2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Markwebbos]

It is pretty hard to understand why we’d offer Hickey 3 years after Gray-gate and given he’ll be 30 next year.

We appear to be trying to bring in players on the cheap ATM (Brand and Gray were both DFA, Taylor cost pick 48), possibly so we won’t weaken our draft hand.

This feels like an extension of that strategy.

I would hope that this will change in the next 1-2 years to coincide with the end of the Buddy contract and the maturing of our list.

[troyjones2525]

That's very disappointing news on Hickey, from what I've seen of him he's at his best on the farm, in the potato field. Would be massively upset if this is true.

Can't believe WC want a pick for him, what a cheek! That they got shafted by the Cats last year in the Kelly trade leaving them bereft of picks this year is their problem.

I'd rather grab a state leaguer for free as Sinclair back up, rucks are over rated.

Was thinking the same thing re state leaguer!

We are obviously desperate for a ruckman and probably want one that can play seniors straight away. Is Hickey a better option than Sinkers??? Maybe, and I mean maybe... They are probably very similar in output so we are really just going for someone who we think is gettable out of desperation as there is nobody else in the AFL that is either gettable cheaply, or wants to come to us!

I would much prefer for us to take a stab at an unknown tall ruckman in one of the state leagues in their early 20s, someone who shows a bit of athleticism and hope for the best! Maybe there is no one out there? I know we have tried it in the past and failed (Knoll) so maybe that's it too? But I think the desperate bid on Hickey is a mistake as we may as well just stick with Sinkers for free... at least he has a crack!

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[Auntie.Gerald]

If we compare ourselves to the team that has won 3 GFs the last 4 or so years.

What do we see we are missing in our squad vs theirs? Besides dusty Martin

Have they attracted local or interstate returning talent more successfully than us?

How do they score their points vs us?

How do they stop the opposition from scoring vs how we do it?

Where do they have greater control of field position vs us?

[The Big Cat]

If we compare ourselves to the team that has won 3 GFs the last 4 or so years.

What do we see we are missing in our squad vs theirs? Besides dusty Martin

Have they attracted local or interstate returning talent more successfully than us?

How do they score their points vs us?

How do they stop the opposition from scoring vs how we do it?

Where do they have greater control of field position vs us?

They don’t have a salary cap, we do.

[MattW]

Ok, for those condemning Hickey to the potato farm: I've never really paid attention to him, ao please talk me through it.

This is how I see it:

In his last three years at St Kilda he averaged between 12 and 15 disposals, 3 marks, 3 tackles, 24-29 hitouts, 3.5-4.5 clearances. He was having a good year with similar stats as first choice ruck in 2019, until the numbers fell away when he was the relief ruck to Naitanui when Nick returned from injury in the finals.

That's about on a par with Sinclair's 2017-2019 period, except that Sinclair averaged fewer clearances (between 2-3).

On the face of that, they both seem generally mediocre in the ruck but Hickey a little better at ground level. That seems supported by the quotes in this article: https://thewest.com.au/sport/west-co...881273810z.amp

Hickey would be competition with Sinclair as second ruck, seemingly offering more at ground level (in which regard Callum seems to have fallen off the cliff). If we're offering three years, then perhaps we're not re-signing Sinclair after the last year of his contract in 2021.

Naismith is still the number 1 ruck, which is obviously very problematic, but what are we going to do? We don't have trade collateral for a first choice ruck, so we're left patching it up until we do (or can somehow draft someone to develop).

[Markwebbos]

Was thinking the same thing re state leaguer!

We are obviously desperate for a ruckman and probably want one that can play seniors straight away. Is Hickey a better option than Sinkers??? Maybe, and I mean maybe... They are probably very similar in output so we are really just going for someone who we think is gettable out of desperation as there is nobody else in the AFL that is either gettable cheaply, or wants to come to us!

I would much prefer for us to take a stab at an unknown tall ruckman in one of the state leagues in their early 20s, someone who shows a bit of athleticism and hope for the best! Maybe there is no one out there? I know we have tried it in the past and failed (Knoll) so maybe that's it too? But I think the desperate bid on Hickey is a mistake as we may as well just stick with Sinkers for free... at least he has a crack!

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I think we may be burnt by the Knoll experiment and want a ruck with runs in the board. Hickey probably is a minor upgrade on Sinkers.

And Sinkers is 32 next year.

We’ve got Naismith who in theory should return, perhaps we’ll try to pick up a player with 2-3 years on a list like CCJ too?

