2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[707]

+1
Jake Lever was a steal at pick 15 ish after comimg off a knee injury......until of course he got a massive pay packet then did his knee.....

Pick 14. From memory Adelaide traded pick 9 and 45 ish to Geelong for pick 9 and 32 ish knowing Lever would slip to their later first round pick. Crows with their "go home" problem should never draft someone with the name leaver!

Left for $800k/season at the Dees.

[bloodspirit]

Swans have posted a couple of draft reviews for our 2018 & 2019 drafts by Kinnear Beatson:

https://www.sydneyswans.com.au/video/839958/draft-revisited-2019?videoId=839958&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1606976710001
https://www.sydneyswans.com.au/video/840060/draft-revisited-2018?videoId=840060&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1607042739001

Of interest:

* Stephens going ok, needs to build his body and use his speed more

* Tank is not the issue with Gould - he has needed to work on his defensive skills (whatever they are) and is expected to debut in the season ahead

* Chad Warner has to build his tank and work on his "transitional running" - doing fine with winning and using the ball

* Nick Blakey and Justin McInerney coming along but still learning what they need to

* Rowy going great (tell us something we don't know) - really professional in his preparation

* Zac Foot unlucky to be delisted - a chance of being rookie listed, depending on who else is available at our pick(s).

* Elijah Taylor never existed. Ditto Rowles. I guess we can figure out what there is to be said for ourselves.

[aardvark]

+1
Jake Lever was a steal at pick 15 ish after comimg off a knee injury......until of course he got a massive pay packet then did his knee.....

It would be interesting to find out the percentage of players who only do/did an ACL once in their career. I'm guessing it's pretty low.

[Auntie.Gerald]

i think from some research I saw when re habbing my ACL recon........... 1 in 7 athletes who have done their ACL do it again in game sim or game day.

so 6 in 7 dont

The issue is that if you do it a second time you are definitely in the minority to make a come back

[Thunder Shaker]

It would be interesting to find out the percentage of players who only do/did an ACL once in their career. I'm guessing it's pretty low.

Players in past decades usually only did their ACL once because that injury often ended their career.

[dejavoodoo44]

Will Phillips says he'll go anywhere (of course), but would prefer to stay in Victoria. Could be a go home factor in the future, especially if he falls behind some other midfielders, like Campbell and Gulden, and doesn't get the game time he thinks he deserves. If he doesn't play much, or any, in the first year, he would miss out on $4000 a game match fee. It's a big disadvantage for a young midfielder to come to the Swans, because they are likely to miss out on a lot of money early on, which they might want to make up for with bigger contract demands afterwards.

On Phillips, he's my choice if we can't get McDonald or Thilthorpe. However, from various media stories, that are going with the line that him and Clarkson are a mutual admiration society, I get the impression that Hawthorn are very keen on him. When the first of those stories came out a couple of weeks ago, there was also talk that they were keen on Campbell. So I wonder if that was their way of saying, that if you take Phillips at 4, then we'll take Campbell at 5?

Though I could probably be sold on the idea of recruiting DGB: if there was a good chance of doing a reverse McCartin and turning him into a KPF from a KPB.

And speaking of McCartins, I recall you asking a while back, if it's possible that tau tangles could be imaged, in order to make a more informed decision on Paddy McCartin. The answer, as far as I can tell, is not yet, but there is progress.

The progress is in the form of mildly radioactive substance called tauvid, which was approved by the FDA, in the middle of the year. After being injected into the subject, it essentially binds to the tau tangles, but being an unstable substance, it then releases atoms in order to stabilise. These atoms are then picked up by a PET scan.

Tauvid (flortaucipir F 18 injection) dosing, indications, interactions, adverse effects, and more

However, it does state that tauvid is not indicated for CTE. I'm not sure why, but it's possibly just because it hasn't been trialled on CTE patients yet?

I also had a look at diffusion tensor imaging, but as far as I can tell, this is being used to chart axonal regrowth in concussion patients, rather than picking up tangles.

[stevoswan]

Very comfortable with DGB when you see what he's achieved as an 18yo against men in the WAFL. Looks a certainty to become a high grade KPD.

I'm wondering if he has been our target from a long way out, we seemed to let AA slip to Port without a fight.

Very good point.

