2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Thunder Shaker]

This deficit business is way overblown. To even consider trading Aliir or Hewett, 2 established players in our best 22, just to reduce a possible 2021 points deficit is placing far too much importance on this potential deficit. We can probably fix a points deficit problem on draft night by swapping 2021 non-first round picks for one or more in this year's draft. Even if we drop some places for our 1st rounder next year, so what? If we use our picks wisely this year and get the players we want, the deficit is almost irrelevant.

The deficit is likely to be in the 500 to 800 points range. That's not small.

Three clubs are going to this year's draft with points deficits:
* Fremantle (264.9 off first round pick)
* Greater Western Sydney's (254.2 off second-round pick)
* Port Adelaide's (115.9 off second-round pick)
Total 635.0 points.

We could be heading to the draft with a deficit about as big as these combined if we don't act. The AFL may even disallow it altogether, which is not an insignificant risk.

I expect there will be plans to reduce such a deficit, and some trading of future picks is a likely way this would be done.

[waswan]

The worst case is the bid will come at Pick 6 from Dodoro

[jono2707]

Whatever we do, we must match bids on Campbell and Gulden. Both are good enough prospects to be drafted by us, even if they weren't academy boys. Imagine the message you send to the local talent and all associated with our academy if we don't match bids on them? Might as well save ourselves some cash and shut it down..............

I certainly hope we get them both, but for the right 'price'. Like any other draftable player, we'll have figured out where they sit in the draft pecking order, and if a bid comes in at ridiculous overs, maybe we should let them go.

The academy is in the business of producing AFL players - the message it sends the top players coming out of the academy is to be prepared to be taken by any team and play anywhere.

[Scottee]

If I'm not mistaken the NSW Draft Combine starts today.

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[The Runner]

I wouldn't be surprised if we trade our 2021 first round pick for a 2020 top 10 pick to help ensure we don't incur a 2021 first round deficit.

[Auntie.Gerald]

hopefully it is not a Mills scenario.........that would massively hurt this draft

[bloodspirit]

afl.com.au have published a trade state of play summary: https://www.afl.com.au/news/522633/trade-period-state-of-play-your-club-s-targets-who-s-on-the-table.

* Stefan Martin at the Lions is listed as out of contract and gettable. If we're looking for a stopgap option then he might be a good one, depending on how much he costs. I think we could safely assure him that he's likely to be the first choice ruckman next year and after that he'll have to duke out with Naismith if/when Sam is ready to play again. He's old (34 years next month) but I'd still prefer him to Hickey.

* should we consider Matt Kennedy at Carlton? He is a NSW boy and highly rated in his draft year. Still young - turns 24 next year. Wouldn't cost much. If we could somehow effectively trade Ronke for Kennedy (most likely in separate deals), I'd do that.

* Wright and Brodie at the Suns may be of interest but only if they come fairly cheaply in trade terms.

* Quinton Narkle at the Cats catches the eye but I think he'd have other keener suitors better able to satisfy the Cats in a trade.

* What do people think about offering pick 3 for Clayton Oliver, if it could be done?

* Should we be interested in Jarrod Brander from West Coast? And what would he be worth?


There is a helpful list of our players still out of contract: Joel Amartey , Zac Foot, Robbie Fox, Matthew Ling, Hayden McLean, Lewis Melican, Ben Ronke, Jackson Thurlow and Sam Wicks. Interestingly that means Ryan Clarke was already extended at some point we didn't know about (I don't think). (We didn't have to waste our time assuming he and Thurlow were goners for the first half of the season.) Same for Bell, although I think we half knew that - didn't his manager post something somewhere about a year ago? I think Lewis Melican is safe from delisting, as is Fox. I would be surprised to see Wicks delisted. I tend to think we'll keep Ling and probably Thurlow and perhaps trade Ronke. (Maybe to the Bulldogs? Would pick 48 be about right?) Amartey, Foot & McLean I'm just not sure. McLean is young, has a great attitude and is big but is lacking in agility and ability to apply good defensive pressure. If he is holiding down a spot as a forward then I don't think that's a good sign for us. Nor is he able to be a first choice ruck. I think Amartey has a higher ceiling and more versatility but I am yet to be convinced by him - I think he's a poor man's Aliir.

