2023 Preseason

[liz]

I found this to be a very bland and shallow article, which lacked much understanding of how the Swans' game operates. Praising a few good players doesn't make an analysis.

Really poor form to have your number 1 criteria for success focused on the injury prospects of 1 player. The Roar also don't understand how our midfield functions.

I have generally found the Roar to be very amateurish, which they probably are, and lacking any depth of research.

The AFL site published an article last week identifying who they thought was the one key player for each team. It wasn't quite as much of a dart throwing exercise as the Roar article but had a similar conclusion - that our prospects are highly dependent on the health (and performance of one player) - in this case Sam Reid.

The whole premise of the article was flawed: any team is in a precarious situation if it is heavily reliant on one player (though it's possible that a couple of clubs are in this situation). But even more so when it nominates a player towards the end of an injury plagued career who is best described as a solid contributor (when fit), rather than a superstar. And I write that taking nothing away from how valuable Reid's contribution was to the team - right up until early on in the PF.

Who holds the keys to success? Your club's most important player

[rickmat]

And we have those well versed ex AFL players turned "experts" based in Melb like Josh Jenkins who don't think Sydney will make the 8. It is the silly season after all, trying to get their name up in lights!!!!!

[mcs]

And we have those well versed ex AFL players turned "experts" based in Melb like Josh Jenkins who don't think Sydney will make the 8. It is the silly season after all, trying to get their name up in lights!!!!!

Like every year, the 'experts' just throw a bunch of darts at the board, knowing for some of them, it will be their lucky year and they'll get it right.

I would not be surprised to see us take a little step back from last year and fall back towards the pack a little - I am firmly of the view that the '22 grand final appearance was a long time ahead of schedule.

But I also know, for all the talk of the 'they lost the grand final so are guaranteed to be terrible' brigade, our list as it stood on Grand Final day last year was unusual to many of the cited examples of other teams to hit a wall afterwards. A significant proportion of that team last year is nowhere near their peak in terms of their careers - for every Buddy, Hickey and the like out there, we have a bunch of young guys really just at the beginning - many not even anywhere near that point of around 70 odd games + (3-4 solid seasons) where most say players really take off.

We may be overly reliant on a few players staying fit - but every club is. But with reasonable natural improvement in the younger brigade, I can see us being right there at the pointy end of the season again. Maybe not on the final day, but I'd be very surprised (subject to of course a decent run with injuries) if we aren't in the conversation until at least the 2nd week of finals, if not later.

And if we have a good run with injuries, and we see greater improvement in the youngsters then we hope. Then why not dream big - records are there to be broken, hoodoos there to be smashed.

Bring on season 2023.

[liz]

And we have those well versed ex AFL players turned "experts" based in Melb like Josh Jenkins who don't think Sydney will make the 8. It is the silly season after all, trying to get their name up in lights!!!!!

I think it's entirely possible that we could miss the eight, particularly if we have a worse than average run with injury. You can make a case for all but a couple of clubs challenging for a top eight spot, so have to considered any of last year's top eight could miss (though I think Brisbane are as close to certainties as you can get, while Melbourne and Geelong are "highly likelies").

I think it's the rationale of us likely (or more likely than others) to miss the eight that is odd. And ignores the recent exception to the "rule of thumb" people rely on to make the prediction - namely the side that lost the 2014 GF by 63 points (cf the Tigers' margin over the Crows in 2017 of 48 points), yet finished the H&A season in 2015 in 4th place with just one win behind (but with considerably higher percentage) than the team that finished the H&A in top spot.

[Ludwig]

I agree with the 'experts' who have ranked Brisbane, Geelong and Melbourne as thee top 3 sides. I rank the Swans high in the next group of challengers. And there are always a few surprises from teams not expected to do well. GWS and Adelaide could be in the surprise group.

[bloodspirit]

I will be surprised and very disappointed if we finish outside the 8. I'll be disappointed but less surprised if we don't make a prelim.

I think one of Geelong, Melbourne and Brisbane will surprise us and finish outside top 4.

[stevoswan]

I found this to be a very bland and shallow article, which lacked much understanding of how the Swans' game operates. Praising a few good players doesn't make an analysis.

I thought it was quite positive about our prospects....are you not?

PS: Oh, I see in a later post you have us challenging the top 3.....thank goodness for that!

[MattW]

I will be surprised and very disappointed if we finish outside the 8. I'll be disappointed but less surprised if we don't make a prelim.

I think one of Geelong, Melbourne and Brisbane will surprise us and finish outside top 4.

