2021 trading, drafting and list management: players and personnel

[bloodspirit]

Just interested to see what differences everyone saw with the strategy Carlton took on in 2020 and whether this showed potential vs the Premiers last night. Carlton lost by 3goals

They went for Saad, Williams, Fogarty etc to give them immediate run and carry and pressure experienced players

Would these players feature in the Swans 22 ?

This has been on the back of a few years of bringing on board experienced / impact players last few years to compliment their draft picks vs our picks of Thurlow, Menzel, Gray, Squizzy, Brand etc?

Not unlike the trajectory that the Saints have leaned into and moved up to 6th last year after we destroyed them the year before last round and we finished near the bottom in 2020.

New player numbers:
6. Zac Williams
8. Lachie Fogarty
16. Jack Carroll
26. Luke Parks
29. Corey Durdin
42. Adam Saad

How is our significant investment in Squizzy, Thurlow, Menzel, Gray, Brand showing up in our results vs if we invested in say two significant players like Saad and Williams ?

Its such an interesting area to review, because the conversation would be dead if we were climbing up to 10th or 8th on the table or at least on a trajectory heading North with a bit of gusto.

Maybe i'm just impatient?

Im must admit though.......Im a big believer that when you get to the airport you need to switch vehicles to get to Tahiti.......and I feel we maybe in the taxi still !

I think you're unduly pessimistic and, yes, also impatient.

We have had two seasons finishing down near the bottom of the ladder (after two decades of finals) but we have made excellent use of them. We have gotten games into our talented youth priming us for sustained success. And we capitalised on our high draft picks to pick up McDonald, Stephens, Warner, Gulden, Campbell and Gould. (Gulden and Campbell are Academy players but our low finish helped us pay for them.)

You keep looking enviously at other clubs recruiting via trade but we have chosen a different path. We have chosen to rebuild via the draft over the past 5+ years - a strategy that fit perfectly with Buddy's contract and our priority access to Academy talent. Meanwhile the clubs that have used trade that you keep looking wistfully at haven't done so much better and definitely don't look better placed for the future. A couple of years ago you kept comparing us to Hawthorn as they grabbed Mitchell, Scully, Patton, Scrimshaw, Wingard etc. You don't mention them any more. More recently you have turned to Geelong and St Kilda as clubs who have used trade to their advantage - I wonder how long this will continue.

It's not to say that these other clubs have got it wrong but we have taken a different path, that perhaps required a bit more patience, and the signs are it is going to pay dividends, possibly sooner rather than later. More importantly, not only does the path we have taken give us every chance of returning to finals, I think it gives us a better chance of actually contending for a flag because we have executed it pretty well.

Meanwhile you may also point to PAFC and Brisbane - but they have very much used the draft and then topped up, something we are now in a position to do too as we get Buddy's contract off our books this year and, especially, next year. We are now primed for success over the coming decade with excellent talent, which we can look to top up as appropriate as we zoom into contention. Based on this weekend's showing (granted only a single game) we are well placed vis-a-vis Carlton for the years ahead, and even for this year. I would take our youth over Carlton's in a heartbeat. I'll see your "Kemp, Obrien, Walsh, DeKoning, Fogarty, Dow, Stocker" and raise you a McDonald, McCartin, Rowbottom, Stephens, McInerney, Warner, Blakey, Gulden and Campbell.

Possible trade target?

Looking ahead to the topping up, the coming off seasons are the time we can look to start trading in established talent. I think the players that should be entering our focus are promising young KPPs - partly because they are hard to get and partly because they take longer to develop and it will serve us better to have some proven players to partner with McDonald and McCartin after Buddy and Rampe retire. So who should we look to? Who is gettable?

Here are some ideas:

* Noah Balta at Richmond - is out of contract this year. There could be an opportunity to make him a sufficiently attractive offer while he is still competing with Astbury and Grimes for a spot. However, with Richmond enjoying such success, them needing and wanting Balta for their future, and Balta being a Vic Metro player, not sure he will be gettable. Tom Barass might be nice but I don't see him as gettable either.

* Aaron Francis is a player I think we should take a close look at. He hasn't set the world on fire at Essendon but he may be underperforming in that club environment and could potentially bloom with a fresh start at a different club. He was highly regarded in his draft year and taken at pick 6 in the ND: 30 days to the draft: Meet marking machine Aaron Francis (afl.com.au). He comes from South Australia and sought a trade back to SA at the end of 2017 but the SA clubs weren't sufficiently interested. He has had some history with mental health issues. He has also shown glimpses of great talent - here are some highlights: BTV: The best of Francis - YouTube. So, overall, I think he may be gettable (he may not even cost the earth - although he is contracted until the end of 2022 and it would mean dealing with EFC). He is about the right age and experience profile. Francis has played 36 games and was born 10.8.97: AFL Tables - Aaron Francis - Stats - Statistics. I don't know if he is a good option, but I do think he deserves close consideration.

