2025 List Management

[liz]

After these four bids are matched, Sydney holds picks 23, 24, 33 and 56. I am confident that Sydney will match bids.

So because I'm being lazy, and because I have a uni assignment due in 24 hours and 20 minutes that is still very much a WIP, what real picks are those revised picks equivalent to? In other words, if you adjust for the 10% discount, which actual pick exactly matches the value of pick 23 (and then 24 and 33)? I'd have to go hunting for the new points table, which I don't have readily to hand but I suspect others do.

[BFG]

So because I'm being lazy, and because I have a uni assignment due in 24 hours and 20 minutes that is still very much a WIP, what real picks are those revised picks equivalent to? In other words, if you adjust for the 10% discount, which actual pick exactly matches the value of pick 23 (and then 24 and 33)? I'd have to go hunting for the new points table, which I don't have readily to hand but I suspect others do.

Pick 23 can match pick 21 and have 4 points to spare, pick 33 can match pick 31 but be 4 points shy.

Doubt we're in any danger of being short of points. Quite the opposite, a possibility our first pick could be on the clock with all our academy selections still available! suspect we'd then get offers from other clubs for it.

I read that there's only 57 picks in this years draft, and even those may not all be used if clubs choose to hold one back for adding a player over summer/pre season. Most fascinating draft for years.

[Thunder Shaker]

So because I'm being lazy, and because I have a uni assignment due in 24 hours and 20 minutes that is still very much a WIP, what real picks are those revised picks equivalent to? In other words, if you adjust for the 10% discount, which actual pick exactly matches the value of pick 23 (and then 24 and 33)? I'd have to go hunting for the new points table, which I don't have readily to hand but I suspect others do.

Firstly, the actual locations of those picks will be a bit later, as I had forgotten to account for the new picks being created with the bids. Add four to each. I did say the spreadsheet was "dubious".

A bid at a particular pick will never exactly match one later pick with zero leftover points. A more general statement would be: at what pick would a bid be matched by exactly one later pick with minimum leftover points? At pick 23, that's pick 21: 21 has 721 points, times 0.9 is 648.9, pick 23 is 653 points, 4.1 points left over.

It's not possible to match at pick 1 in this way (3000 points, 2700 with discount, pick 2 is worth 2481 points). Pick 3 (2178, 1960.2 with discount) can be matched with pick 4 (1962), and bids can be matched with points from the following pick from pick 3 to pick 43 (though different matching rules may apply after pick 36, I'm not sure). From pick 13 to pick 26, bids can be matched with single picks two picks later, though the leftover points never exceed 5.

[Thunder Shaker]

Do we think it'll just be getting our academy kids or will we take any open draft prospects?

That's hard to tell. To me, it appears that the two second-round picks Sydney holds is on the expectation that King and Kyle may be bid on prior to those picks. If that is correct, it's not likely that Sydney will be on the clock with one of those being a live pick. I expect the draft to go match, match, match and Sydney not being on the clock with a live pick before the fourth round.

If by some miracle Sydney is on the clock in the second round of the draft, I don't know what will happen. Either Sydney will draft an Academy player, draft best available, or trade out the pick for multiple later picks. Pick trades can be lucrative when the current pick is on the clock. Drafting best available in the second round would suggest that Sydney's not planning to take all four Academy players. I have no idea how likely that is.

[crackedactor 01]

Surely we’ll still go best available? What are the odds of our academy kids always being the best we can choose at that point in time?

I will be very happy if we can grab the big 3. King, Carmichael and Kyle.
I expect Carmichael will make the Swans team in 2026 and King and Kyle- 1-2 years away.

[liz]

That's hard to tell. To me, it appears that the two second-round picks Sydney holds is on the expectation that King and Kyle may be bid on prior to those picks. If that is correct, it's not likely that Sydney will be on the clock with one of those being a live pick. I expect the draft to go match, match, match and Sydney not being on the clock with a live pick before the fourth round.

If by some miracle Sydney is on the clock in the second round of the draft, I don't know what will happen. Either Sydney will draft an Academy player, draft best available, or trade out the pick for multiple later picks. Pick trades can be lucrative when the current pick is on the clock. Drafting best available in the second round would suggest that Sydney's not planning to take all four Academy players. I have no idea how likely that is.

I’d be surprised if they were contemplating more than three academy prospects in the ND. Chamberlain has tantalising athletic traits but his 2025 footy suggests he’s a marginal prospect. If we didn’t have two Cat B spots available, I’d suggest he probably needs to return as an U19 academy player.

