2022 List management, trading, drafting

[Auntie.Gerald]

https://www.draftguru.com.au/lists/2023

interesting one pager for reviewing games played on avge vs age vs snr list size vs rookies for each club

does that appear accurate for us?

most rookies?
least listed snrs?

[liz]

Those numbers can't be correct. Teams have to have at least 36 on the senior list, and the maximum number of Cat A rookies is 6. It looks like they've not taken account of rookie list elevations, which maybe isn't surprising since these seem to have occurred in secret, and we have had to guess at them.

I think that table could do with some commentary to explain what it is showing (eg what are "votes"), and what it is trying to illustrate.

[Roadrunner]

Alrighty we have probably done to death who in the top8 has done better or worse in "recruitment" vs the Swans for 2023 ????

I was also contemplating recently who outside the top8 are quiet achievers that may surprise.

I mean there is always a team outside the 8 that jumps significantly at a certain point.

Given we heard so much from Horse at the beginning of the season re how we needed to be the no1 contested team ie u may recall those videos pre season to 2022 challenging our team to close that gap otherwise we will fall short when it matters most......ie he talked about the top teams and their contested footy in 2021 season.

I wondered are there teams outside the top8 that are building their midfield into a unit that can dominate contested footy in 2023 and put pressure on teams like the Swans to hold onto a top4 or even top8 spot in 2023?

One team in Victoria has an ex swan that ranked No.7 in the AFL for clearances per game, but also has their captain coming in third for 2022. That is a seriously elite contested footy combo. 2 of the top10 in the comp.

This team for me is very hard to predict for 2023 but they have recruited and traded in very specific players. A coupl that are now top of the stat's but at a fairly average AFL $ contract imposition for the club for these traded players.

This team is currently outside the top8 but I suspect may cause our midfield to take note in 2023.

This ex swan player traded into this non top8 team was a ball magnet through the middle averaging 29 disposals a game in 2022 despite his season cut short when it mattered a lot ie moving towards finals and injured in rd18.

He ranked third in the league for centre clearances per game. Always in my humble opinion a good ball user, he ranked fifth in the competition for effective disposals per game, while he recorded 100 score involvements for the season and missed atleast 6 games of the regular season.

Traded in at a medium level contract and has made a AFL top10 difference in stat's we craved at the beginning of pre season 2022.

Do u think the team he plays for, The Blues could seriously challenge the top8 in 2023 and could their recently traded in players the last season or two now be a midfield that could beat us at contested footy in 2023 the area Horse is craving improvement in ?

Yes Auntie- the Blues were unlucky to miss this year and should be in the 8 in 23. George was a reluctant loss for us and I’m sure it came down to the $$$’s.

To me, it seems very unfair that powerful clubs like Carlton and Geelong manage to fit so many highly paid players in their cap, which we unfortunately can’t compete with. Geelong had a fantastic 2nd half and their depth enabled them to rest key players and hit top form towards the end of the season. But let’s not forget that they easily could have lost to the Pies, and then who knows? Their recruiting strategy may well have been aimed at this year’s flag but time will tell if they can sustain success with this team.

I prefer our strategy; concentrating on young talent, and then fill a gap by a clever trade as needed. Aaron Francis may be just such a trade, hopefully. As far as recruiting a star player- a top KPF would be great to work with Logan, but who is available? And could we fit him in given our salary cap, without disrupting the team’s financial structure?

We weren’t expected to reach the GF until 23-24, so I’m confident that our youngsters will improve sufficiently next year and beyond in comparison with other teams and for us to go one step better.

[BRS328]

BRS328

I am more in agreement with RnR and 707 on how the list improvement question is framed. Although Auntie raises questions that should be asked, it assumes that if we don't land a big recruit, we have missed an opportunity. It's fair to compare what other clubs have done in this regard during the post-season, and certainly several good clubs have improved by recruiting established star players. But that doesn't mean other clubs, like the Swan, cannot take a different path to success.