Yeah, I'd be pretty surprised if one of Geelong, Melbourne and Brisbane miss the top 4.

I think we have a pretty good claim on being the fourth ranked team. I was initially surprised at how we've been lowly rated by many this year, but on reflection, it's pretty standard.

Conversely, I think Carlton has been overrated. I understand Cripps, Walsh, Curnow and Weitering are very good. But I don't really see Voss as a great coach.

[i'm-uninformed2]

I think, first of all, injuries - and particularly at the right time of the year (think Mills and Kennedy in the final re GWS in 2021, when we got bashed up around the ball, and Chad's extended lay off prior to that game) - matter hugely, and govern so much of the fate of any team. So with the caveat that we can't forecast these things, and let's assume healthy lists, I have brackets.

First bracket: Geelong, Melbourne and Brisbane. The cap rorters have clearly strengthened their list, Melbourne still have a few doubts down forward but will be mightly refreshed and have an elite midfield, and I think Brisbane have upgraded their list - with Gunston a major improvement on McStay, Dunkley being the perfect addition to complement Neale and a superb two-way player, and Ashcroft an elite youngster.

Second bracket: Sydney. If we continue to get players like Gulden, Campbell, and Sheldrick continue to pop, like Chad did last year, JMac back to his best, and Logan start doing what we know he can do, we're on track - and could easily sit inside the top bracket. My one query: the depth of our KP stocks. They're not ideal, and a couple of injuries would leave us exposed. I also want a return to the ball movement of 2021.

Third bracket: 4 sides that could go either way. Richmond: we forget how many close games they lost last year and they could have easily finished 2nd. They've refreshed their midfield, Dusty's potentially back, have good youngsters and retain excellent (if ageing) KP talent. Or has their best passed? The Dogs: they finally have an outstanding spine, but I wonder how much the loss of their best (and only) two way midfielder in Dunkley hurts and they can lack defensive will. The Pies: could easily see them having a sophomore slump and their additions don't excite me, but hell - they defied logic last year and Mitchell is a good addition. Carlton: they did get a lot of injuries at the back end of last year, which arguably cost them a finals spot. But do they have two-way, onball class?

Fifth bracket: Freo, who I expect to slide. They gave away a lot of depth and first 22 players to get Jackson. None of Lobb, Acres, Logue etc were elite, but definite role players who added a lot. They're disciplined, and building nicely, but I could see them going backwards this year.

Sixth bracket: Port and Gold Coast. Both could jump into the 8 if things go right. Port showed a lot of resilience to fight back after a 0-6 start, and are building a fantastic midfield; but they will face a lot of scrutiny around Ken Hinkley's future. As for Gold Coast, I'm big on them. Drop Ben King back in, Noah Anderson is gonna win a Brownlow one day, and Elijah Hollands has the potential to be anything - and they're finally on track, along with the stability of a settled coach.

Seventh bracket: the rest. Forget it.

[Ludwig]

I thought it was quite positive about our prospects....are you not?

PS: Oh, I see in a later post you have us challenging the top 3.....thank goodness for that!

It wasn't about The Roar's conclusion, but rather the quality of their analysis, which I thought was superficial and off target.

I pretty much agree with ImInformed2's rankings, placing Sydney 4th, which in turn is close to the consensus view. The bookies are usually good at making the odds as they reflect the broad consensus of opinion, so falling in line with the bookies is just being in the pack regarding predictions. I would like to be out in front of the pack on predicting how the year will go, but I rarely am, as I'm just looking at performances from last year and making adjustments for changes made in the off season, which is the way most go about it.

I liked what I saw from the Calton game. It appeared that we will continue in the same vein as last year with hopefully better execution. Several players looked particularly sharp, like Gulden, Florent, McDonald, Stephens, Campbell and JMac, which bodes well for us improving our game.

The other top 8 teams from last year also have improved, so we have to improve just to stand still in the power rankings. The difference will be in the unpredictables, like injuries. It will be a fine line between winning and losing most games this season.

[Maltopia]

Another part of the analysis is who the likely top 4/8 teams play twice and get extra easier victories against (eg getting to play North Melbourne, Hawks or West Coast twice will make a difference in final standings and finals opponents and home finals).

[giant]

I think, first of all, injuries - and particularly at the right time of the year (think Mills and Kennedy in the final re GWS in 2021, when we got bashed up around the ball, and Chad's extended lay off prior to that game) - matter hugely, and govern so much of the fate of any team. So with the caveat that we can't forecast these things, and let's assume healthy lists, I have brackets.

