2022 List management, trading, drafting

[bloodspirit]

We lost by only 1 point to the Pies before the GF this season

We have lost Kennedy for 2023 but brought in Francis via a trade. The Pies have traded in some serious fire power in comparison but also lost two good players. One of them if he can recover well from a knee reconstruction is elite.

At the Pies

Who arrived: Tom Mitchell, Dan McStay, Bobby Hill, Billy Frampton

Who left: Brodie Grundy, Oliver Henry

Couldn't help but think the Pies have advanced considerably via their trades and are arguably just as ready as we are if not more so to take on the top4 in 2023.

But our list is better, and wouldn't have been improved by the same trade ins. I will back us to finish in front of Collingwood again this season despite barely beating them last season and them supposedly improving their team more through their trading.

I mean no disrespect AG but I feel you are lured in by the 'shiny new toys' that are traded-in players rather than seeing the value of the players we already have. It was the same with Hawks and Geelong in their trade seasons past (and, to be fair, that has worked out for Geelong).

I am confident in our ability to improve without significant changes to our list, even while other teams also improve, including via trade.

My concerns are probably more related to the decline of some of our champions (Buddy, Rampe etc.) than because we didn't trade in players.

And, FWIW, I think Francis is a good trade-in who may turnout to be a Jackson Thurlow or a Paddy McCartin - but either way we haven't paid much for him.

[Auntie.Gerald]

BS I see it a little differently and I am certainly not fixated on trades. I fundamentally don't believe in a "mono" approach to building a list. There are just too many levers that are critical to build a list to be stuck on one hence not glued to trades as the only answer.

I like to see teams absolutely leverage every access point to building their list via a "web" approach to success. The concern I have championed for a few seasons now is my worry we have not been using trades significantly as part of list improvement while we are in a window.

Our window is genuine.....our list in 2022 still had Bud and Kennedy heading into rd1 and we showed enough to make the top 8 the season before in 2021. So yes we were rightfully on the edge or in a window for 2022 season. We have seen Geelong, Brisbane and the Pies respond accordingly to boosting their best 22 while in a window themselves.

A web approach to list management and maximising all areas of improving your list is not in alignment with chasing shiny objects in the pacific ocean like a barracuda.

I feel we can always question any aspect of our recruitment. I mean there really isnt an argument about 2022 because Geelong showed the way in the end and that their heavier weighting to trades helped significantly to make their best 22 be able to go all season long right to GF day. A squad deliberately designed to be a GF day combative deployment.

Geelong has been quite masterful in the list build via a healthy portion of trades and has been even more aggressive on this again in 2022 despite their current success. For me that is an alarm bell.

The Pies, like us , achieved great reward for a blend of youth coming into 2022 and equally very nice coaching adjustments that totally suited both young skilful teams......but the Pies have aggressively jumped again on trades to compliment their equally exciting youthful squad. For me that is another alarm bell.

I don't think anyone on the forum has said the sky is falling in and that is because we do have a healthy exciting list. I didn't have a go at our mighty Swans after the grandfinal because I thought we did very very well to get to the GF with the squad we had.

Could our squad have been better via a portion of our squad built via trades? YES..... and we may look back on Roberts, Gus and or Konstanty and say wow that was some serious draft picks / currency for trades. Or maybe these important draft picks / players will bolt right in to the best 22 over the next season or two and give us a rare Richmond like era opportunity?

I think it is healthy to compare our strategy and differences vs teams like Geelong, Collingwood and the Bears who have done quite well in getting alot of value from their trades..All 3 of these strong teams are all on paper looking significantly stronger for 2023 via their trades.

And equally as we all know some teams have traded badly in the short term like the Saints and Hawks etc

Yet I have also been very fair minded re the Swans and trading....... in that I feel it is generally much harder for us to trade like a Geelong or the Pies where they have access to nearby players of note that plug holes and roles and strengthen immediately their best 22 while in a window.

Brisbane probably the outlier in this regard in that they have attracted strong traded players and are not in an AFL stronghold.

I mean Jack Gunston and Josh Dunkley would look pretty good in the Swans best 22 wouldn't they? I'm sure Gunston could add a few more goals to his 430 plus career tally.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

We lost by only 1 point to the Pies before the GF this season

We have lost Kennedy for 2023 but brought in Francis via a trade. The Pies have traded in some serious fire power in comparison but also lost two good players. One of them if he can recover well from a knee reconstruction is elite.

