Where will our Bloods finish by rd 22? Take the ladder predictor and let's discuss!!

[Gary]

Let me offer a dose of realism...we could easily lose all 4 games & be resting early based on (a) our patchy season to date & (b) the inept second half display yesterday...disposal into the forward line against a struggling team & the absence of pressure was poor. Did anyone else think Davis was often a joke in his efforts?

[Vivien]

Did anyone else think Davis was often a joke in his efforts?

Yep. He didn't have a particularly good game yesterday.

The 2nd half of the Melbourne game really, really frustrated me. Our pressure (or lack thereof) was lamentable. A passage of play that particularly sticks in my mind was in the third quarter - a one-on-one chase for the ball between Brennan and Green out on the wing. Brennan made no attempt to get to the ball first, and then proceeded to fall over whilst defending, allowing Green to get past him with ease.

On the topic of the thread, I think we are an excellent chance of making top four if and only if we win all four of our remaining matches. 13-9 won't cut it IMO. Right now I'm just worried about finishing in the 8.

[giant]

Excellent post, well done top40! What an enjoyable read. No doubt, the naysayers will be on here soon enough refuting every wonderful point you've made, but up until then, I like Missy, am allowing myself to get very excited!

count me in Top40! I'll hop on this "The Secret" style positive vibes bandwagon!! nice work.

[cruiser]

If we win all four remaining games:

1 Geelong 22 18 4 0 2499 1670 72 149.6
2 Sydney 22 14 8 0 2093 1776 56 117.8
3 West Coast 22 14 8 0 2128 1885 56 112.8
4 Port Adel 22 14 8 0 2312 2053 56 112.6
5 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2092 2002 56 104.4
6 Kangaroos 22 14 8 0 2066 1995 56 103.5
7 Hawthorn 22 13 9 0 2074 1875 52 110.6
8 St Kilda 22 12 9 1 1907 1941 50 98.2

9 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 1918 1807 44 106.1
10 Essendon 22 11 11 0 2185 2283 44 95.7
11 Bris Lions 22 10 11 1 2069 1876 42 110.2
12 W Bulldogs 22 10 11 1 2179 2337 42 93.2
13 Fremantle 22 10 12 0 2183 2199 40 99.2
14 Carlton 22 5 17 0 2155 2801 20 76.9
15 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1825 2440 12 74.7
16 Richmond 22 1 20 1 1865 2610 6 71.4

Woo hoo! A QF at home against the Evils!

[Hazcam]

Away from SS.... Yep. I reckon we can beat them on the MCG, no problem.

how is the SS like compared to the G in dimensions?
because they weren't convincing vs pies when they played them.
geelong v swans qualifying final would be VERY interesting. we should go in with the nothing to lose attitude that won us the game VS port in '03.

swans could well meet them again in the g/f

altho that would mean winning 4 hard home and away games and 4 finals games. i doubt our list is capable of that.

so: best chance for us to win flag this year is to finish 3rd/4th and win the qualfying final to get a week off.

tall order but the answer is simple......win the next 4 games. % will c us through to 3rd or 4th because it's already a clear 2nd best to the cats

[Hazcam]

Yep, and the side is called Geelong.

If it was anyone else playing like that with the talent they have it would be a monty, but we are talking about Geelong here. Every time they win another game and get closer the finals the closer they come to imploding from the pressure the town and media put onto them.

I would like to get the on the "G" in the first round of the finals for a place in the Preliminary Final at home.

DST

i hear ya loud and clear!
oh how that would damage their finals campaign!
after winning 16-odd straight then losing to the bloodz
sam newman would jump off the roof of SS!

[Hazcam]

We have to take into account the fact that:

• The Swans have very healthy percentage at present, second to Geelong and 5 more than third placed Hawthorn.

• Teams such as Collingwood, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, and West Coast are starting to wobble a bit. They are not winning games consistently now.

• Sydney has a recent fantastic end of season record

• The Gabba and MCG have in recent years shown to be happy hunting grounds for the Swans

I note with closer examination the following:

1. The Swans are luke warm favourites for 3 games: St Kilda; Collingwood and Hawthorn. In all three games they would pay about $1.70 (maybe $1.60 for the Hawks game).

2. History shows that since 1995, two teams, (Adelaide in 1997 when they won the comp, and Collingwood in 2002, when they just missed out on a flag), were able to win 13 games and still make the 4. The way results are going right now, and allowing the Swans super percentage, 13 wins may well be enough to make top 4.