[Ludwig]

On Phillips, he's my choice if we can't get McDonald or Thilthorpe. However, from various media stories, that are going with the line that him and Clarkson are a mutual admiration society, I get the impression that Hawthorn are very keen on him. When the first of those stories came out a couple of weeks ago, there was also talk that they were keen on Campbell. So I wonder if that was their way of saying, that if you take Phillips at 4, then we'll take Campbell at 5?

I'm surprised how many on here would take Phillips as their choice if the 2 KPFs are gone. It's not a matter of how good Phillips might be, but just how many talented young midfielders can the Swans push through the system. I think we will go over the natural development limit with Campbell and Gulden this year. Phillips is not even a so-called big bodied midfielder that some have wanted to add as a JPK replacement.

Phillips looks a likely choice for Hawthorn, although Hollands would be in the frame if he's still there. Hawthorn don't seem to be concerned about the big body label, as most of their on ballers are all around the same size: Mitchell, O'Meara, Shiels, Worpel and perhaps Will Phillips.

Even though I think Hollands could be the best player in the draft, ACL injury aside, I still think we will go for a KPF at our pick.

I wouldn't be against redrafting Foot. I thought he was a good prospect. But we have so many of his type.

I have a feeling that we weren't too pleased with Aliir not wanting to play in the ruck, although I understand it from Aliir's point of view. It could be a similar call on Peter Wright, also wanting to choose his position. We all know Mills wants to play midfield, but the coach wants him in defence, so he just goes and does the job. Same with Hewett. I think the coaching staff want to make the positional decisions and are not keen on players dictating where they want to play.

We're putting together a pretty good side, not to say that others are not doing the same. The big problem we face in the coming years will be player retention. We will have to give some of these young guns we're recruiting some early game time to keep them interested in staying with us.

[Mark26]

We all know Mills wants to play midfield, but the coach wants him in defence, so he just goes and does the job.

I normally agree with a lot you have to say Ludwig, but I'll disagree with you about Mills' position. He is fabulous down back. Great under pressure. Fantastic disposal. Rarely beaten and loves those intercept marks.

Do I want to see Mills full time in the middle? Absolutely!

Does Mills perceive himself as a mid or a defender? He answered the latter when I asked him early this year.

And for what it's worth I asked the same of Sinkers who was at the same event: forward or ruckman? He answered that he was a ruckman.

[Melbourne_Blood]

I'm surprised how many on here would take Phillips as their choice if the 2 KPFs are gone. It's not a matter of how good Phillips might be, but just how many talented young midfielders can the Swans push through the system. I think we will go over the natural development limit with Campbell and Gulden this year. Phillips is not even a so-called big bodied midfielder that some have wanted to add as a JPK replacement.

Phillips looks a likely choice for Hawthorn, although Hollands would be in the frame if he's still there. Hawthorn don't seem to be concerned about the big body label, as most of their on ballers are all around the same size: Mitchell, O'Meara, Shiels, Worpel and perhaps Will Phillips.

Even though I think Hollands could be the best player in the draft, ACL injury aside, I still think we will go for a KPF at our pick.

I wouldn't be against redrafting Foot. I thought he was a good prospect. But we have so many of his type.

I have a feeling that we weren't too pleased with Aliir not wanting to play in the ruck, although I understand it from Aliir's point of view. It could be a similar call on Peter Wright, also wanting to choose his position. We all know Mills wants to play midfield, but the coach wants him in defence, so he just goes and does the job. Same with Hewett. I think the coaching staff want to make the positional decisions and are not keen on players dictating where they want to play.

We're putting together a pretty good side, not to say that others are not doing the same. The big problem we face in the coming years will be player retention. We will have to give some of these young guns we're recruiting some early game time to keep them interested in staying with us.

Philips looks a tough, solid in and under mid, with pace and clean hands and feet . I’m puzzled that you think our midfield is set and we don’t need to add to it. Rowbottom is good.. what else do we have there for the future ? On the inside ?


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[liz]

I reckon Aliir did pretty well in the ruck - except for one game. He looked absolutely terrified at the prospect at jumping against NicNat in the ruck. I don't really blame him. Not only does NicNat have a huge leap on him, he's a huge man. Far too big for someone who can still jump that effectively. Aliir didn't even both trying to compete at centre bounces in that game, and I got the feeling Longmire wasn't impressed with that. Maybe a tad unreasonably.