At the Pies

Who arrived: Tom Mitchell, Dan McStay, Bobby Hill, Billy Frampton

Who left: Brodie Grundy, Oliver Henry

Couldn't help but think the Pies have advanced considerably via their trades and are arguably just as ready as we are if not more so to take on the top4 in 2023.

You probably meant to write we won the prelim against Collingwood by 1 point. As to the rest of your post, they have indeed been very active, but I wonder how much those 4 players will really advance their cause. They all have considerable question marks in my mind - which one (if any) of the new Magpies would you have wanted for us ? Or more broadly which of the players from any club that moved would you want?
You mentioned a 31 year old Gunston as being able to add some goals, I'm an admirer of his but who would he squeeze out? The 24 year old Hayward, and the 21 (in April) Logan Mc are the most likely - but I wouldn't swap.

So yes we have been less active trade wise than many others, but the Buddy mega salary is probably still effecting us. He is now on significantly smaller coin now, but the possibility remains that other players who will have had their salaries constrained (or backended) during the Buddy contract - should now be getting better paid.
The other factor is that the Swans may be saving up salary cap space for someone special, someone that exactly fits a need (see next post)

[Ruck'n'Roll]

AG and BS's discussion raises a good point.
Who in the below grand final team do we not believe are up to it and therefore needs to be replaced from OUTSIDE the club?

Ollie Florent Tom McCartin Dane Rampe
Nick Blakey Paddy McCartin Jake Lloyd
Callum Mills Tom Hickey Justin McInerney
Isaac Heeney Sam Reid Will Hayward
Tom Papley Lance Franklin Errol Gulden
Chad Warner. James Rowbottom Luke Parker

Robbie Fox Dylan Stephens
Ryan Clarke. Hayden McLean

[lwjoyner]

when will we know supp list to main list changes. once upon a time yhe swans web page split them

[Goal Sneak]

So many variables to consider when making comparisons based "on paper"

Perhaps a couple of Collingwood's more prominent players enter a period of poor form? Maybe they get two or three long term injuries to key players on top of that? The club could be embroiled in some sort of scandal which turns them into a basket case!

If the Swans get some good opportunities to bring in some high end talent that suits our requirements then that would be great. I'm confident they're looking at all the options and will have both short and long term strategies when it comes to recruitment. I like that the club think independently to others and have an approach that's heavily character driven. I think of it as a broader, more refined "no dickhead policy".

The Swans seem secure in their minds of where they sit on and off the field. We have plenty of room for improvement across our squad which is exciting. I'm backing the club to continue developing this team and remain competitive for many years, however they approach it.

[i'm-uninformed2]

I don’t rate Collingwood’s recruiting at all. Mitchell adds to their on ball grunt, and will help distribute to their more powerful and explosive players - and with Pendles in his last year maybe, is probably worth it.

But McStay is an average player they have grossly overpaid for him. Five years at $600K is ridiculous for him. Will Hayward’s numbers are better. Hill is yet to do anything, and Frampton couldn’t get a regular game at Adelaide.

[bloodspirit]

AG, thank you for your considered and respectful post replying to my less respectful comment.

I agree with you that it is appropriate to critique our club's list management. I also agree with you that we should "leverage every access point to build our list".

Where I differ from you is that I am not alarmed and I have confidence that the club is thinking about every way of improving the list. Do you think we would have pulled off the clever strategies we have managed at recent drafts if we didn't give it a lot of thought ahead of time? Is there any reason to suppose that we're any less thoughtful and even cunning about every other aspect of our list management? I suppose an answer to that is that we haven't traded in much of note in the last few years. But that is not enough to persuade me that we have not thought long and hard about it and explored the options.

It's reasonable to compare with Geelong, and Geelong's success is built partly on their savvy use of trade. However, first, Geelong are the (equal) best in the business when it comes to list management (I feel we are just as good). Second, our list now is much healthier than Geelong's. We are much better placed for sustained success whereas Geelong only went one step better than us last season. Third, Geelong have been fortunate (or something) to be able to attract so many quality players at below market rates and that is partly to do with their location (close to but outside of Melbourne, by the coast). Fourth, they have been a not only skilful, but also a bit lucky, that so many of their trade ins have worked out well and not gotten injured. I think it was not a given that Isaac Smith would have given as much as he did.