3. Focusing on the St Kilda and Hawthorn games, the Swans' post round 14 Home game record, (including finals), since 2004, stands at 16 wins and just 1 loss, (being by two points). 14 of those 16 wins were very comfortable victories.

4. Focusing on the Brisbane game, (whereupon we are I believe the underdogs), our recent Gabba record is 3 wins and 1 loss. The one loss being when Jason Ball missed a fairly easy winning shot in front close to the final siren. Indeed we were able to win in 2003 when the Lions were the Premiers, present and immediately in the future. In 2005 when we won, the Lions had played straight Grand Finals.

5. Focusing on the Collingwood game, our recent MCG record is 7 wins and 2 losses. Both losses were by a single point. Since 1999 the post Round 14 overall MCG record stands at 10 wins and 3 losses. Our post round 14 Home and Away record at the G for the same period is 8 wins and 1 loss.

as any good financial planner will tell you
"past performance is no guarantee of future returns and is not a reliable indicator to make judgement on"

these 4 games are equally as loseable as they are winnable.

swans are making their move 2 games too late (hmmm those 2 1 point losses would have been nice if they were wins). this will be a true test of where we're at and my hunch is still 6th position.

[Jewels]

i hear ya loud and clear!
oh how that would damage their finals campaign!
after winning 16-odd straight then losing to the bloodz
sam newman would jump off the roof of SS!

Throw in a goal or five by one N Davis and their heads would be GAWNNNNNN

[Hazcam]

Throw in a goal or five by one N Davis and their heads would be GAWNNNNNN

interesting you point that out
he really hasn't come into his own and neither has goodes to be honest.

i'm hoping for goodies, davis, hall, kennelly, malceski and one of our bogan midfielders to step up and be accountable. jude bolton, mcveigh, ablett and kirk (his effort is always 100%) need to get their acts together

[reigning premier]

Getting very interesting......


But I like the way it's travelling...

# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 Geelong 21 18 3 0 2408 1561 72 154.2
6 Sydney 22 14 8 0 2072 1744 56 118.8
2 Hawthorn 22 14 8 0 2098 1857 56 112.9
4 West Coast 22 14 8 0 2128 1906 56 111.6
5 Kangaroos 22 14 8 0 2089 1993 56 104.8
3 Port Adel 22 13 9 0 2294 2079 52 110.3
7 Collingwood 22 13 9 0 2069 2037 52 101.5
9 St Kilda 22 12 9 1 1875 1920 50 97.6

12 Essendon 22 11 10 1 2176 2292 46 94.9
11 Adelaide 21 11 10 0 1833 1692 44 108.3
8 Bris Lions 22 9 12 1 2039 1912 38 106.6
13 Fremantle 22 9 12 1 2180 2202 38 99.0
10 W Bulldogs 22 9 12 1 2151 2381 38 90.3
14 Melbourne 22 5 17 0 1881 2400 20 78.3
15 Carlton 22 4 18 0 2139 2825 16 75.7
16 Richmond 22 2 19 1 1928 2559 10 75.3

[dawson]

What a congested ladder.
None of our remaing matches are easy. If we win 2 more with one of those being the Hawthorn match we should finish in the top four.

[liz]

Those fat posts at the SCG really hurt. Not convinced that we deserved to win the Bombers game but would gladly take the win now. It would put us in prime position for a top 4 spot, even if we dropped one game from here (with next week's assignment possibly the most troublesome).

[cruiser]

I have us finishing 2nd and playing Hawthorn at home, Telstra Stadium, in a QF, a week after beating them at the SCG.

[Xie Shan]

Hmm...if us and the Eagles each win our last 3 games, we could end up meeting in another QF at Subi, with them 2nd and us 3rd (providing Port and the Kangas both lose to Geelong). I can picture both teams' reactions when the draw comes out: "Oh, no, not you guys again!"

Either way, the next three weeks are going to be interesting!

[573v30]

Hmm...if us and the Eagles each win our last 3 games, we could end up meeting in another QF at Subi, with them 2nd and us 3rd (providing Port and the Kangas both lose to Geelong). I can picture both teams' reactions when the draw comes out: "Oh, no, not you guys again!"

Either way, the next three weeks are going to be interesting!

Hmmm... we've been their bitches lately but a repeat of the 2006 QF would be a great result for us if the Eagles have to face the Cats in the PF.