Is it already Killing Season 2016 (List Management) after 2 rounds

[CureTheSane]

I was thinking the same thing.
We have Parker, Kennedy and Hanners in the mid and with Mitchell we are one of the best going around.
Lose Mitchell and we have Heeney, Mills and Hewett ready to step us (not so sure about Jones there ATM) and they will need some room to make their mark.

I'd suggest that the club did try to lock in Micthell, and now that it looks as though there is a fair amount of interest in him, maybe the Swans are thinking they might get more than they consider him worth and are looking to fill some more needy gaps. I rank him 4th of the mids I listed above, so it's reasonable value for us.

As for Reid, and that he 'can play anywhere'. I just don't see that he can lock down a position 'anywhere'
He's a forward for me, and not the type we currently need.
He's never performed to his potential AFAIC.
When we offloaded White, I mentioned at the time that I'd rather look at moving Reid on.
Of course, I saw that as being a mistaken belief as White hasn't continued the form he showed just before he was traded, but then again, Reid hasn't done all that much either, so it's a lose/lose I guess.
Many here still see the potential in Reid. I wonder what his market value is? Not all that much I'd say, as it's all based on potential, and if the Swans haven't been able to develop him in to anything much, it's unlikely he will do so at most other teams.

[Mug Punter]

We may also be planning on trading future draft picks. If there are no stand out academy players then we might be happy trading out both this years and next years first round picks.

There is nobody that stands out for us this year. I could well see us only drafting one player and using upgrades for the rest of our selections and trading out our Pick 2 for next year to get some points in the bank.

Having said that, if we had a standout for next year you could be damn sure we'd have heard about it from Eddie and the like so I would not be surprised if we are a bit light on next year as well. Having said that I think that 2018 when the first really good batch of kids come through will be a cracker, the kids that we have been academy coaching from the cradle. It shows in the good representation of Sydney Boys (well from our academy anyway, GWS have a big donut) in this years Under 16 squad. I'm pretty good mates with a guy who has kids in the academy and he reckons the next few years are just miles ahead of where his young lads were at the same age. It's exciting!

[Mug Punter]

I was thinking the same thing.
We have Parker, Kennedy and Hanners in the mid and with Mitchell we are one of the best going around.
Lose Mitchell and we have Heeney, Mills and Hewett ready to step us (not so sure about Jones there ATM) and they will need some room to make their mark.

I'd suggest that the club did try to lock in Micthell, and now that it looks as though there is a fair amount of interest in him, maybe the Swans are thinking they might get more than they consider him worth and are looking to fill some more needy gaps. I rank him 4th of the mids I listed above, so it's reasonable value for us.

As for Reid, and that he 'can play anywhere'. I just don't see that he can lock down a position 'anywhere'
He's a forward for me, and not the type we currently need.
He's never performed to his potential AFAIC.
When we offloaded White, I mentioned at the time that I'd rather look at moving Reid on.
Of course, I saw that as being a mistaken belief as White hasn't continued the form he showed just before he was traded, but then again, Reid hasn't done all that much either, so it's a lose/lose I guess.
Many here still see the potential in Reid. I wonder what his market value is? Not all that much I'd say, as it's all based on potential, and if the Swans haven't been able to develop him in to anything much, it's unlikely he will do so at most other teams.

The reality is that if we have given him our best shot, and I reckon we have, and if a Hawthorn come a knocking and give him an extra $600 - 800K over four years then we have no chance. And I can see the Hawks going in hard for him as they have some massive shoes to fill there in the next couple of years. I can see him being a really important recruit for them and I can also see them being prepared to pay overs for him.

On the plus side there is no way the Hawks will be prepared to see him go to the PSD as another club like Carlton would snap him up and Mitchell would probably cop that too. So it means we should get a fair trade for him and I quite like the idea of a third tall with a fair bit of upside and in exactly the right age bracket.

[707]

So we are linked to KPF Wood, gun mid O,Meara, KPD McDonald, running HB Tuohy.