You ask the question "Could our squad have been better via a portion of our squad built via trades?" and answer "YES". But I beg to differ. Assume we had made some of the trades you would have liked to see instead of drafting in Sheldrick and Roberts and Konstanty and before last season began you would have been offered that we would make the Grand Final - would you have taken it? I can't speak for you - but I would have. I agree our window is open but I feel like we have done quite enough to maximise it and we in fact over-performed by reaching the grand final against expectation. The fact that we have achieved this without while strengthening our future list at the same time is a massive bonus. What's more, it's not just that we have those additional quality young players on our list but also we've gotten more games into other young players that might have missed out if we had brought in trade-ins instead.

One could argue that those players will wind up surplus to requirements and we'll lose them. But assuming one was right and some of our players (whether those or others) do get poached by other clubs, 1) we'll get a decent trade dividend that we can spend to best advance our future list needs (unless they're poached by a cellar dweller like Adelaide with Dawson); and 2) we'll have some choice in deciding which players we keep and which ones we don't fight so hard to keep according to the way we rate those players and our needs.

Overall I'm a very big believer in the skill of our list managers. One of the few decisions I have been critical of was the choice to re-sign Naismith mid-2021 after he had spent a long time out injured and before he had played a single AFL game. In hindsight they could have traded Hanners earlier and kept Mitchell - but I'm not sure I would have wanted that at the time. They've rolled the dice on some fringe players that haven't especially worked out but I don't consider that an error. I think KB & co have contributed nearly as much to our success as Horse and our coaching staff have. [Likewise, when looking at Geelong's success, you also have to give credit to their coaching - and not just their list managers.]

I see you comparing us unfavourably to Geelong and I want to defend our club. Geelong did better than us by one step in 2022 but our whole list wasn't built with just 2022 in mind. Our track record over the last 25 years is about as good as Geelong - which is to say right up with the best. And I'll back us to keep up with Geelong and then some over the next decade as well.

Flags are not the only measure of success but even by that measure 2 in the last 25 years is punching above our weight and better than the large majority of other clubs. We can't win the flag every year and just because another club does win a flag in a given season doesn't mean they have done everything better than us. Of course we also need to be continuing looking around at the competition and learning and growing too - I'm in agreement with you again on that point.


RnR - I reckon McLean and probably Clarke are players that could be replaced by trades that would improve our side that played in the grand final. If you want me to nominate the players that were traded in this trade period who could be the upgrades, I'll name Jackson and Izak Rankine. But obviously, they would not have been affordable and probably not gettable by us either (since they were both 'going home').

[KSAS]

Do you think we would have pulled off the clever strategies we have managed at recent drafts if we didn't give it a lot of thought ahead of time?

I agree our window is open but I feel like we have done quite enough to maximise it and we in fact over-performed by reaching the grand final against expectation. The fact that we have achieved this without while strengthening our future list at the same time is a massive bonus.

I'm enjoying reading the insightful but respectful discussions between AG & BS, lots of thought and time put into them. The above 2 points resonated with me, as I, like AG had concerns how well our top 4 competitors like Richmond, Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood had seemingly improved their lists during the trade period.

In regards to the first point, I think the way the club has managed to strengthen our draft hand for next year gives us the flexibility to either draft more young talent or target a star player or both!

The 2nd point is a good reminder not to forget where we've come so quickly in the midst of the massive disappointment with our GF performance.

These discussions, along with other posters, has enlightened me how meticulously the club is multi dimensionally planning with the playing list and more pertinently, how confident they are in their planning strategies despite it may appear against the grain in some areas compared to the rest of the competition.

[chalbilto]

I'm enjoying reading the insightful but respectful discussions between AG & BS, lots of thought and time put into them. The above 2 points resonated with me, as I, like AG had concerns how well our top 4 competitors like Richmond, Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood had seemingly improved their lists during the trade period.

In regards to the first point, I think the way the club has managed to strengthen our draft hand for next year gives us the flexibility to either draft more young talent or target a star player or both!

The 2nd point is a good reminder not to forget where we've come so quickly in the midst of the massive disappointment with our GF performance.

These discussions, along with other posters, has enlightened me how meticulously the club is multi dimensionally planning with the playing list and more pertinently, how confident they are in their planning strategies despite it may appear against the grain in some areas compared to the rest of the competition.

It's really good to have these respectful discussions and not the spiteful posts that we had earlier in the year by one particular former member.

[707]

This post by RnR is a good one.

Who in the below grand final team do we not believe are up to it and therefore needs to be replaced from OUTSIDE the club?