It doesn't make sense for us to go after a star player, because it's not at all clear what kind of star player would help the team. If you have an established team with veteran players, like Geelong, the areas for improvement are easier to spot. But with a young squad, like the Swans, it's not clear whether players already on the list are the right ones to take over from retiring veterans. We used our draft capital to draft young players, so we've taken a decision to try these players before switching to a star recruitment strategy. It takes a long time to switch strategies, and often with many years out of contention.

The Swans are in the window, so to speak, in that we have shown that we are good enough to play in the GF. As a young team, there's no reason why we shouldn't continue on the path we are on and just try to improve in ways which doesn't necessarily require adding a big time recruit. We just may need to tweak a few things, or just the passage of time and maturity will take us to a premiership.

We seem to have a solid best 22, with plenty of promising young players to challenge for spots. The only question, as I see it, is if we have enough KPF firepower to replace Buddy. We have Logan McDonald, who just might be the best KPF from the 2020 draft. That's something to build a forward line around. If he works out, and I am confident he will, then we only need 1 supporting KPF to fill out the side. We already have a great cast of other forwards in Heeney, Hayward, Papley and probably Konstanty. I think HHK could be another one, if needed.

It may well be true that a few other sides have improved more than we have between 2022 and 2023, but I am still confident that we are building in the right direction and should continue to improve over a period of years. The list management strategy we have taken should keep us contenders well into the future. If we give ourselves enough chances, the big prize is likely to come.

Not sure I agree with you on this. The way I see it we have two obvious areas that we are potentially exposed in. Buddy will retire next year, and there is a fair chance Hicky will go at the same time.
We have Logan McDonald coming through, and hopefully he will make it as replacement for Buddy, but we have all our eggs in the Ladhams basket if Hicky retires as well . Injuries appear to be an ongoing issue for Tom.

As I have mentioned previously I believe the club have this in mind, hence the “stockpiling” of draft picks for 2023

[Auntie.Gerald]

I agree BRS328 but i would also include Rampe (33yrs old in 6months from now) as a critical player we will need to replace internally or externally over the next 12 to 24months. Obviously injuries can come on quick for players in their 30s and all 3 could possibly manage more serious injuries like happened to Kennedy. KJ also didnt look the same when he hit 31/32 yrs old before retiring at 32.

Bud 50 goals pa > McDonald to kick 50 in 2023 or 2024 im not sure but would be brilliant if that happens

Rampe shut down king and allows Paddy to intercept the hot ball into our backline > internal choices are most likely Fox or Gould or even Francis? But we may need to look outside?

Hickey definitely is a very important player for us. His impact has been stellar for our mids........yes he did get ambushed by Geelong in the final when the Cats locked the game into our backline and then had their FF The Hawk just throw Hickey round like a rag doll from a ruck contest........ then kick two 1st qtr from the ruck contest.....ouch.

But week to week Hickey was an essential cog in our midfield machine.

[707]

Didn't realise the Dogs list was so old, only a month behind Geelong

Think some of those numbers might need tweaking, ours are certainly not quite right although the rankings may be. We will have one of the youngest lists when Buddy retires.

[bloodspirit]

The KPF type players I think we could target at the end of the season are:

Tom De Koning (out of contract this season) - can play as ruck or forward
Todd Marshall - out of contract end 2024 - originally from NSW (Deniliquin)
Esava Ratugolea - out of contract this season - fringe player - was willing to go to Port last trade period - has links to NSW (born in Grafton, grew up on the border) - I see him as an upgrade on Amartey/McLean - strong contested marking presence, able to ruck and a bit more athletic than McLean (but maybe less of a tank)

Any one of these would be a valuable addition. Ratugolea is the most gettable. TDK may be the most exciting prospect - but Carlton will fight hard to keep him. That said, Carlton have a very talented list and may not be able to afford him as well as everyone else. I have no idea if there is any hope of winkling Marshall out of Port Adelaide.

[Maltopia]

Not just Franklin retiring, and Hickey and Rampe possibly going downhill with age fast or retiring.

Sam Reid is also probably in his last year and more prone to injury with his age, which makes the Logan support more critical.

Franklin has been decent with overhead marking in the last year and Reid is strong grab as well. Franklin also gets some free kicks (not enough) through his threat value and opponents scragging him etc.

