2023 List Management

[Nico]

This week's Gettable (Free agent's talks 'delicate', Swans' next move, Roos' top four locked):
Topics discussed:
* 1:17: Bottom four clubs including Tom Barrass, North Melbourne's possible interest in Lewis Melican (discussed last week).
* 9:18: Brady Rawlings, North Melbourne's list manager (18:59 McKay, 21:51 Lewis Melican mentioned)
* 28:56: Askable. (32:21 Swans trade targets: key defenders. Players mentioned: Ben McKay NM, Dougal Howard StK, Tom Clurey PA, Adam Tomlinson Melb, Esava Ratogolea Geel, Caleb Graham GC)

Dougal Howard, please no. He makes horrible mistakes down back. Loose and a poor decision maker.

[Ludwig]

We just may have to take short-term measures this year's in respect to bolstering our key defender stocks. Make the best out of Melican, Reid and Francis for the #2 KPD. Perhaps go after someone like Adam Thomlinson, who at 30 should still have a few more years.

I still see converting one of our KPFs to a KPD as something worth pursuing. Making McLean and Amartey more flexible in their roles can't hurt, even if we don't use them down back.

This would leave us targeting O'Sullinvan in the draft, taking a longer term approach. We might have to pay up to swap 1st round picks with GC, depending on our relative draft positions when it's all done. There will be no shortage of clubs wanting to trade up into GC's spot, so it could cost us our 1st and 2 second round picks to be in the race. A rather big price to pay. But that's very speculative at this time with draft positions still very much unsettled.

I keep forgetting about Harry Arnold, who played a good game in the VFL last week. He just might step up and become the answer.

Even if we lose a shot at O'Sullivan, there will still be good KPD prospects available to us given our relatively strong draft hand. As mentioned before, there always seems to be good KPDs coming out of the 2nd round of the draft.

I'm hoping that if we have enough avenues to go down, one will lead to the promised land. The big fish is not always the answer. Buying time is never a bad idea. Things turn up. A lot had given up on Amartey and McLean, and now both have emerged to become decent AFL players with still a fair bit of development left in them.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

I suspect we need a key defender that can handle 2 metre monsters, and one that can intercept mark.
In HH and Barass both defending roles resided in the same body, perhaps we can achieve the same game by finding two defenders.

[i'm-uninformed2]

The whole Ben McKay situation is fishy.

There is NO club that needs a key defender worthy of level one compensation more than North. They have a stack of ultra-talented smaller players and an excellent youngish key forward and a competent young ruckman who will probably get better. Defence is by far their worst stocked area of the ground, even more so now that Logue will miss the majority of next season.

There is NO club that should have more room in its salary cap to pay a key defender like McKay, even if that means they slightly over pay him for his talent/output. They have to use their salary cap somehow.

So if he really is worthy of round one compensation, just give him a contract offer he can't refuse, rather than chase more shiny young objects at the top end of the draft who will do very little to get the club towards being competitive in the short term.

It's more than fishy. Along with the rort they are trying to pull to get Riley Sanders, it shows a club committed to cutting corners to hope they stumble into success, rather than having an actual plan for it. They're happy to throw away the one genuine key defender they have for a draft pick - and round and round it goes.

The AFL has a secret herbs and spices approach to compensation, and they should use that opaqueness to say to Norf: get real, you actively let McKay walk, pick 3 ain't coming your way; here's a second rounder. Watch Norf match any bid for him then.

The fact is Norf have a bucket of first rounders on their list yet they have no success because they've continuously made bad decisions re coaches, can't develop good talent, have a bog average recruitment strategy (yeah, let's throw long contracts and good money at ordinary players like Jared Polec and Aidan Corr) and don't know how to develop a winning culture.

Oh, and their fans are racist bogans. So stew in it.

[Blood Fever]

Not all their fans.

[wolftone57]

I suspect we need a key defender that can handle 2 metre monsters, and one that can intercept mark.
In HH and Barass both defending roles resided in the same body, perhaps we can achieve the same game by finding two defenders.

HH has signed a new deal & Barass has declared he is going nowhere and will stay to develop the young guys.

[Ruck'n'Roll]

HH has signed a new deal & Barass has declared he is going nowhere and will stay to develop the young guys.

Yes that is correct Wolfy.
However I was suggesting that rather than looking for another player like AA and Barass that can fulfill both roles - we might need to lower our sights and look for a pair of players, one of which can mind monsters, and another one that can intercept mark.
I hope that's phrased better.