I would be sad to see Aliir go but would consider it as part of a deal for Ladhams or Hayes. If we traded for Ladhams I'd definitely be asking for something extra coming back the other way. If those players are off the table, then I don't think I'd be satisfied by whatever Port is offering. I'd rather keep him than get their best pick (pick 26) and anyway they'll probably need that for Fantasia.

Incidentally, as regards our trade strategy and pick 3, I'm with Ludwig all the way.

[gloveski]

afl.com.au have published a trade state of play summary: https://www.afl.com.au/news/522633/trade-period-state-of-play-your-club-s-targets-who-s-on-the-table.

* Stefan Martin at the Lions is listed as out of contract and gettable. If we're looking for a stopgap option then he might be a good one, depending on how much he costs. I think we could safely assure him that he's likely to be the first choice ruckman next year and after that he'll have to duke out with Naismith if/when Sam is ready to play again.

* should we consider Matt Kennedy at Carlton? He is a NSW boy and highly rated in his draft year. Still young - turns 24 next year. Wouldn't cost much.

* Wright and Brodie at the Suns may be of interest but only if they come fairly cheaply in trade terms.

* Quinton Narkle at the Cats catches the eye but I think he'd have other keener suitors better able to satisfy the Cats in a trade.

* What do people think about offering pick 3 for Clayton Oliver, if it could be done?

* Should we be interested in Jarrod Brander from West Coast? And what would he be worth?

There is a helpful list of our players still out of contract: Joel Amartey

,

Zac Foot

,

Robbie Fox

,

Matthew Ling

,

Hayden McLean

,

Lewis Melican

,

Ben Ronke

,

Jackson Thurlow

and

Sam Wicks. Interestingly that means Ryan Clarke was already extended at some point we didn't know about (I don't think). (We didn't have to waste our time assuming he and Thurlow were goners for the first half of the season.) Same for Bell, although I think we half knew that - didn't his manager post something somewhere about a year ago? I think Lewis Melican is safe from delisting, as is Fox. I would be surprised to see Wicks delisted. I tend to think we'll keep Ling and probably Thurlow and perhaps trade Ronke. (Maybe to the Bulldogs? Would pick 48 be about right?) Amartey, Foot & McLean I'm just not sure. McLean is young, has a great attitude and is big but is lacking in agility and ability to apply good defensive pressure. If he is holiding down a spot as a forward then I don't think that's a good sign for us. Nor is he able to be a first choice ruck. I think Amartey has a higher ceiling and more versatility but I am yet to be convinced by him - I think he's a poor man's Aliir.

I would be sad to see Aliir go but would consider it as part of a deal for Ladhams or Hayes. If we traded for Ladhams I'd definitely be asking for something extra coming back the other way. If those players are off the table, then I don't think I'd be satisfied by whatever Port is offering. I'd rather keep him than get their best pick (pick 26) and anyway they'll probably need that for Fantasia.

Incidentally, as regards our trade strategy and pick 3, I'm with Ludwig all the way.

If Oliver was on the table for pick 3 I would take it every day of the week


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[bloodspirit]

If Oliver was on the table for pick 3 I would take it every day of the week


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Apparently Oliver is disgruntled but the Dees are not considering trading him: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2020-afl-trades-melbourne-clayton-oliver-glen-bartlett-simon-goodwin-melbourne-results-afl-ladder-max-gawn/news-story/9ab810502bb5080c3379ff326b8b64fe.

[Thunder Shaker]

afl.com.au have published a trade state of play summary: https://www.afl.com.au/news/522633/trade-period-state-of-play-your-club-s-targets-who-s-on-the-table.

What they say about the Swans (summarised for copyright reasons):

* Indicative draft picks: 3, 22, 52, 56, 76.
* Want a young ruckman in the 22-25 age bracket.
* Port after Aliir Aliir, Swans disclosed no intention to trade.
* Players out of contract: Joel Amartey, Zac Foot, Robbie Fox, Matthew Ling, Hayden McLean, Lewis Melican, Ben Ronke, Jackson Thurlow and Sam Wicks.
* Delisted: Michael Knoll, Jack Maibaum, Harry Reynolds, Brady Rowles, Ryley Stoddart.
* Dream trade period: A young ruckman who is ready to play. Stockpiling enough draft points for Academy prospects Braeden Campbell (expected pick 5-10) and Errol Gulden (15-30). Taking pick 3 to the draft.