Logan can’t get 50 goals if he can’t contested mark or be so threatening to defenders that they give away free kicks.

I like what the Swans have done and think reaching the GF was a great achievement. I just think we need to make some major recruiting moves in the forward line.

I have said it before, it isn’t quite the Sydney Swans we know and love without a Capper, Plugger, Mickey O, Big Barry or Franklin marquee forward kicking several hundred goals (over their career).

[Ruck'n'Roll]

You'd assume Kinnear and Simon etal have the succession planning for Buddy, San Reid, Dane, Hickey and Lloyd was well in hand.
I think we have a Buddy replacement in Logan. He's very different style of player of course, but is that a bad thing? He's already showing signs of being a 365' key forward. And after being dropped for the granny, one would hope that will add to his motivation.
Amarty looks our only possible internal Reid replacement, and was given a serious clip by Kinnear at the draft. So you'd assume all of BS's list will be looked at. I raised Esava on here a year or so ago, but agree with BS's concern over his tank.
We have plenty of prospective replacements for the Great Dane, the Fantastic Mr Fox is absolutely ready to go. We are persisting with Gould, and have now added Francis.
We're even better off for running half back prospects, so there should be absolutely no worry replacing Lloyd.
Hickey's birth certificate is against him, but he doesn't have that many miles on the ruck clock - and the injuries he suffered aren't age related so let's not write him off just yet. However the kid Cameron looks very gangly as does Lachie the Lamppost. which leaves us with Mr Brain Explosion as the only serious backup next season should something happen to Tom. If his career ends unexpectedly I'm sure we could pick up another journeymen ruck, there seems to be several traded every off season. So I'm more relaxed regarding our rucks than usual :-)

[Aprilbr]

Some great comments above. It seems pretty clear to me that our priority as far as list management goes has been to re-sign our exciting young players plus our core types like Papley, Mills, Parker, Lloyd and Heeney. We have managed to do this successfully unlike some other Clubs, so this provides us with a stable, exciting list that is set to continue to improve and challenge in September.

In making these signings, it has probably left little money to bring in free agents etc. We also continue to prioritise the draft which I feel is a sound strategy. Teams that sacrifice draft picks for seasoned players can struggle if they don't get it right eg St Kilda. Also, Hawthorn have now fallen off a cliff because they kept topping up with players from other clubs but did not have the draft talent coming through. It will be interesting to see how long Geelong can hang on with their aging list and propensity to trade in from elsewhere. Richmond seem to have a good balance of drafting combined with selected players coming in to fulfil specific needs.

At the end of the day, its a balancing act to acquire players from a range of sources but the core of recent dynasties eg Hawthorn, Richmond were built on a foundation of quality drafted players. Our next premiership is likely to be built on much the same.

[Ludwig]

We have gone over the oncoming retirements. I don't think it's such a big deal and have most of it well covered.

The ruck will always be problematic when there's a rollover to the next generation. When Hickey retires, Ladhams will be the one who can carry us through the ensuing half dozen years. It's too hard to stockpile ruckmen, Lloyd Meeks is a good example. A 3rd quality ruckman will just demand a trade to another club. If Ladhams doesn't pan out, we might be in the market for that kind of player move. We've done it twice now with Hickey and Ladhams, so why not again? It's just one of those things to deal with when a problem arises. We were ruck stockpilers not long ago (Tippett, Nanka, Naismith, Cameron) and look how that turned out.

There are likely to be some rollover pains when Buddy and Reid are gone. I'm hoping Reid can stay fit and carry on a few more years. In any case, I think we more than likely have the KPF area covered as well. And if we come up short, we can just go to the trade period or draft to get that extra tall forward to fill the gap.

Compared to previous periods, the current list is the best I've seen. The depth of talent is very strong and runs well past a best 22. A couple of questionable areas is no cause for concern. Every team has to deal with injuries and retirements, and by comparison, our problems are small.

In that we have a limited number of possible gaps to fill in our list, we have the luxury of focusing on those area and target a player that fits the need. So if the need for a trade does arise, I feel confident that we can close the deal.