2022 List management, trading, drafting

[i'm-uninformed2]

Here’s a question, possibly a dumb one, but … why was Gulden only a pick 32 and Campbell pick 5, I never understood it.

Not dumb but let me give my best shot.

Campbell has elite traits. When he comes good, he will come good very quickly. And clubs draft on a 10 year horizon. So even though he doesn’t yet have the pure tank of an AFL player, once he does, look out. And for those wondering about his trajectory so far, it’s truly the exceptions to the rule that go big in their first two years.

As for Errol, he clearly got marked down for size. Plus, there’s another factor - and I think Liz once touched on a bit of this - other sides would have watched him in u18s or Sydney club footy in his draft year and seen a very good IQ, kick and player. But the Swans would have seen him up close, at times at training among AFL players, and seen his ability to anticipate things, and benefit from their ability to anticipate him. For example, in an under 18 game, would a player he was wanting to kick to always run to the right spot? Not necessarily, so his footy IQ and kicking wouldn’t have shone through as much.

One thing I’d say in comparing the two. This year, we saw Errol get closer towards his ceiling - probably 80 percent. Campbell is still a long way from his. I actually think he’s shown some good stuff at times but has so far lacked the consistency and tank. But I reckon he’ll be fine.

In all likelihood, he was taken at very slight overs and Errol was definitely taken at unders. But they’ll both be beauties.

[Meg]

Here’s a question, possibly a dumb one, but … why was Gulden only a pick 32 and Campbell pick 5, I never understood it.

Swans had to take Campbell at pick 5 or lose him to Hawthorn who bid for him at that pick. So you need to ask Hawthorn your question.

I suspect Gulden lasting to pick 32 was an unexpected bonus for the Swans.

And Campbell did win a Rising Star nomination in Round 2 (after Gulden’s win in Round 1).

[MattW]

Not dumb but let me give my best shot.

Campbell has elite traits. When he comes good, he will come good very quickly. And clubs draft on a 10 year horizon. So even though he doesn’t yet have the pure tank of an AFL player, once he does, look out. And for those wondering about his trajectory so far, it’s truly the exceptions to the rule that go big in their first two years.

As for Errol, he clearly got marked down for size. Plus, there’s another factor - and I think Liz once touched on a bit of this - other sides would have watched him in u18s or Sydney club footy in his draft year and seen a very good IQ, kick and player. But the Swans would have seen him up close, at times at training among AFL players, and seen his ability to anticipate things, and benefit from their ability to anticipate him. For example, in an under 18 game, would a player he was wanting to kick to always run to the right spot? Not necessarily, so his footy IQ and kicking wouldn’t have shone through as much.

One thing I’d say in comparing the two. This year, we saw Errol get closer towards his ceiling - probably 80 percent. Campbell is still a long way from his. I actually think he’s shown some good stuff at times but has so far lacked the consistency and tank. But I reckon he’ll be fine.

In all likelihood, he was taken at very slight overs and Errol was definitely taken at unders. But they’ll both be beauties.

Good post.

An interesting question for Kinnear: where was Gulden placed on the Swans' draft rankings for that draft?

[Markwebbos]

Thanks for your thoughtful responses

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Someone reported on that Campbell came 2nd or 3rd last in the recent tim trial, so it seems likely the issue with his tank might continue into the 2023 season.

[i'm-uninformed2]

Good post.

An interesting question for Kinnear: where was Gulden placed on the Swans' draft rankings for that draft?

I don’t know exactly where we placed him, but we did think a bid around the three picks between Geelong and Melbourne in the very early 20s was more likely.

[longmile]

I don’t know exactly where we placed him, but we did think a bid around the three picks between Geelong and Melbourne in the very early 20s was more likely.

Same. I remember some discussion of us being ready/expecting to bid on him round picks 21 to 24.

[Auntie.Gerald]

What I see with Gulden is a player that can see the shape and movement 3 steps ahead of a play unfolding in attack or defence

What I see with Campbell is an exceptionally dangerous passer of the ball. His kick is absolutely elite. I have been amazed at the few times I have seen him train threading his passes. Just deadly.

It's a little tricky to secanrio plan their future roles but the very first time I saw Campbell I thought Lloyd's replacement with the ability to push forward on give and go

Gulden I immediately liked as HFF setting up pur forwards

Could they play either side at HFF in years to come a little like Richmond had in height and speed up front in their dominant seasons ?