Reckon if we get all four we could challenge for next years flag ...... but then we'd have to be letting some of our better ranked players go.

Really is an early start to silly season. It may be that in the end Mitchell and Reid are re-signed and we don't grab anyone significant this trade period.

What do we really need to add to our list to improve?
If Reid comes good then maybe he is the KPF we need given that Tippo is primarily now a ruckman. Do we need Wood in that case?
Do we let Mitchell go due to an excess of inside mids and if we did would it come back to bite us Hawks/JPK style? How would the Hawks manage to get the trade done for Mitchell given their first pick is likely in the too far out 15-18 range?
O'Meara is elite so wouldn't mind rolling the dice there, adds another dimension to our midfield. Mitchell would need to go so we could afford O'Meara and get the trade done.
Is Tuohy being mentioned purely because he is out of contract and Carlton is a possible Mitchell destination.
Is McDonald really needed at this point in time?

Regardless of rumours, I trust the recruiting staff to get us the right outcome once again, they are legends!

[CureTheSane]

Also Hurley

[liz]

Swans deny interest in Roo Mason Wood - AFL.com.au

But not Wood, according to the above. I am glad. I think we have enough up and coming talent at the club already. Some we've seen, but I am pretty bullish on a handful not yet seen at senior level. They're not all ready yet (and won't be this year) but they are putting together performance after performance at reserves level, and I'd like to think the club is giving them the message that there will be opportunities next year and beyond for the likes of Dawson and Davis (as two who could play a similar role to Wood).

I think Wood looks like an exciting young talent for North, but I fully expect he will stay there.

[AnnieH]

Wood's manager bleating.
We're going to hear a lot of "XYZ is in talks with Sydney" from the managers. They seem to think that it will get their player more money.
At least we're rated as the #1 "go to" team.

[ugg]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-07-15/rival-clubs-circling-big-swan-toby-nankervis

Clubs after Nankervis.

[Ludwig]

Rival clubs circling big Swan Toby Nankervis - AFL.com.au

Clubs after Nankervis.

I haven't posted this before, but I was thinking that we could let Nanka go if the right deal arises. I think he will develop into a decent ruckman and already prefer him to Sinclair. I think it's pretty obvious that our primary ruck combo for the next few years will be Naismith and Tippett. Sinclair is on a 4 year deal and is good enough as a backup. If Reid gets fit and resigns, then he is quite capable of playing a relief ruck role. If we traded Nanka we could pick up a mature age state league ruckman in the rookie draft. There are also a couple of prospects within the Giants academy system that they will probably let slip through this year. I don't think we need anyone all that special for our 4th in line ruckman.

We don't seem to have any great academy prospects coming through these next 2 drafts. The draft pool looks okay to me this year and the talk is that it's looking good for next year as well. I wouldn't mind getting into a good draft position the next couple of years and pick up some fresh talent.

Towers has made the headlines for the wrong reasons again. He was also being 'circled' by AFL clubs according the journos. I hope he hasn't diminished his value by his poor decision making becoming highlighted.

Mitchell, Towers and Nankervis are our top trade out options this year. I would trade Hiscox for next to nothing or delist him. Same with Xav, but might consider redrafting him to our rookie list if there are no better options with our last list spot.

[Mug Punter]

I haven't posted this before, but I was thinking that we could let Nanka go if the right deal arises. I think he will develop into a decent ruckman and already prefer him to Sinclair. I think it's pretty obvious that our primary ruck combo for the next few years will be Naismith and Tippett. Sinclair is on a 4 year deal and is good enough as a backup. If Reid gets fit and resigns, then he is quite capable of playing a relief ruck role. If we traded Nanka we could pick up a mature age state league ruckman in the rookie draft. There are also a couple of prospects within the Giants academy system that they will probably let slip through this year. I don't think we need anyone all that special for our 4th in line ruckman.