[MattW]

That's very disappointing news on Hickey, from what I've seen of him he's at his best on the farm, in the potato field. Would be massively upset if this is true.

Can't believe WC want a pick for him, what a cheek! That they got shafted by the Cats last year in the Kelly trade leaving them bereft of picks this year is their problem.

I'd rather grab a state leaguer for free as Sinclair back up, rucks are over rated.

I disagree that rucks are overrated. We effectively started two goals down in each game Naismith didn't play last year because we were so @@@@ in the ruck. Conversely, we looked to have an advantage for the couple of games Naismith was in there, tapping down the throats of our mids.

If Hickey is more competitive in the air than Amartey, Aliir and McLean, but better at ground level than Sinclair, I can see the benefits.

[neilfws]

If we compare ourselves to the team that has won 3 GFs the last 4 or so years

One of the ABC's excellent "Analysis" articles this year takes a look at factors contributing to success of the Tigers. "Embrace chaos" is an interesting part of their game plan.

The Tigers are truly roaring heading into the AFL grand final, so are we witnessing a dynasty?

Another article that caught my eye was:

Richmond's AFL grand final victory seals its status as one of the greatest teams of the game's modern era

which looks at how their 10-year plan, derided by many as a joke, came to pass in every detail. Quite amazing.

[caj23]

Anyone who thinks Naismith is ever going to play more than a handful of games is kidding themselves, it’s a joke that Longmire has put all of his eggs in that basket over the last few years.

Seems like a great fella, but 28 games in 7 years and is coming off a full knee reco, come on

[111431]

Anyone who thinks Naismith is ever going to play more than a handful of games is kidding themselves, it’s a joke that Longmire has put all of his eggs in that basket over the last few years.

Seems like a great fella, but 28 games in 7 years and is coming off a full knee reco, come on

Agree

[rb4x]

Hickey is not a minor upgrade on Sinkers. He is at best a minor downgrade on Sinkers. If you go to the Player Statistics section for each on the AFL website you will see that Sinkers rates a little above Hickey in virtually every measure. e.g. career Fantasy Points average is 72 for Sinkers and 65.2 for Hickey and basically a similar story for each of the stats measured. Could only accept Hickey as insurance if it is for a pick that has no points attached. Besides Hickey the Eagles have NicNat, Vardy, Bailey Williams and Jamieson as ruckmen on their list so should be very happy to unload Hickey for free or the equivalent thereof.

[MattW]

Hickey is not a minor upgrade on Sinkers. He is at best a minor downgrade on Sinkers. If you go to the Player Statistics section for each on the AFL website you will see that Sinkers rates a little above Hickey in virtually every measure. e.g. career Fantasy Points average is 72 for Sinkers and 65.2 for Hickey and basically a similar story for each of the stats measured. Could only accept Hickey as insurance if it is for a pick that has no points attached. Besides Hickey the Eagles have NicNat, Vardy, Bailey Williams and Jamieson as ruckmen on their list so should be very happy to unload Hickey for free or the equivalent thereof.

Total career stats doesn't tell the full story, given they sometimes play as a second ruck - I think it's worth checking how they each did when playing as a lead ruck, as I set out above.

Having said that, I agree that they're both pretty even, but that Hickey's superiority at ground level is notable. If your ruckman is going to lose taps to a good ruckman, preferable that they can get it and move it when it hits the ground.

[giant]

Agree

+1. Time to move on. Unfortunately, for the first time in a few seasons there are few suitable options in our preferred age demographic - and it's going to get worse as fewer clubs are prepared to invest in young rucks only to have them poached but others. Hickey is an eminently unimpressive option, but may be the best of a bad bunch.

[giant]

There's a lot more truth to your statement then I had hoped. I looked up and the ins and outs of our trading only, not players drafted in. Draw your own conclusions:

* 2014 (trade ban)
Out: Malceski, Biggs

* 2015
In: Sinkers, Talia
Out: Jetta, Bird

*2016
In: Edwards
Out: Nanka, Mitchell

* 2017
Out: Murray

* 2018
In: Clarke, Thurlow, Mendel
Out: Rohan, Hanners, Newman

* 2019
In: Brand, Gray, Taylor

The loss of COLA has smashed us. We are the now the Home for the Desperate and Dateless.

[707]

Always have a couple of rucks developing on the rookie list, quite significant numbers of very good ruckmen have starting as rookies. It's a numbers game though, keep trying them, turn them over until you get a Dean Cox