2025 List Management

[UUaswan]

I’m not sure your parting comments are fair given we actually drafted 3 of the 5 - that suggests to me some kind of coaching / development issue.
In the case of Stephens he was playing senior SANFL football as a 17 yr old which is a reasonable indicator of future potential. In the case of Dunkley i think there was more at play with his father and the Swans

Definately more at play but very nervous time of year for a Swans fan

[UUaswan]

To get an idea of Jai Serong, these are the best quality clips i could dig up. Interestingly both as a foward at Senior & VFL level.

https://www.afl.com.au/video/822640/serong-surrounded-after-first-afl-major?videoId=822640&modal=true&type=video&publish From=1660455689001

https://www.afl.com.au/video/929878/vfl-showreel-r9-jai-serong-highlights?videoId=929878&modal=true&type=video&pu blishFrom=1684548300001

Let's hope he is to help out in Defence and not something stupid like release McCartin Fwd

[Dow]

Let's hope he is to help out in Defence and not something stupid like release McCartin Fwd

I am hoping it allows Blakey to maybe move onto a wing occasionally or at least play more freely

[Thunder Shaker]

Chris Keane on Sydney's plans for trade period (afl.com.au)

[imuninformedtwo]

So can someone smarter than me explain the status of our list position availability (include Rosas and Serong but not Curnow for the sake of the exercise) and what it means for number of draft picks/ Academy kids we might be able to pick.

[UUaswan]

Nothing about Curnow says he wants to come to Swans and we are a week into October.
We should drop it altogether and only get involved if Carlton approach us.

Seems like JUH is totally off the radar, spewing.

[crackedactor 01]

So can someone smarter than me explain the status of our list position availability (include Rosas and Serong but not Curnow for the sake of the exercise) and what it means for number of draft picks/ Academy kids we might be able to pick.

I see Max King as rated first for the standing vertical jump and Harry KYLE was first for the vertical running jump. I hope we can pick them both up in the draft,with maybe also Carmichael.

[Dow]

Nothing about Curnow says he wants to come to Swans and we are a week into October.
We should drop it altogether and only get involved if Carlton approach us.

Seems like JUH is totally off the radar, spewing.

as usual I am on the same line of thinking, I'd be happy with this stance

[Thunder Shaker]

So can someone smarter than me explain the status of our list position availability (include Rosas and Serong but not Curnow for the sake of the exercise) and what it means for number of draft picks/ Academy kids we might be able to pick.

It depends on a few things:
1. What picks Sydney currently has, and what the list managers intend to do with them.
2. What we can get from Collingwood for the Buller trade.
3. What we need to give up to recruit Rosas and Serong.
4. Any Academy prospects we may want to draft next year.
5. Relative rankings of Academy prospects, particularly King, Kyle, Carmichael and Chamberlin.

Sydney's picks: picks 10, 31, 51, 69 plus full hand of picks for 2026 and 2027.

On the Buller trade, it's best to assume this is going ahead. Collingwood currently have picks 38, 58, 70, 76. They are also in the chase for other players. Only pick 38 has any points attached, so that is the pick the Swans will want. Assume Sydney gets that pick, perhaps in exchange for a swap of later picks as well as Buller. Example trade: 38 for Buller and a future third-round pick.

Rosas is likely to be traded for Sydney's third-round pick (currently pick 51). Serong may command a fourth-round pick (pick 69). Maybe both clubs push for more, but if so this extra won't come out of this year's draft picks. Let's assume that Sydney ends up with picks 10, 31, 38. That hand looks a little bare for pick matching unless pick 10 is traded.

I am unaware of any Academy prospects coming next year. I'll assume this makes no difference to our goals this year.

Academy prospect rankings: King is rated at about pick 25 or so. Twomey had him at 23. Others are ranked outside 30. If King is bid on at 23, that will cost 653 points minus discount (587.7). Pick 31 is 429 points and 38 is 277 points, so King can be matched with 31 and 38 giving back pick 47. I'm ignoring the actual positions of picks on draft night, but they will change significantly. King can be bid on as early as pick 20 without incurring a deficit.

This suggests that more points will be needed. This is why I think that pick 10 will get traded. It will be pick 12 or 13 on draft night. I expect Sydney will trade down for multiple later picks before the draft, or will engineer a live pick trade on draft night. North Melbourne and Essendon are the two teams most likely to be interested in trading up. On points-bearing picks, North have picks 24, 25 and 45, and Essendon have 20, 26 and 29. A live pick trade is more risky, but has potential to gain more points.