We don't seem to have any great academy prospects coming through these next 2 drafts. The draft pool looks okay to me this year and the talk is that it's looking good for next year as well. I wouldn't mind getting into a good draft position the next couple of years and pick up some fresh talent.

Towers has made the headlines for the wrong reasons again. He was also being 'circled' by AFL clubs according the journos. I hope he hasn't diminished his value by his poor decision making becoming highlighted.

Mitchell, Towers and Nankervis are our top trade out options this year. I would trade Hiscox for next to nothing or delist him. Same with Xav, but might consider redrafting him to our rookie list if there are no better options with our last list spot.

I'd like to see Nankervis held onto as I think having four decent rucks is a good position to be in. Plus as we all know ruckman take longer to develop. I just wish he could get a bit more mobile, maybe we need to get him on the running track and slim him down a bit.

If Mitchell does stay, and I tend to think he is good as gone, then the chances are we'd trade Towers as we like to bring in an external player each year. I still think a KPD could be in the radar despite me seeing this less as a weakness now.

I know I've said this before but we've got some difficult decisions re the rookie upgrades. Papley is a certainty and I saw enough of Marsh to say I'd like to him on the senior list. Then there is Newman, who I am really looking forward to seeing tomorrow. Do we invest all that time and let another club grab him? Not our style really. Then there is Foote banging on the door but we could keep him as a third year rookie. Either way you can well see us upgrading three.

In terms of outs I'd say Xav, Ted, TDx and Hiscox have their papers marked already. That would allow us to draft Pick 1, trade Pick 2 for a future pick in 2017 - I've flagged this before as an option and nobody can tell me why we can't do this reading the AFL Rules.

I can then see us trading one player our for a player in, possibly with the second round pick as a makeweight.

I think you are right re the Academy for this and next years draft based on the lack of noise and also the representation on the Under 18 squad, Allies side and general results. 2018 may well be a decent crop and we might want to forward trade a pick for 2018 next year. I see from the Footy Record that Nick Blakey, son of John, was the NSW-ACT Player of the Under 16 Tournament.

We've had a year of real revolution to our list in 2016, I can see us going back to more of a evolving mode for a couple of years.

[Ludwig]

Although I have lots of objections to the new bidding system, there is a real benefit to the value points system in that it creates a currency by which to measure the value of player for trade purposes. Like the A$ is the currency for paying a salary, Value Points is the currency for getting a player to your club, or a the standard of measurement for valuing a trade or draft pick. The bidding system creates a real marketplace in which value points are exchanged for players, so it has a real world usage and not just a hypothetical one.

I've been using it to evaluate possible trades. For example, I rate Tom Mitchell about a pick 8 (it's just my opinion, others will rate him differently). What I'm saying is that I think that would be fair exchange value in a trade for him, for both clubs. I think list managers are using this system as well. So that puts a value of around 1500 points for Tom. So a trade that comes out with close to that result for a trade of Tom to Hawthorn might be Tom plus our second round pick (this year or next) for Hawthorn's first rounders from this year and next. Having 2 picks in the teens this year and next works for me and the loss of Tom wouldn't hurt our list that much, despite him being a high quality player. I think we come out a winner, and perhaps Hawthorn win as well, as they get that inside midfielder that will sorely need once Mitchell, Hodge and Burgoyne retire.

[bloodspirit]

My current thinking is that Teddy, Benny and Derickx are the most likely outs at the end of the season. In addition big question marks over AJ - depends on how his surgery goes, perhaps back to rookie list is best case scenario for him?

