Covid 19 and footy - season (suspended) now resumed

[royboy42]

Considering this game still stops and removes the player if he shows a trace of blood, I'd be astonished if they took the tiniest risk.

And equally astonished if we saw any footy before September at the earliest. My tip is no play this season.

[barry]

Considering this game still stops and removes the player if he shows a trace of blood, I'd be astonished if they took the tiniest risk.

And equally astonished if we saw any footy before September at the earliest. My tip is no play this season.

I hope you are wrong, and its a bit early to call the season over at the start of April.

Interestingly, I was reading about Spanish flu (1918/19) today. And Covid-19 and spanish flu have quite a few similarities. a) a mortality rate of 2.5%. b) spread around the globe very quickly.
One big difference was that you could be dead in a few hours with spanish flu.
Imagine a game where an injury of death was possible!

[Mel_C]

There is at least one non-cricket ground in each state to extend the season:
QLD: Carrara.
NSW: Spotless (assuming big bash doesnt start until december or later)
Victoria: Marvel, and maybe Princess Park if needed.
WA: Cricket / AFL can split between Optus and Waca.
SA: This is the only one I cant think of an alternative. May need to upgrade a suburban ground.

I thought that Football Park still existed in SA but I just read that it was demolished. Maybe one of the SANFL grounds could be an option.

[Odysseus]

I hope you are wrong, and its a bit early to call the season over at the start of April.

Interestingly, I was reading about Spanish flu (1918/19) today. And Covid-19 and spanish flu have quite a few similarities. a) a mortality rate of 2.5%. b) spread around the globe very quickly.
One big difference was that you could be dead in a few hours with spanish flu.
Imagine a game where an injury of death was possible!

I'm not sure about the mortality rate of 2.5%, Barry. I've seen the total number of deaths to Spanish flu given as anywhere from 50 to 100 million; but the other day I saw the number 20 million cited. What figure is accepted will influence the perceived mortality rate. And with CV19, the mortality rate differs from country to country, not surprisingly; another factor is the paradox that because CV19 is less lethal, a person may acquire it but not have symptoms severe enough for it to be counted; and some countries aren't too good at counting, anyway. And a further interesting point - to me, anyway! - is that the speed with which SF could kill meant that it was much easier to track community transmission.

A difference is that the Spanish flu affected young people in the prime of their lives rather than older people; some account for this with the idea that older people had encountered a similar but not identical virus, but there's also the idea that the SF over-stimulated the body's immune system, and it was this rather than the virus itself that killed people. So younger people with better immune systems were actually worse off than more elderly people - that's the theory, at any rate. The story of how the SF genetic make-up was discovered is quite fascinating; if other RWO-ers are interested, for a quick summary see the Wikipedia entry on Johan Hultin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johan_Hultin or in more detail here https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...918-virus.html.

And then, just as now, it wasn't just the deaths they were worried about:
It almost stopped the works.jpg

[goswannies]

I thought that Football Park still existed in SA but I just read that it was demolished. Maybe one of the SANFL grounds could be an option.

The ground is still there (the Crows train(ed) there a bit. But all the grandstands are gone. At least this was the case last time I looked. I live quite close to it. But it’s unsuitable for much. many of the SANFL grounds are ok (especially if there are no crowds).

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And then, just as now, it wasn't just the deaths they were worried about:
[ATTACH]2261[/ATTACH]

The year we won our second premiership? Get the 2020 started!

[KSAS]

We may well get further football this year, but I reckon there is buckley's chance any games will have a crowd, unless it runs very late into the season. Having big crowds at venues will be the last step taken I reckon.

I heard recently about a AFL fan survey which 72% responded they will NOT attend games till a vaccine was made available. Don't know what the sample size of the survey.

[KTigers]

I heard recently about a AFL fan survey which 72% responded they will NOT attend games till a vaccine was made available. Don't know what the sample size of the survey.

Yes, this is the thing. Governments can relax restrictions, claim there is an antidote/vaccine/no threat/everything is ok again etc, but ultimately
people are going to vote with their feet and their wallets, assuming there is still some money left in them.

[Boddo]

I heard recently about a AFL fan survey which 72% responded they will NOT attend games till a vaccine was made available. Don't know what the sample size of the survey.

Breakdown of the survey would be interesting reading. Age demographic would be the one I’d like to look at the most. IMO people under 25 the reverse would happen with at least 72% saying they would attend a game. But for say people over the age of say 55 it could be higher than 72% not attending.

[Boddo]

Still expect the season to restart in June. You can see the language from MSM is starting to turn & the federal government has started its first small step to getting things restarted by saying children should be going back to school.

[Odysseus]

Still expect the season to restart in June. You can see the language from MSM is starting to turn & the federal government has started its first small step to getting things restarted by saying children should be going back to school.

I don't agree that the federal government's view on children preferably being at school is evidence to go by, as that's been Morrison's consistent position - it's the state leaders, eg Dan Andrews down in Victoria where I am - who are closing schools for most students.

Some weeks ago I read an article by Annabel Crabb on the tension between the federal and state government on this. She wrote about the politics regarding hospitals, and then this on the schools:

"State leaders are also much less likely to achieve social distancing from teachers' unions; it's why they are much more sympathetic to the idea of closing schools. Oh yeah — they run schools, too. They want to reduce numbers of kids at school to safeguard teachers, which is why NSW and Victoria have gone further than the Federal Government on this front."