[Ludwig]

If things don't work with our KPP stocks next year, a player worth looking at is Harry Himmelberg, who will be a free agent. Just thinking of someone who could partner with Logan McDonald if none of the current options pan out, and wouldn't be in the excessive salary range.

I'm still hoping that it works out with our current lot, Amartey, McLean, Francis, etc., plus we draft a top KPF prospect in the 2023 draft, considering we are sitting with quite a good draft hand.

Looking at our 2023 list, I feel we could be a top 8 AFL team choosing from 28 to 30 players, with some fairly good young prospects after that. The depth is looking good at this point.

A couple of things to help us move up to the top of heap would be for Warner to become an AA midfielder and Heeney to show he's the best player in football.

[bloodspirit]

I'm still hoping that it works out with our current lot, Amartey, McLean, Francis, etc., plus we draft a top KPF prospect in the 2023 draft, considering we are sitting with quite a good draft hand.

Unfortunately it will cost us to trade forward in the next draft in order to snaffle a high quality KPF, and we may not have sufficient capital without dipping into our future picks. However, at this very early stage Archer Reid is the one I have my eye on. Tall. Vic Country. Late birthday. Played for Vic Country as a bottom ager.

[rickmat]

I still have hopes that Amartey will be a key marking full forward with Logan being the CHF because of his mobility and kicking. I don't see McLean in the future for key forward role. With Sam and Buddy playing 2023 as their last year, we do need another key position forward, perhaps Francis will develop into that role but at this stage not holding my breath. Maybe as some have said, Blakey will develop into that mobile key forward.

[Ludwig]

I still have hopes that Amartey will be a key marking full forward with Logan being the CHF because of his mobility and kicking. I don't see McLean in the future for key forward role. With Sam and Buddy playing 2023 as their last year, we do need another key position forward, perhaps Francis will develop into that role but at this stage not holding my breath. Maybe as some have said, Blakey will develop into that mobile key forward.

The distinction between FF and CHF has faded form many teams, with forward shuffling positions and who plays out of the goal square. If you have a distinctive forward combo, like Geelong's Hawkins and Cameron, you still do see that standard formation.

I've said the same about Blakey, and we have a #1 forward draft pick playing as a defender. So we do have options on board to form a strong forward line even without Amartey and McLean. It's easier to fill defender roles than forwards, I also think that both Gould and Francis will be okay in defence. So we have some coverage to transition to over the next couple of years.

With KPP retirements pending, there's always some apprehension about how the transition will go. Given that we have the rest of the ground covered, we can focus the next couple of years on finding the a good solution. It's not like we are missing loads of players. Just one more high quality tall should do it.

[Ludwig]

Unfortunately it will cost us to trade forward in the next draft in order to snaffle a high quality KPF, and we may not have sufficient capital without dipping into our future picks. However, at this very early stage Archer Reid is the one I have my eye on. Tall. Vic Country. Late birthday. Played for Vic Country as a bottom ager.

List managers follow players for years. I get the feeling they think that 2023 is the year to get a good tall. We've passed on them in the past 2 drafts. If the draft is strong, there should be some good KPPs that will be available in the teens. I wouldn't be against trading in our 2023 and 2024 first rounders if it meant getting into the top part of the draft with a good shot at the player we want. I think we have enough youth to do it.

I mentioned Harry Himmelberg before to imply that we didn't need a superstar forward, only a very competent one. I believe there are a lot of RWOers who like Himmelberg. He's got some fans on here. I think this is the fires time I've brought him up as a possible target, so I might be joining an existing bandwagon.

[Meg]

....

I mentioned Harry Himmelberg before to imply that we didn't need a superstar forward, only a very competent one. I believe there are a lot of RWOers who like Himmelberg. He's got some fans on here. I think this is the fires time I've brought him up as a possible target, so I might be joining an existing bandwagon.

[emoji3581][emoji3581] [emoji3]

[dejavoodoo44]

Personally, I really like Blakey just where he is and I don't want to see him shifted forward. Unless being shifted forward means spending a bit more time on the wing. Last season, probably the thing that I enjoyed most, was seeing Blakey take off from defence at full speed, even though he may not have been entirely sure where he was going. Often, that dare would result in a very effective counterattack. He's also wins a lot his defensive contests against a medium forward or a third tall.

Whereas, I don't he'll ever have the upper body strength to play key forward, and he might be wasted playing forward flank. When he originally played in attack, I used to often think that he could tear a game apart if he got 15 or 20 possessions, but he usually only got 5-10. Now playing in defence, his possession count is consistently higher and he does occasionally tear a game apart.