2023 List Management

[Blood Fever]

Owens and Edwards are KP players in their first year with the Swans, so as long as they have shown signs of improvement I expect they will be given another year.
We might also lose a player or two through trades - for example Amartey or McLean might be in demand.

Believe Edwards is contracted through 2024

[stevoswan]

Not sure where Stephens is, contract wise. Earlier in the year the media was saying he and others were in talks. Others seem to have signed. As yet, no Dyl.

Seems like a 'wait and see' with Dyl which makes sense to me. After his improvement last season, he has been very disappointing this year and he might prove to be a bust. Trade bait?

[707]

Seems like a 'wait and see' with Dyl which makes sense to me. After his improvement last season, he has been very disappointing this year and he might prove to be a bust. Trade bait?

Doubt he's worth much, maybe a second round pick upgrade at best?

Had a look at the ladder, almost certain that Hawks will finish 16th thereby locking in our picks from last years trade at 22 and 41. Our own first second and third are still wildly variable depending on wins from now but barring a miracle rise up the ladder we look to have a strong draft hand.

Strong U18 Championship form from a host of players gives us a chance to get three picks in before having to match Cleary and Cabor, if we choose to match? I'd reckon we would but nothing is guaranteed.

[i'm-uninformed2]

Doubt he's worth much, maybe a second round pick upgrade at best?

Had a look at the ladder, almost certain that Hawks will finish 16th thereby locking in our picks from last years trade at 22 and 41. Our own first second and third are still wildly variable depending on wins from now but barring a miracle rise up the ladder we look to have a strong draft hand.

Strong U18 Championship form from a host of players gives us a chance to get three picks in before having to match Cleary and Cabor, if we choose to match? I'd reckon we would but nothing is guaranteed.

One little quirky challenge for our draft hand this year is all our picks are currently likely inside top 50.

Yet, while Cleary 'might' go inside that, there's a chance he and May and Cabor may get bid later. So do we need to acquire a couple of latter picks as insurance?

[dejavoodoo44]

One little quirky challenge for our draft hand this year is all our picks are currently likely inside top 50.

Yet, while Cleary 'might' go inside that, there's a chance he and May and Cabor may get bid later. So do we need to acquire a couple of latter picks as insurance?

I've been looking at the various power rankings and phantom drafts, to see how they rate our players. The ones that I've found are only listing players that they rate in the top twenty. Of these, only one of them, from Inner Sanctum a couple of months ago, mentioned any of our academy players. They had Cleary at 19, but for some reason they dropped him from their next one. So from that, I'm guessing that he may get a bid somewhere between early twenties and the forties? Not sure why he isn't rated higher? Perhaps for inside mids they want bigger bodies, or for medium sized mids they want more outside pace? There's still a chance he'll rise a little bit in rankings, given that he's been playing well for the Allies. Although there, more attention has been given to his team mates, McKercher and Sanders (who have benefited from Cleary winning contested ball and feeding it out to them).

Much the same with May. I think he's been doing really well, but other more athletic ruck prospects, like Edwards and Read have been getting more attention. So I'm guessing late draft or rookie list? Either way, I still think we should take him, as at very least, he'd be an upgrade on Owen.

In regards to Cabor, he's been relegated from academy midfield to Allies small defender. So, even though he's playing well in that role, I'm thinking that he won't attract a main draft bid. Much the same with Kirk, Gander and Rider. Don't think they'll be part of the main draft, but I'd be happy for any of them to get rookie or VFL contracts.

So, don't think we'll have to bank too much points, but things could change slightly if anyone plays a blinder in the remaining couple of Allies games. And personally, with the strength of our current list, I'd be happy with a fairly minimal, NSW-centric draft take. That is, Albury key position player and young Swans fan, Connor O'Sullivan as our first pick and then Cleary and May, with a couple of academy prospects being rookied.

