Trade target discussion (merged thread)

[The Big Cat]

Kurt Tippets contract expires next year should throw it at Hogan and see if it sticks worth a shot

Hogan at this stage has a long way to go to match Tippett

[Melbourne_Blood]

Hogan at this stage has a long way to go to match Tippett

Sorry but I'd take Hogan over Tippett in a heartbeat!! Tippos a good player but Hogan is something else.

[Mug Punter]

I see that we were rated as a fail by Murdoch (spit)

I think that is a bit harsh. We got our two required targets and whilst we didn't get a lot for Bird we didn't give much up for Talia. And we managed to increase our points balance to help fund our drafting where we should be able to get our desired picks. Mills at 4 and Dunkley at 25 will see us with no carry over deficit.

It will now be interesting to see how many players we delist with five out (Goodes, Shaw, Pyke, Jetta and Bird) and at least five in (Sinclair, Talia, Sam, Mills, Dunkley). You'd think there will be at least one delisting....

[Auntie.Gerald]

i reckon we need to keep the depth of young guys we have now

low $ for Marsh, Robbo etc but their depth is imperative since we lost so many

the trade ban to $450k made our results even better in the trade this off season

- - - Updated - - -

Mug

what points are we on now with our picks and what happens if Mills is picked at no3 ?

[MattW]

Kurt Tippets contract expires next year should throw it at Hogan and see if it sticks worth a shot

Totally disagree. Kurt was one of our best three players in the second half of the year. He's versatile, proven, maturing well.

[WauchopeAnalyst]

Back online ????

[WauchopeAnalyst]

Why is my post stating 19hrs ago but I did it 5 minutes ago.

[i'm-uninformed2]

The future trading will work for us long term. No one will have a better view over the horizon of the value of future picks from the alameda so our ability to push and pull picks in current v future years should give us a competitive advantage.

[Auntie.Gerald]

Is the below correct ?

..............

we don't go into deficit on following scenarios

Mills-2 Dunkley-56
M-3 D-31
M-4 D-25
M-5 D-21

[Ludwig]

I think it's pretty clear now that we expect, or know, that Dunkley will nominate us and that we plan to draft him. As it works out, we should be able to draft Dunkley without going into deficit or perhaps a small deficit if he goes anywhere in the second round, even early. This is based on Mills being bid at #3. Anything after that will be a cakewalk. It is only an estimate, but I think that all our picks above 40 will be elevated by around 5 or 6 due to us along with GWS and Brisbane using multiple picks to acquire first round players. This should equate to around 250 additional points. So even with having to fork up 1787 value points for Mills if Melbourne bid for him, we should still have around 650 points to use for Dunkley, which equates to a pick 22. So we should be okay.

It appears that the academy clubs were well prepared on how the points system worked and played it well. I thought we might disguise our intentions a bit, but it seems that we instead planned to match any reasonable bid for Mills and Dunkley. In this regard, it seems that we played the game very well indeed, as did GWS and Brisbane. GC were in a weak position given their loss of players due to culture problems and lack of academy prospects.

If we take the trade period as a whole, we swapped Jetta for Sinclair and Bird for Talia. Jetta is a special talent and although his specific talents cannot be replaced, his place in the side will not be difficult to fill. Sinclair and Talia are just reasonable prospects at this stage but play in positions where we have a need. Adding O'Riordan, although speculative, gives us access to what seems to be the best young Irish footballer available. And we got the points we need to get Mills and Dunkley. I saw that AJ has been given a contract for next year, even before he has his surgery.

We didn't have to sacrifice future draft picks to freshen up our list with some good talent. We may not have everything quite right to challenge for a premiership, but we have a very good shot of staying in the top 4. Geelong and Collingwood may have done well in the trade period, but at the expense of the next 2 drafts. Only time will see how that strategy pay off.

[aguy]

Ludwig.
You're analysis is excellent as always. But one little thing I believe we did give up one draft pick from next year. Didn't we give the Bulldogs next years 4th draft pick ? Not a big deal I know

[ernie koala]

So...
In : Sinclair, Talia

Out : Jetta, Bird

Lots of pick swapping which nets a 235point profit..Better than a poke in the eye with a burnt stick, I guess.

Given our trade restrictions and salary cap constraints, not to bad I suppose..Though still surprised we couldn't do better for Bird.

But it's hard to grade until the draft is done and dusted.

If we can add Mills and Dunkley with out a 2016 deficit, then it's been a good result...Fingers crossed we don't have to deal with dodgy bids.

Others thoughts?

[Ludwig]

Ludwig.
You're analysis is excellent as always. But one little thing I believe we did give up one draft pick from next year. Didn't we give the Bulldogs next years 4th draft pick ? Not a big deal I know

We effectively traded that pick for the Bulldogs pick 69 this year, which is likely to be worth over 100 points by the end of the day, so a bit of extra insurance against cutting into our second round pick next year if Dunkley gets bid at the higher end of expectations. It was a nice gesture on the part of the Bulldogs. It was not dissimilar our giveaway of Bird. They actually gave us Talia plus a little on the side. Perhaps a bit of reciprocity for giving them Biggs for next to nothing. I hope it's not just an indication of Talia's real value.

[dimelb]

Why is my post stating 19hrs ago but I did it 5 minutes ago.

Are we operating on one of the time zones in the US?

[RogueSwan]

Sorry but I'd take Hogan over Tippett in a heartbeat!! Tippos a good player but Hogan is something else.

Totally disagree. Kurt was one of our best three players in the second half of the year. He's versatile, proven, maturing well.

I don't think it would matter who we have in the forward line if we can't give them good service. I mean we have Buddy, who on his day, is the best footballer in the league but we still haven't learnt to not bomb it to him when he is being double teamed. Or mids/wings seem to have trouble spotting the free man not wearing #23.
Back OT, I haven't felt as down about our trading this for a long time. In the past I have been pretty comfortable with not understanding the Club's thinking as they have a good track record but this year ?????? Only time will tell. Maybe I am down because Birdy was one of my favourites but the Swans and other teams don't seem to value him the way I do.