Ollie Florent Tom McCartin Dane Rampe
Nick Blakey Paddy McCartin Jake Lloyd
Callum Mills Tom Hickey Justin McInerney
Isaac Heeney Sam Reid Will Hayward
Tom Papley Lance Franklin Errol Gulden
Chad Warner. James Rowbottom Luke Parker

Robbie Fox Dylan Stephens
Ryan Clarke. Hayden McLean

If you're bringing in class mature talent, they will cost significant $ and unless FA, will cost draft picks. We do have a few retirements in the next two seasons but are obviously hopeful of young players stepping up to fill the void.

Just recruiting players so you "win" Trade Period is not good policy for long term success. A lot of ordinary players and ageing players swapped clubs, only a handful of mid career very good players moved, and they cost the receiving clubs plenty of salary cap and draft collateral, Brisbane, Port, Richmond don't have a 2023 pick until late second at this stage, Pies and Geelong only hold a probable late first then nothing. We however have a very good 2023 draft hand which sets us up nicely.

It's not about winning the 2023 flag, it's about setting up for another decade of flag chances.

[Auntie.Gerald]

707 and BS i too also believe........ that it is always about making your squad have the best chance of competing every single year.

Yet I equally believe in smart trade adjustments when you have serious window periods within decades. Players and coaches have many goals they want to achieve..... but one of the most important is a GF and finding out how much you can get out of yourself and your team !

Every sport tries to shape up as best as you possibly can when a window presents......I have never heard the opposite? Not in AFL, NRL, Union, Soccer, Basketball etc

The part I struggle with is......is that it is obvious we are in a window and I am surprised out of all the traded players on offer from all 18 national clubs, we could not attract nor convince a player of significance beyond Francis to help our 2023 cause? I mean who wouldn't want to head to Sydney to give the 2023 season a shake while we are in a window?

There are also many ways to reframe when assessing a squad / best 22..........ie Sam Reid, Foxy, Clarke, McInerney, McLean from our GF day team........would they have made the Cats best 22 by the end of the season that won the GF? maybe a couple of them? if at all?

Would they all make the Pies or Richmond or Brisbane team? maybe a couple of them?

So there is room for better at the Swans just like there is at any club and especially when in a window of a flag.

Playing the opposite view though............Maybe we have had to bite down on 2023 because we cant get want we want until 2024 season? ie We will definitely need some more strike power in Buds absence and maybe this is the price we had to pay in amongst many other aspects of our list build being done very well.

KB said that we start these processes of targeting along way out.....well beyond 12months.

Maybe this is the obvious answer? 2023 is the opportunity cost for past decisions and holding our powder dry for 2024 and beyond?

We cant do a trade now because we cant get what we want for 2023 and thats that !!

And nothing i say makes any difference really........cause that strategy we have employed is set in concrete for 2023. Win or loose.

But i dont mind a little vent occasionally....... when guessing...... have we taken the high road or the low road for 2023?

[Ludwig]

I am more in agreement with RnR and 707 on how the list improvement question is framed. Although Auntie raises questions that should be asked, it assumes that if we don't land a big recruit, we have missed an opportunity. It's fair to compare what other clubs have done in this regard during the post-season, and certainly several good clubs have improved by recruiting established star players. But that doesn't mean other clubs, like the Swan, cannot take a different path to success.

It doesn't make sense for us to go after a star player, because it's not at all clear what kind of star player would help the team. If you have an established team with veteran players, like Geelong, the areas for improvement are easier to spot. But with a young squad, like the Swans, it's not clear whether players already on the list are the right ones to take over from retiring veterans. We used our draft capital to draft young players, so we've taken a decision to try these players before switching to a star recruitment strategy. It takes a long time to switch strategies, and often with many years out of contention.

The Swans are in the window, so to speak, in that we have shown that we are good enough to play in the GF. As a young team, there's no reason why we shouldn't continue on the path we are on and just try to improve in ways which doesn't necessarily require adding a big time recruit. We just may need to tweak a few things, or just the passage of time and maturity will take us to a premiership.

We seem to have a solid best 22, with plenty of promising young players to challenge for spots. The only question, as I see it, is if we have enough KPF firepower to replace Buddy. We have Logan McDonald, who just might be the best KPF from the 2020 draft. That's something to build a forward line around. If he works out, and I am confident he will, then we only need 1 supporting KPF to fill out the side. We already have a great cast of other forwards in Heeney, Hayward, Papley and probably Konstanty. I think HHK could be another one, if needed.

