AFL (non-Swans) off-season moves - 2022 edition

[Thunder Shaker]

How trading and the draft should work:

Brisbane will be recruiting Ashcroft (likely #1 pick) and Fletcher (late first round) in the draft, and are building up points. As a result, they lack the first-round picks to fulfil the Bulldogs' demand to recruit Dunkley as well.

How trading and the draft should NOT work:

Geelong wins the premiership and is able to recruit multiple players via trades, including Bowes who comes with pick 7 as well. Geelong wants to renegotiate Bowes' contract and keep pick 7.

If the AFL had any sense and consistency, they should force Geelong to honour the terms of Bowes' contract.

[liz]

The whole thing has become farcical. Until last year the AFL wouldn't sign off on lopsided trades. Then they let the Brodie trade go through to help out Gold Coast's bulging salary cap, rather than address the underlying issues of why Gold Coast's (and GSW's) salary cap is a mess.

When Gold Coast came to them for approval for the proposed Bowes trade, they possibly reasoned that it wouldn't distort equalisation that much because the only clubs who could afford to absorb Bowes's contract into their cap would be struggling teams in Victoria who already found it hard to pay the 95% salary cap floor (which contributes to players like Tarryn Thomas reportedly being on $700k year). If one of those teams also landed up with pick 7, it would kick start their rebuild. Kinda like sharing the generous assistance package they gave Gold Coast with another struggling club.

But for this pick to go to a club that cannot even afford to absorb Bowes's contract...

It's also worth noting that Bowes's contract is only so high because he's agreed to have his payments backended. So some of it is money he's really owed for years of service already given to Gold Coast. For Geelong to want him to put in more years of service to earn that money seems stiff on him, though I guess it's partly his decision to agree to this.

Who is actually running the AFL football operations department at the moment, given that Brad Scott has accepted a different role? Is there anyone there with the initiative and authority to realise how stupid this situation is, go to the powers that be (probably the Commission) to award a temporary additional salary cap allowance of, say, $500k, to both Gold Coast and GWS so they don't have to trade out Bowes (and pick 7) or Hopper (to a club with insufficient trade currency) this trade period. And to buy time for a fresh management team to look at how equalisation isn't working and come up with a more permanent solution over the next nine months.

That said, Gold Coast (in particular) haven't helped their own cause with some dubious looking recruitment choices of their own. Rory Atkins for four years on a contract no other club would have given him for two? And now Ben Long and Sam Berry, who look like list cloggers at best. They may not be on large contracts but Long has been prised out of a club where he was already getting reasonably regular games so I doubt they are paying him a pittance. Would they not be better off keeping Bowes and taking pick 7 to the draft?

[707]

I’m hoping we might be able to prise pick 7 from Geelong’s arthritic fingers if they need to split it to get Bruhn and Henry through the door.

14 and 17 for 7 seems about right

Geelong probably want it for Jhye Clark, a Geelong Falcon touted around that mark.

As I said in an earlier post, equalisation is badly broken, so many elements are failing to do what they are supposed to, the AFL is asleep at the wheel or they actually want the big Vic clubs to occupy the eight as it gives them more revenue, their almighty God!.

GC & GWS will never be able to stem the flow south of their talent, the weakest of the Vic clubs Norf and St.Kilda may never rise above mid table again.

The supposed cyclic nature of ladder positions is no more. Too much inequity and lack of meaningful measures to limit the big Melbourne clubs preying on non Victorian and small Victorian clubs.

What Geelong may be able to do this off season could set them up for another period of dominance, as Liz said, it's farcical.

[liz]

Geelong probably want it for Jhye Clark, a Geelong Falcon touted around that mark.

They also seem committed to bringing Oliver Henry and Tanner Bruhn to their club. They need draft pick capital to do that.

They don't actually need to draft Clark now. They can let another club draft him, invest two years into his development, and then lure him "home" in two years with a late first round pick and the promise of free coffee for life and a property portfolio.

[Ludwig]

I wonder what the open market price would be for Pick 7. Why couldn't GC auction off the pick? Then they could use that to pay off Bowes' salary, in part. I don't see why GC have to lose both Bowes and Pick 7.

Agree with Liz that no one is minding the shop at AFL House.

The AFL should force North to move to Tasmania. There are too many clubs in Melbourne. Why create another club that needs AFL financial support? 19 clubs is a crazy number.

