Trade Whispers / Rumours and Confirmations

[Ludwig]

Yeah. I would have sworn on a stack of Bibles that I typed ND.

Must have been BillyRay's Bibles!

[BillyRayCypress]

Must have been BillyRay's Bibles!

Yes, nothing like having a good read before the moonshine.

Brian Lake wins Norm Smith and you would have to say that he was the trade of last season.

I would think that the Swans would not let Mummy leave unless they had a similar plan to when they traded Jolly.

Now with the likelihood of both going (White and Mumford) I hope that the Swans may get more aggressive in this year's trading and maybe try to update the list as they did at the end of 2009.

Supporters always tend to overestimate the quality of their list and realistically, how much more will we get from the like of LRT, Shaw, Goodes and ROK. Its not so much that they are getting old but injuries now are robbing them and the team of most of the season.

I'm a big fan of Reid but both he and MItchell have spent more time on the sideline this year than playing. Will that change next year?

Last year there didn't seem a need for teams to rest players whereas this year there has been that change. Will that carry over to next year?

The trade stories should start flying fairly thick this week.

[Flying South]

Package up mumford and grundy to gws for Boyd. Reid to CHB. Trade in another hard bodied inside midfielder, someone like Sylvia to help out Kennedy and Mitchell. Would Melbourne be interested in lamb or mcglynn. White for earliest draft pick we can get.

[Bloodthirsty]

Package up mumford and grundy to gws for Boyd. Reid to CHB. Trade in another hard bodied inside midfielder, someone like Sylvia to help out Kennedy and Mitchell. Would Melbourne be interested in lamb or mcglynn. White for earliest draft pick we can get.

I'm keen for anything that doesn't require 'development time', so they better be ready to go. Our period of dominance should start in 2014, injury free of course.

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Well if Mummy is off to GWS, we should go for Pick 1 by adding another player.

Yep.

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Package up mumford and grundy to gws for Boyd. Reid to CHB. Trade in another hard bodied inside midfielder, someone like Sylvia to help out Kennedy and Mitchell. Would Melbourne be interested in lamb or mcglynn. White for earliest draft pick we can get.

Agree with it all man but would GWS take Mummy and Grundy for Boyd?

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Also....just wanna predict a Swans v Freo GF in 2014.

[jono2707]

Why we'd think Grundy should be traded is beyond me. He's one of the foundation stones of one of the best defenses in the comp over the last few years. We shouldn't mess with that.

If Jesse and Mummy want to go, fine, but we shouldn't be trading away anyone else at this point.

[Industrial Fan]

Armstrong will go. Mcglynn is another that I think needs to become a run with player or we need to rehome him. Plenty of effort but looked like a headless chook in his last few games. I've always been a fan of his but I think we've outgrown him. He did an outstanding job on Didak as a tagger when he was a hawk, and Didak was good.

[Ludwig]

Why we'd think Grundy should be traded is beyond me. He's one of the foundation stones of one of the best defenses in the comp over the last few years. We shouldn't mess with that.

I think it's just that if you can get Boyd in the draft then you move Reid into defence, Johnson comes back and Grundy becomes superfluous. You still have LRT to backup and few up and comers in the ressies. So it makes sense from that perspective. You have to do better than just tread water, because the comp gets harder every year.

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Armstrong will go. Mcglynn is another that I think needs to become a run with player or we need to rehome him. Plenty of effort but looked like a headless chook in his last few games. I've always been a fan of his but I think we've outgrown him. He did an outstanding job on Didak as a tagger when he was a hawk, and Didak was good.

Agree on both counts. I don't know if we could get anything for Armstrong, but would be good just to get him off the payroll. If not, he has shown improvement in the ressies this year, so there is some hope. You're right about McGlynn. I see him only as a specialist tagger now. I don't know who would take him, but you never know. Most probably he will stay on.

[goswannies]

I would think that the Swans would not let Mummy leave unless they had a similar plan to when they traded Jolly.

Hate to burst your bubble but we cannot stop Mummy leaving. The only control we have is that, unless he wants to go to GWS, other clubs will have to trade with us. But if he simply wants out he goes like Tippett did from the Crows & tries to price himself to a club.
Jolly was still under contract, so we had much more control.

[Matt80]

If Mumford and GWS want each other, he can be the first pick in the Pre-Season Draft. We would get nothing for Mumford if that was the simple deal!

If you wanted GWS's pick 1 in a package deal with Mumford, you would need to give them one or two outstanding players who are young enough and hard enough to provide GWS good currency! Josh Kennedy and Mumford would work, maybe Grundy, Tom Mitchell and Mumford would work!

GWS own all the cards in this deal and they will extract maximum value in any deal. I would be more inclined to go for a second round or late first round and throw Ben McGlynn and Jed Lamb in with Mumford. The giants may like a hard player like McGlynn.

