2023 List Management

[Ludwig]

ALst nights game didn't really convert me to the ranks of TDK true believers. Should I be looking at him as a ruck capable forward or as true utility, a sort of modern day LRT Ludwig?

I see TDK a ruck capable forward. He would be primarily a forward partner for McDonald and backup ruckman for Ladhams, after Hickey retires. Right now we have McLean, Amartey and Edwards looking to fill that role once Reid is gone. I'm not sure any of them is quite good enough, but I'm hoping to see some progress in all this season.

I was listening to a SEN podcast wrap up of the game last night and Kane and King got into a debate on TDK. Interesting listening. Scroll down to the line Kane and Kingy give their thoughts on the Richmond v Carlton game. Start at around 6:40 mark.

SEN Breakfast

[Ruck'n'Roll]

Wow Cornes and King disagree on TDK, even on his performance in that one game.
It's confusing and a little fascinating

[Maltopia]

Wouldn’t it be better to offer $600-700K to Ben McKay and play him as a key forward than $800K for TDK?

[aardvark]

Isaac Barry, son of Leo, plays for Oakleigh chargers and is eligible for father son selection this year. I wonder if he's on our radar?

[Goal Sneak]

Isaac Barry, son of Leo, plays for Oakleigh chargers and is eligible for father son selection this year. I wonder if he's on our radar?

He is definitely on our radar along with Joshua Cresswell and Beau Matthews. All attended the Father Son Camp earlier this year.

[Ludwig]

Giant’s shock contract revealed as salary cap still a “major issue” for GWS


This is a good discussion on the GWS salary cap and Harry Himmelberg. Mark McClure says Nick Haynes on $ 1 million a year for this year and next. Good player, but way over his market value.

He also says Himmelberg is looking for 700k, but it may be over the Giants' budget. It sounds like he would be the perfect player to target. Talented, affordable, same town, and a free agent, so we save all our own draft picks.

If we recruited Himmelberg, we would remain with a strong draft hand this year which should find the club rolling in talent for years to come. Himmelberg and 4 top 40 draft picks should give us depth down to the 44th player.

[liz]

I think he'd be an excellent get. Let's hope he's very happy in Sydney - maybe with a local Sydney partner.

I was interested to read that Carlton have a contingency plan if De Koning is lured away - to go after Ben McKay. I find this confusing, as the expectation that they'll likely lose De Koning is based on a belief that their salary cap is also at bursting point. And I reckon McKay is likely to command a contract value similar to what De Koning is currently worth (though maybe less than what De Koning might be offered if someone is willing to pay a premium - and take a risk - on future potential).

Carlton's free agency “contingency plan” if Tom De Koning departs the club

If the Swans are to go after one of them, I'd much prefer Himmelberg than De Koning, though that could change if De Koning makes strides over this season.

[i'm-uninformed2]

I think De Koning is going to be a cracking player, but there is no way I’m investing somewhere between $800k and $1m a year in a ruck. The ones on that money - Nic Nat and Grundy - variously can’t get on the park, or are over rated. Too much cap wasted.

I’m not in Ludwig’s school of ruck rating, as I think they’re essential. The great ones like Max Gawn are truly valuable to the way a side plays, but Tom Hickey shows what a $400k a year ruck can get you. As did Mumford, as did Pyke, as did Jolly, as did Jason Ball. I reckon Ladhams is probably on around $500k, and if he gets his head and temper right, will be proven as a stellar trade.

But a companion for Logan who can do all the bullocking work, kick 30+ goals a season, swing back when needed, and generally give our side the second forward we will need to take advantage of our elite assets everywhere else on the ground - and without a second forward our list is totally unbalanced - yep, I’d pay $700k for Himmelberg. He’s a good player, but he’s also a need.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

The Swans have had success over the years by bringing in under valued players and developing them further. It's a good moneyball way of recruiting for need.
Bringing in any player that isn't undervalued (let alone those already overvalued) is a fools errand, because you ALWAYS pay a premium.
In effect by paying that premium you end up adding an overpaid recruit.
Sometimes such a recruit can be the icing on the cake that wins you a flag, but in most cases it isn't - it's just a drain on your salary cap.
One imported star can cause you to leaking multiple capable players to other clubs.
Buying a player that is going to take a larger chunk of your salary cap is akin to putting all your eggs in one basket.
It inherently increases your risk, what happens if 20% of your salary cap is underperforming or unavailable?
We have to recruit for actual need, not just improving the list in general.
We must be very sure that we aren't simply paying more for the kind of player we could have developed internally at a far lower expense.

[gloveski]

The Swans have had success over the years by bringing in under valued players and developing them further. It's a good moneyball way of recruiting for need.
Bringing in any player that isn't undervalued (let alone those already overvalued) is a fools errand, because you ALWAYS pay a premium.
In effect by paying that premium you end up adding an overpaid recruit.
Sometimes such a recruit can be the icing on the cake that wins you a flag, but in most cases it isn't - it's just a drain on your salary cap.
One imported star can cause you to leaking multiple capable players to other clubs.
Buying a player that is going to take a larger chunk of your salary cap is akin to putting all your eggs in one basket.
It inherently increases your risk, what happens if 20% of your salary cap is underperforming or unavailable?
We have to recruit for actual need, not just improving the list in general.
We must be very sure that we aren't simply paying more for the kind of player we could have developed internally at a far lower expense.

Spot on

Look at the list coming out of contract 2024 McDonald ,Gulden, Blakey , Rowbottom , Florent,Hayward and Paddy Mccartin to name a few . Most would be looking at and wanting a pay rise . The first 3 on the list will receive Hail Mary offers I’m sure .
Then . We have the Chad coming out in 2025 at the rate of trajectory there we will be look at 1M a year to tie him down long term .
Pretty much the core there of a potential future premiership side .
To pay overs on the potential of some one like De konning is ludicrous when potentially would cause us to loose at least two of our core ……….. no thanks


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[bloodspirit]

Right now Harry Himmelberg is probably a better player than TDK. But TDK's ceiling is higher and he is younger with a lot of good years in front of him.

The reason I would prefer HH is because I expect him to cost less - not because I think he is the better player. If the price difference is small ($700K v $800K is not that big) then perhaps TDK can be the better bet. But $800K (let alone more) seems too much for someone as unproven as TDK. And even $700K for HH feels like a lot to me. I wouldn't expect him to be one of our 10 best players (and if he did turn out to be - that'd be some great icing on the cake). Still I'm fairly keen on HH and he has the great advantage that he wouldn't cost anything at the trade table (unlike TDK who would probably cost a first rounder).

[bloodspirit]

The noise from afl.com.au that Sheldrick has re-signed (or is re-signing?) continues:

As reported in Inside Trading last week, Swans midfielder Angus Sheldrick, another first-round pick from the 2021 draft crop, is bound for a two-year extension with the club.

Inside Trading: New deals loom for flag Eagle, key Swan, young guns unsigned (afl.com.au)

[707]

TDK will cost us significant picks in a trade and I haven't seen him take over a game, just a highlights player at this stage.

HH is free, we just need to offer him what GWS don't want to or can't pay. He'd be interested I'm sure, he's seen our strong supporter base and if he hasn't yet seen, he will have heard of the new off field facilities.

Reckon the TDK talk is just his manager trying to push up his price using us as a stalking horse same as Darcy Moore's manager did and others before them.

[bloodspirit]

For the record, my post about HH and TDK does not mean I have changed my view that we won't recruit TDK and everyone who speculates about it is a chump who is wasting all our time!

[RogueSwan]

De Koning looked strong in the ruck last night, albeit against average (ruck) opposition.