Whether the season restarts in June, who knows? Personally, I doubt it, though our figures are looking better and it's certainly nice to hope for an early return.

[Mr Magoo]

I don't agree that the federal government's view on children preferably being at school is evidence to go by, as that's been Morrison's consistent position - it's the state leaders, eg Dan Andrews down in Victoria where I am - who are closing schools for most students.

Some weeks ago I read an article by Annabel Crabb on the tension between the federal and state government on this. She wrote about the politics regarding hospitals, and then this on the schools:

"State leaders are also much less likely to achieve social distancing from teachers' unions; it's why they are much more sympathetic to the idea of closing schools. Oh yeah — they run schools, too. They want to reduce numbers of kids at school to safeguard teachers, which is why NSW and Victoria have gone further than the Federal Government on this front."

Whether the season restarts in June, who knows? Personally, I doubt it, though our figures are looking better and it's certainly nice to hope for an early return.

Kids going back to school is a result of the medical advisers saying that there seems to be very little transmission amongst children and from children to adults and therefore it would seem to make sense to let kids back to school . I find it a little nonsensical that we are so concerned about sending teachers back amongst kids who it seems are less likely to pass on the virus but we are happy for supermarket workers to be facing other adults all day long in cirsumstances that have probably less social distancing than could be achieved at a school if the correct measures were put in place.

In fact the microcosm of the supermarket experience is probably giving sensible leaders the impetus to start opening up other business as it seems there has been very little community transmission resulting from people buying their groceries.

For the football world the difference is that there is unavoidable physical contact amongst the individuals and this still seems to be the most important measure amongst all of this.

[707]

I see Horse was advocating an extended bench for matches this year if the AFL's intention is to have shorter breaks between games.

Smart thinking, means we can play Buddy but with less game time to ease him back, also allows Stephens and Gould to get game time without sacrificing a more experienced player. I like it.

It seems like we've missed so much footy but it's only three games we've missed so far. Will Daniher be fit for our R2 clash with Essendon in Tasmania/Darwin/Woop Woop?

When will we restart? Well it's only six weeks until NRL say they're starting!

[dejavoodoo44]

I'm not sure about the mortality rate of 2.5%, Barry. I've seen the total number of deaths to Spanish flu given as anywhere from 50 to 100 million; but the other day I saw the number 20 million cited. What figure is accepted will influence the perceived mortality rate. And with CV19, the mortality rate differs from country to country, not surprisingly; another factor is the paradox that because CV19 is less lethal, a person may acquire it but not have symptoms severe enough for it to be counted; and some countries aren't too good at counting, anyway. And a further interesting point - to me, anyway! - is that the speed with which SF could kill meant that it was much easier to track community transmission.

A difference is that the Spanish flu affected young people in the prime of their lives rather than older people; some account for this with the idea that older people had encountered a similar but not identical virus, but there's also the idea that the SF over-stimulated the body's immune system, and it was this rather than the virus itself that killed people. So younger people with better immune systems were actually worse off than more elderly people - that's the theory, at any rate. The story of how the SF genetic make-up was discovered is quite fascinating; if other RWO-ers are interested, for a quick summary see the Wikipedia entry on Johan Hultin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johan_Hultin or in more detail here https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...918-virus.html.

And then, just as now, it wasn't just the deaths they were worried about:
[ATTACH]2261[/ATTACH]

Ta, I enjoyed the longer article: to the extent of it prodding my reading of a couple of papers, trying to understand how the odd mutation, that caused change to the structure of viral surface proteins, could make the virus much more deadly. I don't think I really found what I was looking for, or if it was there, I may not have comprehended it.
But still, it's an interesting thing to ponder, how small random changes in viral RNA, can lead to the death of millions.

[707]

On another thread but really outstanding letter to the members from Andrew Pridham, makes me proud to be a Swans member

[barry]

I'm not sure about the mortality rate of 2.5%, Barry. I've seen the total number of deaths to Spanish flu given as anywhere from 50 to 100 million; but the other day I saw the number 20 million cited. What figure is accepted will influence the perceived mortality rate. And with CV19, the mortality rate differs from country to country, not surprisingly; another factor is the paradox that because CV19 is less lethal, a person may acquire it but not have symptoms severe enough for it to be counted; and some countries aren't too good at counting, anyway. And a further interesting point - to me, anyway! - is that the speed with which SF could kill meant that it was much easier to track community transmission.

A difference is that the Spanish flu affected young people in the prime of their lives rather than older people; some account for this with the idea that older people had encountered a similar but not identical virus, but there's also the idea that the SF over-stimulated the body's immune system, and it was this rather than the virus itself that killed people. So younger people with better immune systems were actually worse off than more elderly people - that's the theory, at any rate. The story of how the SF genetic make-up was discovered is quite fascinating; if other RWO-ers are interested, for a quick summary see the Wikipedia entry on Johan Hultin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johan_Hultin or in more detail here https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...918-virus.html.

And then, just as now, it wasn't just the deaths they were worried about:
[ATTACH]2261[/ATTACH]

Nice poster!.

I think its widely accepted the death rate from spanish flu was around 2.5%. And because it was mutating, I think some coped it worse than others. Eg. that arctic tribe which kicked off the second wave had about 80% mortality.

Interestingly, I dont think the 1918 or 1919 VFL seasons were suspended.

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I heard recently about a AFL fan survey which 72% responded they will NOT attend games till a vaccine was made available. Don't know what the sample size of the survey.

Hope they aren't all anti-vaxer's.