[KTigers]

It's not just the high salaries that GCS and GWS have pay to pay, but also the length of the deals. People go on about Buddy
and the 9 year deal, but Josh Kelly with 8 years and Coniglio with 7 years. Then there was Haynes' long deal, and Whitfield's
and even Toby got extended. They are all good players obviously, but are they great players? Not really. Have any of them
ever had a Top 3 Brownlow finish? I might be wrong, but I don't think so. I just think a level of comfort can set in when some
players are on big salaries and on really long contracts. Some of them are just not as hungry anymore. And it can be reflected
in their on-field performance. But I do understand why GWS felt they had to do it. And now there are casualties. There were
casualties at the Swans when Buddy and Tippo came in. Just not as many as at GWS. The really worrying thing for the Giants
if you ask me are their crowd numbers out at Homebush. This year they were terrible. It's bewildering that a city of 5.5M people
can't really support two teams properly but Sydney doesn't seem to be able to at the moment.

[barry]

The Bowes deal only makes sense if Bowes is basically useless.
Even though he was a top 10 pick, even Geelong dont think he's worth the $700k / p.a. for two years, or $500 p.a. over 4 years, so GC have to throw in a pick 7 for them to take him.
So he must be almost borderline delist material. Geelong are basically buying pick 7 for $1.4m, and Bowes is the steak-knives.

But it is crooked that they get to restructure his deal. If you take the extreme, why dont they restructure it for $100k for 14 years: almost nothing as far as cap pressure... Just to get pick 7

[barry]

Basket case on a par with North. Millions wasted by AFL.

Only difference is there is zero upside to North. They arent going to grow market share in Melbourne. They couldnt during the Carey years when they won flags.
If GWS get a couple of flags, at least they are a chance of growing market share.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

The Bowes deal only makes sense if Bowes is basically useless.
Even though he was a top 10 pick, even Geelong dont think he's worth the $700k / p.a. for two years, or $500 p.a. over 4 years, so GC have to throw in a pick 7 for them to take him.
So he must be almost borderline delist material. Geelong are basically buying pick 7 for $1.4m, and Bowes is the steak-knives.

But it is crooked that they get to restructure his deal. If you take the extreme, why dont they restructure it for $100k for 14 years: almost nothing as far as cap pressure... Just to get pick 7

Wow, an extremely interesting perspective Barry. You definitely had your thinking cap on today.

[Blood Fever]

Only difference is there is zero upside to North. They arent going to grow market share in Melbourne. They couldnt during the Carey years when they won flags.
If GWS get a couple of flags, at least they are a chance of growing market share.

Fair call re North but not sure a flag would cement Giants support. Going to be a continual struggle.

[Thunder Shaker]

North Melbourne has always struggled for market share. Even in the 1890s it struggled because it competed with Essendon and Footscray for territory. The club would do better if it relocated, perhaps to Bendigo where it could compete as the North Victoria Kangaroos.

Relocating the Kangaroos to Tasmania would be a non-starter. Tasmania wants its own club, not a transplanted one.

As for Gold Coast, that city is a graveyard for sports teams. If the Gold Coast Suns don't work out, they could be relocated to the Northern Territory or north Queensland. Playing a couple of games a year in Cairns or Alice Springs will help them grow those markets.

[liz]

“A few clubs” left disgruntled over Cats' lowball offers for trade targets

Obviously can't vouch for how accurate Matt Rendall is, but he's suggesting that Geelong are unwilling to part with their own first round picks for either this year or next in their attempts to get Henry and Bruhn to the club, but are asking for a first round pick for Ratugolea to move to Port. Ratugolea is contracted but not getting a game at the Cats.

[i'm-uninformed2]

“A few clubs” left disgruntled over Cats' lowball offers for trade targets

Obviously can't vouch for how accurate Matt Rendall is, but he's suggesting that Geelong are unwilling to part with their own first round picks for either this year or next in their attempts to get Henry and Bruhn to the club, but are asking for a first round pick for Ratugolea to move to Port. Ratugolea is contracted but not getting a game at the Cats.

The new Dodoro, if it’s true he wants more for Esava than he’s willing to pay for Bruhn or Henry

[Markwebbos]

I don’t understand why GCS needed to throw in pick 7 with Bowes? Their next pick is 25 why not offer that? Or do a deal with another club (we’d have done it I’m sure) to swap 7 for a lower first this year and something next.

Is Bowes really that bad? Or just being stupidly overpaid.

I agree with whoever said for salary dumps the receiving club should not be allowed to restructure the deal … although I presume Bowes has chosen the club that’s offers him the best future.

Surely the AFL will close this loophole after this?

[707]

“A few clubs” left disgruntled over Cats' lowball offers for trade targets

Obviously can't vouch for how accurate Matt Rendall is, but he's suggesting that Geelong are unwilling to part with their own first round picks for either this year or next in their attempts to get Henry and Bruhn to the club, but are asking for a first round pick for Ratugolea to move to Port. Ratugolea is contracted but not getting a game at the Cats.

I always thought Geelong were quick and fair traders but I see they have a new list manager. Henry and Bruhn are absolutely worth pick 18/19's. Geelong has no PSD threat either, both would end up at Norf and Essendon

All this from the Cats and Freo and Brisbane pulling the low ball trade offers as well.