[Dosser]

All of this talk about Reid moving to the backline. If Mummy and White both go, then who is our CHF? LRT or Walsh wont cut it. The best result would be for White to stay (which he wont) so that Reid goes back. Otherwise we are stuck with Ted and Reg in the backline and Sam up front.

[Ludwig]

All of this talk about Reid moving to the backline. If Mummy and White both go, then who is our CHF? LRT or Walsh wont cut it. The best result would be for White to stay (which he wont) so that Reid goes back. Otherwise we are stuck with Ted and Reg in the backline and Sam up front.

When you have a Kurt Tippett as your FF, your options are many in how to structure the forward line. If Reid were to go to the backline and with Johnson returning as well, then LRT, Goodes and Everitt offer a few tall options up forward, one or two will suffice. Furthermore, we can choose from Rohan, ROK, Membrey and Towers as other strong marking, good goal kickers, to add to the mix. I think we have seven good options to choose from to fill perhaps 3 or 4 spots, even without Reid or White in the mix. I prefer a more open forward line with a less predictable look than one where you have Tippett, Mummy and Pyke all competing for the long bomb.

[BillyRayCypress]

Hate to burst your bubble but we cannot stop Mummy leaving. The only control we have is that, unless he wants to go to GWS, other clubs will have to trade with us. But if he simply wants out he goes like Tippett did from the Crows & tries to price himself to a club.
Jolly was still under contract, so we had much more control.

I agree with what you're saying but the Swans have the option to keep him. Tippett wanted out of the Crows.

So if the Swans choose to not match the GWS offer then they have balanced up the positives and negatives of keeping him for that offer and chose that the negatives outweigh the positives. That includes knowing that they could lose him for nothing.

[stellation]

I agree with what you're saying but the Swans have the option to keep him. Tippett wanted out of the Crows.

So if the Swans choose to not match the GWS offer then they have balanced up the positives and negatives of keeping him for that offer and chose that the negatives outweigh the positives. That includes knowing that they could lose him for nothing.

I get that they're worried about his body holding up, and I really don't know all the ins and outs of negotiations or how his body is holding up, but if they don't have a ruck solution for next year beyond running with Pyke then I hope they think long and hard about their offer. I appreciate the need for austerity in 3 and 4 years time, but I think it's reasonable to say we're in a premiership window now and I'd hate to see us risk 1 year in a window for the sake of 1 year in the future.

I suspect they aren't completely sure about running with Pyke considering they are willing to give Mummy 2 years, presumably at good money as the only thing we've heard about is the number of years being an issue. I wonder if we've gone back to him and offered 3 years? If we are in financial dire straits in that third year I'd be surprised if there wasn't a team willing to trade for him at the end of the second (short of a complete breakdown of his body, which we're obviously gambling wouldn't happen over 2 years as that's within the window we're wiling to offer him).

[sharp9]

Those arguing that retaining Jesse should be a priority for the Swans need to understand that even if the club would like to keep him, it is out of their hands.

Look at things from Jesse's point of view. His football improved markedly in 2012. His fitness improved, he finally seemed to accept that his chances at sustained senior football would be enhanced if he could become at least a semi-competent back-up ruckman, and offer something around the ground. He played much of the reserves season in the ruck, winning himself the ruck spot in the NEAFL Eastern Conference team of the year. When he went forward, he was productive and kicked a couple of big bags of goals.

Despite this, senior opportunities were few and far between. The Swans senior team was going great guns and there were few injuries that opened up even the glimmer of senior opportunity for Jesse.

At the end of the year, the Swans set their sights on Tippett, whose arrival at the club would limit even further any chances Jesse might have to force his way into the senior team. To add insult to injury, he was offered up as a trade to Adelaide - not in itself a bad thing for Jesse - and promptly became a source of ridicule, with the media speculating (possibly correctly) that the Swans were desperate to rid themselves of him and his fat contract so that they could fit Tippett under the cap.

The trade falls through, and Jesse has to front back up to the Swans for the start of the new pre-season in the knowledge that he was a long way from being a required player and further than ever away from senior footy. Despite this, he knuckles down, applies himself, and continues to improve his endurance.

The new season starts and he is, of course, in the reserves team. He plays well, taking up from where he left off the previous year. On the injury front, things are a little different for the Swans. First they lose LRT to long term injury, a player directly competing with Jesse as a forward cum makeshift ruck. Mumford's not in top nick and Pyke is shouldering much of the ruckwork on his own. Still Jesse's stuck in the reserves. The Reid gets injured. So does Goodes. What happens? Walsh gets called up for a senior game ahead of Jesse.