Beyond that: X? I don't mind Ludwig's idea of delisting and the rookieing him but I trust our list management team to make the right call.
Is Galloway at risk of being delisted? On the one hand he is a long term project. On the other hand, has he shown enough?
Personally, as of last night (and not just because of his late decision) I am minded to trade Towers out if we can get something decent for him. He certainly has assets and may yet develop into a good (but not great) player. But he also has deficits (like decision making) and is not young and I think we are better off reinvesting in some other youth. That said, I agree that he seems to be in favour with our (admittedly very savvy) coaches and list management so maybe he will be with us for a while yet.
Another one is Melican: he is a project player and one we have hopes for. However we haven't seen or heard that much to encourage us recently and he keeps being injured. Is he quietly and promisingly developing, albeit stymied by injuries, or simply not coming on as much as we hoped? I am not informed enough to judge.
Finally, might we consider trading out Nankervis? I would be happy with this if we could get some value for him. But also happy to keep him if we can't as he is a good footballer, just not as useful as a fit and in-form Naismith.

As for the rest, it would seem harsh to de-list any of them but who knows with trades. I'm agnostic about trading Mitchell. I certainly rate him highly but if we can get something even better in a role where we have less depth then I trust our list managers to make the right call. He definitely is worth a lot. Not only is he a ball magnet with sharp hand passing skills and quick decision making, he also backs himself to score etc and gets some useful goals (even though sometimes I think his having a ping is not the best option) and tackles a lot and has learned to be a part of our team defence. Players like Heeney and Mills are more versatile, multidimensional and skilful and have greater potential but Mitchell is a bird in the hand worth a lot.

[Mug Punter]

Although I have lots of objections to the new bidding system, there is a real benefit to the value points system in that it creates a currency by which to measure the value of player for trade purposes. Like the A$ is the currency for paying a salary, Value Points is the currency for getting a player to your club, or a the standard of measurement for valuing a trade or draft pick. The bidding system creates a real marketplace in which value points are exchanged for players, so it has a real world usage and not just a hypothetical one.

I've been using it to evaluate possible trades. For example, I rate Tom Mitchell about a pick 8 (it's just my opinion, others will rate him differently). What I'm saying is that I think that would be fair exchange value in a trade for him, for both clubs. I think list managers are using this system as well. So that puts a value of around 1500 points for Tom. So a trade that comes out with close to that result for a trade of Tom to Hawthorn might be Tom plus our second round pick (this year or next) for Hawthorn's first rounders from this year and next. Having 2 picks in the teens this year and next works for me and the loss of Tom wouldn't hurt our list that much, despite him being a high quality player. I think we come out a winner, and perhaps Hawthorn win as well, as they get that inside midfielder that will sorely need once Mitchell, Hodge and Burgoyne retire.

I think it has provided a defacto currency for players in terms of trades. Certainly it provides somewhat of a range to value players. And it should given the work put into that system.

Having said we seem to prefer to trade want away players for a player who fill a need in our list with the Jetta trade being a good example. It makes sense really as there's much less risk with getting a player with 30-60 games on the clock that a pick. Plus clubs don't like trading first rounders and it doesn't dilute our list.

If you look at our list, we are pretty well sticked for Rucks and Mids even if Mitchell leaves. Assuming we do get a player in I suspect it will either be a third tall or a KPD and they'd probably cost around the $500K mark which is what Tom is on.

Despite Buddy's great form he doesn't get a lot of help given that Tippet plays a lot in the ruck these days. I think they were hoping Towers would be that man but he's struggling as is Isaac recently and Luke will spend less time up forward if Tom leaves.

Down back you have Reg who is in career best form along with Rampe who is taking on the third tall with aplomb. That leaves Aliir and Talia as potentially our third and fourth KPD options along with Laidler who I am sure will be there come finals.

In many ways you could say that a third marking forward could well be our priority and despite our protestations I think if Wood has a good end to the year we'll be in for him or someone similar

[Ludwig]

Is Galloway at risk of being delisted? On the one hand he is a long term project. On the other hand, has he shown enough?
Personally, as of last night (and not just because of his late decision) I am minded to trade Towers out if we can get something decent for him. He

The Earth is more likely to be hit by an asteroid before Galloway is ready to play AFL football.

[707]

AFL website running the ruler over all rookie lists and making calls. They have us elevating Newman and Papley then re-rookie'ing all the rest.

Looks like very little movement on our list this year :-)