2020 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[Thunder Shaker]

I am a bit sceptical of all these > 200 cm players. I am unsure if they can play the entire season without a problem. Given Thilthorpe at 18 years of age already has groin issues, it worries me a lot.

The tallest players 195 cm or taller as listed in Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: December update which covers 30 players:

N. Cox 200 cm
D. Grainger-Barras 195 cm
L. McDonald 196 cm
Z. Reid 202 cm
R. Thilthorpe 201 cm
J. Ugle-Hagan 195 cm

[707]

Did a forensic count of our lists, we have just 33 on the senior list, 36 is the minimum which is what I suspect we'll go with as we are carrying peak Buddy contract in 2021. In alphabetical order
Armartey, Bell, Blakey, Brand, Clarke, Cunningham, Dawson, Florent, Franklin, Gould (10)
Haywood, Heeney, Hewett, JPK, Ling, Lloyd, McCartin, McInerney, Melican, Mills (20)
Naismith, COR, Papley, Parker, Rampe, Reid, Rowbottom, Sinclair, Stephens, L Taylor (30)
Warner, Hickey, Ronke who has apparently been given a contract but not yet announced (33)

So three at the ND makes 36

We can then have up to six Cat A (Gray, Fox, McLean who has apparently been given a contract but not yet announced (3), and two Cat B rookies confirmed as Wicks & O'Connor)

So we have three vacant rookie places which I reckon we'll use as $80k per rookie is not counted in the cap. Paddy McCartin a big possibility as one, almost certainly one with pick 3 in the Rookie Draft, particularly given the ND will end around pick 50. Leaves one free for the Mid Season Draft where I believe we'll once again have pick 3?

Assuming E Taylor has been taken off our lists as on the AFL website he is noted as "delisted"

[bloodspirit]

The club has now posted a review of 2017 draft by Kin Beatson. There are a couple of interesting tidbits:

* looks like McCartin is likely to settle down back for the forseeable future (not a surprise, but the confirmation is big news in my view)

* Ling and Amartey have been held back by injuries - no news there. It seems we are persisting with Amartey because we believe "we haven't seen him anywhere near his best" on account of his repeated injuries. For instance he is apparently pretty much quickest in the club over 20 m (!) and we haven't seen him put this into action on the field. Despite this, it seems that he isn't far from the exit door if he doesn't start performing. Ling seems a little bit further from the exit but is in a similar situation in that he now needs to stay healthy and start performing.

It's great to learn that McCartin will settle down back - he seems destined to be a great success in that position and together with Gould and Melican will form our future backline talls (as well as forming a part of our present with Rampe and Melican or Brand).

However, that means that our forward line remains our glaring weakness going forward. This means I am cooling on DGB, even if he may be versatile enough to go forward - unless we are really confident in his ability in this regard. Primarily he is a defender and I don't think we need to spend our pick 3 on defender particularly given our current strength - never mind the additional point well made by liz that it's not that hard to find KPDs and you don't generally spend pick 3 to get one. So perhaps I'm reverting to my earlier thought that we take whoever remains of LM/RT/EH - probably in that order.

Probably our recruiters have a fairly sophisticated way of trying to adjust for the lack of exposed form of Victorian prospects compared to the boost that SA & WA players are getting because they have been seen in action. I'll still be a little nervous if we select someone outside of the so called 'Fab 5'.

[Markwebbos]

The club has now posted a review of 2017 draft by Kin Beatson. There are a couple of interesting tidbits:

* looks like McCartin is likely to settle down back for the forseeable future (not a surprise, but the confirmation is big news in my view)

* Ling and Amartey have been held back by injuries - no news there. It seems we are persisting with Amartey because we believe "we haven't seen him anywhere near his best" on account of his repeated injuries. For instance he is apparently pretty much quickest in the club over 20 m (!) and we haven't seen him put this into action on the field. Despite this, it seems that he isn't far from the exit door if he doesn't start performing. Ling seems a little bit further from the exit but is in a similar situation in that he now needs to stay healthy and start performing.

It's great to learn that McCartin will settle down back - he seems destined to be a great success in that position and together with Gould and Melican will form our future backline talls (as well as forming a part of our present with Rampe and Melican or Brand).

However, that means that our forward line remains our glaring weakness going forward. This means I am cooling on DGB, even if he may be versatile enough to go forward - unless we are really confident in his ability in this regard. Primarily he is a defender and I don't think we need to spend our pick 3 on defender particularly given our current strength - never mind the additional point well made by liz that it's not that hard to find KPDs and you don't generally spend pick 3 to get one. So perhaps I'm reverting to my earlier thought that we take whoever remains of LM/RT/EH - probably in that order.

