Is it already Killing Season 2016 (List Management) after 2 rounds

[Maltopia]

I think we are now (surprisingly) looking very good with all the youngsters after the early doom and gloom. We have Tippet, Reid, Heeney, Tahlia, Robinson, Laider and BJ out of the team that beat Geelong at SS. Benny was out of the team too, but I don't really see him being part of the team next year.

Re GWS, what have they done so well with their recruiting and trading compared to Gold Coast who has had the same concessions?

[Mug Punter]

GWS took a markedly different approach to GCS

Gold Coast went after elite players like Ablett and questionable signings like Campbell Brown.

GWS largely mined the draft with a couple of astute but still quite young developing elite players (Ward, Scully, Palmer) and accepted they'd cop two to three years of hidings. They then had some serious trade currency by the end of their third season and we able to start cashing in their kids, and I think it also needs noting given the drug culture at Gold Coast that they seem to have gotten that part better too. Out goes Boyd, Adams, Tyson and in comes Shaw, Griffin, Patful plus picks. Then they trade out future picks last draft so they have three first rounders this year and will probably also get the First Pick from the Bombers as they start to trade out to get their list down to 38 truly elite players. Not to mention they have a blue chip recruitment zone in the Riverina that goes totally against what the Academy System was designed for.

Then there were the concessions given. The common view is that GWS got a better rub but they were q

[Mug Punter]

GWS took a markedly different approach to GCS

Gold Coast went after elite players like Ablett and questionable signings like Campbell Brown.

GWS largely mined the draft with a couple of astute but still quite young developing elite players (Ward, Scully, Palmer) and accepted they'd cop two to three years of hidings. They then had some serious trade currency by the end of their third season and we able to start cashing in their kids, and I think it also needs noting given the drug culture at Gold Coast that they seem to have gotten that part better too. Out goes Boyd, Adams, Tyson and in comes Shaw, Griffin, Patful plus picks. Then they trade out future picks last draft so they have three first rounders this year and will probably also get the First Pick from the Bombers as they start to trade out to get their list down to 38 truly elite players. Not to mention they have a blue chip recruitment zone in the Riverina that goes totally against what the Academy System was designed for.

Then there were the concessions given. The common view is that GWS got a better rub but they were q

I had an additional post but got timed out. Essntially GWS got about 4 extra first round picks but GCS had first crack at free agent stars. Essentially I think GWS have just done a better job

[liz]

Gold Coast have also had a rotten run with injury over three years now, especially to top quality players like O'Meara and Swallow.

[Mug Punter]

Gold Coast have also had a rotten run with injury over three years now, especially to top quality players like O'Meara and Swallow.

This is true and they really need to re-sign them but I can't see them staying if they have any football ambition.

At the moment Gold Coast will be looking at more than a mini-rebuild, it will be wholesale surgery.

They're currently looking at two first rounders (picks 4 and 9 at present) plus four second rounders (21,22,25 and 28 at present). Both O'Meara and Swallow would have to be worth single figure first round picks and you'd think they'd want at least one at this year's draft. They do have a couple of very good academy kids I believe (Jack Bowes is rated as an early first rounder and may well go before 4)

They'd better hope Rocket is the right man for the job, I think he is actually.

[Mug Punter]

Of course GWS has none of these issues and good on them, they've built a fantasy football list very well.

Yes, they are currently $600K over their cap for next year but if you have a look at their list they have nothing to worry about.

For starters their list currently stands at 42 so I think we can safely assume they try and get down to 39-40 for next year so that will largely sort out any cap issues.

Let's assume they go for four draftees, one upgrade and seven/eight out.

They currently have the following draft picks based on the current ladder - 8, 12, 13, 30 and 34.

I can see them trading to get the Number 1 Pick and I reckon they'll get them. Whoever it is will want at least a couple of gun players (let's say either Hoskin-Eliott or Tomlinson plus Jack Steele). They might need to give up one of their second rounders to sweeten the deal.

That leaves six players they can then trade out for value in future picks plus at least one second rounder. Players I could see as tradable are as follows:
* Stewart (Age 22, Draft Pick 27, 18 Games)
* McCarthy (Age 21, Draft Pick 14, 21 Games)
* Pickett (Age 19, Draft Pick 4, zero games)
Jake Barrett, Tim Mohr, Finlayson and McKenna might have some value too. At the very least you'd think they'll get a first rounder and second rounder from the following year given that they'd throw a second round draft pick into the mix.

And from my calcs that would see my GWS List of 2017 have 26 first round draft picks in their squad.

We ain't seen nothing yet.

[Ludwig]

GSW have list size and salary cap concessions through 2018. It's hard to say if they will try to reduce their senior list this draft period. They can still carry 44 senior players next year. It will probably depend on who they trade and particularly who wants to be traded.

There are 5 academy players (Mutch, Settlefield, McCreadie, Sproule and Perryman) who could all go in the top 25. So I think they will take them all and look to let go at least 5 current players. I doubt either of their 2 rookies will be elevated, although both have been this year due to LTI.

McCarthy, Mohr, Dawson Simpson are the first 3 that i would unload. Then it would be who wants out: Perhaps, Hoskin-Elliot, Tomlinson and Stewart will want out for more playing opportunities. Steele is out of contract and has also been mentioned. They have so many mids that they will probably let him go it he wants out.