[i'm-uninformed2]

I've been looking at the various power rankings and phantom drafts, to see how they rate our players. The ones that I've found are only listing players that they rate in the top twenty. Of these, only one of them, from Inner Sanctum a couple of months ago, mentioned any of our academy players. They had Cleary at 19, but for some reason they dropped him from their next one. So from that, I'm guessing that he may get a bid somewhere between early twenties and the forties? Not sure why he isn't rated higher? Perhaps for inside mids they want bigger bodies, or for medium sized mids they want more outside pace? There's still a chance he'll rise a little bit in rankings, given that he's been playing well for the Allies. Although there, more attention has been given to his team mates, McKercher and Sanders (who have benefited from Cleary winning contested ball and feeding it out to them).

Much the same with May. I think he's been doing really well, but other more athletic ruck prospects, like Edwards and Read have been getting more attention. So I'm guessing late draft or rookie list? Either way, I still think we should take him, as at very least, he'd be an upgrade on Owen.

In regards to Cabor, he's been relegated from academy midfield to Allies small defender. So, even though he's playing well in that role, I'm thinking that he won't attract a main draft bid. Much the same with Kirk, Gander and Rider. Don't think they'll be part of the main draft, but I'd be happy for any of them to get rookie or VFL contracts.

So, don't think we'll have to bank too much points, but things could change slightly if anyone plays a blinder in the remaining couple of Allies games. And personally, with the strength of our current list, I'd be happy with a fairly minimal, NSW-centric draft take. That is, Albury key position player and young Swans fan, Connor O'Sullivan as our first pick and then Cleary and May, with a couple of academy prospects being rookied.

Thanks for your observations on the players. And May in particular has me curious from the few games I've seen. I've only seen a bit of Cleary, but I wonder if he has a real point of difference that you need at AFL level and that's the reason for him being a less attractive option. Others who have seen more of him may correct me, and of course, no one has seen him more closely than our recruiters - so a bit like Errol's ability to execute under the pressures and rhythms of AFL-level footy (which I think Liz pointed out once would have been obvious from training sessions with the seniors), maybe they see something that's not obvious in under-18 games.

And yes, I don't imagine we'd need too many points either. It's just we might need a couple of picks in reserve in case, say, for example, our current last pick is around 45 and a bid on May comes in at 50. The other option of course is to accept a very minor deficit going into next year's draft.

[Maltopia]

And yes, I don't imagine we'd need too many points either. It's just we might need a couple of picks in reserve in case, say, for example, our current last pick is around 45 and a bid on May comes in at 50. The other option of course is to accept a very minor deficit going into next year's draft.

Have we traded away our third and fourth round picks? If not, then we have some in reserve for a bid after our own second round bid, don’t we?

[dejavoodoo44]

Have we traded away our third and fourth round picks? If not, then we have some in reserve for a bid after our own second round bid, don’t we?

This is always handy for finding out where our picks currently lie.

Resource - 2023 Provisional AFL Draft Order (updated live throughout the season) | BigFooty Forum

From that, it looks like we have traded away our fourth round pick.

[dejavoodoo44]

Thanks for your observations on the players. And May in particular has me curious from the few games I've seen. I've only seen a bit of Cleary, but I wonder if he has a real point of difference that you need at AFL level and that's the reason for him being a less attractive option. Others who have seen more of him may correct me, and of course, no one has seen him more closely than our recruiters - so a bit like Errol's ability to execute under the pressures and rhythms of AFL-level footy (which I think Liz pointed out once would have been obvious from training sessions with the seniors), maybe they see something that's not obvious in under-18 games.

And yes, I don't imagine we'd need too many points either. It's just we might need a couple of picks in reserve in case, say, for example, our current last pick is around 45 and a bid on May comes in at 50. The other option of course is to accept a very minor deficit going into next year's draft.

Yes, interesting quirk. Perhaps it could also be solved by quickly swapping another teams current late pick, for one of our future late picks? It might entail a small theoretical loss in points, but those losses tend to be fairly irrelevant.

- - - Updated - - -

This is always handy for finding out where our picks currently lie.

Resource - 2023 Provisional AFL Draft Order (updated live throughout the season) | BigFooty Forum

From that, it looks like we have traded away our fourth round pick.