Ditto with McNamara, who doesn’t seem to be on any other club’s radar. I don’t think he showed much in the U18 competitions to suggest he’s draftable but his outings for our VFL side were far more eye-catching.

[crackedactor 01]

I’d be surprised if they were contemplating more than three academy prospects in the ND. Chamberlain has tantalising athletic traits but his 2025 footy suggests he’s a marginal prospect. If we didn’t have two Cat B spots available, I’d suggest he probably needs to return as an U19 academy player.

Ditto with McNamara, who doesn’t seem to be on any other club’s radar. I don’t think he showed much in the U18 competitions to suggest he’s draftable but his outings for our VFL side were far more eye-catching.

Just seen a Fox Footy article and it seems like other club have also noticed King, Carmichael and Kyle with Bulldogs already showing interest in Carmichael.We may have to pay a big price for getting Curnow. Though Chamberlain and McNamara might be worth a gamble.

[Auntie.Gerald]

So because I'm being lazy, and because I have a uni assignment due in 24 hours and 20 minutes that is still very much a WIP, what real picks are those revised picks equivalent to? In other words, if you adjust for the 10% discount, which actual pick exactly matches the value of pick 23 (and then 24 and 33)? I'd have to go hunting for the new points table, which I don't have readily to hand but I suspect others do.

Been at the same place as you Liz for many assignment lol

[Dow]

I think we have points covered, worse case a tiny deficit - Carmichael and Kyle are the only 2 Academy prospects that I think deserve a main list spot, happy to offer Cat B spots to a couple of the others if available

[BFG]

Only six sleeps now until all our machinations on here evaporate into idle talk when faced with the reality of the draft!

I'm getting nibbles and a very good Shiraz ready for the Round 1 evening, where I hopefully don't hear any of our academy prospects names called out. Would then make for a relaxing and fun Thursday night

Final draft order has been issued, we have five picks - 31, 32, 42, 60 & 71. I expect 60 will move in to a points bearing position, albeit small points, by the end of the first round.

[dejavoodoo44]

Just seen a Fox Footy article and it seems like other club have also noticed King, Carmichael and Kyle with Bulldogs already showing interest in Carmichael.We may have to pay a big price for getting Curnow. Though Chamberlain and McNamara might be worth a gamble.

Bulldogs currently have picks 14 and 33. 14 seems a bit high for Carmichael, when all the pundits are going 25-40 range. I'm big on Carmichael, but I doubt if the Bulldogs would step so far outside common opinion. 33 we can match.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Norths have done some strange picks in the past few years and so to have Carlton

ie being very blushing on some mids and took them very early

[BRS328]

That's hard to tell. To me, it appears that the two second-round picks Sydney holds is on the expectation that King and Kyle may be bid on prior to those picks. If that is correct, it's not likely that Sydney will be on the clock with one of those being a live pick. I expect the draft to go match, match, match and Sydney not being on the clock with a live pick before the fourth round.

If by some miracle Sydney is on the clock in the second round of the draft, I don't know what will happen. Either Sydney will draft an Academy player, draft best available, or trade out the pick for multiple later picks. Pick trades can be lucrative when the current pick is on the clock. Drafting best available in the second round would suggest that Sydney's not planning to take all four Academy players. I have no idea how likely that is.

If you look closely at the Swans draft picks they have second round picks which hopefully will be enough to land all three prospects in the upcoming.
There was a lot of criticism of the Swans sacrificing the future in the Curnow trade, but I believe they did it skilfully obtaining these picks with this in mind.
we will know more on the first round picks July 19th, and if as expected, the 3 academy players will still be available for the next night, and the Swans should be well positioned to get all 3

[Thunder Shaker]

The list of 985 players who have nominated for the AFL draft is available on the AFL website.

Here is a list of players tied to Sydney in some way.

Sydney Swans Academy

Lachlan Carmichael
Noah Chamberlain
Max King
Harry Kyle
Kaiden McNamara
Ricky Meyrick
James O'Loughlin

Sydney Swans Men (delisted)

Aaron Francis
Jake Lloyd (redraft via the rookie draft)
Caleb Mitchell
Ben Paton
Dane Rampe (redraft via the rookie draft)

Sydney Swans VFL

Joe Harrison
Jack Kluske
James Tidemann

[Thunder Shaker]

Final draft order has been finalised. Sydney has five picks: 31, 32, 42, 60, 71. Gold Coast has the most picks with eight, Geelong has the fewest with two. The draft has 74 picks in total, with Port Adelaide holding the final pick.