I've pretty much only got highlight reels to go on, other than some vague memories of the U17 Futures game before the 2019 Grand Final. I thought Hollands was the best player on the ground by some margin. Campbell was very good with what he did but Hollands' production level was much higher. I remember Phillips being busy in that game too - maybe the second best player but without the power that Hollands displayed.

Of the highlight reels I've watched, I think Thilthorpe's and Campbell's are the most impressive. I realise you need to approach them with caution, but it's the sheer variety of skills, plays and attributes that these two display that I find impressive. With Campbell, for example, we seem him running hard on the outside yet also winning the hard ball. We see him burst from traffic. We see some overhead contested marks and him going into tackle as hard as Heeney does. We see wonderful finishing in front of goal, and also beautiful, pinpoint field kicks. His limitation at the moment seems to be his endurance, which explains why he doesn't get the ball as much as other players. If he had the endurance of Errol, he'd likely be in the mix for the number one draft spot.

Phillips' highlights reel left me a bit nonplussed for the counter reason. It was pretty much one note. He clearly can run all day, knows where to go to get the ball, and can distribute it competently. All teams need a player or two like that, but they're not the most exciting to watch. Think Mitchell. Think Neale. Both have won Brownlows on the basis of accumulating huge possession numbers, but others are far more damaging with ball in hand. I'm somewhat surprised to read him linked to Hawthorn because he seems to be what they already have.

I don't entirely agree with Ludwig that our midfield is set for youth, but I don't think Phillips is what we really need. Part of that is based on the highly likely recruitment of Gulden. Yes, he's a little shorter than Phillips but otherwise they seem to be similar players. Phillips may be a tiny bit quicker - certainly his testing suggests that - but Errol is deceptively quick when the ball is there to be won. Phillips' skills might be a bit better honed, but I think Errol might edge him for creativity and vision (with the qualification that I've watched a lot more of Errol).

I doubt McDonald will be available. I'd be happy with either Hollands or Thilthorpe, notwithstanding injury concerns. Groin problems for young, very tall players who try to run around like midfielders are always a concern, maybe more so than ACL injuries. Look what Daniher has gone through over the last three seasons.

I've seen nothing of Grainger-Barrass. Haven't even watched his highlight reel. As a general rule, I reckon using very high draft picks on rucks, defenders of any kind or small forwards is a complete waste. If you look through the best of all those types of player in the league, they're just as likely to have emerged from the rookie draft (or late in the ND) as they are from the first round. And any tall player, whether key position or ruck, drafted at age 18 poses a high risk of not reaching their potential due to injury. There's just so much more physical development left to happen for a tall teenager than for a "normal sized" player. With tall forwards the risk of taking them with early picks is warranted because you generally have to take that risk. But given you can find perfectly serviceable tall defenders and rucks with much later picks, I'm not a fan of using pick 3/4 on GB.

[Melbourne_Blood]

I reckon Aliir did pretty well in the ruck - except for one game. He looked absolutely terrified at the prospect at jumping against NicNat in the ruck. I don't really blame him. Not only does NicNat have a huge leap on him, he's a huge man. Far too big for someone who can still jump that effectively. Aliir didn't even both trying to compete at centre bounces in that game, and I got the feeling Longmire wasn't impressed with that. Maybe a tad unreasonably.

I've pretty much only got highlight reels to go on, other than some vague memories of the U17 Futures game before the 2019 Grand Final. I thought Hollands was the best player on the ground by some margin. Campbell was very good with what he did but Hollands' production level was much higher. I remember Phillips being busy in that game too - maybe the second best player but without the power that Hollands displayed.

Of the highlight reels I've watched, I think Thilthorpe's and Campbell's are the most impressive. I realise you need to approach them with caution, but it's the sheer variety of skills, plays and attributes that these two display that I find impressive. With Campbell, for example, we seem him running hard on the outside yet also winning the hard ball. We see him burst from traffic. We see some overhead contested marks and him going into tackle as hard as Heeney does. We see wonderful finishing in front of goal, and also beautiful, pinpoint field kicks. His limitation at the moment seems to be his endurance, which explains why he doesn't get the ball as much as other players. If he had the endurance of Errol, he'd likely be in the mix for the number one draft spot.

Phillips' highlights reel left me a bit nonplussed for the counter reason. It was pretty much one note. He clearly can run all day, knows where to go to get the ball, and can distribute it competently. All teams need a player or two like that, but they're not the most exciting to watch. Think Mitchell. Think Neale. Both have won Brownlows on the basis of accumulating huge possession numbers, but others are far more damaging with ball in hand. I'm somewhat surprised to read him linked to Hawthorn because he seems to be what they already have.

