Trade Whispers / Rumours and Confirmations

[Blood Tunnel]

When our best players are the likes of Goodes, ROK, Jack, Smith, Hanners, AJ etc, rather than DOK, Veszpremi or Johnston, I can understand why our recruiters aren't too fussed about where their draft picks sit!!

Very well put Liz.
We don't fare well with high draft picks. They either have gone home or been duds.
Our recruiters are the best at picking guys on their last chance that are desperate to play senior AFL footy & they don't cost much either. They aren't a drain on our cap. That way we can afford the known stars of the comp every few years where they are paid at the top end of the salary.

[ugg]

But surely the solution to that problem is to pick better with those high picks rather than forgoing them completely!

[caj23]

But surely the solution to that problem is to pick better with those high picks rather than forgoing them completely!

Exactly, and in any event our early drafting has improved since Kinnear Beatson has been on board

[Ludwig]

This was Robbo's big call from yesterday:

Melbourne's momentum has halted but it can change by keeping pick No.2 in the draft
Mark Robinson From: Herald Sun

Besides turning out to be a bad call, how can you change your momentum by not doing anything? If you changed the word 'keeping' to 'trading' then the headline makes sense.

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I think GWS now has the first 2 picks in the first 2 rounds of the ND, so perhaps one of those early 2nd rounders is up for trade in a Mummy plus Dre deal. You would think if we threw in the Jesse White pick from the Pies, that would be more than enough, which would mean that we trade Mummy, Dre, White and Armstrong for pick 22. Seems a bit crazy that this might be the Best case scenario. That would leave us with something like picks 15, 22 and 33, which would not be bad after adding Buddy and Perris.

[magic.merkin]

This^^^
If we only get 40 for Jesse then we only get 40 for Jesse. He did the right thing by us when we needed him too last season so we should do the right thing by him and get him to where he wants to go.
I can't believe how many on here have been so defensive of Jesse yet are willing to just send him to the PSD like a piece of disguarded rubbish.

Didn't he state he wanted collingwood? what's wrong with other Melbourne clubs that could do a fair deal? It's all give and take. I hope its all sorted soon.

[707]

But surely the solution to that problem is to pick better with those high picks rather than forgoing them completely!

Imagine how good we would be if we'd nailed just three of those dud first round picks and still managed to get the mid/late draft gems that we got. It really is unbelievable how we score Hanneberry, Parker, AJ, Reid in second and third rounds but fail dismally with first rounders like Vespremi, Daniel O'Keefe, Lewis Johnston etc and Towers but I'm hoping he can make it and not just add to our sack of spuds.

BTW, I reckon Perris as a rookie is a steal, we can consider that he would be valued around pick 20-25.

[wolftone57]

After landing Franklin and Tippett for nothing in the last 2 trading periods, we might want to lay low for the remainder of this year. If we got another first round pick, the Melbourne journos will be calling for blood again and claim that we are somehow once more rorting the system, even though Collingwood seem to do it almost every year.

If it is pick 40 for White and Armstrong, it will probably end up being at least as high as 43 after compo picks, which doesn't seem fair value, but we might well be delisting Armstrong if we can't find a home for him; so it does show that we help players find new clubs and is good PR.

2nd and 3rd round picks could be useful if you are targeting KPDs and ruckmen which tend to get overlooked in the earlier rounds, and this is an area of need for us anyway. There are also several players that were overlooked in last year's draft that have come on this year and could be interesting later round picks.

If all the talked about players are moved on, then we will have lost 8 players. We have added 3 already with Franklin, Perris and Patrick Mitchell, so that would make 5 spots left if we keep the same list size; perhaps that would only mean 3 ND picks plus rookie upgrades. There is also a chance that we might exchange Everitt and Mummy for another player rather than a pick.

Most of the better players in this year's draft are midfielders, which is an area where we have a lot of depth. We have quite a few promising young players that should be competing for spots against an already high quality midfield, so we aren't in great need of adding to those numbers at present.

Mitchell is an international rookie and he won't go onto the main list. There are concessions I believe for having international rookies. The rules state that we may have up to 3 international scholarship players outside the main list. We may have up to 6 rookies or 2 veterans and 4 rookies plus up to 3 international rookies. Mitchell therefore does not count on our list of 44 which includes the rookies. Perris is a rookie under the old Scholarship scheme so he doesn't count in our 44 either.

We have retirements of Jude Morto & Marty (3), Mummy and Jesse moving on (2), Brownie delisted (1) that is (6) from the Senior list. If Dre and Tony go that will be (8). buddy cuts that to (7). Rampe (6) & if we upgrade BJ & Biggs (4). We may have only (4) Senior list places for draft picks. We will then have (4) rookies other than scholarship and International, Naismith, Robinson & Lloyd. I think we can pick (2) more not certain about that it depends on our Veterans List.

[Plugger46]

But surely the solution to that problem is to pick better with those high picks rather than forgoing them completely!

100%. We've stuffed our top picks and done well with later picks.

You can't praise us for doing well with mid to late picks and conveniently forget that we've stuffed up some of the early picks. Having said that, it does show how much of a lottery the draft can be.

[DK_]

100%. We've stuffed our top picks and done well with later picks.

You can't praise us for doing well with mid to late picks and conveniently forget that we've stuffed up some of the early picks. Having said that, it does show how much of a lottery the draft can be.