Probably our recruiters have a fairly sophisticated way of trying to adjust for the lack of exposed form of Victorian prospects compared to the boost that SA & WA players are getting because they have been seen in action. I'll still be a little nervous if we select someone outside of the so called 'Fab 5'.

I'm very happy to hear about McCartin staying back.
I wonder if there are any of our taller backs they'll try and develop as forwards?

[Syd76]

Hamish Ogilvie the Adelaide recruiting manager was interviewed on SEN today. He reiterated everyone thinking that the top 5 stand out (JUH,EH,RT, DGB & LMC). He also added Phillips to that mix.

I suspect that EH will go to North (if Adelaide pick LMc).

He wasn't effusive of Thilthorpe... so it may come down to the effective choice for Sydney (ignoring JUH) of DGB vs RT. In this case I'd go with DGB (who Peter Sumich labelled "a bit spacy" - he says he still works in Bunnings in the plumbing section and likes to fix up cars). Agree with the notion that RT groins are a concern for someone so young....

[bloodspirit]

I'm really struggling with the RT v DGB thing. I'll be so much happier if Logan McDonald is available - that's just straightforward and easy I reckon. I'm more attracted to DGB as a player including his clear role capability and the lack of injury issues and, for mine, he presents better in interview - but RT seems a better fit for our needs. Both of them are not rated right at the top by all draft pundits in the same way that LM, EH, JUH & WP are universally viewed as top 6. However, I'm trying to let myself be persuaded by the people who are really hyped by what RT brings to the table that he will be a fantastic outcome for us. The talk certainly seems to be that we are not considering RT and we are leaning to DGB but who knows what faith you can place on that.

Interested to see Cal Twomey's first phantom draft drop (at last) tonight. I don't think Cal is necessarily the best judge of a player's worth - but he has an excellent record of picking the draft order at the top end of the draft and I do rate him in that regard (although I don't need to because his record speaks for itself).

[waswan]

FWIW Gary, hated by RWO, Buckenara has his top 50 out.

He's got Phillips at 13!

Confirmed, Hawks to select Phillips...

JUH aside, I believe we rate LMc ahead of DGB.
We will take DGB if LMc is gone

JUH
RT
EH
LMc
Phillips

Reckon if we dont get DGB, he could slip to GC or Essendon

[Markwebbos]

Confirmed, Hawks to select Phillips...

JUH aside, I believe we rate LMc ahead of DGB.
We will take DGB if LMc is gone

JUH
RT
EH
LMc
Phillips

Reckon if we dont get DGB, he could slip to GC or Essendon

If we are considering taking DGB at our first pick, surely this means we see him as a potential KPF?
Or do you think we'll look to plug holes with later picks in this draft, 2021 or via trade?
Groins aside, I thought RT looked pretty agile for 200cm and 100kg

[bloodspirit]

Reckon if we dont get DGB, he could slip to GC or Essendon

If it's Gold Coast, that won't be a slip - that will be the most likely outcome. It's only if he makes it past the top 6 that it could be considered a slide in my opinion and then it depends on how much further he slides.

[Captain]

If it's Gold Coast, that won't be a slip - that will be the most likely outcome. It's only if he makes it past the top 6 that it could be considered a slide in my opinion and then it depends on how much further he slides.

I think he is most suited to the Gold Coast.

[Thunder Shaker]

Interested to see Cal Twomey's first phantom draft drop (at last) tonight. I don't think Cal is necessarily the best judge of a player's worth - but he has an excellent record of picking the draft order at the top end of the draft and I do rate him in that regard (although I don't need to because his record speaks for itself).

Twomey's phantom draft has just dropped.

Cal Twomey's 2020 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, your club's whispers
Has us taking DGB at 4 (and LMcD slipping to Hawthorn at 5), Sydney matching a bid on Campbell at 9, and Gulden at 22.

[bloodspirit]

Twomey's phantom draft has just dropped.

Cal Twomey's 2020 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, your club's whispers
Has us taking DGB at 4 (and LMcD slipping to Hawthorn at 5), Sydney matching a bid on Campbell at 9, and Gulden at 22.

I can't believe we would let Logan slide past us! He would be our dream pick, wouldn't he? Have I been believing too much of what I have been reading? I will be disappointed if this happens. DGB may be fantastic but we need a KPF much more than we need a KPD. I hope we have successfully bluffed everyone about DGB.