First bracket: Geelong, Melbourne and Brisbane. The cap rorters have clearly strengthened their list, Melbourne still have a few doubts down forward but will be mightly refreshed and have an elite midfield, and I think Brisbane have upgraded their list - with Gunston a major improvement on McStay, Dunkley being the perfect addition to complement Neale and a superb two-way player, and Ashcroft an elite youngster.

Second bracket: Sydney. If we continue to get players like Gulden, Campbell, and Sheldrick continue to pop, like Chad did last year, JMac back to his best, and Logan start doing what we know he can do, we're on track - and could easily sit inside the top bracket. My one query: the depth of our KP stocks. They're not ideal, and a couple of injuries would leave us exposed. I also want a return to the ball movement of 2021.

Third bracket: 4 sides that could go either way. Richmond: we forget how many close games they lost last year and they could have easily finished 2nd. They've refreshed their midfield, Dusty's potentially back, have good youngsters and retain excellent (if ageing) KP talent. Or has their best passed? The Dogs: they finally have an outstanding spine, but I wonder how much the loss of their best (and only) two way midfielder in Dunkley hurts and they can lack defensive will. The Pies: could easily see them having a sophomore slump and their additions don't excite me, but hell - they defied logic last year and Mitchell is a good addition. Carlton: they did get a lot of injuries at the back end of last year, which arguably cost them a finals spot. But do they have two-way, onball class?

Fifth bracket: Freo, who I expect to slide. They gave away a lot of depth and first 22 players to get Jackson. None of Lobb, Acres, Logue etc were elite, but definite role players who added a lot. They're disciplined, and building nicely, but I could see them going backwards this year.

Sixth bracket: Port and Gold Coast. Both could jump into the 8 if things go right. Port showed a lot of resilience to fight back after a 0-6 start, and are building a fantastic midfield; but they will face a lot of scrutiny around Ken Hinkley's future. As for Gold Coast, I'm big on them. Drop Ben King back in, Noah Anderson is gonna win a Brownlow one day, and Elijah Hollands has the potential to be anything - and they're finally on track, along with the stability of a settled coach.

Seventh bracket: the rest. Forget it.

Great summary, agree almost entirely. My question mark is around Carlton who I found totally uninspiring last week. Yep, I get it, it was a practice match, they were missing stars etc, but their back line was still so dependent on Weitering, their mids we're smashed and they still have deficiencies up forward (especially with the small forwards).

[Old Yella]

I'm bullish about the year and while think a ranking of 4th is about right, note that our style of plays generally works well against Melbourne, Brisbane and (apart from the Grand Final) Geelong - who else has regularily beaten them at home? Strangely I think our fortunes rest on Ladhams having a big year, which he seemed to be showing in the Carlton game. Getting first use out of the midfield to our guns would be a surprising addition to our game plan that "prides" itself on sharking the opposition taps!

While he is not ready in play around the ground, I'd love for them to take a risk with McAndrew in the early games.

[707]

Fact - the last year a team that was beaten by 40+ in a GF won any final the following season was 1997.

But we were quite young and banged up in the GF so we may be different to those clubs making up the above fact.

I feel Brisbane, Melbourne and Geelong are close to top 4 locks. After that it's a bit of a coin toss. Those with the softer draws might be favoured. Ours is rated amongst the most difficult draws.

I note that the Cows have 13 games against 2022 non finalists and 13 games at the Adelaide Oval, could be a top 8 smokey, which will piss me off as I live here and have to endure the Cows adulation saturation. Been a pleasant past five years LOL

[mcs]

Fact - the last year a team that was beaten by 40+ in a GF won any final the following season was 1997.

But we were quite young and banged up in the GF so we may be different to those clubs making up the above fact.

I feel Brisbane, Melbourne and Geelong are close to top 4 locks. After that it's a bit of a coin toss. Those with the softer draws might be favoured. Ours is rated amongst the most difficult draws.

I note that the Cows have 13 games against 2022 non finalists and 13 games at the Adelaide Oval, could be a top 8 smokey, which will piss me off as I live here and have to endure the Cows adulation saturation. Been a pleasant past five years LOL

The question of our response to the GF will be less of our about whether our overall potential has declined (I can't see that it will - yes Bud is a bit older, but our younger guys will continue to improve), and more about how much damage incurred 'between the ears'.

The tougher draw is more likely to be a far more important factor than any Grand Final hangover.