Fortune only changes for Jesse at Walsh's expense and he is literally the only tall player left standing. He gets a senior recall and, to his credit, makes decent contributions in some games, very good ones in others. The media starts talking about him, suggesting how much Adelaide must wish they'd taken him, especially with Walker gone for the season. By the end of the year he's put together a pretty reasonable three months of football on the public stage and the general perception of him is that he's not such a dud after all.

But still, he looks at the Swans list and realises that Goodes and Reid and LRT are all expected back next year. Tippett won't be suspended for half the season. Players like Membrey, Rohan and maybe Towers are breathing down his neck fighting for spots in next year's forward line. He's not going to be in the best 22, even after the relatively good show he's put on when opportunity finally came knocking.

Other clubs have taken notice of his decent form, and some of them are crying out for a player like him, They have a clear spot for him in their senior team. Collingwood is an obvious case in point. They recruited Lynch to provide big-bodied senior support to Cloke, and to pinch hit in the ruck but it was clear early in the season that Lynch was on his last legs. They were forced to play their best key defender as a forward just so that Cloke wasn't triple teamed the whole time. By the end of the season, they have also realised that their number one ruckman of the past few seasons is physically shot, and delist him, leaving two very young and inexperienced rucks to lead the way in 2014, supported by the near pensioner in Hudson. They desperately need someone like Jesse who they don't expect to become a world beater but has a definite role to play over the next couple of seasons. They offer him a 3 year contract. Jesse may never get another opportunity. His stocks aren't going to rise if he plays another season or two in the NEAFL and he's 25 already, so should be in peak of his career. He can't afford to wait around for another two years for Goodes and LRT to retire and hope that no-one else has emerged ahead of him.

If I were Jesse, I know what I would do.

Okay Liz I've "known" you for 11 years or thereabouts....but that's possibly your best ever post. Superb....why can't paid journalists write with this clarity. :-)

[Flying South]

When you have a Kurt Tippett as your FF, your options are many in how to structure the forward line. If Reid were to go to the backline and with Johnson returning as well, then LRT, Goodes and Everitt offer a few tall options up forward, one or two will suffice. Furthermore, we can choose from Rohan, ROK, Membrey and Towers as other strong marking, good goal kickers, to add to the mix. I think we have seven good options to choose from to fill perhaps 3 or 4 spots, even without Reid or White in the mix. I prefer a more open forward line with a less predictable look than one where you have Tippett, Mummy and Pyke all competing for the long bomb.

I agree completely Ludwig, with or without Boyd, we could still have a great forward line. FWIW my analysis for our 2014 team and trading is as follows;

Full Forward Line
Starting 3: O?Keefe, Tippett, B Jack
Alternates: Cunningham, Everitt
Others: Walsh
Half Forward Line
Starting 3: Parker, Goodes, Rohan
Alternates: Membrey, Towers
Others: McGlynn
Centre Line
Starting 3: Jack, McVeigh, Hanneberry
Alternates: Jetta, Lloyd
Others: Lamb, Marsh
Followers
Starting 3: Pyke, Kennedy, Mitchell
Alternates: ????, Naismith
Others: Bird, D Robinson
Comment: This is the area we are definitely have a weakness. Mitchell is still young and can?t crash and bash all year. Bird is a good soldier, but not elite. Robinson could develop nicely, hopefully get a few senior games into him during the year. But we need to get in an experienced hard body. like a Sylvia, Chapman or Bell from Carlton (who I have a big opinion of). Could be short on the ruck stocks if Pyke gets injured.
Halfback Line
Starting 3: Smith, S Reid, Rampe
Alternates: Biggs, Lockyer
Others: Shaw, Dick
Fullback Line
Starting 3: Johnson, T Richards, Malceski
Alternates: LRT, X Richards
Others: Marsh
Comment: Starting to age a little. May need to play Marsh more or bring in a 25 year old in 2015.

Trade Table
Mumford ? wants 4 years.
Grundy ? I don?t believe he has enough run, to fit in the HB line, and LRT slots in ahead of him in the FB line. He would also be holding up the development of Xavier and Lockyer
Package these 2 up and send to GWS for pick 1. Either use this pick for Boyd or the best inside midfielder we can get.
White ? wants to leave. Trade for the highest draft pick.
Bird ? good foot soldier but not elite
McGlynn ? on latest form and for team to evolve I can?t fit him into my best 30. Happy to trade for draft pick.
Shaw ? for team evolvement, I can?t fit him into my best 30. If he wants to play on and no trade interest, happy for him to play in the two?s in a development role.
Lamb ? can?t fit into my best 30. He may want to go back to Melbourne anyway. Look to trade for an inside midfielder.

We may need to trade in a developing ruckman. I really rate Griffin from Fremantle and the Gold Coast have a few. But I haven?t put too much thought into this yet.