I wonder if there's any chance Tasmanian Jackson Callow could be available by the time our later pick comes around? I suspect we prefer to draft only 3 (as per 707's clear analysis) but he's a KPF that we might want to give a go in the unlikely event he were still available. Chris Doerre rates him just outside the first round (well ahead of Nik Cox and Zach Reid).

Speaking of Chris Doerre - he has posted a video explaining his top 75 draft 'power rankings': https://twitter.com/ChrisDoerreESPN/status/1335464134725398535?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1335464134725398535%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=.

[dejavoodoo44]

I can't believe we would let Logan slide past us! He would be our dream pick, wouldn't he? Have I been believing too much of what I have been reading? I will be disappointed if this happens. DGB may be fantastic but we need a KPF much more than we need a KPD. I hope we have successfully bluffed everyone about DGB.

I wonder if there's any chance Tasmanian Jackson Callow could be available by the time our later pick comes around? I suspect we prefer to draft only 3 (as per 707's clear analysis) but he's a KPF that we might want to give a go in the unlikely event he were still available. Chris Doerre rates him just outside the first round (well ahead of Nik Cox and Zach Reid).

Speaking of Chris Doerre - he has posted a video explaining his top 75 draft 'power rankings': https://twitter.com/ChrisDoerreESPN/status/1335464134725398535?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1335464134725398535%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=.

Yes, you wouldn't be the only one surprised, if we let McDonald through to Hawthorn.

[Markwebbos]

I can't believe we would let Logan slide past us! He would be our dream pick, wouldn't he? Have I been believing too much of what I have been reading? I will be disappointed if this happens. DGB may be fantastic but we need a KPF much more than we need a KPD. I hope we have successfully bluffed everyone about DGB.

I wonder if there's any chance Tasmanian Jackson Callow could be available by the time our later pick comes around? I suspect we prefer to draft only 3 (as per 707's clear analysis) but he's a KPF that we might want to give a go in the unlikely event he were still available. Chris Doerre rates him just outside the first round (well ahead of Nik Cox and Zach Reid).

Speaking of Chris Doerre - he has posted a video explaining his top 75 draft 'power rankings': https://twitter.com/ChrisDoerreESPN/status/1335464134725398535?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1335464134725398535%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=.

The DGB v LMcD debate is an interesting one. The only reason people (me included) would lean toward Logan is because he's seen as a forward and Denver as a back. However DGB may be the better player. He's certainly quicker and won their head to head duel in the WAFL. I wonder how much our recruiters look at either player as "back" or "forward", but rather look in terms of attributes each position requires: speed, size, aggression, marking ability, bodywork etc and on that basis may see DGB as the better prospect? He's certainly the skinnier of the two, so may also have more upside.

Anyway, all will have been revealed by this time tomorrow!

[MattW]

The club has now posted a review of 2017 draft by Kin Beatson. There are a couple of interesting tidbits:

* looks like McCartin is likely to settle down back for the forseeable future (not a surprise, but the confirmation is big news in my view)

* Ling and Amartey have been held back by injuries - no news there. It seems we are persisting with Amartey because we believe "we haven't seen him anywhere near his best" on account of his repeated injuries. For instance he is apparently pretty much quickest in the club over 20 m (!) and we haven't seen him put this into action on the field. Despite this, it seems that he isn't far from the exit door if he doesn't start performing. Ling seems a little bit further from the exit but is in a similar situation in that he now needs to stay healthy and start performing.

It's great to learn that McCartin will settle down back - he seems destined to be a great success in that position and together with Gould and Melican will form our future backline talls (as well as forming a part of our present with Rampe and Melican or Brand).

However, that means that our forward line remains our glaring weakness going forward. This means I am cooling on DGB, even if he may be versatile enough to go forward - unless we are really confident in his ability in this regard. Primarily he is a defender and I don't think we need to spend our pick 3 on defender particularly given our current strength - never mind the additional point well made by liz that it's not that hard to find KPDs and you don't generally spend pick 3 to get one. So perhaps I'm reverting to my earlier thought that we take whoever remains of LM/RT/EH - probably in that order.

Probably our recruiters have a fairly sophisticated way of trying to adjust for the lack of exposed form of Victorian prospects compared to the boost that SA & WA players are getting because they have been seen in action. I'll still be a little nervous if we select someone outside of the so called 'Fab 5'.

I thought there was a bit of news re Ling, which is that he brought the toe injury to the club. I think we'd understood that to have been picked up in training.