And from looking at the table further, it was probably to Essendon. Aaron Francis?

[BRS328]

You make some interesting about the younger players and where they will fall in the draft period.

We are going to have to make some serious decisions on both rookie listed and senior players. As I see it Franklin, Gould, Paddy McCartin, Clarke, Wicks, and Mellican will depart freeing up 7 spots on the senior list, and Owen and Hugo-Kazan freeing up 2 spots on the rookie list. There may be a couple of others, however 9 changes is a lot and will free up list space.

I would also like to think that both Buller and Arnold are offered a further year contract enabling them to complete a full preseason campaign and show what they can do. I am a firm believer big players take longer to develop and a good example is Darcy Cameron. While this means Mellican could be considered unlucky he has been injury prone, and at 27 next year his time may have come.

Add to this it is obvious we are intending to become serious players in the trade period at the end of the season with salary cap space and draft picks to be competitive, and obvious needs are ruck and key positions players, but also allow room for academy players to be added later in the draft.

[Thunder Shaker]

And from looking at the table further, it was probably to Essendon. Aaron Francis?

On the move: Out-of-favour Bomber finds new home in Sydney
Sydney got: Francis, pick 42.
Essendon got: pick 37, future 4th-round selection.

[i'm-uninformed2]

You make some interesting about the younger players and where they will fall in the draft period.

We are going to have to make some serious decisions on both rookie listed and senior players. As I see it Franklin, Gould, Paddy McCartin, Clarke, Wicks, and Mellican will depart freeing up 7 spots on the senior list, and Owen and Hugo-Kazan freeing up 2 spots on the rookie list. There may be a couple of others, however 9 changes is a lot and will free up list space.

I would also like to think that both Buller and Arnold are offered a further year contract enabling them to complete a full preseason campaign and show what they can do. I am a firm believer big players take longer to develop and a good example is Darcy Cameron. While this means Mellican could be considered unlucky he has been injury prone, and at 27 next year his time may have come.

Add to this it is obvious we are intending to become serious players in the trade period at the end of the season with salary cap space and draft picks to be competitive, and obvious needs are ruck and key positions players, but also allow room for academy players to be added later in the draft.

My understanding is Buller at least has already signed a one-year extension. Arnold may have too, but I am not sure either way.

[Maltopia]

On the move: Out-of-favour Bomber finds new home in Sydney
Sydney got: Francis, pick 42.
Essendon got: pick 37, future 4th-round selection.

So if we finish 13th, Francis cost us around a pick 60 (pick 67 base) and let’s say 5 pick upgrade early in the third round is worth a seven pick upgrade in the fourth round.

If we finish 8th, then pick 62 base and around a pick 55 in the end after factoring in our move from 42 to 37 this year.

Essentially we got him for nothing or potential points used to match a bid as you rarely get a decent player after pick 50 though of course there are exceptions.

[Auntie.Gerald]

I still have hope for Francis. Out of the hopefully type trades I think he might be a real possibility. I mean Foxy has not gone straight back into the defensive team last few weeks.

Francis could find himself in our backline rotation best 22 more regularly with PMac out for some time if not a long time. Melican so so and very limited in his matchups one Tom Mac comes back.

Maybe im way off off and he wont do a Ted Richards evolution......maybe more like a Melican or Fox type of pathway........ in and out over a few years but fills an important role when injuries strike.

Or maybe he can inch towards a Tom Stewart type role due to his ability to fly and intercept and kick off both feet comfortably.

Obviously we have dummed down his role right now to spoiling where ever possible to manage our limitations in defence and stick to a plan with our rebounds.

But could Francis become that Tom Stewart style seven marks a game mainly from intercepts and six rebound fifties a game?

Maybe?

Maybe not?

PS before you go crazy re Stewart vs Francis ..... yep i know Stewart has been AA last few years..........Stewart is 30yrs and Francis is 25yrs...............Stewart was solid at 25yrs old but not as nuclear as he has been last few years ie 26/27 to 30 yrs in a very strong team

[Auntie.Gerald]

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