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So because I'm being lazy, and because I have a uni assignment due in 24 hours and 20 minutes that is still very much a WIP, what real picks are those revised picks equivalent to? In other words, if you adjust for the 10% discount, which actual pick exactly matches the value of pick 23 (and then 24 and 33)? I'd have to go hunting for the new points table, which I don't have readily to hand but I suspect others do.
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Pick 23 can match pick 21 and have 4 points to spare, pick 33 can match pick 31 but be 4 points shy.
Doubt we're in any danger of being short of points. Quite the opposite, a possibility our first pick could be on the clock with all our academy selections still available! suspect we'd then get offers from other clubs for it.
I read that there's only 57 picks in this years draft, and even those may not all be used if clubs choose to hold one back for adding a player over summer/pre season. Most fascinating draft for years.Comment
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Firstly, the actual locations of those picks will be a bit later, as I had forgotten to account for the new picks being created with the bids. Add four to each. I did say the spreadsheet was "dubious".
A bid at a particular pick will never exactly match one later pick with zero leftover points. A more general statement would be: at what pick would a bid be matched by exactly one later pick with minimum leftover points? At pick 23, that's pick 21: 21 has 721 points, times 0.9 is 648.9, pick 23 is 653 points, 4.1 points left over.
It's not possible to match at pick 1 in this way (3000 points, 2700 with discount, pick 2 is worth 2481 points). Pick 3 (2178, 1960.2 with discount) can be matched with pick 4 (1962), and bids can be matched with points from the following pick from pick 3 to pick 43 (though different matching rules may apply after pick 36, I'm not sure). From pick 13 to pick 26, bids can be matched with single picks two picks later, though the leftover points never exceed 5."Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi finalComment
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That's hard to tell. To me, it appears that the two second-round picks Sydney holds is on the expectation that King and Kyle may be bid on prior to those picks. If that is correct, it's not likely that Sydney will be on the clock with one of those being a live pick. I expect the draft to go match, match, match and Sydney not being on the clock with a live pick before the fourth round.
If by some miracle Sydney is on the clock in the second round of the draft, I don't know what will happen. Either Sydney will draft an Academy player, draft best available, or trade out the pick for multiple later picks. Pick trades can be lucrative when the current pick is on the clock. Drafting best available in the second round would suggest that Sydney's not planning to take all four Academy players. I have no idea how likely that is."Unbelievable!" -- Nick Davis leaves his mark on the 2005 semi finalComment
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I’d be surprised if they were contemplating more than three academy prospects in the ND. Chamberlain has tantalising athletic traits but his 2025 footy suggests he’s a marginal prospect. If we didn’t have two Cat B spots available, I’d suggest he probably needs to return as an U19 academy player.
Ditto with McNamara, who doesn’t seem to be on any other club’s radar. I don’t think he showed much in the U18 competitions to suggest he’s draftable but his outings for our VFL side were far more eye-catching.Comment
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I think we have points covered, worse case a tiny deficit - Carmichael and Kyle are the only 2 Academy prospects that I think deserve a main list spot, happy to offer Cat B spots to a couple of the others if availableComment
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Only six sleeps now until all our machinations on here evaporate into idle talk when faced with the reality of the draft!
I'm getting nibbles and a very good Shiraz ready for the Round 1 evening, where I hopefully don't hear any of our academy prospects names called out. Would then make for a relaxing and fun Thursday nightComment
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