I don't entirely agree with Ludwig that our midfield is set for youth, but I don't think Phillips is what we really need. Part of that is based on the highly likely recruitment of Gulden. Yes, he's a little shorter than Phillips but otherwise they seem to be similar players. Phillips may be a tiny bit quicker - certainly his testing suggests that - but Errol is deceptively quick when the ball is there to be won. Phillips' skills might be a bit better honed, but I think Errol might edge him for creativity and vision (with the qualification that I've watched a lot more of Errol).

I doubt McDonald will be available. I'd be happy with either Hollands or Thilthorpe, notwithstanding injury concerns. Groin problems for young, very tall players who try to run around like midfielders are always a concern, maybe more so than ACL injuries. Look what Daniher has gone through over the last three seasons.

I've seen nothing of Grainger-Barrass. Haven't even watched his highlight reel. As a general rule, I reckon using very high draft picks on rucks, defenders of any kind or small forwards is a complete waste. If you look through the best of all those types of player in the league, they're just as likely to have emerged from the rookie draft (or late in the ND) as they are from the first round. And any tall player, whether key position or ruck, drafted at age 18 poses a high risk of not reaching their potential due to injury. There's just so much more physical development left to happen for a tall teenager than for a "normal sized" player. With tall forwards the risk of taking them with early picks is warranted because you generally have to take that risk. But given you can find perfectly serviceable tall defenders and rucks with much later picks, I'm not a fan of using pick 3/4 on GB.

Nice to have you back Liz. Totally agree re: DGB..disagree on Philips though. He looks a midfield gun; was matching it with Rowell when playing with him at the oakleigh chargers. Has pace, toughness, clean hands, we don’t have anyone like that.

[Auntie.Gerald]

i am personally not to worried about the outcome of who we pick because I am sure it will be exciting.........even if we have to wait till yr2 or yr3 like a Stephens draft recruit before we see the magic.

Yet if we are looking at the upside for extra high level mids....... Brisbane without Lachie Neale is a much lesser team. Same again for the Hawks with out Tom Mitchell. The "one note" dominant elite mids are the hands on the clock that create certainty and predictable footy from your team mates.

A seriously dominant midfield allows all the other players on your team to making attacking aggressive runs, lines overlaps, leads etc

AFL at its core is so much about achieving separation when it counts. Leaving your defender 5 metres behind you and you can generally do this when you have guys like Lachie Neale letting the rest of the team to break hard and leave the opposition behind.

its funny we can take a Stephens at pick 5 but not consider the virtues of stacking dominant inside mids at pick 3 ?

If Kennedy retires in 2021
If one of our other guys was targeted in 2021 (say Rowbottom) just like Caldwell was ...........then we would want Phillips in a heart beat wouldnt we ?

yet........... Id take another Buddy Franklin any day

[troyjones2525]

I reckon Aliir did pretty well in the ruck - except for one game. He looked absolutely terrified at the prospect at jumping against NicNat in the ruck. I don't really blame him. Not only does NicNat have a huge leap on him, he's a huge man. Far too big for someone who can still jump that effectively. Aliir didn't even both trying to compete at centre bounces in that game, and I got the feeling Longmire wasn't impressed with that. Maybe a tad unreasonably.

I've pretty much only got highlight reels to go on, other than some vague memories of the U17 Futures game before the 2019 Grand Final. I thought Hollands was the best player on the ground by some margin. Campbell was very good with what he did but Hollands' production level was much higher. I remember Phillips being busy in that game too - maybe the second best player but without the power that Hollands displayed.

Of the highlight reels I've watched, I think Thilthorpe's and Campbell's are the most impressive. I realise you need to approach them with caution, but it's the sheer variety of skills, plays and attributes that these two display that I find impressive. With Campbell, for example, we seem him running hard on the outside yet also winning the hard ball. We see him burst from traffic. We see some overhead contested marks and him going into tackle as hard as Heeney does. We see wonderful finishing in front of goal, and also beautiful, pinpoint field kicks. His limitation at the moment seems to be his endurance, which explains why he doesn't get the ball as much as other players. If he had the endurance of Errol, he'd likely be in the mix for the number one draft spot.

