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Thanks, Bexl. That's interesting. I knew our remaining fixture was relatively soft but certainly didn't know that about Richmond. Puts their slow start to the year (with a lot of injuries) into some context too.
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All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)
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There are two reasons for that.
1. We got an easier fixture due to last year's bottom-six finish. We play only one of last year's top-six sides twice (St Kilda). We play two of last year's middle sides (7th to 12th) twice (GWS and Fremantle) and two of last year's other bottom six sides twice (Essendon and Gold Coast). These sides are all currently (at round 9) bunched in the middle of the ladder (GWS 9th, Fremantle 10th, St Kilda 11th, Essendon 12th and Gold Coast 14th).
If we make the finals this year, we will get a harder fixture next year.
2. We have already played 4 out of 7 of the current top 8 sides and relatively few of the other sides.
Teams we have played:
Current top 8: Brisbane Lions (A) W, Geelong (H) W, Melbourne (A) L, Richmond (A) W
9th to 11th: GWS Giants (H) L
12th to 15th: Adelaide (H) W, Essendon (H) W, Gold Coast Suns (A) L
16th to 18th: Collingwood (H) W
Teams we have yet to play:
Current top 8: Port Adelaide (A), West Coast Eagles (H), Western Bulldogs (A).
9th to 11th: Fremantle (H, A), GWS Giants (A), St Kilda (H, A).
12th to 15th: Carlton (H), Essendon (A), Gold Coast Suns (H).
16th to 18th: Hawthorn (H), North Melbourne (A).
On form, we are likely to lose to Port Adelaide and Western Bulldogs and should defeat West Coast at the SCG (they have only won at the SCG three times, see below). We should defeat Hawthorn and North Melbourne, and the remaining eight games against middle sides should on average produce six or more wins if we're good enough. I'm expecting we will have 14 wins this year.
West Coast's three wins at the SCG:
Round 9, 1999, 13 points: They were 1st/16 (7-1) and we were 11th/16 (4-4).
Round 11, 1993, 57 points: They were 3rd/15 (6-3) and we were last (0-9). (This game came towards the end of a 26-game losing streak where we hadn't won a game for over a year.)
Round 18, 1990, 15 points: They were 3rd/14 (12-5) and we were 13th/14 (3-12)."Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi finalComment
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All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)Comment
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In terms of the make up of the top 8 (which most people are suggesting will remain unchanged), I think the most likely change would be for the Giants to come in at the expense of West Coast. Which makes their match this weekend critical! The reason I think this is because West Coast have had a softer draw and still have more of the top teams to face. In West Coast's favour: (a) they are two wins and percentage ahead of the Giants; and (b) they get to face all of Richmond, Bulldogs and Richmond at Optus oval where their record is much stronger. You'd still back West Coast to make the 8 ahead of GWS, but that's the change I think is most likely if there is going to be one.All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)Comment
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Fox have published their power rankings and placed us (fairly in my view) at 8: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-power-rankings-after-round-9-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-ladder-top-eight-predictions/news-story/b8c9adba44979440fe3bec143a478060.
Their comment says: "without [Hickey], we don’t think Sydney would be playing finals this year. With him, they probably will, since they’re two games and percentage clear of the chasing pack. It’s hard to see them winning the flag - the Swans don’t quite have the upside of the other top eight teams - but they’re in the hunt at least."
I don't agree that we don't have upside. It's more that we're young and we're not reliable and many of our players have not yet reached their prime. Upside is what we do have.All opinions are not equal. Some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated, and well supported in logic and argument than others. -Douglas Adams, author (11 Mar 1952-2001)Comment
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Agree. We have enormous upside, perhaps just not this year! Max Laughton is not the greatest Swans fan and has been openly critical of us for years. Of course, this year, he has changed his tune somewhat. But I do get a sense that he (along with many other Vic journos) are waiting for the wheels to fall off. So I tend to ignore them.
I did my ladder predictor today. With the natural bias of course. Had us losing only 2 more for the year, finishing in fourth, with the Dogs at 1st.
Of course, that means we need to beat Freo away (tough), Ess away (tough), Giants away (really tough), Eagles at home (so-so), and the Saints twice (so-so). I think we are likely to lose both Dogs and Power, both away.
IF (and its a big IF) we were to finish in the top 4, we could still spring an upset GF appearance. I was very encouraged by our performance against Melbourne at the G. It was not our best game, and yet we held our own. The same place we smashed Richmond. The same place we would need to show our stuff at the pointy end of the season.
I still realistically believe finals are now a pass mark, less is a disappointment. We just need 7 wins from 13 games. And a single finals victory would be an enormous learning experience for the young core of the team.
But I also believe this year is still a possibility. I dare to believe 2012 can happen again
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"You get the feeling that like Monty Python's Black Knight, the Swans would regard amputation as merely a flesh wound."Comment
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I had GWS as the team currently outside the 8 most likely to force their way in (with the hot-and-cold St Kilda the only other realistic chance). But losing Greene for the next four weeks or so will make things a lot harder for the Giants.Comment
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Pencilling in losses for Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide is realistic.
We should beat the Eagles at home. West Coast has never defeated Sydney at the SCG when Sydney was in the top half of the ladder. West Coast's away record against Sydney during the home and away season is a 19% win rate, their worst away win rate against any side in the competition. By contrast, their away record against GWS is 80%, their best record against current sides.
We play eight games against sides in the middle of the ladder (9th to 15th). Assessing them all as wins is optimistic: we've already lost to GWS and Gold Coast. I expect six wins out of eight games, though as few as four wins out of eight games will be good enough for finals if we defeat the right sides."Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi finalComment
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There is some upside:
- Reid and Melican will come back within the next 6 weeks to add strength to the spine.
- Guldon and Campbell will push for senior selection in 8 weeks.
- Franklin will get more form the more he plays.
- Blakey has a break out game coming up.
- J-Mac and Chad will continue to trend up.
- Top 5 picks McDonald and Stephens will make some strong senior appearances in the next little while.
As long as no major injuries, the upside is huge.Last edited by Bangalore Swans; 19 May 2021, 11:58 AM.Comment
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