available (if we do not get a JD or contemplate a Ben Brown etc, I think we would prefer Logan McDonald).

1. Dogs: JUH
2. Crows: Thilthorpe (because he is a Adelaide Boy)
3. North: Elijah Hollands (because he will be a solid midfielder - North have many tall types but lack midfield options particularly if they lose Higgins) or Grainger-Barrass
4. Swans: Logan McDonald or Grainger-Barass

They only missing piece after this is a ruck. As much as I respect Naismith (and think he is a good ruckman) he is too injury prone. He will be out for the majority of next year and will find it difficult being retained on the list (particularly if we have to cull a few). Sinclair does not do it for me (goes missing and is beaten by quality rucks). Was hoping to see Knoll, but obviously he wasn't good enough.

Time will tell

[SwanSand]

North will probably give up the pick 3 and split it into 2 first round selection if they don’t have any more. I wouldn’t be surprised that they will make the deal with Geelong - Shaun Higgins along with pick 3 and in return get Multiple quality picks.
If this happens Geelong will go for Logan McDonald given Tom Hawkins is nearing the end.
Elijah for us I think.

[Auntie.Gerald]

* Current as of end of home and away season Sydney has 3,22,54,56

1 Adelaide Crows
2 North Melbourne
3 Sydney Swans
4 Hawthorn
5 Gold Coast Suns
6 Essendon
7 Carlton
8 Adelaide Crows
9 North Melbourne
10 Geelong
11 Fremantle
12 Collingwood
13 Western Bulldogs
14 St Kilda
15 Geelong Cats
16 Geelong Cats
17 Richmond
18 Brisbane Lions
19 Brisbane Lions
20 Adelaide Crows
21 Hawthorn
22 Sydney Swans
23 Melbourne
24 Gold Coast Suns
25 North Melbourne
26 Port Adelaide
27 Carlton
28 Fremantle
29 Port Adelaide
30 Adelaide Crows
31 Richmond
32 West Coast Eagles
33 Geelong Cats
34 Collingwood
35 Gold Coast Suns
36 Western Bulldogs
37 Collingwood
38 Brisbane Lions
39 Hawthorn
40 GWS Giants
41 Essendon
42 Hawthorn
43 Port Adelaide
44 Adelaide Crows
45 Carlton
46 GWS Giants
47 Melbourne
48 Adelaide Crows
49 Western Bulldogs
50 Port Adelaide
51 West Coast Eagles
52 West Coast Eagles
53 Richmond
54 Sydney
55 Port Adelaide
56 Sydney
57 North Melbourne
58 St Kilda
59 Hawthorn
60 Adelaide Crows
61 Essendon
62 Melbourne
63 Melbourne
64 Brisbane Lions
65 North Melbourne
66 GWS Giants
67 Hawthorn
68 Collingwood
69 Essendon
70 Essendon
71 Richmond
72 Gold Coast Suns
73 St Kilda

[Melbourne_Blood]

I agree with you Matt. KB and SD are looking at things from a 2 to 3 year perspective. I was initially very disappointed that we didn't draft Serong given he was a Swans fan. However, given the production line that we have in our own backyard, knowing what we know about Campbell and Gulden, KB/SD picked a player who we know will be a class player, who is different to those that they are to draft this year.

Hence, Stephens, who I liken to Gaff (and will be hopefully be much better), will be a hybrid wing/mid that we haven't had for a while.

The interesting thing is who will we pick up with our Pick 3 (Pick 4 once the Dogs match for JUH). My pick is Grainger-Barass/Logan McDonald for the Swans if whichever is still available (if we do not get a JD or contemplate a Ben Brown etc, I think we would prefer Logan McDonald).

1. Dogs: JUH
2. Crows: Thilthorpe (because he is a Adelaide Boy)
3. North: Elijah Hollands (because he will be a solid midfielder - North have many tall types but lack midfield options particularly if they lose Higgins) or Grainger-Barrass
4. Swans: Logan McDonald or Grainger-Barass

They only missing piece after this is a ruck. As much as I respect Naismith (and think he is a good ruckman) he is too injury prone. He will be out for the majority of next year and will find it difficult being retained on the list (particularly if we have to cull a few). Sinclair does not do it for me (goes missing and is beaten by quality rucks). Was hoping to see Knoll, but obviously he wasn't good enough.

Time will tell

North will probably give up the pick 3 and split it into 2 first round selection if they don’t have any more. I wouldn’t be surprised that they will make the deal with Geelong - Shaun Higgins along with pick 3 and in return get Multiple quality picks.
If this happens Geelong will go for Logan McDonald given Tom Hawkins is nearing the end.
Elijah for us I think.

North have 3 picks inside the first 25, 2 of which are first rounders. Why would they trade pick 3?


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[Markwebbos]

North have 3 picks inside the first 25, 2 of which are first rounders. Why would they trade pick 3?


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If we could get more points from elsewhere why not offer 3 and 22 for pick 2?

[waswan]

Serong/Stephens is not an issue at the moment and may never be an issue, 9 times out of 10 you pick the Swans fan but Stephens doesnt appear to be a flight risk.

Rucks
There are 3 rucks in the comp, Gawn/Grundy/Nicnat that inflate the value of the rest of the rucks.
Having one of these is a diference maker, most of the others are just toilers that negate each other.

Drafting Rucks
English has fooled everyone with his development, he is soon to be in the above group but is 3yrs ahead of the curve for development.

Drafting Rucks with a top 5 pick
Madness, 5 yrs from a payoff if they stay injury free and even then its still speculative.

Sydneys Ruck situation
We need a ruck now not in 5yrs
Melb, with Gawn, have the luxury of not having to play Macdonald in the ruck, if at all only short spurts ours would have to play ruck.

Top 3 Pick
Last rating has 4 of the top 5 picks as Key Position, we could essentially get the best rated mid in the draft, 2 of the best 4 if you include Cambpell, you have to take that everytime. Freo did it with Brayshaw and Cerra and it is paying dividends