Wasn't fixing that problem the whole point of the moneyball idea? Our performance post-2008 has been good enough hasn't it?

[liz]

But surely the solution to that problem is to pick better with those high picks rather than forgoing them completely!

My observation was slightly tongue in cheek.

However, I do wonder if the relatively high failure rate for players taken with earlyish picks is partly attributable to those who have starred throughout junior football not always adjusting to how hard you have to work to sustain a senior AFL career, and that talent is only a small part of what makes a player successful. Obviously that doesn't apply to all players drafted with early picks. Many adapt very well and marry their talent with determination and application. But I reckon a fair few (and LJ and Vez are possibly too examples) are slower to realise how hard they need to work than, say, a Brett Kirk or Kieran Jack.

[wolftone57]

100%. We've stuffed our top picks and done well with later picks.

You can't praise us for doing well with mid to late picks and conveniently forget that we've stuffed up some of the early picks. Having said that, it does show how much of a lottery the draft can be.

Every team takes the chance that their No1 choice is going to be a good one.

Of our current team 5 were take in the top 20 (I am not counting Jude & Dre);
*Franklin
*McVeigh
*Rohan
*Jetta
*Shaw

Nine were taken between 20 & 40

#Lamb
#Richards
#Roberts-Thompson
#Hannaberry
#Tippett
#Reid
#Parker
#Kennedy
# Mitchell

Six between 40 & 80
@Goodes
@O'Keefe
@Johnson
@Bird
@Malceski
@Walsh

The rest were rookies

$ Grundy
$ Jack
$ Pyke
$ Rampe
$ Smith
$ McGlinn
$ Cunningham
$ Jack B
$ Biggs

I have only included players who have played senior footy in the last year and look like being on the list next year.

The upshot is that most players in our side have come from either the 20-40 or Rookie list picks. Eighteen out of the 39 players listed.

[Industrial Fan]

Great trade for both parties.

For the Dees they get a good young player plus keep a top 10 draft pick.

Reckon GWS will trade pick 2 but it will be worth a lot as, given that GWS will draft Boyd, it guarantees then the pick of their choice excluding Boyd. Can see that pick resulting in quite a high profile signing for the Bogans...

If I was GWS I would be offering picks 1, 2 and 20 for the Jack brothers. Fire a salvo back at the swans for Franklin.

[wolftone57]

Mitchell is an international rookie and he won't go onto the main list. There are concessions I believe for having international rookies. The rules state that we may have up to 3 international scholarship players outside the main list. We may have up to 6 rookies or 2 veterans and 4 rookies plus up to 3 international rookies. Mitchell therefore does not count on our list of 44 which includes the rookies. Perris is a rookie under the old Scholarship scheme so he doesn't count in our 44 either.

We have retirements of Jude Morto & Marty (3), Mummy and Jesse moving on (2), Brownie delisted (1) that is (6) from the Senior list. If Dre and Tony go that will be (8). buddy cuts that to (7). Rampe (6) & if we upgrade BJ & Biggs (4). We may have only (4) Senior list places for draft picks. We will then have (4) rookies other than scholarship and International, Naismith, Robinson & Lloyd. I think we can pick (2) more not certain about that it depends on our Veterans List.

I forgot Xav Richards. If he stays on the Rookie List? he might just be upgraded.

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If I was GWS I would be offering picks 1, 2 and 20 for the Jack brothers. Fire a salvo back at the swans for Franklin.

The Jack Bros are both under contract. i think Kizza has a three year deal and BJ has a Rookie Contract until next year unless we upgrade him and then he gets a brand new full contract 2nd year. It would be a very bold move and against the player rules that don't allow a contracted player to be poached unless the team they play for allows the poach.

[Ludwig]

Mitchell is an international rookie and he won't go onto the main list. There are concessions I believe for having international rookies. The rules state that we may have up to 3 international scholarship players outside the main list. We may have up to 6 rookies or 2 veterans and 4 rookies plus up to 3 international rookies. Mitchell therefore does not count on our list of 44 which includes the rookies. Perris is a rookie under the old Scholarship scheme so he doesn'r count in our 44 either.

we have retirements of Jude & Marty (2), Mummy and Jesse moving on (2), Brownie delisted (1) that is (5) from the Senior list. if Dre and Tony go that will be (7). buddy cuts that to (6). Rampe (5) & if we upgrade BJ & Biggs (3). We may have only (3) Senior list places for draft picks. We will then have (3) rookies other than scholarship and International, Naismith, Robinson & Lloyd. I think we can pick (3) more not certain about that it depends on our Veterans List.

I wasn't referring to any particular lists, but rather the total number of player movements, to which, if the rumours are to believed, then we will have 8 out and 3 already in, leaving 5 to be added either on the primary or rookie lists, depending on rookie elevations. The exact distribution of picks will depend on what transpires in the rest of the trade period and how many ND picks the club wants to take. There is no guarantee that the total list size will remain he same. As you have stated, the international rookies are outside the regular list limits as are the category B rookies.

Using the same assumptions, we would have a net of 6 primary list positions vacant to get back to 38. My guess is that we are aiming for 3 ND picks and elevations of Rampe + 2 more. Any of this could change if there are surprises left in the trade period.

[ugg]

Trade Radio?@traderadio

BREAKING: Shane Mumford from @sydneyswans to @GWS_Giants for third round pick (currently 35)

Wasn't expecting that.