* A dream option would be Jack Lukosius. He turns 21 years old this year and has about 40 games under his belt: AFL Tables - Jack Lukosius - Stats - Statistics. He is contracted until the end of 2022 and can play either end of the ground. It would be a disaster for GCFC to lose him and they will fight tooth and nail to keep him - but they are going to struggle to retain all the elite talent they have on their list within the salary cap. I reckon we should be talking to his agent now about trying to get him at the end of 2022 when we'll finally have Buddy's contract entirely off our books and we could make a pretty enticing offer. Can only imagine the Crows will be doing the same.

* Another option is Jarrod Brander, currently playing for West Coast but out of contact at the end of this season. From Mildura/Wentworth and formerly a member of the GWS Academy. 195 cm, 92 kg, 22 yo. Has only played 11 games and he faces plenty of competition for a spot. He was considered the understudy to Josh Kennedy but has been overtaken by Oscar Allen and Jake Waterman. Versatile and has been training as a wingman in the hopes of getting a game. Wasn't picked this week. Might be gettable but less established/proven. Other clubs are circling too.


Of course, the best case scenario, is that we already have the future superstar KPD we need on our list and that his name is Will Gould. He has the potential. Can he realise it? We will learn more this year.

Does anyone else have any suggestions about young KPPs we might want to target?

[liz]

No chance Balta. Richmond would let pretty much any other (young) player go before him.

I suspect our presumed "war chest" once Buddy's contract is done might evaporate quite quickly. You can expect Freo to start throwing a big contract in McDonald's direction soon enough. (Maybe West Coast too, though their need for tall forwards isn't as dire, with Darling still with several years left and Allen rapidly developing into a top line player.)

And while we might be confident the go-home factor is low for players like Gulden, Campbell, Blakey, that doesn't mean other clubs won't offer them enticing offers if they keep going the way they've started. Buddy may be the main reason for our tight salary cap, but we also had to start paying big dollars to players like Mills and Heeney after their initial contracts were over because North started waving their cheque book around.

[bloodspirit]

I agree that a lot of the 'space' created by Buddy's salary vacating our cap will be absorbed quickly by contracts for current players. Despite this, surely there will be opportunities to snaffle someone more established too? Especially if we can present ourselves as on the verge of sustained success and make ourselves a destination club once more. We need some KPP company for McDonald and McCartin and drafting them over the next couple of drafts may be too slow.

[KSAS]

No chance Balta. Richmond would let pretty much any other (young) player go before him.

I suspect our presumed "war chest" once Buddy's contract is done might evaporate quite quickly. You can expect Freo to start throwing a big contract in McDonald's direction soon enough. (Maybe West Coast too, though their need for tall forwards isn't as dire, with Darling still with several years left and Allen rapidly developing into a top line player.)

And while we might be confident the go-home factor is low for players like Gulden, Campbell, Blakey, that doesn't mean other clubs won't offer them enticing offers if they keep going the way they've started. Buddy may be the main reason for our tight salary cap, but we also had to start paying big dollars to players like Mills and Heeney after their initial contracts were over because North started waving their cheque book around.

+1 I think the club's main priority will be to retain our renowned young talent. We have a growing list of them! Our weakest area is in the Ruck where we may recruit a reputable ruckman post Hickey/Sinkers/Naismith who could all finish up with Buddy in 2 years.

Even then can't see us throwing big $$$$ to secure one as any hypothetical "War Chest" will be needed to re-sign McDonald, Gulden & Campbell who's current contracts will expire then as well. Hoping we'll be a destination club by then which will help to lure a decent Ruckman without costing us the earth.

[Ludwig]

It's a shame about Noah Balta, as some might remember that along with Ed Richards, Balta was one of my 2 top picks for the 2017 draft. But okay, let's go Matt Ling.

It's almost detrimental for us to acquire a non-KPP this year. There's no place for them. The house is full and we will struggle to get the games into players that deserve games. As I said last year, the main problem will be retention of our midfield brigade.

I would look to add up to 3 KPPs through the draft this year. One might be a development ruckman, perhaps through the rookie draft or academy.

Perhaps Paddy McCartin will prove a worthy selection in the midseason draft. This might well seal up the forward line for a while. If not Paddy, let's go with the best KPP available.

In the ND at year end, we should target a KPP, perhaps a key defender. We have enough numbers in the KPD role, but the quality is uncertain. I feel that Melican will develop into a good enough defender to hold down the FB position, but grant that he hasn't yet shown the desired consistency and composure, but he's not as far off as some might think.

We still have Brand, Gould and O'Connor to fill the ranks. I have high hopes for Gould and look forward to the development of O'Connor, as the early reports have been positive.

If there's a year to trade off picks or players into 2022, this could be it. We almost need to hit the pause button on player acquisition and wait and see how the current crop works out.

It's a fluid situation and opinions are sure to change during the course of the year as reality catches up to projections.

[bloodspirit]

Maybe we'll need to think about trading out someone who is surplus to requirements to be able to get what we need by way of tall players (KPPs & ruck). Any suggestions for who should be offered up? Has to be someone with trade currency to make it worth while. I suppose, after his omission from the first 22 on the weekend, Hayward is one name that comes to mind. We can't afford to trade too many of our less young players out because we need their experience. Conversely the youngest players we either want to keep or they have less trade value. It's tricky.