[wolftone57]

He won't be a free agent in a year's time if they give him a five year $800k pa contract - which should be the bare minimum another club would have to offer to secure a level one compensation pick (though the way the AFL's secret herbs-and-spices recipes works means that a two year $800k pa contract from another club will probably get that, even if they then extend for another few years on much less money).

I suspect the issue is that they know that McKay isn't very good. He possibly has a questionable attitude. And given he seems to get injured a lot, maybe he isn't especially diligent in his preparation. (And yes, that might be unfair. It might just be bad luck. Or he might have body susceptible to injury that has nothing to do with ordinary preparation, but that wouldn't add to his value.)

North's priority doesn't seem to be to make themselves competitive in the short term. By competitive I don't mean challenging for finals, but able to win a small handful of games next year and the next and losing those that they do lose by under five goals, not by ten goals or more.

Instead they seem to think that bloating the list with lots of high draft picks, staying crap for another year or two so they can put out their hand for more assistance, and then suddenly rocketing to the top of the ladder when those young, high draft picks get bigger, stronger, fitter. Bloating the list with a swell of highly rated youngsters all at once didn't work for Gold Coast. It didn't work (sustainably) for GWS.

It did for Hawthorn though in 2008. Buddy, Roughy, Lewis, Hodge, Mitchell, Bailey (Ruck), McGlinn, Birchall, Rioli, Kennedy, Whitecross, Suckling, Renouf all under 23, except Hodge. average age 22.7yrs.

[wolftone57]

Yes that is correct Wolfy.
However I was suggesting that rather than looking for another player like AA and Barass that can fulfill both roles - we might need to lower our sights and look for a pair of players, one of which can mind monsters, and another one that can intercept mark.
I hope that's phrased better.

I think we have one but not the other. I think we have two players who could hold down an intercept role. Arnold & Francis. But the difference is Arnold can hold down the big guys too. He looks like Phil Davis a bit but is faster than Davis and a far better kick.

[Blood Fever]

If Arnold is as you describe, all our problems are solved

[liz]

If Arnold is as you describe, all our problems are solved

Precisely. Why are we looking around if we have a young, quicker, more skilled version of Phil Davis already on our list.

Clearly the Swans are looking to recruit an experienced key defender, but the season isn't over quite yet and their views on what is needed might change before it is. One of the benefits of having a functioning VFL team is that you can get a better sense of what players can actually do, and it allows them to develop team play skills too. Last week was the first time I've watched Arnold and thought he might be an AFL-level player. (Not the first time I've watched him - I've seen all our VFL games this year.) Not a quicker, more skilled Phil Davis, but maybe something to work with.

I thought Edwards also had a few AFL-moments.

If they continue to impress over the last couple of rounds of the VFL, and they are showing stuff at training that we don't get to witness, maybe the club will decide the need is less urgent.

[Markwebbos]

I wondered if Nick Haynes is worthy of consideration as a stopgap, provided GWS either pay a big chunk of his salary or sweeten with a high draft pick?

[Auntie.Gerald]

All fair points to consider

I just keep measuring against we have a window top4 team. We got there last season ahead of schedule no doubt. When that happens it puts a blow torch on our player recruitment team to find the few missing links to contest as best as possible for another top4 finish and challenge for a GF.

We all know there are a few missing links that need to be nailed in the forward line, back line and Ruck.

For me I am concerned that is we don’t find a super strong solution for at least 2 of the 3 key roles we maybe struggle significantly to get back to being a top4 team in 2024.

Do we we bridge with certainty in the short term ie a Nick Haynes at a good deal ie half his contract for two seasons? Ie u know what u get and it’s enough for the backline to function effectively and be a top4 contender while Edwards etc develop for 2026ish. This was Hawthorns strategy with Lake who was more than circumspect in attitude and injury management at the dogs before killing it at the Hawks with GF footy.

Do we hope that one of our squad can truly deliver at a top4 team standard week in week out? Big risk or maybe not?

Do we go after a Mackay and try and shake a good deal due to forces that fall our way via the AFL / north lobbying. A seriously dominant Key Forward nullifying Defender. String mark. String one on one against a forward that could win finals?

[Captain]

I wondered if Nick Haynes is worthy of consideration as a stopgap, provided GWS either pay a big chunk of his salary or sweeten with a high draft pick?

I’m confused. You want GWS to give us Haynes AND a high draft pick and they get nothing in return?

[Thunder Shaker]

I’m confused. You want GWS to give us Haynes AND a high draft pick and they get nothing in return?

What did Gold Coast get when they offloaded Jack Bowes and pick 7 to Geelong last year? Space in their salary cap (Geelong's salary sombrero has space for everyone).