It may well be true that a few other sides have improved more than we have between 2022 and 2023, but I am still confident that we are building in the right direction and should continue to improve over a period of years. The list management strategy we have taken should keep us contenders well into the future. If we give ourselves enough chances, the big prize is likely to come.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

If you're bringing in class mature talent, they will cost significant $ and unless FA, will cost draft picks.

Very good point, bringing in a mature talent should normally cost more in terms of salary cap than developing a kid to do the same job. So the Swans need to look at both how much he can improve the team AND what which players his recruitment might cause us to lose when we have to make salary cap room for him.
In the case of Buddy/Tippett, their recruitment led to several players leaving, many of which did well elsewhere but were not irreplaceable at the Swans. For example Membrey has become a very capable player, but Buddy's arrival meant his loss wasn't a big deal.

Recruiting ready made players does sidestep the development time issue, so we can bide our time, wait for the right player/s (one's that will bring in something we lack) to help us make the final step, because such a recruit should be ready to contribute immediately - they shouldn't need development time.
The other thing is ready made players that we bring in that won't fill a gap will impede the development of young players in our current squad that might well do so - the Player Arrival Effect (BS has gone into greater detail above).

We need to consider both $$$'s and the PAD - Francis for example may cause problems with the PAD, but not the $$$$'s, Mitchell would have caused in issue with both. Essendon "win" the trade period tear after year, but it hasn't won them any flags. Geelong extremely mature squad leaves less room for uncertainty, because there are less players in their development years. It helps mitigate the dangers of PAD, and they reaped the reward this year. How they mitigate the $$$$ issue is another question entirely.
Our squad is far younger and has a number of players whose development is ongoing, and whose ceiling and even best position must be far less certain.

Leaving aside the $$$$'s in this hypothetical friend BS. Yes Jackson would be a significant upgrade on McLean as a reliving ruck (I'm uncertain McLean is actually a relieving ruck at all) but up forward? Not so sure.
Rankine makes carving us up a bit of a habit, so we all know what he can do. But as an upgrade on Clarke? A bit like saying a Masserati is an upgrade on a clapped out Land Rover - Rankine is extraordinarily beautiful in full flight, but I can't see him even comprehending, let alone accomplishing a lock down job like Clarke (Whether we need to fill such a lock down forward role is another question entirely).

Enough from me, going back to bed. But before I do, I just want to say how much I've enjoyed all the posts on this thread in the last week. So many well considered arguments, in the complete absence of vitriol.
Thanks for that, and a happy Christmas to all.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Alrighty we have probably done to death who in the top8 has done better or worse in "recruitment" vs the Swans for 2023 ????

I was also contemplating recently who outside the top8 are quiet achievers that may surprise.

I mean there is always a team outside the 8 that jumps significantly at a certain point.

Given we heard so much from Horse at the beginning of the season re how we needed to be the no1 contested team ie u may recall those videos pre season to 2022 challenging our team to close that gap otherwise we will fall short when it matters most......ie he talked about the top teams and their contested footy in 2021 season.

I wondered are there teams outside the top8 that are building their midfield into a unit that can dominate contested footy in 2023 and put pressure on teams like the Swans to hold onto a top4 or even top8 spot in 2023?

One team in Victoria has an ex swan that ranked No.7 in the AFL for clearances per game, but also has their captain coming in third for 2022. That is a seriously elite contested footy combo. 2 of the top10 in the comp.

This team for me is very hard to predict for 2023 but they have recruited and traded in very specific players. A coupl that are now top of the stat's but at a fairly average AFL $ contract imposition for the club for these traded players.

This team is currently outside the top8 but I suspect may cause our midfield to take note in 2023.

This ex swan player traded into this non top8 team was a ball magnet through the middle averaging 29 disposals a game in 2022 despite his season cut short when it mattered a lot ie moving towards finals and injured in rd18.

He ranked third in the league for centre clearances per game. Always in my humble opinion a good ball user, he ranked fifth in the competition for effective disposals per game, while he recorded 100 score involvements for the season and missed atleast 6 games of the regular season.

Traded in at a medium level contract and has made a AFL top10 difference in stat's we craved at the beginning of pre season 2022.

Do u think the team he plays for, The Blues could seriously challenge the top8 in 2023 and could their recently traded in players the last season or two now be a midfield that could beat us at contested footy in 2023 the area Horse is craving improvement in ?