[Captain]

afl.com.au have published a trade state of play summary: https://www.afl.com.au/news/522633/trade-period-state-of-play-your-club-s-targets-who-s-on-the-table.

* Stefan Martin at the Lions is listed as out of contract and gettable. If we're looking for a stopgap option then he might be a good one, depending on how much he costs. I think we could safely assure him that he's likely to be the first choice ruckman next year and after that he'll have to duke out with Naismith if/when Sam is ready to play again. He's old (34 years next month) but I'd still prefer him to Hickey.

* should we consider Matt Kennedy at Carlton? He is a NSW boy and highly rated in his draft year. Still young - turns 24 next year. Wouldn't cost much. If we could somehow effectively trade Ronke for Kennedy (most likely in separate deals), I'd do that.

* Wright and Brodie at the Suns may be of interest but only if they come fairly cheaply in trade terms.

* Quinton Narkle at the Cats catches the eye but I think he'd have other keener suitors better able to satisfy the Cats in a trade.

* What do people think about offering pick 3 for Clayton Oliver, if it could be done?

* Should we be interested in Jarrod Brander from West Coast? And what would he be worth?

Pick 3 for Oliver is the only thing that interests me here (which Melbourne would never do). The rest is just a waste of time.

[Thunder Shaker]

Trade Talk - AFL

More discussion on Port's interest in Aliir, calling him a "Westoff replacement".

If they're that keen to chase a contracted player, their 2021 first-round pick has to be on the table.

[SwanSand]

I would be surprised if Stefan Martin is not considered by GWS as a stop gap arrangement.
Matthew Kennedy seems to have found his mojo again in 2020 albeit a different position (forward) so i doubt Carlton would let him go. Clayton Oliver - absolutely what we need and would be a starter. He will make us go up very quickly as he will give us the inside grunt that we need. His disposals are again poor especially kicking skills. I doubt he would be let go by Melbourne especially if they are getting Isaac Smith .. it makes his inside grunt and chance of getting up the ladder in 2021 important.
Peter Wright - I doubt we would be interested.
Will Brodie and Connor Blakely sit in the same bracket. We can look at them but would be difficult to find the right picks for getting them unless they come for nothing.
Pick 3 - would not give for anyone unless the absolute one that we need - Very good KPF, Established Ruckman, Or A grade midfielder.
Take both Campbell and Gulden. We are a young team and we need to make sure we don't miss on quality.
Delist - Zac Foot and maybe Amartey if we find suitable replacements.
Rest all stay.

Aliir to go only if we get Sam Hayes/Peter Ladhams in return which I think will happen given how desperate PA is to fix the defensive half of the ground. Only thing is both Sam Hayes and Peter Ladhams are not best 22 for PA so Aliir value is more than any of them. Aliir and future 3rd rounder to PA, Sam Hayes/Peter Ladhams + 2nd rounder this year to Sydney ( I am unsure where the 2nd rounder this year vs 3rd rounder next year will fall but I guess is we should get a bit more value for Aliir than just a player in return). They will probably give up Sam Hayes than Peter.
I don't think either of them can do all the ruck work for us - which means we will end up playing 2 rucks in 2021 - Callum Sinclair and the replacement.

Can Callum Sinclair do defensive work and be remodelled as a defender ? - > a la Ben McEvoy.

[bloodspirit]

The NSW/ACT boys draft combine was held yesterday: https://aflnswact.com.au/2020-nab-aflw-afl-national-draft-combine-nominees/. Does anyone know when the national draft combine is planned? Apparently there are 5 NSW/ACT boys invited including Braeden Campbell and Errol Gulden, along with Charlie Byrne, Joshua Green and Tom Highmore.

[Scottee]

The NSW/ACT boys draft combine was held yesterday: https://aflnswact.com.au/2020-nab-aflw-afl-national-draft-combine-nominees/. Does anyone know when the national draft combine is planned? Apparently there are 5 NSW/ACT boys invited including Braeden Campbell and Errol Gulden, along with Charlie Byrne, Joshua Green and Tom Highmore.

I understood it was state based this year and that it was being held today.

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