Phillips' highlights reel left me a bit nonplussed for the counter reason. It was pretty much one note. He clearly can run all day, knows where to go to get the ball, and can distribute it competently. All teams need a player or two like that, but they're not the most exciting to watch. Think Mitchell. Think Neale. Both have won Brownlows on the basis of accumulating huge possession numbers, but others are far more damaging with ball in hand. I'm somewhat surprised to read him linked to Hawthorn because he seems to be what they already have.

I don't entirely agree with Ludwig that our midfield is set for youth, but I don't think Phillips is what we really need. Part of that is based on the highly likely recruitment of Gulden. Yes, he's a little shorter than Phillips but otherwise they seem to be similar players. Phillips may be a tiny bit quicker - certainly his testing suggests that - but Errol is deceptively quick when the ball is there to be won. Phillips' skills might be a bit better honed, but I think Errol might edge him for creativity and vision (with the qualification that I've watched a lot more of Errol).

I doubt McDonald will be available. I'd be happy with either Hollands or Thilthorpe, notwithstanding injury concerns. Groin problems for young, very tall players who try to run around like midfielders are always a concern, maybe more so than ACL injuries. Look what Daniher has gone through over the last three seasons.

I've seen nothing of Grainger-Barrass. Haven't even watched his highlight reel. As a general rule, I reckon using very high draft picks on rucks, defenders of any kind or small forwards is a complete waste. If you look through the best of all those types of player in the league, they're just as likely to have emerged from the rookie draft (or late in the ND) as they are from the first round. And any tall player, whether key position or ruck, drafted at age 18 poses a high risk of not reaching their potential due to injury. There's just so much more physical development left to happen for a tall teenager than for a "normal sized" player. With tall forwards the risk of taking them with early picks is warranted because you generally have to take that risk. But given you can find perfectly serviceable tall defenders and rucks with much later picks, I'm not a fan of using pick 3/4 on GB.

Agree re: DGB but I'm betting we will pick him as typical of the Swans we are defence first, offence 2nd...

In saying that he does look a very good young player and will be the "safe" pick at 4.

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[liz]

Agree re: DGB but I'm betting we will pick him as typical of the Swans we are defence first, offence 2nd...

In saying that he does look a very good young player and will be the "safe" pick at 4.

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Maybe, but we are also a club that has built successive, highly effective defensive units relying largely on the rookie draft and back end of the national draft - Barry (failed forward, zone selection), Bolton (PSD), Malceski, Kennelly, Grundy, Smith, Rampe, Aliir, Melican. Crouch was a high draft pick. So was Mills, but he was drafted with midfield in mind, regardless of the reasons why he's still in defence. McVeigh, another high draft pick, only went back to defence at the end of his career. He started in the forward line and through the midfield. Sure, we did give up a late first round draft pick to trade in Richards but he's a bit of an outlier.

I went back and rewatched the Phillips highlight reel to try and put my finger on why I was underwhelmed. I think part of it a lack of any evidence of overhead contests. (Compare to Campbell's reel - I don't think he's thought of as an overhead specialist, in the way that Parker, Heeney and Mills were when drafted, but there are several examples on his reel of very strong contested marks.) And also an almost complete absence of physically attacking contests - ie crashing into packs at draft level. I'm not suggesting he's soft - clearly he puts his head over the ball and seems happy to take contact. There's just not much evidence of him liking to initiate contact. It's more filled with swooping on the ball, almost uncontested ground ball and then backing out the back to find space, rather than crashing through. Compare that to the highlights of, say, Rowbottom before he was drafted (and we now have plenty of evidence that he has taken that to AFL level). And that bursting through traffic, rather than backing out of traffic, is one of the things that makes Rowell so damaging and exciting to watch. Maybe Phillips' raw possession numbers stack up well against Rowell at the same age but they seem to go about things in a different way.

I think Phillips will become a good AFL player, possibly a very good player. He's probably the lowest risk of the top handful of draft candidates. I'm not convinced that he'll be able to translate that back-out-the-back style to AFL level. He'll find there's far less space and time. And while he reminds me a little of Tom Mitchell, there's nothing on that highlights reel to suggest he has Tom's ability to dig the ball out from the bottom of a pack and fire off an instant, smart handball.

I might be more enthusiastic about us drafting him if we didn't also have Campbell and Gulden lined up. I'm not convinced he offers anything clearly different to them.