[bloodspirit]

Another approach might be to draft in KPP talent and then get stop-gaps towards the end of their careers a la Hickey (or a la Geelong) to fill the KPP roles (if necessary) while the younger players develop to AFL standard.

[liz]

Another approach might be to draft in KPP talent and then get stop-gaps towards the end of their careers a la Hickey (or a la Geelong) to fill the KPP roles (if necessary) while the younger players develop to AFL standard.

Or just draft players who can come in and perform straight away. Helps when you have pick 4, I guess, and when another club overlooks the tall forward for a small midfielder.

But McCartin was making some contribution right from his first season. As was AJ.

[bloodspirit]

Or just draft players who can come in and perform straight away. Helps when you have pick 4, I guess, and when another club overlooks the tall forward for a small midfielder.

But McCartin was making some contribution right from his first season. As was AJ.

Doesn't happen too often with KPPs - but, yes, that'd be nice.

Also, I'm overlooking Paddy McCartin and the mid-season draft. Could be possibilities there.

[Auntie.Gerald]

"Unduly pessimistic" ?

Its just my opinion.....but I have always enjoyed and felt it is healthy to challenge our pathway to success vs other clubs. I think this is a positive not a negative.

For me success is staying in and around the top8 then going long when you think u have a chance for the top4. Beyond that you don't have a lot of control re guaranteeing a premiership but we do know statistically being top4 gives great chance vs being outside the top4.

Collingwood
Geelong
The Dogs
West Coast
Now Saints on the rise with Port and Brisbane

Hawks at this stage are no different to us statistically so dont think that doesn't make sense your point re the Hawks? It is too early to say isnt it? Remarkable game on the wknd by them and remarkable game by us. Wasn't it?

I think the ability to stay around top8 top4 and maintain smart trading like Geelong is seriously an amazing effort and very astute. It astounds me actually and further leans me in the direction of us being a little stranded up here to attract talent via trades? That concerns me given we spent alot of money on players coming from interstate with not much reward last few years. Opportunity cost ?

I think there are too many swans supporters that beat down the pathways of other clubs while we are sitting down the bottom of the table. I think that is unfair personally.

There has never been an argument nor pessimism within me re "potential".......my concern is inflating the upside while sitting very low on the table.

I seriously hope that changes this season knocking right on the door of top8 top6 like alot of the clubs above have been able to maintain the rage..

I think we if our recruitment is bang on we should be able to do a Saint Kilda 2020 this season ........ don't you BS ?

Or is our recruitment strategy not similar to some of the above teams.

[Markwebbos]

If you define success as “staying in and around the top8”, then by (your) definition, any team that falls down the ladder as we’ve done is a failure.

However if you define it as winning premierships, it’s far from clear that staying in and around the top8 is the way to do it.

by my reckoning every premier for the last ten years drafted key players during a period when they were not “in and around the top8”

The proof of that pudding will be in the eating ...

I’m very interested to see how St Kilda and Geelong in particular go over the next 2-3 years

[Ludwig]

Or is our recruitment strategy not similar to some of the above teams.

Our recruitment strategy had to be different than many other clubs. With the big contracts for Franklin and Tippett, plus a lot of up and coming star players, we didn't have the cap space to compete in the trade market. And it's worked out for the best. We had 8 players just from just the last 3 drafts playing on Saturday, and still have likely long term players Stephens, Mcinerney and Gould yet to come into the side. That's half a team just from the past 3 drafts. That's what makes the future look so bright.

Once the team settles in, then we can look to the trade market to fill a gap, like PA did acquiring Aliir. I don't see this year being the right time. Perhaps after next year when Franklin and Kennedy are likely to be off the books.

[mcs]

Our recruitment strategy had to be different than many other clubs. With the big contracts for Franklin and Tippett, plus a lot of up and coming star players, we didn't have the cap space to compete in the trade market. And it's worked out for the best. We had 8 players just from just the last 3 drafts playing on Saturday, and still have likely long term players Stephens, Mcinerney and Gould yet to come into the side. That's half a team just from the past 3 drafts. That's what makes the future look so bright.

Once the team settles in, then we can look to the trade market to fill a gap, like PA did acquiring Aliir. I don't see this year being the right time. Perhaps after next year when Franklin and Kennedy are likely to be off the books.

Yep me either - next year looks much more obvious as a potential point, but they may even choose to wait another year again - by that point we should clearly know where the pertinent gaps are (apart from the obvious medium term issue in the ruck - Hickey is only going to give us 3 or 4 years in there most likely), and also a better idea of where we stand with our stock of younger players just starting out now.

[tlock]

Errol Gulden looks like the biggest steal of the draft

[Bangalore Swans]

It’s around this time of the year that discussion on whom on the Swans list becomes free agents begins at the end of the season.

I think the following players need to force their way into the senior team and make strong contributions otherwise they will become free agents:

Lewis Taylor
Ben Ronke
Robbie Fox
Sam Gray
Colin O’Riodan
Sam Naismith