I would take Finlayson for a 3rd round pick, but now that Aliir is doing so well, it doesn't matter so much, as he might just as likely struggle to break into the Swans' lineup as the Giants.

Eventually the salary cap will bring them back down to earth.

[Maltopia]

I mentioned earlier in this thread that I did wonder about giving up Membrey and pick 39 for 37. Goodes only had another year realistically back then, so he only needed to wait out another year in the 2s and a spot would open up for the taking. He has done really well for the Saints this year and is starting to look like one that got away, especially if Heeney moves to the midfield in a couple of years.

[caj23]

I mentioned earlier in this thread that I did wonder about giving up Membrey and pick 39 for 37. Goodes only had another year realistically back then, so he only needed to wait out another year in the 2s and a spot would open up for the taking. He has done really well for the Saints this year and is starting to look like one that got away, especially if Heeney moves to the midfield in a couple of years.

Stuff him, he wasn't willing to back himself and took the easy option with a cellar dweller. As an aside he's a flat track bully anyway, his bags have come against poor teams and has gone missing against quality opposition every time.

[liz]

I mentioned earlier in this thread that I did wonder about giving up Membrey and pick 39 for 37. Goodes only had another year realistically back then, so he only needed to wait out another year in the 2s and a spot would open up for the taking. He has done really well for the Saints this year and is starting to look like one that got away, especially if Heeney moves to the midfield in a couple of years.

He was out of contract and was lured by the Saints with promises of senior opportunities and a pretty fat contract (compared to what the Swans would have been willing to pay). It just shows that it is hard to stockpile decent quality players in the reserves if you are a team near the top of the ladder.

[Auntie.Gerald]

I think Rose or Abd Davis have potential to play a similar role to Membrey but Membrey has a pretty awesome kick him

For now Rohan is playing the mid tall role and doing well

[Ludwig]

He was out of contract and was lured by the Saints with promises of senior opportunities and a pretty fat contract (compared to what the Swans would have been willing to pay). It just shows that it is hard to stockpile decent quality players in the reserves if you are a team near the top of the ladder.

And a little reminder of what is in store for the Giants in the coming years as their salary cap concessions come to an end.

Membrey might find a spot in our side now, but probably not if Reid were fit. And if you want to see someone who can kick goals on a regular basis from outside 50 (besides Buddy), Jordan Dawson is coming to your town. He's beginning to look the find of the 2015 draft.

[mcs]

And a little reminder of what is in store for the Giants in the coming years as their salary cap concessions come to an end.

Membrey might find a spot in our side now, but probably not if Reid were fit. And if you want to see someone who can kick goals on a regular basis from outside 50 (besides Buddy), Jordan Dawson is coming to your town. He's beginning to look the find of the 2015 draft.

I was impressed by Dawson on Saturday in the ressies game - there really is something about him and I like how he is developing. Another good pre-season and he will be well and truly knocking on the door for seniors in 2017.

[Mug Punter]

GSW have list size and salary cap concessions through 2018. It's hard to say if they will try to reduce their senior list this draft period. They can still carry 44 senior players next year. It will probably depend on who they trade and particularly who wants to be traded.

There are 5 academy players (Mutch, Settlefield, McCreadie, Sproule and Perryman) who could all go in the top 25. So I think they will take them all and look to let go at least 5 current players. I doubt either of their 2 rookies will be elevated, although both have been this year due to LTI.

McCarthy, Mohr, Dawson Simpson are the first 3 that i would unload. Then it would be who wants out: Perhaps, Hoskin-Elliot, Tomlinson and Stewart will want out for more playing opportunities. Steele is out of contract and has also been mentioned. They have so many mids that they will probably let him go it he wants out.

I would take Finlayson for a 3rd round pick, but now that Aliir is doing so well, it doesn't matter so much, as he might just as likely struggle to break into the Swans' lineup as the Giants.

Eventually the salary cap will bring them back down to earth.

I'd imagine they'll try and get down asap, it's the easiest way to get their cap under control and now their list is "grown up" they can make some firm decisions. If you are right with your academy picks then they could well get them along with Pick 1 and then really unload. They'd almost have enough points for those five from their existing three other first rounders plus their second rounder. I guess there could be an opportunity for us there with a Finlayson type, another NSW boy would be good, provided we don't pay too much. I'm starting to agree with you that we may not need to go for an established KPD and that we should just continue with developing the next generation.

The salary cap will bring them back to an extent but players will often stay for unders when they are winning multiple flags.

[Maltopia]

I've read a few posts here where it is suggested GWS will trade for the #1 pick. Whilst they have the means to do so, I don't think it would be wise. The reason being that there is already so much noise about GWS's list and how they have had so many picks (number 1 as well in 2011, 2012 and 2013). If they trade for the number 1 again, it will just lead to more calls about the Academy and concessions being broken.

We did nothing wrong in recruiting Tippet and Franklin, and look where that got us with the COLA and then the unfair trading ban when we also lost Mumford and Malceski over the same period?

Can you imagine what would happen to GWS concessions if they got another number 1 pick even though it is within the rules, whilst finishing in the top 8/4/2 or going deep into the finals?

Look at what Macquire did to Brisbane's salary cap after they won their three premierships for example.