How I think it will go down:
* Sydney trades out first-round pick for more points with Essendon for current picks 20 and 29 (all three picks will slide down the draft order before the trade due to FA compensation).
* Sydney takes picks 20, 29, 31 and 38 to the draft.
* Sydney uses pick 20 to draft a player, matches a bid on King at 21, and picks up the remaining three players later in the draft or as rookies.
* Sydney does a live pick trade with Gold Coast on draft night to help out both clubs.

I have no idea when the four players are likely to be drafted, but it's reasonable to guess that Sydney will try to take a few more points-bearing picks to the draft than are currently held. Will Sydney prioritise points or try to hold onto pick 10?

[UUaswan]

as usual I am on the same line of thinking, I'd be happy with this stance

We sound desperate
He is only coming to us if Geelong doesn't workout

[Auntie.Gerald]

It depends on a few things:
1. What picks Sydney currently has, and what the list managers intend to do with them.
2. What we can get from Collingwood for the Buller trade.
3. What we need to give up to recruit Rosas and Serong.
4. Any Academy prospects we may want to draft next year.
5. Relative rankings of Academy prospects, particularly King, Kyle, Carmichael and Chamberlin.

Sydney's picks: picks 10, 31, 51, 69 plus full hand of picks for 2026 and 2027.

On the Buller trade, it's best to assume this is going ahead. Collingwood currently have picks 38, 58, 70, 76. They are also in the chase for other players. Only pick 38 has any points attached, so that is the pick the Swans will want. Assume Sydney gets that pick, perhaps in exchange for a swap of later picks as well as Buller. Example trade: 38 for Buller and a future third-round pick.

Rosas is likely to be traded for Sydney's third-round pick (currently pick 51). Serong may command a fourth-round pick (pick 69). Maybe both clubs push for more, but if so this extra won't come out of this year's draft picks. Let's assume that Sydney ends up with picks 10, 31, 38. That hand looks a little bare for pick matching unless pick 10 is traded.

I am unaware of any Academy prospects coming next year. I'll assume this makes no difference to our goals this year.

Academy prospect rankings: King is rated at about pick 25 or so. Twomey had him at 23. Others are ranked outside 30. If King is bid on at 23, that will cost 653 points minus discount (587.7). Pick 31 is 429 points and 38 is 277 points, so King can be matched with 31 and 38 giving back pick 47. I'm ignoring the actual positions of picks on draft night, but they will change significantly. King can be bid on as early as pick 20 without incurring a deficit.

This suggests that more points will be needed. This is why I think that pick 10 will get traded. It will be pick 12 or 13 on draft night. I expect Sydney will trade down for multiple later picks before the draft, or will engineer a live pick trade on draft night. North Melbourne and Essendon are the two teams most likely to be interested in trading up. On points-bearing picks, North have picks 24, 25 and 45, and Essendon have 20, 26 and 29. A live pick trade is more risky, but has potential to gain more points.

How I think it will go down:
* Sydney trades out first-round pick for more points with Essendon for current picks 20 and 29 (all three picks will slide down the draft order before the trade due to FA compensation).
* Sydney takes picks 20, 29, 31 and 38 to the draft.
* Sydney uses pick 20 to draft a player, matches a bid on King at 21, and picks up the remaining three players later in the draft or as rookies.
* Sydney does a live pick trade with Gold Coast on draft night to help out both clubs.

I have no idea when the four players are likely to be drafted, but it's reasonable to guess that Sydney will try to take a few more points-bearing picks to the draft than are currently held. Will Sydney prioritise points or try to hold onto pick 10?

Thanks mate
super clear
so if we went for Curnow it would have to minimum include a first round pick next year ie future pick and or a player ?

[BFG]

By my reckoning we currently have 34 on the senior list, add Rosas and Serong we'll have 36. Only Hamling and Hanily left on the Rookie List Cat A, all the rest are gone.

Maximum on the senior list is 38 so we'll only have two vacancies unless we move a player or two onto the Rookie List. Rookie List doesn't affect the player in any way, only cosmetically.

To me, we must match and draft King, Kyle and Carmichael

Interesting times.

[Thunder Shaker]

Thanks mate
super clear
so if we went for Curnow it would have to minimum include a first round pick next year ie future pick and or a player ?

My speculation on trades and drafting is not to be taken too seriously, as I have little concrete knowledge of such things. It could be well off the mark.

I have commented on the Curnow trade before, with different scenarios. The key point I made before is that Geelong is somehow in the race for Curnow, despite tight constraints on their first-round picks and their reluctance to trade away good players. I don't see how Geelong is somehow expected to trade picks only, while Sydney is required to offer a player in addition to a better first-round pick. That makes no sense.

IMO it would not be a surprise if Curnow ends up remaining at Carlton. If Sydney trades away pick 10, that's an indication that the Curnow will not be traded to Sydney.